in your view peeker, Am I definitely scum or not? Because you’re confusing me on this point.
Quoth MHaye:
I fail to see the relevance… We surely don’t have a Pippin, but I don’t see what that means in regards to voting for anyone. If you’re misremembering Wanderers’ claim, as I did, he claimed Merry, not Pippin.
I’m on the way to being merry. Hmmmm Brakspear triple 7.2% strength ale…
So it looks like we have a few claims and confirmation of claims left right and center now.
All of the claims can be true. Some of the claims can be false.
Even if I take all the claims to be true, there is still something that is… not even pretending to be true.
Vote Peeker
Not sure why you are still redacting things.
For some reason I didn’t finish my thought.
I’m aware that OAOW claimed Merry. I asked myself, if Pippin was a safe claim for SAHM would Merry be?
On it’s own, that would not be enough. However, there was also the Day 3 vote switch that saved AR and lynched Ed, which might point to OAOW as one of SAHM.
So, befoe I commit to lynching Peeker, I want to reread OAOW’s posts.
Ah, I see. I was actually thinking about it the other way around: That Mahaloth was likely to have included one of those two in the game, but would have regarded the other as redundant.
**Vote Count:
Peeker(4): Chronos, Hoopy, USCDiver, Meeko
Chronos(1): Peeker
**
And I can confirm that I am vanilla. I am Elrond. My PM is identical to the vanilla PM that’s been floating around.
(Apparently wielding what is in canon the strongest of the three elven rings, and effectively the second strongest ring after the One Ring itself, doesn’t count for much. 
)
Do what now?
On OAOW.
Day 1.
OAOW participated in the handshaking, claiming results that matched Special Ed, who we now know to be vanilla. That supports either a true vanilla claim, or that OAOW is SAHM and that SAHM had access to a vanilla Town PM. This could go either way. Null tell.
At the end of the Day, he jumped his vote onto Suburban Plankton in [post=12817619]post 1097[/post], and then off again in [post=12818181]post 1131[/post]. About 3½ hours separated those posts. I checked the vote spreadsheet I keep to see whether that had a chance of saving SP, but have to say no. SP had 11 votes when OAOW voted, and the unvote dropped him back to 10; Special Ed, the nearest contender, had six votes throughout that period. That, on review, feels more like something Townie would do. It’s also consistent with his Day 3 action that Peeker is so critical of (on which, more when I get there.)
Day 2.
Here, OAOW spent focussed on Chipacabra, along with dispensing some comments about whether SAHM were likely to have had the vanilla PM (he concluded they did). To judge this properly in the light of current knowledge, I’d need to reread the whole handshake sequence. Maybe later. For now, I don’t get any reads either way. (NB: Doing so might shed some light on whether OAOW could have participated in the handshake if he were one of SAHM.)
Day 3.
The big event is, of course, the switch of vote from AR to Ed in [post=12869985]post 2126[/post]. Unlike Day 1, this was not motivated by a desire to allow a claimed power role to produce testable reports, because AR never claimed a power. Rather, it was on the ground that AR was being vouched for by Natlaw, who had claimed a tracking power with a twist. This definitely looks more suspicious now we know AR was one of SAHM. Consider; if AR had been lynched, we’d have been all over the lynch of Natlaw. Now that happened anyway, but only because Nanook claimed Detective and reported Natlaw was one of SAHM – which he did only because Natlaw claimed to have investigated Nanook. So, that unvote saved two SAHM from exposure. Without Natlaw claiming an investigation of Nanook, that lid might not have been lifted for a few days (never, if we were unlucky).
I’d better point out, however, that I know a Townie could have decided to vote Ed over AR, because I had already done so, in part to allow Natlaw’s claims to be developed. (The other part was that the case against AR had not convinced me up to then – and never did. Ho hum.) I also don’t like the touch of “SAHM would never do that” implicit in some of OAOW’s defence.
One other issue we have to contend with though. We don’t know when AR joined the other Minions. We can be fairly sure that AR was not known to SAHM on Day 1; we do know that AR was known to them on Day 5. I speculate that the trigger was Natlaw’s investigation of AR on Night 1. (I think Natlaw stuck to the truth when telling us who he had checked up on in case Town had a Tracker.)
Day 4.
OAOW’s thrust is the defence of his last-minute switch, on grounds which I tend to agree with; specifically that, on the info we had in Day 3, the switch was reasonable.
Day 5.
Argues with Peeker a lot (something that I can’t really consider a SAHM-tell, given how much time I spent trying to pin him down when he was playing the slippery eel.)
The only real pointer suggesting OAOW is one of SAHM is the late vote switch on Day 3. Without a second piece of evidence, I’m reluctant to vote for him at this late stage.
I think I’m going to fall back on my suspicion of Peeker, as documented in my discussions with him Yesterday.
Vote Peeker
It may not be obvious because we cross-posted, but I had already decided to vote for Natlaw on Day 4 before Nanook’s claim. Natlaw’s claim was full of enough holes by itself.
carrying on from my voting stance yesterday
vote peeker
<bleached>
well your vote switch on astral sure looked scummy at the time and still does, by the way. but i agree with chronos (i think he posited this) that there are obviously at least 5 scum in this game. 6 with a gf makes it a stretch. now 1 was a “convert” so that doesn’t get full points but i still think 5 most likely.
and so i have to do what i think is best and vote for who i feel to be most likely scum. now that absolve you, hell no. because if i felt there were 6 you’d probably get my vote in front of chronos. but because i believe there to be 5 you just got demoted to vice president.
any other questions from the gang? you’ve only got a little while till you swing me.
1: How do you reconcile the idea that I’m Scum with the fact that I provably knew who Aragorn was on Day 1?
2: Does your answer to question 1 also account for the fact that the Scum did not kill Aragorn on Night 1?
3: Does your answer to question 1 change when you consider that we now provably have another Town player who started the game knowing the identity of one of the power roles?
4: How do you reconcile the idea that I’m Scum with your certainty that anyone who’s claimed to be a close relative of a Townie whose PM mentioned loved ones must certainly be Town?
@ Peeker, could you point me to the post where you laid out a case against Chronos? I must have missed it.
And what’s so special about USC’s claim to make you so confident he’s Town?
and because i am swinging it won’t do the research but will post off of memory.
certainly you claimed that aragorn was in the game. but it wasn’t till after he was dead and revealed that you actually came out and confirmed the person as being what you had intimated knowing. and to be honest with you it doesn’t take much of leap to figure out that aragorn would be in the game.
no as a matter of fact that makes it even more highly suspicious of you. and with nat being a watcher i can see it taking them i while to trinagulate on him.
not a bit. matter of fact makes sense to give something to scum that is similar to what town gets.
i don’t get the last question? can you help me out a bit?
they are directly related.
I did not just know that Aragorn was in the game; I knew that he was Gadarene. I have already conclusively proven that I knew this: There is no other way I could have posted the hash in post 372, which I later verified in post 1848. If I were Scum, there would have been no need for Scum to triangulate on Gadarene, because I am 100% proven to have known on Day 1 that Gadarene was Aragorn.
hey, chronos nothing you say will convince me otherwise and i assume it goes likewise on your side.
but i will flip town and then we have a mess.
and i have been thinking about wanderer’s vote shift a little more. the more i posit the less i become convinced that he is scum. i mean monday morning quarterbacking and all that but …
if he were scum he would have know that nat’s claim was full of it. he would have probably also concluded that nat was going to get pushed the following Day and/or counterclaimed. which would also lend some heat to astral and then on him depending on how astral flipped. the only way it would make even a lick of sense is that if astral got strung, flipped scum and then nat is toast. so i really struggle with was he scum trying to buy time (a threefer) or just a rushed townie giving the benefit of the doubt.
But then, we’ll never know until you actually say something.