It was aired on history channel in January, but haven’t been aired in Europe yet. It’s supposed to show what will happen to earth and the remains of our civilization in the days, weeks, months and decades after humans are gone
Have you seen it ? and what are your thoughts about it?
We talked about it some .
It was silly at points.
Having said that:
Really surprising how fast places like NYC subways (days), London and the Netherlands (inside 30ish years) with no human intervention would flood.
The rebounding wildlife happened really fast too - faster than I expected.
It was surprising to me how long cars would last as what you would say “Hey that’s a car” long after Broadway was a grass lawn and many of the windows had fallen out of skyscrapers
Sad but unsurprised on pets - but the effect on rats and mice - that they depend on us heavily too wasn’t something I had considered - their eventual population crash was surprising to me.
There was also the zombie thread, How long would it take Nature to destroy the evidence of human existence?, that had a brief resurgence (since there was no extreme hostility in the first incarnation) in GD that had responses as recently as a couple weeks ago, specifically in response to the TV show.
The program about 7 doomsday scenarios was a LOT better
Didn’t see it, but the Wiki link made it sound a lot like Alan Weisman’s The World Without Us, which I recently read. Highly recommended. The good news: Nature is pretty damned persistent and robust, and animal and plant life will soon reassert itself just about everywhere, despite unattended chemical plants, oil refineries and some nuclear power plants blowing up. The faces on Mount Rushmore will probably last for millions of years. The bad news: Undermined by flooding, the Manhattan skyline will crumble pretty fast, and our plastics will clog the oceans for many, many years to come.
The National Geogrphic Channel has been airing promos for what looks like a similarly-themed show scheduled to air in March.
I was very disappointed-- although there were a few interesting tidbits here and there, it was largely superficial speculaiton. Just get the Scientific American article-- it was much, much better.
I had no idea how completely most dogs’ existence depended on us ( although, in hindsight, I really shouldn’t have been surprised.) I was heartbroken looking at that doomed dog trapped in the empty house.
I am determined now, not to let humanity go extinct, if just for my poor widdle Baxter’s sake.
Oh, I wouldn’t worry about dogs. They quickly form themselves into effective hunting packs.
I grew up in the country, near a national forest where people frequently abandoned their unwanted dogs. We raised cattle, and we often had to fend off packs of these dogs, which would attack calves in very organized fashion.
Our house was on a hill, so we would have a good view of things unfolding in the pasture below. The packs included dogs of all sizes and descriptions. It was actually pretty comical to see even little lap dogs participating in the hunt.
Without human agriculture there simply isn’t enough food for dogs, no matter how quickly they take up hunting. Remember, the dog population is in the same range as the human population . Those dogs lucky enough to live in major ranching regions will probably do OK for the first 12 months if they can escape. The rest will starve to death within a couple of months. Even most of those animals in ranching districts will find themselves starving once the cattle either die themesleves due to lack of food an water, or else are whittled down by overhunting.
So while some dogs will doubtless go feral (and many feral packs already exist in most parts of the world) most will simply starve.
Some dogs would die, some cattle would die, and balance would be struck, I imagine. Nature’s way.
I should expand on that last post. Cattle will not go extinct, in my opinion. If growing up in a cattle farming area taught me anything, it’s that fences won’t hold them. They are always testing fences and breaking out. So you’d have cattle escaping from untended fences. They eat grass, so it’s not like finding food will be a huge problem for them. They would have to migrate with the weather if there were no humans to help them through winter. So eventually, you’d have migrating herds of feral cattle, with packs of feral dogs (and other predators) tracking their movements.
I’d imagine cattle would eventually gravitate to the plains (in the US), since in the east forests would grow up and take over within a few decades, leaving less available forage for ruminants.
Also, cattle aren’t the only options for dogs. There are deer, goats, and sheep as well. Not to mention rabbits and other assorted smaller game.
Frankly, it could have been done in a half hour or hour. It was *way * overly dramatic and the pacing was terrible.
It was interesting to see how things would literally break down, but it seemed otherwise pointless. I much more enjoyed the special from a few years ago about life evolving on Earth in the distant future.
Oh, right, and it was made under the assumption humans would simply vanish in an instant, leaving everything still running exactly as it does from day to day.
I guess they had to do something about the people factor, but it pushed the disbelief envelope to the breaking point in the first 10 minutes (did I mention it was too damn long?).
Rather than being so incredibly melodramatic about it, they really could have just stated everything factually and made it about how what we have made will vanish rather than a flight of whimsy.
The domestic cow, Bos taurus, is one of the most extensively and deliberately domesticated species, and is ill-suited to survival long without at lead the protection and (for many breeds) active care by humans. Domestic cattle are too lacking in defensive capacity or mobility unlike other bovines like the bisons, buffalos, antelopes, or even the aurochs from which they are derived, to survive long, plus, they’ve been bred to produce meat or dairy products, not for survival characteristics.
Cattle would likely disappear as all predator populations (not just dogs, but large cats, wolves, and brown bears) grow and competing herbivores displace them. Ditto for domestic horses and pigs. Working breeds of the domestic dog would survive longer and would likely even interbreed with indigenous grey wolf populations where they exist; however, most show breeds and even most hunting breeds are ill-suited to general feral lifestyle.
Of the domesticated animals transitioning effectively to a feral lifestyle, I’d argue that donkeys and domestic cats would probably fare the best, both being only moderately domesticated and still retaining many of the characteristics and instincts of wild Asinus and Felis species.
A thread similar to the o.p.'s question, [thread=428318]Ancient advanced civilizations[/thread], addressed the question of how long evidence of a pre-historical civilization would survive. Some more durable artifacts, like the faces carved into Mt. Rushmore, could survive eons, but most structures–even buildings and other large constructions–would disappear in a few millenia. Traces of human evidence would still be left widely distributed around the world in the “fossil record” for future archelologists, but wouldn’t be apparent from casual inspection.
Stranger
Depends on the breed. I’ve seen cattle use their horns very effectively. (Male and female-- I know some city folk are under the mistaken impression that only bulls have horns.)
Again, survivability depends on the breed. I would agree that, say, Herefords, might have a hard time. But there are other, tougher breeds.
Diagree. Cattle would adapt and fill the niche of the eastern bison. Their herding instincts would preserve them just as with their wild cousins. Large cats and bears are extinct in many areas where cattle are raised. It would take some time for those predators to regain their former numbers. And that would give cattle time to adapt.
There are already thriving feral populations of horses and hogs. These animals go feral very easily and successfully. All of the wild hogs and wild horses in the US are descended from domesticated animals.
You are seriously underestimating the adaptability of our animal friends.
No, I’m recognizing that a significant and intentional result of domestication is the suppression of characteristics and behaviors that make ancestor species so successful in the wild. Domestic species tend to display neoteny–retardation of maturity–and paedomorphic characteristics, which makes them easier to handle, less flighty, and more dependent upon humans; this is true even of the hardier form of cattle, and feral populations of highly domesticated species, where they exist, tend to be in very limited preserves in a closed ecosystem where natural predation is minimal. They have also been bred to increase fatty muscle tissue and/or excess dairy production even though these characteristics are at odds with the normal requirements for survival. These species are not only ill-suited to defense against natural predators (and in many cases, are far removed from the native predators of their ancestors) but are also much less adapted to the area than directly competing wild speces, and so are doubly at a disadvantage. In North America, the American Bison would be far more successful than any breed of domestic cattle, and the latter populations would either be displaced or interbreed for survival.
The marginal level of active large predators in developed regions is entirely due to human presence and the dearth of free ranging prey; with a lack of these constraints, apex predators tend to expand rapidly to the limits (and usually beyond) of sustenance. Given a lack of human protection, large predator species like wolves/feral dogs, large cats, large predatory reptiles would quickly expand to the extents of their food supply and adaptable habitat, offering viritually no time for adaptation on evolutionary scales. Again, wild species are going to be much better suited; the bison is significantly faster and more agile than domestic cattle. The same is true for pigs and sheep. Domesticated horses are something of an exception in this regard (at least, quarterhorses, thoroughbreds and other “sporting” horse breeds) but any equestrian expert will attest to how much care is needed to keep these horses in good health and the problems that often arise in foaling due to the artificial selective pressures to optimize the anatomy for speed riding.
While the razorback is derived from domestic stock (albeit far less domesticated than the common thin-furred breeds of domestic hog), the more aggressive javelina/peccary is native to the Americas. The former thrive largely because of a lack of large predators to prey on them, but its survivability is somewhat questionable in the face of wide scale predation by large predators. A herd of pigs from a modern hog farm would be nothing but bacon for real apex predators.
The American Black Bear, by the way, really isn’t a predator in any real sense of the word; while they will occasionally engage in opportunistic predation of very young or weak herd animals they’re more typically foragers and scavengers with an omnivorous diet with most protein coming from nuts, larvae, and insects. Brown Bears are somewhat more generally predators but are apex predators only in the sense that nothing remains to prey on them (their traditional threats of the Dire Wolf, Short-Faced Bear, and Smilodon having become extinct); they are not primary predators of land herd animals, again getting most protein either by foraging or fishing, and hunt only when sources of protein and fat are desperately needed (before and after winder hibernation). Neither are keystone predators that serve to control the size of herd populations.
The sudden elimination of human protection and provision would shortly result in extinction (either by predation or interbreeding with compatable wild species) of domestic animal species. Despite your assertion of the “adaptability of our animal friends,” truely domesticated animals have been artificially evoled to minimize their capability of survival in the wild and to maximize their food value. When placed in competition with existing wild species or under threat from predation that they’re ill-suited to defend against they won’t survive long enough to even begin adapation to a truely wild, open ecosystem.
Stranger
Since it’s all speculation, I don’t think the word “documentary” should apply. But I’m a jerk.
Where to begin? First up, peccaries aren’t pigs, though they are related to pigs and resemble them superficially. So the wild pigs in the US are all feral.
As for peccaries being more aggressive than feral hogs, well, I don’t know if you’ve ever been near a razorback, but they aren’t exactly cuddly. In fact, it’s hard to imagine a more aggresive animal. So they are considerably larger, and at least as mean as peccaries. good luck to the little peccaries trying to drive these guys out of their niche.
Those “thin-furred” hogs you’re talking about? They may not be as thin-furred as you think. Many domestic hogs are quite hairy. And when they go feral, they revert very quickly to a “wild” phenotype, with thick hair and long, deadly tusks:
Dogs also go feral quickly and easily. After a few generations they tend to revert to a default “yellow dog” phenotype, similar in appearance to Australia’s dingo. (Similarly, feral cats revert to tabby patterns after a few generations.) As for competition from other predators, well, in Italy (to cite one example) feral dogs are outcompeting wolves, primarily by out-breeding them. Cite.
The linked article also describes feral cattle on Hawaii and other Pacific islands. (What would be the mechanism by which those herds would be driven to extinction after we are gone?) The article also discusses the independent lifestyle of free-range cattle in several places:
Feral cattle quickly develop formidable weaponry. They can also develop a leaner, rangier build. No reason they couldn’t coexist with predators, particularly since (as you noted, Stranger) many of North America’s big predators have been exterminated.
Moreover, predators don’t normally hunt their prey to extinction. A balance would be found, likely resulting in a lot of yellow dogs, herds of rangy and long-horned cattle, tabby cats, razorbacks, mustangs, wild goats and feral chickens.
You’re conflating the idea of feral populations of domestic animals which are in closed ecosystems with marginal or no predation with an open system in which an ill-adapted domestic species is in competition both against predation and with native species for the same resources. The expansion of predators introduced into a new system or a system in which constraints have been removed is rapid, and yes, this does sometimes result in the endangerment or extinction of prey species; trophic cascades and extinction catastrophes are common problems that result from a rapid change in environmental pressures. The speed at which this can occur is often far more so than can be accomodated by natural selective pressures, and highly domesticated species that have been substantially altered from their ancesteral capabilities simple aren’t going to survive long enough to breed for many generations to develop more aggressive instincts and defensive capabilities.
Domestic cattle, Yorkshire- and Landrace- type hogs, show breeds of dogs, domestic fowl, et cetera, neither have the capabilities nor the canniness to survive predation, while native, if currently endangered, native or migrated apex predators will expand as rapidly as breeding permits. I’m not sure where the notion that domesticated, neotenic species will somehow redevelop the speed, agility, or defensive phenotypes that will make them equivilent to wild ancestor species, but barring some kind of Lamarckian-type acquisition of such characteristics there just isn’t sufficient expression in most domestic species to make much of a difference. Cross-breeding with existing wild species will offer some advantages (and in some cases in both directions, as with the more aggressive wolf-dog and coyote-dog crosses) but then those aren’t members of a domestic species but hybrids.
Certain domestic species are more likely to survive, particularly those which are mesopredators that can evade predation by apex predators. Dogs, as you note, have demonstrated effectiveness in feral populations and currently exist in characteristics sufficiently close to wild species of Canis that they can compete and/or merge with existing populations of cursoral hunters. The Domestic Cat will probably also endure as it is adaptable and being not substantially different than wild cousin species. Some breeds of Domestic Goat are not far removed from the Wild Goat in capability, and could conceivably survive in an unconstrained feral lifestyle, but most feral goat populations that are geographically isolated from broad predation. Domestic herd animals and fowl, on the other hand, won’t stand much of a chance.
All of this again refers to open systems with pre-existing apex predators that have been held at bay by the presence of human populations, i.e. North America, Eurasia, Africa. Populations of domestic animals that are geographically isolated from potential predators may survive and adapt indefinitely, as evidenced by the natural evolution of flightless birds and island gigantism among herbivores.
Stranger
