What are the chances that the Korean War will reignite?
WRS
5%
120%
Opps. Meant 10-20%.
I’d say very very slight. The US is certainly not in the mood to fight another war, and North Korea actually has a decent army, unlike Iraq and the Taliban.
That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if W decides it would be a good idea to blow the shit out of NK’s nuclear program with a couple cruise missiles.
As long as half our army is occupying Iraq, there is zero chance that the US president will decide to invade North Korea on a whim. That doesn’t mean that North Korea won’t try some crazy stunt that forces war. However, while the US and South Korea don’t want war since it would devastate South Korea, the war would almost certainly (95+%) result in the conquest of North Korea, the destruction of the North Korean regime, and the reunification of the peninsula. Since starting a war would be signing their own death warrants, I doubt Kim Jong Il and his cronies will intentionally start a war. I guess the odds of accidental war within the next 10 years are 5%, intentional war by North Korea less than 10%, and intentional war by the US less than 5%.
What makes you say that? I know they have tons of soldiers (about 1.2 million) but so did Saddam in Gulf war I and that war was only a month long and completely distroyed the Iraqi military. N. Korea only spends about $5 billion on military hardware a year, i think alot of it is decade old soviet equiptment.
I’d put the chances at 25%, depending on how Kim Jong Il acts. I guess if he can get a non aggression pact there will be no war.
0%.
There will be no war. Kim Jong Il likes ruling his poor little country. And a poor little country is better than no country at all.
You might want to read a book called Red Phoenix by Larry Bond, it deals with that very subject. It’s fiction, of course, and about 10 years out of date, but a very good read anyway.
Great book Weirddave. Also it might be useful to mention that Larry Bond designed the original Harpoon game (the miniature version not the PC one) and also collaborated with Tom Clancy on his book Red Storm Rising.
Actually “Korean War II” has already happened, back in the 50’s. The first was in 1871.
Yes, Korea could go off at any time. It is a rookie mistake to believe that we can predict the behavior of the DPRK. (It seems the experts can always predict past events well however.)
In any case, if the NKs are boxed into a corner and decide to go South, this is how I see it playing out.
A terrorism/subversion offensive aimed at the ROK. A period of buildup of (scarce) resources. The Chinese will hear of this of course.
Then, the Chinese (surprise) will stab the NKs in the back with an invasion. The ROKS and Americans will support with airpower to keep the NKs pinned into the wrong end of the country.
Why? A Korean war would be a disaster for the Chinese. It would increase American influence in the region. A Korea unified under the DPRK the same. BUT… a Korea under the ROK flag would be stable and acceptable. Such a Korea would kick out the Americans and fall (according to the Chinese world view) naturally under the sway of the Chinese sphere of influence.
Will it happen? Dunno. Maybe 10%.
I’d pretty much agree with the idea that if the NK got to arsy, the Chinese would either step in or have some serious words. A war in Korea would be bad for China.
Technically though, if i remember correctly, it wouldn’t actually be a new war just a “resumption of hostilities” - i’m pretty certain that they never actually got round to signing a peace treaty…
Not to sound mean, but sometimes I wish North Korea would do something stupid and then be wiped out by China or whoever will march against them - ending the Korean War, reuniting the Koreas, and delivering the North Koreans from their suffering.
I agree that China would be very interested in an end to the war - it will really put the pressure on the US to move out of South Korea, allowing China to increase its sphere of influence.
I also agree that North Korea is too unpredictable for us to determine what will happen in the future. Darn tinpot dictatorships.
Thanks, all!
WRS