I went to see The Founding of a Republic other week in the full knowledge that it was largely propaganda for the PRC and an excuse to show Chairman Mao Tse-tung being heroic and fatherly and, well, Founding A Republic.
It was actually quite a watchable film and I was gobsmacked to see that it actually showed Generalissimo Chiang Kai-Shek in a sympathetic light (I was expecting him to be shown as a Chinese version of Hitler).
Anyway, overlooking the euphemistic use of “Democratic” to refer to anyone who wasn’t part of the Kuomintang and various other “Yay Communist China!” stuff, the film did get me thinking about the absurd situation with the Republic of China on Taiwan claiming to be the legitimate government of a country (Mainland China) they clearly aren’t in control of, and Communist China pretending that the Taiwan/the Republic of China either doesn’t exist or is a wayward province that will eventually come around to their way of thinking in due course.
Given that the Republic of China hasn’t been in control of anywhere on the Mainland since the 1950s, how do they manage to elect representatives from all the mainland provinces to their parliament? I imagine they must get a few “defectors”, for want of a better term, but the people who were actually born in those places when the KMT were in control must be very elderly now.
Has there been any major change in the two country’s relations to each other lately? China nowadays is very different from China in the 50s-70s and I recall hearing that direct cross- strait flights (ie not going via Hong Kong or Macau or Japan or somewhere else) had resumed recently…
In short, is there any likelihood of the two Chinas finally admitting that they’re not likely to undo the past anytime soon and acknowledging that Taiwan is a separate country and that Communist China are, in fact, the legitimate government of Mainland China?
I know we’ve had threads on this before, but I think it’s a fascinating subject that bears revisiting…
Somehow I’m thinking this is GD or IMHO type of a post…
Relations are greatly changed lately. The elephant in the room is that no matter the rhetoric, the economic integration of Taiwan and China is getting closer and closer. There is up to 2 million (10% of the population) Taiwanese living and working in China on any given day. Taiwan’s manufacturing has largely moved to China with maybe the exception of the PC industry and TMSC and other chip foundries s have all made multi billion dollar investments in China.
China in the forseeable future will never recognize Taiwan as a seperate country. There is no upside to doing this. Ditto Taiwan giving up the fiction of being the rightful party of China.
The other changing dyamic is now Taiwan allows mainland tourists to Taiwan. The more mainlanders visit, the better the mutual understanding and possibility there will be a sea change.
IMHO economic integration will drive a political settlement with Taiwan being somehow incorporated into Greater China. Heck if the French and Germans can give up their currency and other sovereign trappings, it’s not unrealistic for ROC and the PRC.
Excellent points. I’d figured that if there was re-unification anytime soon, it’d be under a “Special Autonomous Region” type deal as with Hong Kong and Macau, but then the ROC might feel they were getting the short end of the stick.
It just seems so odd that most of the planet maintains no diplomatic relations with the ROC (in effect saying “There’s no such country”), yet at the same time still allowing ROC passport holders to visit their countries (and vice versa)…
But, as you say, if France can give up the Franc, then the ROC and the PRC may yet be reconciled as well.
I’m saying that de facto economic integration will drive some sort of political reproachment and settlement.
The economic integration is considerably far along. Probably far past the point of where Taiwan could roll it back without serious damage to their economy and daily life. Not yet far enough to force a political settlement. I’d say within 5 years and certainly within 10 years there will be some sort of political federation between the two.
There will no doubt be more cooperation and integration. However, if there is going to be formal unification, Taiwan is going to want to participate as an equal partner, and they’re going to demand genuine autonomy, not the half-arsed job in HK and Macau. I have my doubts about whether these terms would be acceptable to the current mainland regime. They seem to be always paranoid about lossing control and such.
My understanding is that Taiwan would be willing to give up all claims to the mainland. But this would amount to a declaration of independance and the People’s Republic has always said that this would be one of the two things that would lead to a invasion (the other would be Taiwan seeking nuclear weapons).
But putting an invasion on hold, China is trying to get Taiwan to agree to a voluntary reunification. And part of this is not denouncing Chiang Kai-Shek. The Chinese position is essentially Chiang’s dead, Mao’s dead, it’s old history, and let’s move on.
What, exactly, is the PRC’s issue with Taiwan declaring independence anyway? I mean, as has been pointed out, both Mao and Chiang have been dead for decades.
So what if Taiwan finally gets recognised as a separate country? Wouldn’t that make the normalisation of relations a lot easier for everyone?
Or is this somehow related to the whole Tibet thing (ie, if they acknowledge Taiwas as being independent, that might give ammunition to the whole pro-Tibet movement or something)?
Like Sex is The Great Carrot for Racial Equality. Like “Romeo and Juliet,” you can keep claiming a difference, but your kids will prove you wrong. The grandchildren of the generation that created the ROC are less than impressed with the reasons and will not fight to remain separate if they see it as being in their favor.
Probably. That is, where would it end? China has a long history and the Chinese have long historical memories, and there have been many periods when China was politically fragmented, including the early 20th Century. That’s what the government wants at all costs to avoid. And they quite recently saw what happened to the Soviet Union.
That right there is a big part of this whole issue. In the early part of hte 20th century, China had a lot of regions that were functioning basically as seperate nations anyways. The leadership of those regions were viewed as “Warlords” and seperatism was “Warlordism”, and was a slap in the face to the idea of Greater China.
Taiwan being seperate isn’t that big of a deal right now, but the thinking is that if Taiwan is allowed to become a seperate nation, what’s to stop Hong Kong, or any of the other historically troublesome regions from doing the same? Then it’s Warlords and fracturization of the nation all over again!
One of the failings of the West in dealing with the Taiwan issue is really understanding how long view the Chinese tend to look at things… Taiwan will become part of Greater China again, it just may take a century or longer. They are willing to wait (barring something like independence, which they would view as trying to “break up” China).
I thought that might have something to do with it. The interesting thing will be if Greater China is still being run the Communists when Taiwan rejoins…