I found a number of articles about the ecological effects of the war from the first few weeks. There was a massive release as this article shows:
OK, but what about the longer term effects? I read recently that about 900 million barrels of oil has not been shipped due to Hormuz being blocked and that number is continuing to rise. And that article didn’t mention how much natural gas hasn’t been shipped but I expect it’s been substantial. Furthermore, people are cutting back on their driving because of the high price of gasoline and diesel. Those prices have also caused a surge of sales of EVs.
On the other hand, some countries are increasing their use of coal to generate power, although there’s also been an increase in the installation of solar power.
So has anyone seen an analysis of the long term effects?
Until you can tell us what the global oil & gas consumption will be in 2028 there is no way to say anything strictly factual about the future.
My own personal prediction is the Strait will be open for commerce within 6 months and oil & gas consumption patterns will continue the trajectory they had from just before start of hostilities. If there is any cutting back of global consumption, it is strictly temporary and strictly trivial.
If the strait is closed longer term, then alternate supplies of oil and gas will come online to replace most of the Hormuz flow. How big is “most”? Darn hard impossible to know, but that’s an essential input into any factual answer we can compute come 2028.
Some changes would be temporary, but some not. If a person’s response is just to drive less, then when the price of gas goes back down, they’ll probably go back to driving more. But if they respond to high prices now by buying an EV, they’re not going to just get rid of it when prices come back down. Likewise for newly-installed wind or solar power plants, or the like.