**FUCK THIS. **
When did Mafia become “Pass random shit around” ?
NETA : I didn’t even know that we had parchment.
I wonder what the JSexton score on parchment is.
I’m Dead Serious.
The pass the potato game is common in Mahaloth’s games. Goes back at least as far as screamers. And probably before that.
Why? For both parts really.
And for the record Meeko, this is the kind of thing that gets you a raft of shit in every single game. If you truly believe I’m scum, then VOTE ME. You constantly have this idea that if people think you’re scum you’re bad at this game, or failing, or something. You are constantly worried about how people perceive you. That is NOT something a Townie should be worrying about. Play this game long enough and you WILL get mislynched. It isn’t the end of the world. It provides information to your side. Just relax and stop worrying about perceptions and worry about finding scum.
In other news: Some of you may remember that I used to have a vote-analysis program that I used. After Colorless Mafia, many folks said that my program would have returned bad answers, and so I stopped using it until after I had checked to see if it would indeed have worked. I have now done so. In fact, my vote-analysis program gave very weak results for that game, the equivalent of shrugging its shoulders and saying “I don’t know”, but it did not give bad results.
Given that, even in a game where everyone said it would fail horribly, it still was not fooled into giving bad output, and given that even when I was Scum in Screamers and actively trying to fool it, it still gave good output, I have come to the conclusion that my vote analysis program is actually robust, and I am deploying it this game.
To explain the program: The core assumption is that the proportion of Town votes that are for Scum will be greater than the proportion of Scum votes that are for Scum. This is counting all Town votes, since genuine Townies are sincere with all of their votes, but only counting Scum votes which are in place at the end of a Day, since Scum might vote for a teammate but then unvote so as not to put them at risk of a lynch. Votes from unanimous Days (like toDay looks likely to be) are not counted, since unanimous votes contain no information. What the program does is it cycles through every possible arrangement of Town and Scum, rejects those that are inconsistent with the core assumption, rejects all those that are inconsistent with claims, and out of all the rest, counts up all the cases where each player is Scum.
Source code will follow in a second post, since this is too long.
The results, with the assumption that we started with no less than three and no more than five Scum, and assuming I’m innocent (if you don’t trust me, you should probably ignore all of this entirely):
Total number of possibilities: 490
0
special ed 0
Red Skeezix 73
Drain Bead 86
Meeko 66
Astral Rejection 72
One and Only Wanderers 126
Telcontar 0
Chronos 0
GuiriEnEspana 31
Snickers 91
Chipacabra 0
Pleonast 0
Inner Stickler 77
Oredigger/Doctor Who 69
Nanook 237
MHaye 138
HoopyFrood 116
cucuy 70
Suburban Plankton 490
peekercpa 118
Natlaw 324
Gadarene 0
USCDiver 134
The results, with the added assumption that Natlaw is Scum (as I believe will be confirmed at Dusk):
Total number of possibilities: 324
0
special ed 0
Red Skeezix 53
Drain Bead 59
Meeko 14
Astral Rejection 72
One and Only Wanderers 78
Telcontar 0
Chronos 0
GuiriEnEspana 7
Snickers 72
Chipacabra 0
Pleonast 0
Inner Stickler 57
Oredigger/Doctor Who 54
Nanook 71
MHaye 81
HoopyFrood 73
cucuy 55
Suburban Plankton 324
peekercpa 61
Natlaw 324
Gadarene 0
USCDiver 80
The number by each person’s name, divided by the total number of scenarios, can be roughly interpreted as the probability that that person is Scum. The 0 at the beginning of the player list is a result of a work-around to avoid the bug that cropped up in Screamers: I introduced a phantom “player zero” who’s listed as automatically Town. Nanook’s score is inflated by the fact that he’s made an unconfirmed claim; I recommend deciding on whether to trust him independently of this program’s results. Natlaw’s score is inflated both by this effect and by the fact that Nanook has claimed him Scum. Anyone with a C compiler can edit this code to add or remove assumptions and try it again: To assume a player is Town, go to the “add other assumptions” section and add another line like the ones already there (the number is the player’s number on the sign-up list). So, for instance, if I wanted to assume that Red Skeezix (#2 on the sign-up list) is Town, I’d add
if(!players[2])
and if I wanted to assume that he was Scum, I’d add
if(players[2])
without the exclamation mark. Oh, and if you do run it, I recommend redirecting standard output: The summaries I posted are output to stderr; the output to stdout is a full listing of every possible arrangement of Scum, which gets long at this stage of the game.
The source code:
[noparse]
#include <stdio.h>
#define n_players 24 /* Number of players under analysis */
#define max_scum 5 /* Maximum expected number of Scum */
#define min_scum 3 /* Minimum expected number of Scum */
#define n_loop 16777216 /* 2^n_players */
#define margin 0 /* How much Scummier than marginal the Scum are */
main()
{
int players[n_players]; /* Stores the alignment of each player. 0 = Town, 1 = Scum */
unsigned long int players_binary;
unsigned long int players_binary_shifting;
char names[n_players][26] = {"", "special ed", "Red Skeezix", "Drain Bead", "Meeko", "Astral Rejection", "One and Only Wanderers", "Telcontar", "Chronos", "GuiriEnEspana", "Snickers", "Chipacabra", "Pleonast", "Inner Stickler", "Oredigger/Doctor Who", "Nanook", "MHaye", "HoopyFrood", "cucuy", "Suburban Plankton", "peekercpa", "Natlaw", "Gadarene", "USCDiver"};
int n_scum;
int buses; /* Number of times Scum voted for Scum */
int attacks; /* Number of times Town voted for Scum */
int i;
int score[n_players];
int total_scenarios = 0;
int town_votes;
int scum_votes;
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) score* = 0; /* Initialize everyone's score */
for(players_binary=0; players_binary < n_loop; players_binary++) {
players_binary_shifting = players_binary;
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
players* = players_binary_shifting & 1; /* Populate the players[] array according to the value of players_binary */
players_binary_shifting = players_binary_shifting >> 1;
}
n_scum = 0;
buses = 0;
attacks = 0;
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
if(players* == 1) n_scum++; /* Count the number of Scum */
}
/* Count number of votes cast by Town */
town_votes = 0;
if(!players[0]) town_votes += 0; // cast 0
if(!players[1]) town_votes += 6; // special ed cast 6
if(!players[2]) town_votes += 3; // Red Skeezix cast 3
if(!players[3]) town_votes += 5; // Drain Bead cast 5
if(!players[4]) town_votes += 6; // Meeko cast 6
if(!players[5]) town_votes += 5; // Astral Rejection cast 5
if(!players[6]) town_votes += 6; // One and Only Wanderers cast 6
if(!players[7]) town_votes += 2; // Telcontar cast 2
if(!players[8]) town_votes += 5; // Chronos cast 5
if(!players[9]) town_votes += 5; // GuiriEnEspana cast 5
if(!players[10]) town_votes += 3; // Snickers cast 3
if(!players[11]) town_votes += 3; // Chipacabra cast 3
if(!players[12]) town_votes += 10; // Pleonast cast 10
if(!players[13]) town_votes += 3; // Inner Stickler cast 3
if(!players[14]) town_votes += 2; // Oredigger/Doctor Who cast 2
if(!players[15]) town_votes += 4; // Nanook cast 4
if(!players[16]) town_votes += 3; // MHaye cast 3
if(!players[17]) town_votes += 6; // HoopyFrood cast 6
if(!players[18]) town_votes += 2; // cucuy cast 2
if(!players[19]) town_votes += 3; // Suburban Plankton cast 3
if(!players[20]) town_votes += 10; // peekercpa cast 10
if(!players[21]) town_votes += 4; // Natlaw cast 4
if(!players[22]) town_votes += 3; // Gadarene cast 3
if(!players[23]) town_votes += 3; // USCDiver cast 3
/* Count number of votes cast by Scum */
scum_votes = 0;
if(players[0]) scum_votes += 0; // cast 0
if(players[1]) scum_votes += 3; // special ed cast 3
if(players[2]) scum_votes += 3; // Red Skeezix cast 3
if(players[3]) scum_votes += 3; // Drain Bead cast 3
if(players[4]) scum_votes += 3; // Meeko cast 3
if(players[5]) scum_votes += 3; // Astral Rejection cast 3
if(players[6]) scum_votes += 3; // One and Only Wanderers cast 3
if(players[7]) scum_votes += 1; // Telcontar cast 1
if(players[8]) scum_votes += 3; // Chronos cast 3
if(players[9]) scum_votes += 3; // GuiriEnEspana cast 3
if(players[10]) scum_votes += 2; // Snickers cast 2
if(players[11]) scum_votes += 2; // Chipacabra cast 2
if(players[12]) scum_votes += 3; // Pleonast cast 3
if(players[13]) scum_votes += 3; // Inner Stickler cast 3
if(players[14]) scum_votes += 2; // Oredigger/Doctor Who cast 2
if(players[15]) scum_votes += 3; // Nanook cast 3
if(players[16]) scum_votes += 3; // MHaye cast 3
if(players[17]) scum_votes += 3; // HoopyFrood cast 3
if(players[18]) scum_votes += 2; // cucuy cast 2
if(players[19]) scum_votes += 1; // Suburban Plankton cast 1
if(players[20]) scum_votes += 3; // peekercpa cast 3
if(players[21]) scum_votes += 3; // Natlaw cast 3
if(players[22]) scum_votes += 2; // Gadarene cast 2
if(players[23]) scum_votes += 3; // USCDiver cast 3
/* Count number of buses-- Only counting final votes */
if(players[4] && players[12]) buses++; // Meeko voted Pleonast
if(players[5] && players[1]) buses++; // Astral Rejection voted special ed
if(players[7] && players[1]) buses++; // Telcontar voted special ed
if(players[16] && players[1]) buses++; // MHaye voted special ed
if(players[19] && players[1]) buses++; // Suburban Plankton voted special ed
if(players[11] && players[1]) buses++; // Chipacabra voted special ed
if(players[8] && players[19]) buses++; // Chronos voted Suburban Plankton
if(players[2] && players[19]) buses++; // Red Skeezix voted Suburban Plankton
if(players[14] && players[19]) buses++; // Oredigger/Doctor Who voted Suburban Plankton
if(players[12] && players[19]) buses++; // Pleonast voted Suburban Plankton
if(players[18] && players[19]) buses++; // cucuy voted Suburban Plankton
if(players[15] && players[19]) buses++; // Nanook voted Suburban Plankton
if(players[22] && players[19]) buses++; // Gadarene voted Suburban Plankton
if(players[1] && players[19]) buses++; // special ed voted Suburban Plankton
if(players[9] && players[19]) buses++; // GuiriEnEspana voted Suburban Plankton
if(players[3] && players[19]) buses++; // Drain Bead voted Suburban Plankton
if(players[13] && players[19]) buses++; // Inner Stickler voted Suburban Plankton
if(players[21] && players[20]) buses++; // Natlaw voted peekercpa
if(players[23] && players[5]) buses++; // USCDiver voted Astral Rejection
if(players[17] && players[11]) buses++; // HoopyFrood voted Chipacabra
if(players[6] && players[11]) buses++; // One and Only Wanderers voted Chipacabra
if(players[20] && players[6]) buses++; // peekercpa voted One and Only Wanderers
if(players[2] && players[5]) buses++; // Red Skeezix voted Astral Rejection
if(players[8] && players[1]) buses++; // Chronos voted special ed
if(players[17] && players[11]) buses++; // HoopyFrood voted Chipacabra
if(players[22] && players[11]) buses++; // Gadarene voted Chipacabra
if(players[11] && players[1]) buses++; // Chipacabra voted special ed
if(players[3] && players[11]) buses++; // Drain Bead voted Chipacabra
if(players[12] && players[20]) buses++; // Pleonast voted peekercpa
if(players[15] && players[11]) buses++; // Nanook voted Chipacabra
if(players[1] && players[11]) buses++; // special ed voted Chipacabra
if(players[20] && players[17]) buses++; // peekercpa voted HoopyFrood
if(players[18] && players[11]) buses++; // cucuy voted Chipacabra
if(players[6] && players[11]) buses++; // One and Only Wanderers voted Chipacabra
if(players[9] && players[11]) buses++; // GuiriEnEspana voted Chipacabra
if(players[23] && players[11]) buses++; // USCDiver voted Chipacabra
if(players[21] && players[11]) buses++; // Natlaw voted Chipacabra
if(players[5] && players[1]) buses++; // Astral Rejection voted special ed
if(players[4] && players[20]) buses++; // Meeko voted peekercpa
if(players[13] && players[12]) buses++; // Inner Stickler voted Pleonast
if(players[16] && players[11]) buses++; // MHaye voted Chipacabra
if(players[10] && players[1]) buses++; // Snickers voted special ed
if(players[8] && players[1]) buses++; // Chronos voted special ed
if(players[2] && players[5]) buses++; // Red Skeezix voted Astral Rejection
if(players[12] && players[20]) buses++; // Pleonast voted peekercpa
if(players[4] && players[12]) buses++; // Meeko voted Pleonast
if(players[15] && players[10]) buses++; // Nanook voted Snickers
if(players[23] && players[10]) buses++; // USCDiver voted Snickers
if(players[1] && players[5]) buses++; // special ed voted Astral Rejection
if(players[20] && players[17]) buses++; // peekercpa voted HoopyFrood
if(players[14] && players[1]) buses++; // Oredigger/Doctor Who voted special ed
if(players[3] && players[5]) buses++; // Drain Bead voted Astral Rejection
if(players[5] && players[3]) buses++; // Astral Rejection voted Drain Bead
if(players[21] && players[1]) buses++; // Natlaw voted special ed
if(players[9] && players[1]) buses++; // GuiriEnEspana voted special ed
if(players[17] && players[5]) buses++; // HoopyFrood voted Astral Rejection
if(players[13] && players[5]) buses++; // Inner Stickler voted Astral Rejection
if(players[10] && players[12]) buses++; // Snickers voted Pleonast
if(players[16] && players[1]) buses++; // MHaye voted special ed
if(players[6] && players[1]) buses++; // One and Only Wanderers voted special ed
/* Count number of attacks */
if(!players[20] && players[12]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted Pleonast
if(!players[5] && players[12]) attacks++; // Astral Rejection voted Pleonast
if(!players[4] && players[12]) attacks++; // Meeko voted Pleonast
if(!players[19] && players[12]) attacks++; // Suburban Plankton voted Pleonast
if(!players[20] && players[18]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted cucuy
if(!players[9] && players[1]) attacks++; // GuiriEnEspana voted special ed
if(!players[20] && players[1]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted special ed
if(!players[5] && players[1]) attacks++; // Astral Rejection voted special ed
if(!players[8] && players[1]) attacks++; // Chronos voted special ed
if(!players[9] && players[1]) attacks++; // GuiriEnEspana voted special ed
if(!players[7] && players[1]) attacks++; // Telcontar voted special ed
if(!players[16] && players[1]) attacks++; // MHaye voted special ed
if(!players[19] && players[1]) attacks++; // Suburban Plankton voted special ed
if(!players[11] && players[1]) attacks++; // Chipacabra voted special ed
if(!players[8] && players[19]) attacks++; // Chronos voted Suburban Plankton
if(!players[7] && players[19]) attacks++; // Telcontar voted Suburban Plankton
if(!players[2] && players[19]) attacks++; // Red Skeezix voted Suburban Plankton
if(!players[17] && players[19]) attacks++; // HoopyFrood voted Suburban Plankton
if(!players[14] && players[19]) attacks++; // Oredigger/Doctor Who voted Suburban Plankton
if(!players[12] && players[19]) attacks++; // Pleonast voted Suburban Plankton
if(!players[18] && players[19]) attacks++; // cucuy voted Suburban Plankton
if(!players[11] && players[19]) attacks++; // Chipacabra voted Suburban Plankton
if(!players[15] && players[19]) attacks++; // Nanook voted Suburban Plankton
if(!players[22] && players[19]) attacks++; // Gadarene voted Suburban Plankton
if(!players[20] && players[19]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted Suburban Plankton
if(!players[1] && players[19]) attacks++; // special ed voted Suburban Plankton
if(!players[9] && players[19]) attacks++; // GuiriEnEspana voted Suburban Plankton
if(!players[3] && players[19]) attacks++; // Drain Bead voted Suburban Plankton
if(!players[13] && players[19]) attacks++; // Inner Stickler voted Suburban Plankton
if(!players[6] && players[19]) attacks++; // One and Only Wanderers voted Suburban Plankton
if(!players[17] && players[8]) attacks++; // HoopyFrood voted Chronos
if(!players[1] && players[8]) attacks++; // special ed voted Chronos
if(!players[12] && players[17]) attacks++; // Pleonast voted HoopyFrood
if(!players[8] && players[23]) attacks++; // Chronos voted USCDiver
if(!players[3] && players[23]) attacks++; // Drain Bead voted USCDiver
if(!players[22] && players[23]) attacks++; // Gadarene voted USCDiver
if(!players[20] && players[15]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted Nanook
if(!players[19] && players[20]) attacks++; // Suburban Plankton voted peekercpa
if(!players[21] && players[20]) attacks++; // Natlaw voted peekercpa
if(!players[1] && players[20]) attacks++; // special ed voted peekercpa
if(!players[6] && players[5]) attacks++; // One and Only Wanderers voted Astral Rejection
if(!players[23] && players[5]) attacks++; // USCDiver voted Astral Rejection
if(!players[15] && players[5]) attacks++; // Nanook voted Astral Rejection
if(!players[12] && players[16]) attacks++; // Pleonast voted MHaye
if(!players[17] && players[11]) attacks++; // HoopyFrood voted Chipacabra
if(!players[20] && players[11]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted Chipacabra
if(!players[6] && players[11]) attacks++; // One and Only Wanderers voted Chipacabra
if(!players[20] && players[6]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted One and Only Wanderers
if(!players[2] && players[5]) attacks++; // Red Skeezix voted Astral Rejection
if(!players[8] && players[1]) attacks++; // Chronos voted special ed
if(!players[17] && players[11]) attacks++; // HoopyFrood voted Chipacabra
if(!players[22] && players[11]) attacks++; // Gadarene voted Chipacabra
if(!players[11] && players[1]) attacks++; // Chipacabra voted special ed
if(!players[1] && players[5]) attacks++; // special ed voted Astral Rejection
if(!players[4] && players[1]) attacks++; // Meeko voted special ed
if(!players[20] && players[6]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted One and Only Wanderers
if(!players[3] && players[11]) attacks++; // Drain Bead voted Chipacabra
if(!players[12] && players[16]) attacks++; // Pleonast voted MHaye
if(!players[12] && players[20]) attacks++; // Pleonast voted peekercpa
if(!players[15] && players[11]) attacks++; // Nanook voted Chipacabra
if(!players[1] && players[11]) attacks++; // special ed voted Chipacabra
if(!players[4] && players[12]) attacks++; // Meeko voted Pleonast
if(!players[20] && players[17]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted HoopyFrood
if(!players[18] && players[11]) attacks++; // cucuy voted Chipacabra
if(!players[6] && players[11]) attacks++; // One and Only Wanderers voted Chipacabra
if(!players[9] && players[11]) attacks++; // GuiriEnEspana voted Chipacabra
if(!players[23] && players[11]) attacks++; // USCDiver voted Chipacabra
if(!players[10] && players[11]) attacks++; // Snickers voted Chipacabra
if(!players[12] && players[4]) attacks++; // Pleonast voted Meeko
if(!players[21] && players[11]) attacks++; // Natlaw voted Chipacabra
if(!players[5] && players[1]) attacks++; // Astral Rejection voted special ed
if(!players[4] && players[20]) attacks++; // Meeko voted peekercpa
if(!players[13] && players[12]) attacks++; // Inner Stickler voted Pleonast
if(!players[16] && players[11]) attacks++; // MHaye voted Chipacabra
if(!players[10] && players[1]) attacks++; // Snickers voted special ed
if(!players[4] && players[1]) attacks++; // Meeko voted special ed
if(!players[5] && players[1]) attacks++; // Astral Rejection voted special ed
if(!players[8] && players[1]) attacks++; // Chronos voted special ed
if(!players[2] && players[5]) attacks++; // Red Skeezix voted Astral Rejection
if(!players[12] && players[4]) attacks++; // Pleonast voted Meeko
if(!players[12] && players[20]) attacks++; // Pleonast voted peekercpa
if(!players[12] && players[16]) attacks++; // Pleonast voted MHaye
if(!players[4] && players[12]) attacks++; // Meeko voted Pleonast
if(!players[12] && players[3]) attacks++; // Pleonast voted Drain Bead
if(!players[3] && players[12]) attacks++; // Drain Bead voted Pleonast
if(!players[15] && players[10]) attacks++; // Nanook voted Snickers
if(!players[23] && players[10]) attacks++; // USCDiver voted Snickers
if(!players[1] && players[5]) attacks++; // special ed voted Astral Rejection
if(!players[20] && players[17]) attacks++; // peekercpa voted HoopyFrood
if(!players[6] && players[5]) attacks++; // One and Only Wanderers voted Astral Rejection
if(!players[17] && players[20]) attacks++; // HoopyFrood voted peekercpa
if(!players[14] && players[1]) attacks++; // Oredigger/Doctor Who voted special ed
if(!players[3] && players[5]) attacks++; // Drain Bead voted Astral Rejection
if(!players[21] && players[12]) attacks++; // Natlaw voted Pleonast
if(!players[5] && players[3]) attacks++; // Astral Rejection voted Drain Bead
if(!players[21] && players[1]) attacks++; // Natlaw voted special ed
if(!players[9] && players[1]) attacks++; // GuiriEnEspana voted special ed
if(!players[17] && players[5]) attacks++; // HoopyFrood voted Astral Rejection
if(!players[13] && players[5]) attacks++; // Inner Stickler voted Astral Rejection
if(!players[10] && players[12]) attacks++; // Snickers voted Pleonast
if(!players[16] && players[1]) attacks++; // MHaye voted special ed
if(!players[6] && players[1]) attacks++; // One and Only Wanderers voted special ed
if((min_scum<=n_scum) && (n_scum<=max_scum)) /* Throw out cases with wrong number of Scum */
if((attacks*scum_votes) > (buses*town_votes + margin)) /* Throw out cases with Scum not voting Scummily */
/* Add other assumptions (delete or add any considered appropriate) */
if(!players[0]) // Player 0 does not exist
if(!players[8]) // Assume Chronos is Town
if(players[19]) // Plankton flipped Scum
if(!players[7]) // Telcontar flipped Town
if(!players[11]) // Chipacabra flipped Town
if(!players[22]) // Gadarene flipped Town
if(!players[1]) // special ed flipped Town
if(players[21] || !players[5]) // Natlaw vouches for Astral
if(!players[12]) // Pleonast flipped Town
if(players[15] || !players[4]) // Nanook vouches for Meeko
if(players[15] || !players[9]) // Nanook vouches for Guiri
if(players[15] || players[21]) // Nanook counterclaims Natlaw
if(players[21]) // Assume we don't trust Natlaw
{
total_scenarios++;
/* Output all scenarios */
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
/* if(players* == 0) printf("%s ",names*); */
if(players* == 1) {
printf("%s ",names*);
score*++;
}
}
printf("
");
}
}
/* Output scores */
fprintf(stderr,"Total number of possibilities: %d
",total_scenarios);
for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) fprintf(stderr,"%s %d
",names*,score*);
return(0);
}[/noparse]
Nobody apart from scum knew Ed was town prior to his lynch yesterday.
Astral was leading the vote Ed second. I believed Ed to be town. I also knew a lot of people thought he was scum due to the failed handshake fiasco. This discounted Ed’s usefulness. as he was likely to be a lynch candidate again.
Prior to the Nat claim, I believed Astral to be scum. Nat’s claim changed that however. I couldn’t think of a reason for a non pressured detective claim from Nat so I had to believe him at that time. Which made Astral confirmed town.
So I had to save Astral and kill Ed, even though I believed Ed to be town
On Nat’s claim. The only 2 possibilities that make sense to me are
-
(less likely)
Astral is a highly powered scum and Nat was trying to save him -
(more likely)
Nat thought it was too late to save Astral, and was hoping to get cred for having tried to save him, maybe even avoiding the need to claim today, as he would have had a sucessful known result already.
I am leaning towards 2 at the moment, but am not locked in.
The big question though is, why did **Natlaw **think that he needed to stick his neck out to gain townie cred? He wasn’t under any pressure at that time or any time prior. It was too late in the Day to expect a counter-claim to out the Real Detective.
I’m having a hard time reconciling the scummy timing of his pseudo-claim late Yesterday and his incredibly awkward half-claim Today with the fact that, as a Scum, he would have had others to bounce his claim off during the Night.
Has there ever been an investigative Third-Party? Maybe he thought there wasn’t a Town detective to counter-claim but being a lone third party player did not have anyone else to help him hone his claim.
BTW, Here’s the vote counts for analysis. Let me know if I missed anything.
Day 1 Vote Tally
Suburban Plankton(12) :Chronos[372-542][1138], [del]Telcontar[578-883][/del], Red Skeezix[596-897][923], [del]Hoopy Frood[639-926][/del], Doctor Who[643], Pleonast[644-884][1004], Cucuy[739], [del]Chipacabra[774-930][/del], Nanook Of the North Shore[797], Gadarene[931], Peekercpa[945], Special Ed[947], Guiri[1009], Drain Bead[1075], Inner Stickler[1091], [del]One And Only Wanderers[1097-1131][/del]
Special Ed(5) :[del]Guiri[345-351][878-1009][/del], [del]Peekercpa[800-856][/del], Astral Rejection[823], [del]Chronos[824-1138][/del], Telcontar[883], MHaye[887], Suburban Plankton[954], Chipacabra[1005]
Chipacabra(2) :Hoopy Frood[1013], [del]Peekercpa[1019-1132][/del], One And Only Wanderers[1134]
Pleonast(1) :[del]Peekercpa[304-328][/del], [del]Astral Rejection[655-684][/del], Meeko[778], [del]Suburban Plankton[796-954][/del]
Peekercpa(1) :[del]Suburban Plankton[605-196][/del], Natlaw[764], [del]Special Ed[808-947][/del]
Astral Rejection(1) :[del]One And Only Wanderers[612-1097][/del], USCDiver[614], [del]Nanook Of the North Shore[673-797][/del]
One And Only Wanderers(1) :Peekercpa[1132]
Cucuy(0) :[del]Peekercpa[328-445][447-454][/del]
Chronos(0) :[del]Hoopy Frood[404-506][/del], [del]Special Ed[513-808][/del]
Hoopy Frood(0) :[del]Pleonast[408-644][/del]
USCDiver(0) :[del]Chronos[585-759][/del], [del]Drain Bead[617-1075][/del], [del]Gadarene[622-931][/del]
Nanook Of the North Shore(0) :[del]Peekercpa[586-798][/del]
MHaye(0) :[del]Pleonast[884-1004][/del]
Did Not Vote:Snickers
Day 2 Vote Tally
Chipacabra(11) :Hoopy Frood[1278], Gadarene[1299], Drain Bead[1406], Nanook Of the North Shore[1421], Special Ed[1462], Cucuy[1600], One And Only Wanderers[1609], Guiri[1613], USCDiver[1620], [del]Snickers[1629-1655][/del], Natlaw[1682], MHaye[1765]
Special Ed(4) :Chronos[1272], Chipacabra[1321], [del]Meeko[1336-1481][/del], Astral Rejection[1720], Snickers[1773]
Peekercpa(2) :Meeko[1737-1766][1766], Pleonast[1762]
Astral Rejection(1) :Red Skeezix[1289], [del]Special Ed[1324-1462][/del]
Pleonast(1) :[del]Meeko[1481-1737][/del], Inner Stickler[1761]
Hoopy Frood(1) :Peekercpa[1495]
One And Only Wanderers(0) :[del]Peekercpa[1381-1495][/del]
MHaye(0) :[del]Pleonast[1410-1631][/del]
Meeko(0) :[del]Pleonast[1631-1762][/del]
Did Not Vote:Doctor Who
Day 3 Vote Tally
Special Ed(6) :[del]Astral Rejection[1850-2078][/del], Chronos[1854], [del]Meeko[1861-1949][/del], Doctor Who[2064], Natlaw[2080], Guiri[2085], MHaye[2116], One And Only Wanderers[2126]
Astral Rejection(5) :Red Skeezix[1915], Hoopy Frood[2105], Special Ed[2004], [del]One And Only Wanderers[2036-2126][/del], Drain Bead[2069], Inner Stickler[2106]
Pleonast(2) :[del]Drain Bead[1959-2069][/del], [del]Natlaw[2073-2080][/del], Meeko[1942], Snickers[2109]
Snickers(2) :Nanook Of the North Shore[1996], USCDiver[2003]
Hoopy Frood(1) :Peekercpa[2018]
Peekercpa(1) :[del]Hoopy Frood[2045-2105][/del], Pleonast[2065]
Drain Bead(1) :Astral Rejection[2078]
Meeko(0) :[del]Pleonast[1941-2065][/del]
Did Not Vote:Cucuy
Next up, in my review to capture all the votes, I noticed that some people were asking me about how I know that scum can’t talk during the day (Must have missed this earlier). Well, I don’t know. I guess I just assumed, since that is the default and scum talking during the day while not particularly uncommon is not the norm. So take it for what it is.
I read Natlaw’s claim last Night, after getting back from a long evening’s HARPing. My reaction was “What, another Palantir?”
There are (as noted) only two possibilities for this; it’s either the Palantir of Orthanc or Minas Ithil, the latter of which was carted off to Barad-Dur hundreds of years back. So, Saruman, Sauron - or Pippin Took, who stole it from under Gandalf’s elbow.
Now, as I read the posts made since I turned the light off, an evil thought crept into my head. Natlaw is really too good a player to have made such a silly play (he’s been around over a year) although I will admit that false claims are not his forte, as the Evil League of Evil[sup]1[/isup] would attest. (Or maybe he was just horsing around and disguising his true skill level for a time like this.)
The overall effect of the events of last night - Natlaw’s and Nanook’s claims - is that Nanook’s claim gets a good deal of cred. So, are SAHM sacrificing Natlaw to bolster Nanook’s claim?
This is just an hypothesis at the moment. I’ve added Nanook to the list of players I want to reread tonight. I think that Natlaw’s lynch is a foregone conclusion Today, and will almost certainly reveal one of SAHM. Therefore I will be voting him later.
For now, and to get on record that I am suspicious of Nanook:
Vote Nanook.
[sup]1[/isup]We played a game based on Dr Horrible on Ile’s board a while back. Natlaw was one of the ELE.
Not too much later.
Unvote
Vote Natlaw
I am all for not blindly trusting things, but really? To pull off this kind of play scum would need to be VERY confident we had no town detective. I mean
Scum A claims limited detective
Scum B counter claims full detective.
Town C detective counters noth of em giving us 3 scum.
I cannot consider this a likely scum play.
More likely - Nat was trying to force a town detective counter claim, OR Nat was trying to establish himself as town OR Astral is the most powerful remaining scum and this gambit to save him was worth it on that basis
<snipped>
well i have a problem with this line of reasoning (what’s new, right?) by lynching ed it provides no information at all about what nat or astral are or could be. and even if astral is in fact town i just can’t believe that he wouldn’t have claimed if he was something other than niller. so you lynch one niller, who you believe to be town in lieu of another niller who you believe to be scum (in the absence of nat’s late minute info dump). it seems like the wiser course of action would be to get rid of a niller that provides information as opposed to just getting rid of someone you believe to be town.
i guess my general town strategy has been to try and keep suspected townies alive for as long as possible.
One of the main utilities of a detective is providing confirmed townies. It ain’t much use if you lynch them to prove the detective is a detective.
The other point here is that at that time I believed Nat’s claim. I couldn’t see a reason for a scum to false claim detective when under absolutely no pressure or scrutiny whatsoever. And bear in mind this was very close to day end. I made a decision based on the available info, and I stand by it. That the info has now changed does not mean I made a bad decision then. That’s like saying you shouldn’t have called someone in poker just because they then hit their 2 outer on the river.
<snipped - i took out my original post>
and wanderer don’t get me wrong. i can see how you constructed a path from point a to point b. i just don’t agree with it is all. is that fair enough?
And screamers was what, 5 months ago?
It looks like I was simply a port of call, and that the raft of shit has found it’s Flag State.
**
Nanook**, I wonder if I were to place a vote, if it would be more on your role, or more on the player. But, as I have no vote on you currently, the issue is moot, and I don’t think we should explore this space further. You say things that are hard to take, regardless of value. [Not making a statement about value.]
Chronos, on the other hand, has just taken up the space that I would explore if I were to unvote here.
FOS Chronos
Is he one of the few remaining scum, trying to eke out any plan he can so that he can have more “ammo” against town?
That, or Insanity is doing the same things over and over again, expecting different results. [Either or both are enough reasons to get on Chronos with the quickness here.]
But, I think Nat is forgone for today. Better or Worse.
Really, Meeko? Even after the hashcrumb, you think Chronos could be Scum?
The entirety of the FOS comes at the revelation that Chronos is using his vote program again.
I just question the timing.
Assume Nat is scum. What does that say for Astral?
If they both are scum, and we vote to lynch them, how many scum after that ?
How many “Tools” will the scum team have, after that?
Why not bring back something that was boon to scum?
Where is the town motivation in bringing back the program?
UN FOS Chronos
FOS Vote Program
If that makes you feel any better.