[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
Yes, I was, and I inadvertently used percentages instead of delegates because of the way it’s listed at RCP . The table above shows delegates, and the second table shows percentages, but they’re not labeled.
That brings up another question I have, though. How does Clinton leading in North Carolina not make sense? I mean, I understand why Illinois, Arkansas, and New York went the way they did. But how do people predict the other states without any poll data?
[/QUOTE]
In some cases, to put it bluntly, they’re going by racial demographics. Obama is winning 90+% of the black vote in virtually every state.
[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic]
In some cases, to put it bluntly, they’re going by racial demographics. Obama is winning 90+% of the black vote in virtually every state.
[/QUOTE]
I figured that, but there’s got to be more than that. I’ve never been to Idaho or Wisconsin, but I don’t imagine them as the types of states that have a significant black population.
[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
I figured that, but there’s got to be more than that. I’ve never been to Idaho or Wisconsin, but I don’t imagine them as the types of states that have a significant black population.
[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Maeglin]
Wisconsin is 6% black, Idaho is 0.7%.
[/QUOTE]
Exactly, and argument that Obama will only get the minority votes is full of straw. If he does well in Miss and they have a heavy black population so what. He kicked ass in predominently white states as well. What could that mean Geraldine?
[QUOTE=Maeglin]
Wisconsin is 6% black, Idaho is 0.7%.
[/QUOTE]
He won Wisconsin by 3 times, and Idaho by 885 times those percentages, respectively. There’s obviously more going on than just people that happen to have dark skin voting for Obama. My question is, what is it?
This question is probably parallel to, “What makes some states red and some blue?”, although I’m admittedly clueless on that, too.
My zipcode (which maps fairly well to my voting precinct) in Arlingon, VA is only about 2.5% black, but my precinct went almost 64% for Obama.
Something I heard about previously, but haven’t heard about lately, is how “uneducated” white voters favor Clinton. In Ohio, apparently, this was a difference-maker. I’m not sure why that is; I’d have thought that sort of demographic would be more prevalent in the South. Perhaps an Ohioan could illuminate me.
[QUOTE=Santo Rugger]
How does Clinton leading in North Carolina not make sense? I mean, I understand why Illinois, Arkansas, and New York went the way they did. But how do people predict the other states without any poll data?
[/QUOTE]
In the case of NC at least, the expectation of an Obama win is based on poll data.
[QUOTE=An Arky]
Something I heard about previously, but haven’t heard about lately, is how “uneducated” white voters favor Clinton. In Ohio, apparently, this was a difference-maker. I’m not sure why that is; I’d have thought that sort of demographic would be more prevalent in the South. Perhaps an Ohioan could illuminate me.
[/QUOTE]
Ohio (and PA) are factory states. Factories produce a lot of low-skilled jobs that don’t require bachelor degrees. There you go.
[QUOTE=you with the face]
Ohio (and PA) are factory states. Factories produce a lot of low-skilled jobs that don’t require bachelor degrees. There you go.
[/QUOTE]
Kinda sorta. What lies between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh is one giant ass field. Same results, different turnpike.
[QUOTE=stolichnaya]
I am picturing rolling hills with row upon row of bright pink asses stretching to the horizon.
[/QUOTE]
Maybe they should change their slogan from “You’ve got a friend in Pennsylvania” to “Come pick yourself a piece of ass in Pennsylvania.”
That brings up another question I have, though. How does Clinton leading in North Carolina not make sense? I mean, I understand why Illinois, Arkansas, and New York went the way they did. But how do people predict the other states without any poll data?
[/QUOTE]
I’ve spent my whole life in North Carolina. Democrats in the state tend to be African-American or well-educated whites, both groups that skew towards Obama. Your working-class white voters, who in states like Michigan might be Clinton supporters, tend to be staunch Republicans. There’s not a labor vote to speak of here.
Also, anecdotally, I seldom hear a kind word about Clinton around here from Democrats, Republicans, or independents. There’s a huge swath of folks from across the political spectrum who, rightly or wrongly, reeeally don’t like her.
[QUOTE=burundi]
I’ve spent my whole life in North Carolina. Democrats in the state tend to be African-American or well-educated whites, both groups that skew towards Obama. Your working-class white voters, who in states like Michigan might be Clinton supporters, tend to be staunch Republicans. There’s not a labor vote to speak of here.
Also, anecdotally, I seldom hear a kind word about Clinton around here from Democrats, Republicans, or independents. There’s a huge swath of folks from across the political spectrum who, rightly or wrongly, reeeally don’t like her.
[/QUOTE]
Yep. Especially since the population centers - Greensboro, the Triad - are filled with young university types. Charlotte has UNC-Ch, which isn’t a lot, but it makes up the difference with yuppies and upper middle class whites.
