London Bomb Plotters- How serious were they?

:stuck_out_tongue:

Hopefully Orbifold will recognize the tongue in cheek manner there and accept my earlier apologies.

I was under the impression that HMDT WAS detectable, but I’m also going from memory there. If I have time this afternoon I’ll see what I can dig up that is (IMO) safe to post on the board.

If it is not detectable then it certainly should be…but it would make sense then that this was the target explosive if thats the case. IIRC HMDT does not have a long shelf life for stability or uniform reaction, so it would also make sense that they wouldn’t create the explosive until they were ready to roll…but they would have the components on hand.

Right…that was pretty much my point. Also, these guys may have been willing to accept a lower order of probable success (10% or 20% say) than most folks woudl find acceptable. If there were several teams then they might have counted on at least ONE of the explosions being energetic enough to at the very least cause major structural damage. As noted, punching a hole in a pressurized cabin at altitude can ruin your whole day…and its not all THAT hard to blow such a hole in the side (probably be a tad hard on the terrorist, but then thats what they are there for :)).

-XT

Forensic chemist checking in; although counterterrorism isn’t my area, I know a fair bit about instrumentation and detection of explosives.

“Nitrogen-based explosive” refers to compounds that create their explosive effects due to the involvement of nitrogen - typically compounds which contain nitrate or nitrite groups. I find it to be a distinctly useless term because many detection methods that are called “nitrogen-based” simply rely upon the presence of nitrogen, not whether the compound relies upon that nitrogen to explode. So HMTD, containing nitrogen, is “nitrogen-based” as far as detectors are concerned, but not “nitrogen-based” by the explosive definition. Nicely confusing!

Ion mobility spectroscopy (IMS), which is the technique used in many airports for the detection of explosive materials (it is called the IonScan most of the time), were initially built in response to these nitrate- and nitrite-based explosives. However, the detection method itself is not exclusive to compounds that explode due to nitrogen involvement - IMS can also be used to detect nitrogen-containing drugs, oxygen-containing compounds, etc.

There is nothing inherent to the structure of a nitrate/nitrite-based explosive that makes it possible to detect by IMS where other types of explosives are not. The technique is simply predicated on mass/charge ratios of the ionised form of the compound being analysed; compounds with greater mass/charge ratios move more slowly through the spectrometer. The time at which the ion encounters the detector is taken as the presumptive identity of the compound. With that in mind, any compound that can be volatilised by heat and subsequently ionised by a radioactive source can be analysed by the IMS.

There are IMS programs available to detect peroxide-based explosives and these have been available since at least 2003 (See this on-line reprint - PDF file of Moore, D.S. “Instrumentation for trace detection of high explosives”, Review of Scientific Instruments August 2004). This Swedish (?) website selling IonScans seems to claim the machine can detect HMTD as well. However, I haven’t been able to scrounge up any on-line, academic sources about the detection limits of HMTD by this method, so I can’t provide to you any more proof than my own word that I have used the IMS owned by our local folks and it has the possibility to identify HMTD peaks in the resulting ion mobility spectrum.

Another type of detection device, called the “EGIS Defender”, can detect HMTD (see product flyer - PDF from Thermo Electron Corporation). This combines gas chromatography with micro-differential IMS detection. Testing two different types of chemical properties makes the results from this equipment more reliable.

I haven’t been able to find out which type of detector is used in UK airports, but from the description in this article in New Scientist Tech it sounds like they use IMS.

Carry on! :slight_smile:

Caiata, thanks for your input. It was over my head and I’m not quite sure of your conclusion. Is the possibility of identifying HMTD a functional aspect of an IMS machine or a marginal likelyhood? The only thing I found was a 2005 article in Chemistry World describing a $30 pen that could be used in the field. Such a device would be used to positively verify specific compounds if they were suspect but I don’t see it being used on every item that walks by.

xtisme, I’m not sure I agree with you that terrorist bombers would settle for a low success rate. This is just an observational WAG on my part but the continued fascination with aircraft (by terrorists) goes beyond the act of terrorism. 9/11 was a very specific event designed to attack the economic, military, and political symbols of US power. Large aircraft convey the transmission of this power. Failure to achieve a spectacular act reduces the symbolic projection of terrorism. The London bombings used both HMDT and TATP. Since the entire second wave bombs (which failed) were TATP it would appear that this was a working field test between the 2 (another WAG on my part).

Another 14 arrested in London last night.

Not connected with the Aircraft Bomb Plot according to the BBC.

These people are thought to be involved in helping people go to Iraq and fight or otherwise training people for terrorist activities.

That is surreal - a Halal Chinese

I heard nothing on the radio, and the newspaper only had something about 1,000’s under surveillance.

Two words: Timothy McVeigh.

Picture this: you have heard that there is a plot to blow up a Federal building and McVeigh is part of the plot. You gather all of the evidence and pick him up. He does not have an actual bomb built. He has some vague plans, maybe some parts…mostly, though, he has a lot of crackpot theories and seething resentment against the government. In spite of the mentality of his rantings and the indications of some level of planning, you conclude that he is some sort of overheated hillbilly that doesn’t have the resources and brainpower to pull off such a stunt. Think you oughta just let him go?

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/mail/mail428.html#Carmack

Now, Mr. Carmack is most famous for writing video games, but he’s been trying to stuff rockets into outer space for a while. This qualifies as a man who knows what he’s talking about. The bombs could well have worked, he says.

Why surreal? (a) China has 21 million Muslims, mostly in the Xinjiang province which borders Pakistan, and (b) it could easily be run by ethnic Chinese people from another country, e.g. Malaysia.

To be honest I have eaten with Moslems in Chinese run restaurants in Malaysia, quite interesting, some will not shake hands with an Infidel, but think nothing of diving their chopsticks into the same dishes.

Just as the majority of ‘Indian’ restaurants in the UK serve dishes that are virtually unrecognizable to Indian Indians, UK Chinese food tends to have quite a lot of pork.

Having said that I’ve eaten pork spare ribs in a rib shack in a suburb of Tel Aviv, and I really found that surreal - maybe I have a warped sense of humour.