The difference is that the Idaho militia is trying to overthrow its own domestic government. The Iraqi insurgents can argue they are trying to evict an occupying power and overthrow a regime which is collaborating with it.
Who says the majority of Iraqis want the installed government to disband? And by that I’m not talking about Ayad Allawi and friends, am talking about the structures which greatly enhance the average persons life there, who says they want that government gone?
Except that the current government is the internationally recognized government of Iraq. You may personally not think it is (I’m not saying you do, I’m just saying…), and the Iraqi insurgents might not think it is, but that’s not what matters. We’re talking about legitimacy in the eyes of the international community here, and if most nations PLUS the UN say a government is legitimate, then it is.
Because most of us don’t want the insurgents to win. We understand that if the insurgents take over there will be a bloodbath in Iraq. But the choice isn’t just between “support the decisions the American government is making” and “let the insurgents win”. Many of us are asking for a third option; “recognize that mistakes made by the American government are helping the insurgents and fix those mistakes”.
That’s what we find out Jan 30, I guess. I don’t think anyone has any realistic, accurate numbers on what the Iraqi people support. Most of them probably don’t know, especially since the candidate lists aren’t out yet. From every source I’ve seen, the election is pretty much up in the air - whether it will happen, whether it will be legitimate, whether America accepts the results… the general consensus is that there is a slight edge towards Chalabi & co - though it is just as likely to be a theocratic-based turnout.
Or so we hope.
Who are “the insurgents”? Which candidates do they support? Unless you know something I don’t, we have no clue.
To the extent that we’ve heard from them, the insurgents don’t want ANYONE to win. They don’t want the elections to be held. We also know the insurgency is mostly Sunni. We can pretty much figure out that they don’t want the Kurds or Shiites to win. Conjecture? Somewhat, but this isn’t brain surgery.
The insurgents are the ones with weapons trying to kill people. I hope they don’t win because history had shown that governments based on who has the most weapons don’t usually work very well for the people they’re governing.
I doubt any candidate has the support of a majority of the insurgents. As others have noted it’s not a centralized movement. Some of the insurgents don’t support the whole idea of an election much less any particluar candidate.
Well, I think each subset of the “insurgency” has its own agenda, and wouldn’t mind a victory for themselves. It’s more proper to say, perhaps, that they don’t want anyone else to win, and are willing to act as violent obstructionists until such time as they get their way. These Sunni insurgents would probably like to see an Islamist state, perhaps a full theocracy, established, with Sunnis in control. Obviously, the Shia and the Kurds (being the other largest segments of the Iraqi population) have no interest in that.
What a simplistic view! I wish the world were so simple.
So you think the insurgents are a united voting block? O_o
Discounting half the wars in history, yes.
Oh, that’s better. Dunno why you included the first paragraph then.
Well the last government of Iraq was formed after a coup, through forced of arms, the one we have installed, we’re trying to impose from the will of the people. What Nemo meant was that governments which are there through force of arms don’t last very long as the cycle of violence continues.
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So you’re saying that the American-imposed Iraqi government won’t last very long?
I don’t see much correlation between the force used to create a government and its stability. For example, the Soviet Union started as a rebellion by the lower class of factory workers fighting a powerful and relatively stable monarchy. This does not mean that the Soviet Union was a free and happy place. Saddam was elected at one point. So was Hitler.
The installed government of Iraq headed by Allawi wouldn’t last long without elections to provide the government with the actual will of the people.
Saddam elected? Only with 99% of the margin he’d say. Any lower and it would be false :rolleyes:
The elected government of Iraq will be as grassroots as the formation of the dicatorships of the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany, with some exceptions as it won’t be the only party, and will be functioning within a democratic framework. With these structures in place which help the people be represented, it will last much longer than a government put in place by force of arms.
Ryan_Liam, my earlier point about the ratio of coalition targets is that I think it goes a large way towards showing legitimacy- disputing your point that they are all criminals. Wouldn’t everyone agree that an insurgency that mainly targets occupation military is more legitimate? I worry that by portraying the entire anti-US violence campaign as the acts of homicidal “dead-enders” or islamo-fascists, we lose in two specific ways.
Firstly, we have trouble making to proper predictions with this distorted view.
Secondly, we make hardline options more palatible (eg the “El Salvador Solution”). This is the most dangerous part because we can see from the past that this strengthens more violent factions- making our distorted view self fulfilling.
Jake, sorry if I didn’t answer your questions. They were short and I’ll admit I was guessing at what exactly your point was and what you were asking. Perhaps you could expand on your post.
Maybe we should find the 1% who voted against Saddam and give the country to them. You have to admit they had some balls.
Unless they involve unprovoked aggression against another sovereign state.
The difference is national sovereignty. Insurgencies are purely internal conflicts.
Apart from Korea, I don’t think the UN has sanctioned any invasions or mini-wars – only the deployment of UN peacekeeping troops to patrol an area after combat operations have ended without actually resolving the situation on the ground.
Until they try to interfere with another state’s sovereignty. That is, unless a government practices genocide or something approaching it on its own people, it is generally accepted that anything it does within its own borders its own business. No other country has a right to interfere. But if the country commits unprovoked military aggression against a foreign country, as Iraq did when it invaded Kuwait, then its actions are not considered legitimate and foreign intervention may be justified.
It’s a set of unwritten rules which, IMO, can be inferred from looking at what a national leader can say in the international forum and still be taken seriously. Before WWII, the idea of “right of conquest” pure and simple still had some international legitimacy (and even then, Hitler usually felt obliged to announce some kind of arguable pretext for invading his neighbors, e.g., fighting Communism). But now? Look at what happened to Hussein when he annexed Kuwait and publicly announced it was nobody’s business. In 1940 – or at practically any previous time in world history – that might have passed without comment, but not in 1990.
But those structures have been gone ever since the invasion, and neither the Coalition government nor the interim government has built any workable replacements for them.
I’d disagree on all of what you said with the exception of the security situation.
There’s an interesting (albeit highly biased) article
Now, I do agree that getting well-trained Iraqi police is a vital, vital concern. But at this point, there are many factors that are preventing said police from being effective. They could be fearful of the insurgents, or what happens when America leaves, or hesitant to fight other Iraqis, or any number of things.