Lord of the Rings Mafia

The Game Room
2481

Yet another example of peeker noise: Wanderers being worried about Sauron is reason for him to no longer believe my PM is shit. Yup, that makes perfect sense.

I think he’s panicking. Right now, discounting any further intervention by power roles, Town has approximately a 68% chance of winning. Town, of course, should be happy with this situation (though still trying, of course, to better the odds further), but for Scum, not so much. Scum’s best hope lies in distracting us from the obvious. And peeker is well placed to do that, given his high postcount, and the tendency for people to excuse him as “Well, he’s just being peeker”.

Now, I believe that Astral is pretty much a sure thing, while I’m merely highly suspicious of peeker, so I’m not moving my vote. But as soon as Astral’s dead (which I expect to happen despite peeker’s panicked efforts to derail it), he’s my next target.

2482

/bleached

@ Peeker, why are you unvoting Chronos based on something OaOW said? You voted OaOW in #2410 but moved your vote to Chronos in #2429 because you “believe his pm to be shit.” What has OaOW done to make you change your mind about Chronos’ PM?

2483

<snipped>

and i’ll address some of your other points in a bit, but first i would like to know how you arrived at this figure. i mean what are the calculations behind it.

because looking at the dead and using jsexton points town is at best down a bit and at worst upside down a bunch (based on what aragorn could do which we don’t know at this point). plus if we are to believe nanook scum have an rb, which if we lynch, just means that nook goes bye bye the next Night. so town is down in points and our dick is effectively worthless.

so how you figure town has a 2/3 chance of winning based on that is kind of hard for me to fathom. i’d dearly love to see your calculations.

2484

guiri, i’ll get back to you in a moment but i want to see chronos’s response first. is that fair enough?

2485

Well, I had to make assumptions, of course, both about game state and about player behavior. First, I’m assuming that Astral gets killed toDay and is Scum (for which I think the evidence is overwhelming). Second, I’m assuming that there were a total of four Scum, which I think is the most likely number. Third, I’m assuming that everyone considers myself, Nanook, Guiri, and Meeko to be confirmed (or at least confirmed-enough): Myself by virtue of knowing who Aragorn was on Day 1, an implausible piece of knowledge for Scum to have; Nanook by virtue of not having been counter-claimed, either as Detective nor as Gandalf; and Guiri and Meeko by virtue of having been cleared by Nanook. Finally, I’m assuming that the Scum will kill one of the confirmed-enough every Night, for as long as there are any of them alive, and that Town will kill someone other than one of the confirmed-enoughs every Day. Since I’m trying to calculate a probability, here, I assume that the choice of whom to lynch is effectively random, within those parameters. I am not assuming that we get any more useful information out of Nanook, since as you point out the Scum will block him every Night until they kill him.

Given all this, and chaining all the probabilities together, I find that there is exactly a 0.68 chance of Town victory. My calculation is in no way based on JSexton Points, since, even to the extent that those have any validity at all (they’re given a lot more weight around here than they really deserve, and I think more than JSexton ever even intended), they’re only valid at the beginning of a game.

Obviously, there are gaps in my knowledge: First, I don’t know the total number of Scum, which could plausibly be as low as three or as large as five. Second, I don’t know what all of the power roles involved are, and I expect there to be at least one more, Frodo (but that “power” could be something that helps Town or hurts us). And third, I don’t know if Scum will make any mistakes that get them caught more easily, or if Town will make any mistakes that make them look like Scum. But hey, if I knew everything, I wouldn’t be calculating probabilities in the first place.

2486

and i didn’t quote you chronos. i believe that to be fair. if not please let me know.

if astral does in fact flip scum what would that tell you about wanderer? anything. or just townie following a claimed dick lead?

and i know we play two different style of games, but meh, you are still an ok sort.

so far we have one dead scum that proposes that they know another name and player, right? we have you claiming the same thing basically, right? now we know what you purport your knowledge to be was a dead town. we still don’t know how astral flips. i won’t go metagame and bore the heck out of everyone about the implications.

2487

i am awaiting a response from maha. until that time i can’t be any more responsive. sorry.

2488

That’s funny, a few posts ago you were about to explain, but just wanted to wait to hear back from me. Now, you need to wait back from Mahaloth, presumably in a PM, where we conveniently can’t even tell if he’s responded to whatever the heck you’re asking or not. I’m reminded of the pond game, where one of the Scum said in the thread that he had some questions he needed to ask me in PM, and where the question he actually did ask was “Interesting game, isn’t it?”.

2489

And that’s something you and I do agree on mechanically-wise.

Oh, and peeker, you never answered my question from post 2457.

2490

Oh, and:

Could be Scum, could be townie following a claimed dick lead. There’s no way to tell which, so Astral flipping Scum wouldn’t tell us anything about Wanderers. Now let’s try it the other way: Does your case against Wanderers make any sense if Astral is Town? So why aren’t you voting Astral?

And I have no idea what you’re talking about, asking me if it’s fair that you didn’t quote me.

2491

So you think the Mod is going to give you some information in a PM that will help you play the game? Doesn’t that seem a little unfair to those of us who are playing the game within the thread?

2492

I’m not going to bother voting for Astral. Dude’s going down no matter what. It seems likely he’s scum, and all his desperate gyrations aren’t changing that. Instead, I’m going to toss out a vote for who I think is the next most likely to be scum, in preperation for tomorrow.

** vote Peeker **

I still love you peeker, but you’ve been consistently full of shit this entire game. It’s vaguely reminiscent of Ed in SSB after he was outted as scum. Everything you’ve done in this game has been pointedly done to maximze confusion and chaos. You’re normal play style can be confusing to people, I know, but it can be deciphered with a little work. This game is different. It’s all smoke with no fire, and you keep throwing more and more out there in an attempt to keep people trying to find the fire, when you know perfectly well there is no fire.

2493

That’s the second time I’ve been accused of “wild gyrations,” when I’m really responding to inaccuracies or mistakes. Since I’m going to be lynched regardless, would you guys clue me in on what exactly makes me “wild” or “gyrating?”

I’m asking so that you guys can help me improve my game next round. It seems to me, especially with my rebuttal of Drain Bead, that I was making clear, concise corrections. I feel that I’ve been clear and consistent when responding to USCDiver as well. Yet several people have accused me of acting panicked, desperate, or wild. What’s up with that?

2494

sorry. i’ll die silent before i break the game open on a technicality.

2495

sorry, hoop i totally fragged this one.

i still think wanderer is potentially scum. his recent posts have kind of alleviated that fear somewhat, however.

i also continue to think that you are scum as well. the shitty scum false pm’s just stink. now, is that because scum don’t know what they are doing or is it because scum want to kind of trip. sorrry, dude but it would be exactly what i would be doing. and don’t get a big head but it is something that i could see coming from your place if you are scum. basically, have town not think that you are scum because you are way to wily for that shit to happen.

and i really don’t give a crap about what chronos says (although i read every bit of his posts because i think that is important). but i wonder about the fact that known scum was given a town name and triangulate back to who the hell else has the same thing going on. and that person has made it very clear that confirms him as town. which i sincerely doubt.

to be honest, you are the one i leave out. because i can see a smart as shit hoopy doing a double cross and constructing shitty fake pm’s to make folks like me absolve him. but … it still is just kind of hoopyish. and that is a compliment, btw.

2496

there are things about this game that i have not figured out. for that i truly apologize. normally i am much better. :frowning:

if you fail to realize that there are “potential” mechanics at work and that i am trying to play this straight then that is really a personal problem.

and i would hope that you would respect that. if you can’t then, sorry. i can’t help you. i mean you will still be someone i like playing mafia with but i am not going to break the game just because you get all huffy.

2497

<snipped>

read the canon coca cola.

the middle earthians didn’t march out from minas tirith to the gates to win. they marched to create confusion allowing them to win. that was the only chance they had.

next time you can get my cards and play the hand differently.

2498

Quoth peeker:

Well, of course he’s potentially Scum! That’s about as null a statement as you can make.

So you think maybe that the way I knew that Gadarene was Aragorn was that we were Scum buddies together? Really, the two situations are not at all analogous.

Yes, I suppose it’s conceivable that the moderator has put some sort of weird posting restriction on you that prohibits you from explaining the reasoning behind your votes. But I hope you see that I can’t just take your word on it, rather than concluding that the reason you’re not explaining your votes is that they have no explanation.

2499

/snipped and bolded

I’m not sure I understand this statement, can you explain which “known scum” you are referring to and which “town name” s/he was given?

2500

This message brought to you by Cecil brand potatoes. **Now with 100% more Gastard. **

Peeker, I sincerely hope you were told, point blank, going in to this, that you were given some special status.

That is, if you weren’t told you held a special status, then in effect the game is gastard for you alone.