London Bomb Plotters- How serious were they?

So, the British Police have briefed the US Press about their investigations into the supposed bomb plot last month which led to the virtual closing down of normal air traffic too and from the UK and has left us with special restrictions on all flights out of the UK (but not into it) and even more restrictions on US-UK traffic.

The New York Times ran an article yesterday:

which described the Press Briefing.

A further article today claimed that the site had been blocked to British viewers because of British laws on contempt of court:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/29/business/media/29times.html.

Registration may be required for the above articles.

It took me three minutes to circumvent the restrictions.

I now find from the article that, with the police spin removed there are no claims of:

Actual plans to blow up aircraft
Any explosives available
Any date set
Any evidence of competence
They did find:

Some Hydrogen Peroxide (Hair Bleach) and some batteries which are listed as ‘other chemicals with which to make a bomb’)
Videos expressing thoughts of anger and martyrdom.
Money Orders
A computer memory stick that showed he had looked up airline schedules for flights from London to the United States
Batteries and Lucozade bottles
Jihadist literature and DVD’s about “genocide” in Iraq and Palestine
A copy of a book called “Defense of the Muslim Lands.”
A considerable amount of computer and other electronic media which has yielded only the above.

Excerpts:
*five senior British officials said, the suspects were not prepared to strike immediately. Instead, the reactions of Britain and the United States in the wake of the arrests of 21 people on Aug. 10 were driven less by information about a specific, imminent attack than fear that other, unknown terrorists might strike.
British officials said the suspects still had a lot of work to do. Two of the suspects did not have passports, but had applied for expedited approval. One official said the people suspected of leading the plot were still recruiting and radicalizing would-be bombers.
While investigators found evidence on a computer memory stick indicating that one of the men had looked up airline schedules for flights from London to cities in the United States, the suspects had neither made reservations nor purchased plane tickets, a British official said

two and a half weeks since the inquiry became public, British investigators have still not determined whether there was a target date for the attacks or how many planes were to be involved. They say the estimate of 10 planes was speculative and exaggerated.

Despite the charges, officials said they were still unsure of one critical question: whether any of the suspects was technically capable of assembling and detonating liquid explosives while airborne. A chemist involved in that part of the inquiry, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was sworn to confidentiality, said HMTD, which can be prepared by combining hydrogen peroxide with other chemicals, “in theory is dangerous,” but whether the suspects “had the brights to pull it off remains to be seen.”

While officials and experts familiar with the case say the investigation points to a serious and determined group of plotters, they add that questions about the immediacy and difficulty of the suspected bombing plot cast doubt on the accuracy of some of the public statements made at the time.
“In retrospect,’’ said Michael A. Sheehan, the former deputy commissioner of counterterrorism in the New York Police Department, “there may have been too much hyperventilating going on.”

British officials said many of the questions about the suspected plot remained unanswered because they were forced to make the arrests before Scotland Yard was ready.

“While the arrests were unfolding, the Home Office raised Britain’s terror alert level to “critical,” as the police continued their raids of suspects’ homes and cars. All liquids were banned from carry-on bags, and some public officials in Britain and the United States said an attack appeared to be imminent. In addition to Mr. Stephenson’s remark that the attack would have been “mass murder on an unimaginable scale,” Mr. Reid said that attacks were “highly likely” and predicted that the loss of life would have been on an “unprecedented scale.”
Two weeks later, senior officials here characterized the remarks as unfortunate. As more information was analyzed and the British government decided that the attack was not imminent, Mr. Reid sought to calm the country by backing off from his dire predictions, while defending the decision to raise the alert level to its highest level as a precaution.
*
Now, undeniably, these people were acting in a potentially culpable manner and needed to be brought to book, but

given the information that came out before British Contempt laws came into effect and the above NY Times briefing, and considering the British Government’s previous record on this matter- collapsed ‘Ricin Plot’, Non-existant ground to air missiles at Heathrow, the execution of an innocent Brazilian on the Subway in London, and the shooting of a young Asian man and the pistol-whipping of his family and next door (Sikh) neighbours,

I just do not believe that there is a real case against these people that warranted the massive (and politically useful) government over-reaction to the case.

Can anyone convince me otherwise? Is there really a serious case of real terrorism here?

Wasn’t there another thread on this same subject just recently??

I doubt it, as it seems your mind is already made up on the subject, but what would you find convincing?

-XT

Some real evidence of an extant plot with dates, times, people, money, explosives and plans. That would do.

If there was, it was prior to the British Police spilling the beans to the NY Times. With the British Press they had to limit what they said (although they made every effort to circumvent the law by giving two separate briefings and denying that there was a connection between them.)

The important thing is that the Police have produced to the American Press what they say is the Crown Jewels, and it all turns out to be paste jewelery

Why?

If they weren’t plotting to blow stuff up, then what would you charge them with?

If they WERE plotting to blow stuff up, doesn’t that make them, well, terrorists?

The fact that they were amatuers doesn’t mean a thing. There’s no such thing as a professional suicide bomber. The martyrdom videos seem to be the nail in the coffin, don’t you think?

The point that I am making is that MI% is probably tracking dozens of other people in this way- I am sure that there are hundreds if not thousands of angry young muslim men, making gestures, winding each other up, recording videos, making threats, experimenting with being ‘hard’ in a particular Jihadist manner.

The question is- why the massive government over-reaction, admitted above in those quotes.

If there was evidence of such a plot, then the exercise would be valid. There seems to be no real evidence of any thought out, planned, prepared for, potentially successful plot.

And, as I said above, the record of MI5 and the police in these matters (now remembering to add the non-existent Manchester United Plot- a group of young asians arrested for plotting to blow up Old Trafford and then released in embarrasment a few days later) does noting to increase ones confidence in their competence.

I don’t believe that the dates and times were quite set when the Brits moved in (earlier than they wanted btw…due in part to US pressure IIRC). The people thing is obvious and I don’t know why you would ask for that…note the arrests.

As for ‘explosives and plans’, did you read your own article. I’ll just quote what you said in the OP (with the spin):

Perhaps you were unaware that Hydrogen Peroxide and a batter can make a bomb? If so, google. “Hydrogen Peroxide” “Battery” and “Bomb” and educate yourself.

I found this article on CBS (30 second search), talking about the previous subway attacks (was this real terrorism to you? Was it keystone Cops type stuff?):

Yeah…it was real terrorism, despite using such silly stuff (to you) as ‘Hair Bleach’ and batteries. I guess it wouldn’t be real to you though unless they managed to pull it off…that they were caught before they could even try it somehow means that they weren’t serious.

-XT

If you insist on treating terrorism like any other minor crime, then the evidence may be a bit weak.

But terrorism isn’t a regular crime. It’s an act of war.

Regular crime is carried out by individual criminals , who attack individual victims, with the intention of making a profit for the criminal individuals.
War is carried out by ideological groups who attack an entire society with the intention of totally destroying millions of people’s lives.

It won’t convince you, I’m sure.
But you’re asking a pre Sept 11th question, for a post Sept 11th world.

Like the British general in WWI who refused to look at the documents intercepted by military intelligence showing the German plans to attack, because “gentlemen don’t read each others’ mail” .

Sorry, in the UK we only have ‘regular crime’. We do not recognize something called the War on Terror. We remain a liberal democracy with no ‘Patriot Act’. Our courts and the Upper House have ensured that Blair has not managed to sell this type of thing to the British people.

Crime is crime. It needs to be proven before a court of law, under current statutes.

Wars are things that nations fight. Criminal activities are engaged in by individuals within or without a state.

We coped with worse in Europe and the Near-east with the IRA the Red Brigade and Black September. No real change then.

Except your idea of a “real terrorist” was formed by IRA terrorism. Now, those guys were professional terrorists, meaning they expected to live to plant bombs again and again.

Suicide bombers are always going to be wannabes…until they wander into the underground and explode themselves. The fact that these guys had never commited a suicide bombing before doesn’t mean we should dismiss them, right?

Suicide bomb teacher to students: Now pay attention because I’m only going to demonstrate this once!

Excellent point.

-XT

No, but the fact the the British Authorities believe:
*
Despite the charges, officials said they were still unsure of one critical question: whether any of the suspects was technically capable of assembling and detonating liquid explosives while airborne. A chemist involved in that part of the inquiry, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was sworn to confidentiality, said HMTD, which can be prepared by combining hydrogen peroxide with other chemicals, “in theory is dangerous,” but whether the suspects “had the brights to pull it off remains to be seen.”*

and

two and a half weeks since the inquiry became public, British investigators have still not determined whether there was a target date for the attacks or how many planes were to be involved. They say the estimate of 10 planes was speculative and exaggerated.

*While officials and experts familiar with the case say the investigation points to a serious and determined group of plotters, they add that questions about the immediacy and difficulty of the suspected bombing plot cast doubt on the accuracy of some of the public statements made at the time. *

It looks increasingly like we are dealing with idiot fantasists rather than potential mass murderers.

I don’t see where the two are mutually exclusive.

You didn’t actually read the cite I posted above or google about a hydrogen peroxide bomb, did you? Not to disparage the unknown British chemist, but a moron could build such a bomb…in fact, the instructions are (horrificially enough) right there on the web. My 10 year old son could do that. I’m not going to post any of those links BECAUSE its so fucking easy to do…but its right there if you bother to google what I said.

And it didn’t seem to be overly technically challenging to the guys who used the exact same things to do the suicide bit in your subway system.

But go ahead and keep thinking this stuff is idiotic fantasy of deluded Islamic wanabee’s if you must.

-XT

Read my link punk :stuck_out_tongue:

*Making a quantity of TATP sufficient to bring down an airplane is not quite as simple as ducking into the toilet and mixing two harmless liquids together.

First, you’ve got to get adequately concentrated hydrogen peroxide. This is hard to come by, so a large quantity of the three per cent solution sold in pharmacies might have to be concentrated by boiling off the water. Only this is risky, and can lead to mission failure by means of burning down your makeshift lab before a single infidel has been harmed.

But let’s assume that you can obtain it in the required concentration, or cook it from a dilute solution without ruining your operation. Fine. The remaining ingredients, acetone and sulfuric acid, are far easier to obtain, and we can assume that you’ve got them on hand.

Now for the fun part. Take your hydrogen peroxide, acetone, and sulfuric acid, measure them very carefully, and put them into drinks bottles for convenient smuggling onto a plane. It’s all right to mix the peroxide and acetone in one container, so long as it remains cool. Don’t forget to bring several frozen gel-packs (preferably in a Styrofoam chiller deceptively marked “perishable foods”), a thermometer, a large beaker, a stirring rod, and a medicine dropper. You’re going to need them.

It’s best to fly first class and order Champagne. The bucket full of ice water, which the airline ought to supply, might possibly be adequate - especially if you have those cold gel-packs handy to supplement the ice, and the Styrofoam chiller handy for insulation - to get you through the cookery without starting a fire in the lavvie.
Easy does it

Once the plane is over the ocean, very discreetly bring all of your gear into the toilet. You might need to make several trips to avoid drawing attention. Once your kit is in place, put a beaker containing the peroxide / acetone mixture into the ice water bath (Champagne bucket), and start adding the acid, drop by drop, while stirring constantly. Watch the reaction temperature carefully. The mixture will heat, and if it gets too hot, you’ll end up with a weak explosive. In fact, if it gets really hot, you’ll get a premature explosion possibly sufficient to kill you, but probably no one else.

After a few hours - assuming, by some miracle, that the fumes haven’t overcome you or alerted passengers or the flight crew to your activities - you’ll have a quantity of TATP with which to carry out your mission. Now all you need to do is dry it for an hour or two.

The genius of this scheme is that TATP is relatively easy to detonate. But you must make enough of it to crash the plane, and you must make it with care to assure potency. One needs quality stuff to commit “mass murder on an unimaginable scale,” as Deputy Police Commissioner Paul Stephenson put it. While it’s true that a slapdash concoction will explode, it’s unlikely to do more than blow out a few windows. At best, an infidel or two might be killed by the blast, and one or two others by flying debris as the cabin suddenly depressurizes, but that’s about all you’re likely to manage under the most favorable conditions possible.
*

From the same source:

It’s been claimed that the 7/7 bombers used it, but this has not been positively confirmed. Some sources claim that they used C-4, and others that they used RDX. Nevertheless, the belief that they used TATP has stuck with the media, although going about in a crowded city at rush hour with an unstable homebrew explosive in a backpack is not the brightest of all possible moves.

But if you are a suicide bomber, then carrying around an insanely dangerous combination of chemicals in a backpack is no risk at all. You expect and embrace death, if you die prematurely, so what?

HMTD. Also called Hexamethylenetriperoxidediamine. The raw ingredients are 27 or 30% hydrogen peroxide, powdered hexamine, and citric acid. The hexamine might be obtained from an army surplus stores as a solid fuel tablet used for outdoor camping, and might go by the name “urotropine’ or “hexamethylenetetramine”. Citric acid might be obtained from a food or drug store. The hexamine is crushed, mixed in with the hydrogen peroxide solution, and citric acid added while keeping the temperature below 10 C. The precipitate formed is filtered, washed, and allowed to dry.

So easy to do in an aircraft rest room. :wink:

You know, we aren’t in the Pit…right? Feel free to take it there if you must, but until then I would appreciate not being called a ‘punk’. M’kay?
And in point of fact I DID read your link, sir. You obviously didn’t bother to google what I told you though or you would have gotten some additional info. Yeah, its dangerous stuff, and I have no doubt your unknown chemist would want to take all those precautions when making the stuff. He is probably not a suicide bomber though. IOW he is concerned with safety and preventing himself from being killed. I read one internet account of an explosive being made with the components you listed in much less safety demanding circumstances (no ice baths needed), so its possible.

I still hesitate to put links to these kinds of things here, but if you are going to continue treating this one source as the font of all knowledge concerning the creation of such IED’s, and you continue to look for yourself at other sources, then I think I’ll just have to withdraw and leave you to your fantasy. Maybe someone else will come along and sing kumbyah with you and say it was all just an overblown fantasy by those Islamic wanabee’s, nothing to see here folks…move along.

-XT