Lord of the Rings Mafia

[GuiriEnEspana]

Oops, forgot to vote:

Vote Natlaw

When he claimed to know Astral was a hobbit but was reluctant to reveal any more information about his role and other results, I thought he may have had a role similar to Chronos and was bluffing about his powers (as he’d effectively be VT, attracting a NK would have been a good play). I was surprised no-one else switched their vote as we had an apparent cop-confirmed Townie against someone several of us suspected was scum (intentionally ignoring deductions made based on PMs not in the public domain).

The posted PM looks like a doctored role PM for a watcher more than a cop. I’ve no idea what Natlaw’s intentions could have been except for the obvious: protect a strong scum power role or draw a cop counter-claim (or both). Given the lack of counter-claim to Suburban, there may have been a small chance that we didn’t have a cop and so the ploy could have been successful but what’s up with the typos and poor wording? Did scum skim the posts after Suburban’s claim?

I briefly entertained the thought that Nanook could also have been false-claiming but am now quite comfortable with his claim. I still think there was a lot of info to be gained by investigating Astral last Night but I have to trust he did what he thought best.

[USCDiver]

@GuiriEnEspana

I was surprised no-one else switched their vote as we had an apparent cop-confirmed Townie against someone several of us suspected was scum (intentionally ignoring deductions made based on PMs not in the public domain).

That’s probably because his half-hearted claim came less than half an hour before the end of Day 3. I was online, but I was not voting for **Astral **at the time and it was such a bizarre claim, I don’t know what I would have done if I had been in a position to save Astral

[Chronos]

That’s probably because his half-hearted claim came less than half an hour before the end of Day 3.

It was the evening before, actually, but still awfully late, considering sleep schedules.

And I would be a little leery of Nanook’s claim, too, but it seems highly unlikely to me that we don’t have a real Gandalf, and even more unlikely for the Scum to have knowledge of that (without which knowledge, a false-claim of Gandalf from someone not under pressure seems incredibly ballsy).

[peekercpa]

@Chronos

That’s probably because his half-hearted claim came less than half an hour before the end of Day 3.

It was the evening before, actually, but still awfully late, considering sleep schedules.

And I would be a little leery of Nanook’s claim, too, but it seems highly unlikely to me that we don’t have a real Gandalf, and even more unlikely for the Scum to have knowledge of that (without which knowledge, a false-claim of Gandalf from someone not under pressure seems incredibly ballsy).

and that is what is bugging me chronos. and i know that no one other than the mods and the spoiled folks have perfect knowledge. but the half arse claim, the timing, the no claim from astral and the save all smelled funky to me. and i, as well, did not have a vote on astral. and i am leery of nooks claim, as well, although in canon i would think that roll would exist. and with no counter claim it starts to feel better and better as time passes.

and i know this is monday morning quarterbacking to some extent. but jeebus the stars aligned. astral says nada. nat makes what turns out to be a suspect claim. and then wanderer pipes in with a vote change that lynches town who he has already admitted he thinks is town.

heebus pleebus.

[Meeko]

@Chronos

But there’s no point in letting a claimed detective live if you’re just going to kill off the folks he says are Town.

**This was @Peeker, correct? **

'Nuff said.

[peekercpa]

@Meeko

@Chronos

But there’s no point in letting a claimed detective live if you’re just going to kill off the folks he says are Town.

**This was @Peeker, correct? **

'Nuff said.

actually its a tomato ploy.

watch your back the bad folks are coming.

[USCDiver]

@Chronos

It was the evening before, actually, but still awfully late, considering sleep schedules.

Actually it wasn’t.

His insinuation was the night before:

@Natlaw

Gotta go to work but please unvote Astral - he is just a hobbit. I don’t think a full claims will help here but I strongly advise keeping the names hidden (for the reason mentioned earlier against a mass name claim).

I hope to get back before Dusk.

His actual claim was at 11:33am before the noon lynch:

@Natlaw

@Chronos

Natlaw, if you have some actual hard information to that effect, you really should have shared it sooner or not at all. Posting this late leaves it likely that many folks won’t have time to unvote him, but there’s still plenty of time for Scum to pick up on that and target you. And I for one would like enough information about your implicit claim to be able to judge whether I believe it.

My information is that I investigated Astral as a hobbit (I don’t know his role, but color wise his alignment would be town (as in he is not Gollum)). As said I think revealing his name isn’t a good idea at this time.

My information is late because I expected Astral himself to claim.

My other result is not useful to reveal now.

[Meeko]

@Natlaw

**
My other result is not useful to reveal now.**

**
Does this add credence to a Third Party? **

1.Assume Nat is [somehow] an investigator.
2.Assume Nat is Scum.
3.Would Scum waste a night investigating fellow scum?*

4.Assume Astral is scum
5.Assume Nat made a move / gambit to save Astral
6.The statement from Nat that Astral is town moves votes off of Astral
7.The statement that “My other result is not useful to reveal now” is ambiguous.
8.Nat can accomplish the save astral gambit by not saying anything else.

9. A Scum has said “My other result is not useful to reveal now.”
10. If this statement is made due to the revelation of a third party, the voting changes are less predictable. Another target for votes is created, but there is no guarantee on how town will vote. [That is, the gambit becomes riskier than intended.]

**
What if Nat is a lesser dick, that can only know race? Wouldn’t that fit? Wouldn’t that be easier to balance, if scum had a lesser dick?**

**Even more so, Comments have been made that Gollum could “hide” as town. Nat would not be able to detect Gollum.Nat also said that scum are after something precious.
**

Wouldn’t a Third Party be considered “Scum” from the perspective of scum?

Any takers that Gollum is in Game, is a Third Party, and is looking for a Ring shaped Potato as his Wincon?

*Yes. “Scum wouldn’t do that.” But, if you bought on to the fact that he is an investigator after his questionable PM, then you bought on to the entire package. You chance to piecemeal it is over with.

[Meeko]

Can a player hold on to the parchment indefinitely?

Not going to ask if there are other potatoes in the game. Would probably end up being detrimental to town, and I would get a No Comment.

And you guys think I’m stupid.

[Chronos]

1.Assume Nat is [somehow] an investigator.
2.Assume Nat is Scum.

Given those assumptions, then we can safely ignore anything he told us. The simplest explanation for him remaining tight-lipped about his other “investigations” is that the more he tells us, the more chance he has of tripping up, and so therefore he doesn’t want to tell us very much. There may well be a Gollum in the game, and the role may well have some interaction with the Ring that may or may not be in the game, but Natlaw’s behavior doesn’t tell us anything one way or another about it.

As for your green question, there’s no chance that Mahaloth is going to answer it, because we don’t even actually know that there is a parchment. For all we know, Red Skeezix might be lying. I don’t think he is, but still, it’s not the mod’s place to confirm or deny information like that. If Red really does have a piece of parchment, then he can ask Mahaloth in a PM what he’s allowed or supposed to do with it, and then he can tell us.
On a completely separate subject, Nanook: In your results for Meeko and Guiri, did you get a result of “Town”, or “Not scum”? Likewise, in your result for Natlaw, did you get “Scum”, or “Not town”? I want to be sure about the possibility of third parties in your results.

[Nanook_of_the_North_Shore]

@Chronos

On a completely separate subject, Nanook: In your results for Meeko and Guiri, did you get a result of “Town”, or “Not scum”? Likewise, in your result for Natlaw, did you get “Scum”, or “Not town”? I want to be sure about the possibility of third parties in your results.

I was told that Meeko and Guiri were members of the Alliance of Light, and that Natlaw was a Servant of Darkness.

[Mahaloth]

**Vote Count:

Natlaw(15): Astral, Nanook, Chronos, Innerstickler, Oneandonly, Peeker, Hoopy, Drainbead, USCDiver, Redskeezix, Natlaw, Mhaye, Snickers, Doctorwho, Guiri

Nanook(1) Natlaw
**

[Meeko]

@Chronos

As for your green question, there’s no chance that Mahaloth is going to answer it, because we don’t even actually know that there is a parchment.

It would seem unanimous, potatoes are half-baked.

[peekercpa]

@Chronos

so you think that nat didn’t out himself by his declaration of astral?

No, I don’t think that. If you did think he outed himself that way, then why didn’t you vote for him yesterDay?
[/QUOTE]

<snipped>

ok, that outing. i mis parsed it along the lines that he had outed himself as a claimed detective. i didn’t pull it forward to the scum thingy.

[peekercpa]

and i totally butchered that freaking quote.

what says chronos is actually me. the next sentence is the snipped portion from chronos’s original post and the last section is mine. :smack:

[peekercpa]

@GuiriEnEspana

I was surprised no-one else switched their vote as we had an apparent cop-confirmed Townie against someone several of us suspected was scum (intentionally ignoring deductions made based on PMs not in the public domain).

<snipped>

but wouldn’t a switch away from astral be making a deduction based on “PMs not in the public domain”?

[Mahaloth]

3:30 today, folks, instead of Noon.

Just a reminder.

[Snickers]

I’ve been trying to analyze Natlaw’s save of Astral, and here’s a WOW on it. Posts are linked; the commentary is mine alone. I tried to give quick summaries, so please correct me if I mischaracterized anything. It concentrates mainly on any actions surrounding Natlaw and Astral. Later on, after Natlaw’s full claim, I stopped counting votes against him - the reasoning behind these is pretty clear.

Vote count #2063: ed = 2, Astral = 3

#2064: Doctor Who votes ed.
#2069: Drain posts WOW on Astral, then votes for him.
#2073: Natlaw votes Pleonast.

Vote count #2076: ed = 3,Astral = 4

#2078: Astral disagrees with Drain’s reasoning for voting him and votes Drain.
#2080: Natlaw posts suspicions about Guiri, gives a quick defense of Astral, then unvotes Pleo and votes ed.
#2085: Guiri votes ed.
#2089: Astral says he wanted Plankton dead too, he just disagreed about when.

Vote count #2091: ed = 4, Astral = 4

#2105: Hoopy votes Astral
#2106: Inner Stickler votes Astral

Vote count #2108: ed = 4, Astral = 6
Vote count #2112: ed = 4, Astral = 6

#2113: Natlaw makes his half-claim: Astral is just a hobbit.
#2116: MHaye votes ed.
#2124: After a bunch had questioned him, Natlaw adds to his claim saying that he investigated Astral as a hobbit. Says he doesn’t know his role, but he’s a townie. Revealing his name isn’t a good idea at this time. Info is late because he expected Astral to claim by now. Other result is not useful.
#2126: OaOW unvotes Astral and votes ed.
#2129: Natlaw says he came out because he didn’t want to waste his investigation. Other result doesn’t confirm a townie.

Vote count #2130: ed = 6, Astral = 5
#2133: ed lynched.

#2140: Astral night-posts that he didn’t expect to survive yesterDay.
#2177: Astral says he’s vanilla town, then that he believes Natlaw because he is correct - he is indeed a hobbit.
#2186: Natlaw posts that he wasn’t blocked: he investigated Nanook last Night, Guiri on N2. N1 he
investigated Astral; he’s Peregrin Took, a hobbit. Posts power section of PM.
#2190: Astral confirms that he’s Pippin, then votes Natlaw: errors in posted section of PM, saved Astral to gain townie cred.
#2191: Nanook counter-claims and votes Natlaw.
#2194: Astral mentions that Natlaw’s let slip that “the scum are looking for something precious.” Says town should pick Nanook’s next target for investigation. Suggests that Nanook investigates him.
#2196: Nanook posts role PM, then explains why he didn’t claim previously.
#2198: Astral says it occurs to him that a godfather would suggest the same thing (that Nanook investigate
Astral). Can’t begrudge OaOW for voting him in response to Natlaw’s turning up scum.
#2200: Chronos points out that announcing the investigator’s next target is a bad idea that helps scum.
#2204: Astral agrees with Chronos’s reasoning.
#2217: Astral agrees with Hoopy’s analysis: scum gets town lynched either way and sneak inNatlaw as a confirmed townie. Doesn’t understand why Natlaw’s posted PM section wasn’t proofread with all night to talk about it.

My thoughts on the above:

–If Natlaw’s an investigator (for either side), why the smudge on Guiri in #2080, especially given his later claim in #2186 that he investigated her and she came up town? If he’s a scum investigator, I can see it - smudge the good name of a townie and maybe get a later lynch out of it - but then why later say oop, nope, she’s town"? I think he was trying to preserve cred at this point, but did a pretty bad job of it.

–He’s not going to tell us, but I’d love to know the result Natlaw got from his investigation of Nanook, given his wierd powers section in the flubbed PM.

–The interaction between Natlaw and Astral about the claim is weird.

Natlaw: Don’t do it! He’s a hobbit!
Astral: He’s right, I am a hobbit.
Natlaw: I investigated him; he’s Peregrin Took.
Astral: Yep, I’m Pippin.

If they’re both scum and Pippin is a cover role, this seems a pretty poor attempt at confirmation - they had all Night to coordinate this, and this exchange doesn’t work. If Astral’s town, this exchange makes more sense - he’d be trying to keep his name out of the discussion in case scum would night-kill him later. Better him than Frodo, say, and keeping his role name secret would keep scum guessing. (While a scummy Natlaw would want it revealed, although he could simply tell his scum buddies about it at Night, too.)

–The whole deal might indicate that scum can’t talk during the Day - Natlaw’s save seems nothing but impulsive. If they can stratagize during the Day, certainly they’d come up with something better than this. Of course, they had all Night to make something of Natlaw’s full claim, too, and we’ve seen what came out of that.

–Ultimately, here’s what I think: I don’t think Natlaw’s goal was to save Astral at all. I think he did it to a) build cred and b) out the town detective, especially after Night discussion with scum buddies. I don’t think they had a target after Pleonast, now they do.

[USCDiver]

Dammit! I got my mouth all ready for hash and eggs and you ain’t got no hash!

[USCDiver]

Oh that was in response to Maha’s announcement of the delayed reveal.