Exactly. And more importantly, there are a lot of people who know this. Not all, obviously, but enough to give me pause.
I think it’s time to accept that if Trump wants to run, he will be nominated, and if he is nominated, he’ll probably win.
He won’t get more votes. He won’t even get more Electoral votes (initially). He’ll get more Electoral votes once certain states have “found” enough votes to throw away to make a difference.
This depends a great deal on who Trump is running against. If Trump stays in good health and wants the nomination, it is hard to see the party opposing it.
This article is by generals suggesting that there could be problems if Trump loses the election. However, 1. At least the militias are well regulated and 2. I am in Canada. Have a big house if any Dopers have a sudden need to leave. 
>Insert joke about refugees from south of the border<
The really sad part is, that might not even be a joke.
Well gee whiz, why should the Democrats even run any candidates then? Let’s just roll over and accept our eternal MAGA overlords.
“Probably.” Surely one could fight back?
Trump already lost once. I do not think he will beat a top-notch candidate. The bigger problem is that these are always in short supply. Is Buttigieg or Harris or AOC really the best possible choice?
I think Buttigieg or Elizabeth Warren would likely be great presidents. But I doubt that either are electable these days.
I’ve said for many years now, that the most electable Democrat is one we haven’t actually heard much about yet.
Any established politician is already the focus of coordinated Republican smear campaigns, and is therefore less likely to win a general election. What the Dems really need is to find someone in the background who has what it takes to win the election, and be a good President, and then have AOC et al. basically run interference for them right up until the final nomination. At that point, the GOP apparatus won’t (hopefully) have enough time to demonize them sufficiently that even nominal Democratic voters are talking about how they “just don’t like” the candidate.
I don’t know who that person is, nor do I know if the Democrats as a party have enough discipline to pull this off, but I’m pretty sure this is what it will take to win.
I like your unorthodox thinking, but what happens if AOC / Warren / etc. actually start racking up the primary wins? If they get swapped out by the DNC at the last moment for a shadow candidate, Democrat voters would scream bloody murder about smoke-filled backroom dealings, get turned off from the whole democratic process altogether, and likely stay home on Election Day.
I’m not saying it is going to be easy, I’m saying it’s going to be necessary.
What you worry about is part of the “Party Discipline” I mentioned.
AOC et al. would need to be willing to withdraw from the race, even if they are a favorite, and publicly endorse the Unexpected Candidate strongly enough to bring their own supporters on board with the new candidate.
You’re talking about having AOC “run interference” for a new Obama when AOC already is a new Obama.
I dunno … if the roles were reversed and the Democrats were the ones running the smear campaigns, I could see this plan working with Republican voters because they walk in lockstep when party leadership tell them to, but the Democratic coalition is IMO way too fractured and independent-minded to go along with what otherwise looks like a brazen steal from an outsider’s perspective.
I understand your point, but AOC has already peaked too early. The Republicans have had several years now to smear her as being “stupid”, a “commie” and what have you. As much as you or I would like her as the President, there’s just too much “She’s a leftist extremist!” for that to happen under the current conditions in the US.
I’ll just re-quote myself: “I’m not saying it is going to be easy, I’m saying it’s going to be necessary.”
So exactly like Obama in 2008, in other words.
No, not at all. In 2008, Obama wasn’t the focus of the major GOP two minutes of hate. Everyone expected Hillary Clinton to be the Dem nominee for President.
One of the reasons Obama actually won the general election is precisely because of what I’m talking about: he surprised even the Republicans by winning the nomination. Twenty years of vilifying Hillary Clinton just got tossed right out the window. They didn’t have time to (successfully) pull that shit with Obama, even with the Birther crap.
What I want is for the Democrats to recognize this, and build it into their plans.
Because the Republican are already building it into their plans. . Look at how much effort they’re putting into defaming AOC and “The Squad”. They’re not just doing that for the laughs.
You and I must not have lived through the same 2008.
Democrats don’t need to be picking nominees on the basis of “what will the Republicans think of them?” Joe Manchin could be the 2024 nominee and Republicans would paint him as a radical socialist.