Lookin' Ahead

Okay, futurology is a pointless discipline–its practitioners, usually given to apocalyptic jeremiads or Panglossian warblings, set the scene with too broad a rhetorical brush and are inevitably disappointed by the moderation of any changes that come. Or, contrariwise, some events take everybody by surprise: few in 1935 could have coherently anticipated the effects (social, cultural, political) of the atom bomb just ten years later. (tomndebb, correct that assertion if it’s grievously wrong)

On the other hand, future conditions can be gleaned from current trends, to an extent–especially with a firm handle on history. Toffler’s The Third Wave and Bagidikian’s The Media Monopoly were both prescient visions of things to come (if over-bright and over-dark, respectively).

With that in mind, then, let’s extrapolate: where are we headed in the next twenty years or so? What political, cultural, social, or technological trends do you see continuing or maturing? Why, and to what effect? There’s no need to be comprehensive–one or two wild speculations will suffice. :slight_smile: This could get interesting, 'specially if competing visions are offered.

For my part, a coupla thoughts on the future:

  1. Here in the U.S., I think we’re moving closer to a fee-for-service society. Not to the extent of Brazil, necessarily, where money spent on private security firms outstrips the funding for local police, but I see the continued privatization of many things. Certainly the Internet–also parks, beaches, roads, utilities, health care, security, all to a greater degree than today. As evidence, I present the ascendancy of market liberal determinism as a cross-ideological Weltanschauung–the belief that government is increasingly vestigial except as an instrument to facilitate the freedom of markets. (Not that the government bureaucracy won’t be alive and well–a primary function of government has always been self-perpetuation, after all.) Also, anectodally, the proliferation of gated communities, and the concomitant disconnect with civic nationalism.

  2. By the same token globally, the emergence of corporations as something akin to autonomous nation-states will occur (in my opinion) within the next quarter-century. Multinationals increasingly transcend national sovereignty, and the institutional structure of international law is largely designed to faciliate business interests (vis a vis the World Trade Organization’s ability to nullify national policy, and the IMF’s role as world debtor and shaper of national policy); it’s not a stretch to imagine corporations assuming a non-territorial sovereignty of their own, which could change the scope of geopolitics considerably.

Any thoughts? Who’s next?

I predict that Madonna will become a born-again Christian. Hey, it could happen, and she’s done everything else…

:smiley:

“Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast!” - the White Queen

groan Not that anyone would notice, probably, but “anectodally” at the end of the fifth paragraph is obviously s’posed to be anecdotally.

Stupid transposition. ::grumble::

I don’t know if this website answers the OP, but it sure is interesting. http://www.technocopia.com/

I’d agree with point #1, that we’re moving that way, but I’d have to disagree with point #2. I don’t think you’re allowing for the Stupidity Factor. Somebody once said, “Against stupidity, the gods themselves contend in vain.” There’s a sub-factor (if that’s a word) of this called the Rabid Nationalism Factor, which is what starts wars.

For example, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to have the Chinese Rabid Nationalism Factor suddenly kick in one of these days, and have them slam the doors shut on whatever modified form of capitalism they’re using these days.

I get a real kick out of reading stuff from the 1970’s, where they’re predicting how it’s going to be in the year 2000. I recently read one book covering back-to-the-land organic farming (agriculture, not hobbyist stuff), in which the author confidently predicted that at the rate California’s population was growing, by the year 2000 they wouldn’t be able to export any food from the San Joaquin and Imperial Valleys, they’d need it all just to feed Californians.

Also, there’s the “Surprise!” factor, in which unexpected things keep happening. Computer books from the 1960’s and 70’s make no mention of the personal computer, because Steven Jobs was still in kindergarten. Then there are natural forces, like droughts, that affect things unexpectedly, not to mention the rise and fall of various tinpot dictators, like Saddam Hussein.

So, yeah, I think it’s neat to speculate, but without making any hard and fast predictions, because you never know what’s gonna come back and bite you in the derriere!

“Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast!” - the White Queen

Notthemama; it must be nice to be so knowledgeable that you are entitled to comment on the sincerity of the private religious practices of people you have never met.


“We must jump up and down and down, and around and around.”
- Tori Amos

Why, if it profits the policy-makers? If nationalism is so significant a factor–greater than political pragmatism, or market liberalism–then why has the U.S. government aided the transfer of international sovereignty to NGOs and corporations? There’s a great quote by historian William Appleman Williams to the effect that “war represent[s] the failure of policy.” To the extent that that’s true–and he was referring to the Open Door Notes in particular, and government-sponsored economic expansion in general–the transformation of corporations into political entities, with power rivalling that of states, has been the fulfillment of over a century’s worth of national policy, rather than a deviation from structural nationalism.

And I’m afraid I don’t understand your first point, Notthe: how does the Stupidity Factor come into play, except by allowing policy-makers to pursue profitable short-term goals which may have unforeseen consequences to national autonomy in the near future?

Thanks for the link; I’ll check it out.

Hey, I just found a sense of humor lying over there in the corner. Anyone need it? Mergirl? You look like you could use one.
As for future prediction- I’ll refrain, thank you very much. Notthemama is right in pointing out all of the foibles and follies that screw up future prediction. Heck just consider how many books printed last year were telling us how miserable this year would be after that Y2K Bug…


JMCJ

“Y’know, I would invite y’all to go feltch a dead goat, but that would be abuse of a perfectly good dead goat and an insult to all those who engage in that practice for fun.” -weirddave, set to maximum flame

John, you’re one up on me if you can even find where Notthe said anything about anyone’s religious sincerity. I don’t see it. :confused: At first I though Mergirl had posted to the wrong thread by accident.

sigh I will acknowledge that I went off a little quickly on that one. I just get so sick and tired of the misinformation and lies. Imagine having people tell you every day that you were a hippopotamus, and you having to set them straight, if not to their faces, at least in your own mind. Exhausting.

Sorry, Notthemama. You really aren’t any worse than the next schmo-on-the-street. I shouldn’t have treated you that way.


“We must jump up and down and down, and around and around.”
- Tori Amos

::not wishing to contribute to the hijacking of his own thread, but getting pulled right in anyway::

Faint praise indeed. :smiley: Don’t worry, Notthe, I think you’re better than the next schmo-on-the-street. The last schmo-on-the-street, though, was a different story.

'Sides which, mergirl, aren’t you a deist? (No point, really, just want to flaunt the fact that I actually do read other threads.)

Oh god, I didn’t want to insult Notthemama again, but in trying to make up, I made things worse!
deep breath Okay, again; I lost my temper too quickly. I am sorry.

NOW, WHAT I WAS GOING TO SAY ON THE TOPIC:

I agree that projections can bite one on the ass. There are too many variables.
I think the only thing we’re any good at predicting is what we’ll wear tomorrow and when the next earthquake will be.

An extreme example of this is the cult that burned in the church because the leader’s prophecies kept on failing to come true. Whoops!


“We must jump up and down and down, and around and around.”
- Tori Amos

::: completely blank look :::

What? Huh? Whazzat…?

Hey, Mergirl, if you’re gonna cut my head off, you could at least say why, OK?

Oh, geez, I just realized–you’re the Madonna fan, right? Oh, my sweet Lord, and here I am makin’ a slighting remark about the Bay City Babe. Can you ever forgive me?

Geez. Lighten UP, willya? :rolleyes:

“Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast!” - the White Queen

You are forgiven. Go, and sin no more.

:slight_smile:

“Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast!” - the White Queen

P.S. I’m considering changing my sig line to, “Not really any worse than the next schmo-on-the-street.”

:smiley:

Unless somebody else wants it…?

:smiley:


“Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast!” - the White Queen

::: sudden interest :::

Are you really a hippopotamus? :smiley:


“Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast!” - the White Queen

[additional hijack–Sorry, Gadarene]
You’re kidding me. You mean the U.S. Geological Survey finally got the problem licked? I hadn’t heard anything about it. That’s great! So, when’s the Big One? I live in the Midwest, so actually I don’t give a rat’s derriere, but if Southern California’s gonna fall into the ocean, I gotta stock up on videos, you know?

:cool:

Oh, nuts, I just realized–of course they’re not gonna SAY, people would just panic. Can you at least give me a hint, from one Doper to another?

[/hijack, gotta go stock up on toilet paper]


“Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast!” - the White Queen

I think the OP’s point #2 is Right On.
Some corporations are already financially bigger than some country’s yearly budgets and (at least in the U.S.) the restrictions against corporate growth are virtually non-existent.
The money these giant conglomerates can throw around is already staggering, and it only stands to get bigger. In the future, they could bail countries out of debt (for a price of course; i.e. monopoly rights).
Similarly, the mega-mergers will continue (there’s no reason to think otherwise).
In the next 20 years or so, I wouldn’t be surprised to see cross-industry mergers, like Coca-Cola merging with Nike, or something like that…who knows, corporations might become little nation states!

I predict that i will hit the submit reply button.

*Reading the tarot cards

I see beakerxf in a laundrymat in front of a dryer with an armful of wet clothes, but with no quarters.

That was my safe prediction just so I can claim a 50% prediction rate later on.

Here’s another one: As our nation becomes more racially/culturally/religiously diverse the hardline ultraconservative rightwing types will feel less and less like they have a voice and will lash out more. So I predict a sharp rise in domestic terrorism, much worse than what we have now.

The “stupidity factor” just means that no matter how tidily you may line things up, just when you think you’ve got a handle on it, somebody somewhere is going to behave with amazing stupidity and muck it up. It could be a war, it could be something like that guy who single-handedly crashed Barron’s Bank a while ago (I bet all the corporations that did business with Barron’s sure were surprised!). Just when folks begin to think that the Mideast might settle down and join the adult party, the Ayatollah Khomeini comes to power, Americans are held hostage in the embassy for two years, and suddenly all bets are off. Like that.

As far as constructing actual scenarios that describe what “life in the future” might be like, I think there is one big factor that makes for two completely different ways you could go. That’s petroleum.

You can’t deny that our whole post-industrial culture runs on petroleum, not only literally in the form of engine fuel, but also in terms of the gazillions of products that are made out of plastic. Plastic is essential to the survival of most of our industries. I don’t just mean “industries that manufacture things made out of plastic”, I mean plastic is just everywhere, in the form of widgets and gadgets and seat covers and Scotch tape and…Take away the plastic, and the whole post-industrial revolution economy changes drastically.

Depending on who you listen to, we (meaning the world) either have barely enough petroleum to get us through Christmas, or else we have enough for the next 500 years. Using those two “facts” as a base, you can construct either a scenario that has us all driving solar cars in the next 10 years (not to mention breathing cleaner air and wearing natural fibers), or a scenario that has us going ever onward and upward, with ever more astounding uses of plastic, into a bright shiny sci-fi future, all of us with wireless Internet implants in our heads.

Averaging out the two, we have enough petroleum for the next 250 years. However, there is also the matter of how much the petroleum costs. The economic boom of the 90’s has been fueled by cheap oil. When oil (and gas) prices went up last month, among the loudest screams that I remember hearing on the news was Proctor & Gamble. Oh, gee, it seems that the price of their raw materials went up. Too bad, huh? In the 70’s we had “stag-flation” (remember that? :rolleyes: ), mainly because the price of oil went up drastically, courtesy of OPEC, and changed all the rules.

As far as large multinational corporations getting bigger and bigger, yeah, I agree, but I don’t think that that will affect the way the world is governed at a whole. You still have the Man in the Street to deal with, and as long as the Man in the Street still hates the guts of the Man Across the Street, you’re always going to have boundaries between various governments, which are usually organized along cultural lines. “We, the people…” meaning “us” as opposed to “them over there”. The big multinationals will just carry on pretty much as they have been, quietly taking care of business in the background. As long as you have sectarian divisions and long-standing feuds (Arab/Jew, Protestant/Catholic, Hindu/Muslim, French/German, vegan/carnivore), you’re never going to have one nation, under IBM, with liberty and justice for all.

“Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast!” - the White Queen