Okay, futurology is a pointless discipline–its practitioners, usually given to apocalyptic jeremiads or Panglossian warblings, set the scene with too broad a rhetorical brush and are inevitably disappointed by the moderation of any changes that come. Or, contrariwise, some events take everybody by surprise: few in 1935 could have coherently anticipated the effects (social, cultural, political) of the atom bomb just ten years later. (tomndebb, correct that assertion if it’s grievously wrong)
On the other hand, future conditions can be gleaned from current trends, to an extent–especially with a firm handle on history. Toffler’s The Third Wave and Bagidikian’s The Media Monopoly were both prescient visions of things to come (if over-bright and over-dark, respectively).
With that in mind, then, let’s extrapolate: where are we headed in the next twenty years or so? What political, cultural, social, or technological trends do you see continuing or maturing? Why, and to what effect? There’s no need to be comprehensive–one or two wild speculations will suffice. This could get interesting, 'specially if competing visions are offered.
For my part, a coupla thoughts on the future:
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Here in the U.S., I think we’re moving closer to a fee-for-service society. Not to the extent of Brazil, necessarily, where money spent on private security firms outstrips the funding for local police, but I see the continued privatization of many things. Certainly the Internet–also parks, beaches, roads, utilities, health care, security, all to a greater degree than today. As evidence, I present the ascendancy of market liberal determinism as a cross-ideological Weltanschauung–the belief that government is increasingly vestigial except as an instrument to facilitate the freedom of markets. (Not that the government bureaucracy won’t be alive and well–a primary function of government has always been self-perpetuation, after all.) Also, anectodally, the proliferation of gated communities, and the concomitant disconnect with civic nationalism.
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By the same token globally, the emergence of corporations as something akin to autonomous nation-states will occur (in my opinion) within the next quarter-century. Multinationals increasingly transcend national sovereignty, and the institutional structure of international law is largely designed to faciliate business interests (vis a vis the World Trade Organization’s ability to nullify national policy, and the IMF’s role as world debtor and shaper of national policy); it’s not a stretch to imagine corporations assuming a non-territorial sovereignty of their own, which could change the scope of geopolitics considerably.
Any thoughts? Who’s next?