Lord of the Rings Mafia

I guess other questions would be: Who has received an item, and did it do anything you can discern?

I have not received any items.

I had to look it up too.

Me either, no items.

no items here

I have not received any items either and I’m dying to know what Red’s parchment thing was all about.

Nope I haven’t gotten anything. I think shot my chances of getting anything pretty early here. I think that’s self evident.
**
Vote Who**

A place holder vote for pressure. And given the short time frame, it needs to go on now.

Doctor Who hasn’t been around since the night before yesterDay ended. But really, he’s no doubt going to claim some vanilla role, and with all the role names in the game revealed, even if he were scum without a preprovided cover, I don’t think he’s going to have any problems claiming, so I don’t really see the point to a pressure vote.

I haven’t received any item either.

And I should be in a somewhat confirmed category since Chronos confirmed I did nothing two Nights ago when DrainBead died. Now the reason I say semi-confirmed is:

  1. It is possible that there are two scum remaining, in which case the other scum could have killed and I did nothing. However, we know there’s a blocker out there. This would mean that the blocker killed, and I did nothing. Or I’m the blocker, the non-blocker killed, and I chose not to block for some reason. If there are 3 scum remaining, then the game was blatantly tilted number-wise toward scum and the Town powers as revealed don’t support that.

  2. Drain Bead was able to kill the Night she died. This is also unlikely, since she died before Night ended according to Mahaloth’s death color for her. Usually kills are resolved at dawn.

Now, we have 3 mislynches before 3-handed lylo assuming one scum and no more kills/saves. We have 3 fully confirmed as well. Essentially if we guess wrong from the unconfirmed pool each time, we will have 3 unconfirmed going into lylo. (Or 2 unconfirmed and 1 partial confirmation).

Not horrible odds on pure random voting, but not particularly great.

But since we have to start somewhere:

vote: OAOW

It was your vote that saved Astral and killed Ed. Sure, it’s largely a null tell in that either scum or town would do it, and I even brought that point up earlier, but we have to start somewhere, and that action has a strong scum motivation. But if you or anyone can find soemthing scummier (or if I get the time to look I’ll try), I’ll easily change my vote.

BTW, Mahaloth, I’m awaiting confirmation on the spoiler board.

I haven’t received anything either. I entertained the thought that Red’s parchment was a bluff to attract the NK but it could have been one of Gadarene’s items.

@ Hoopy, FWIW I consider you the most confirmed of the unconfirmed group :). I agree that OaOW’s vote switch had a strong scum motivation but I know that I would have done the same in his situation so for me it’s a null-tell. Did you see my comments on Inner Stickler yesterDay? Are you not suspicious of his fluffy participation and vote record?

I see we’re a little short on suspicions. I’ll post WoWs on Doctor Who and Inner Stickler when I get some time later tonight. Anyone want to look at Snickers, OaoW, USC or Hoopy?

The only item I ever received was the Ring, and I kept that until it got dropped into the Cracks of Doom. The parchment, I half suspected, was from the scroll that Gandalf consulted to learn the inscription on the One Ring; but I never received the parchment so I don’t know

OOG

FINALLY heard back from an Marketing Agency that I submitted my resume to, about two months ago.

Entry level job.

But then again, I only have a 3 month internship as experience to offer.

Just a call from them, that they indeed have my resume.

They told me they didn’t check their machine in a while.

They probably got all 10 of my messages all at once.

But hey, I will take it.

/OOG

[Oog]

Meeko, that sounds like good news. Hope you do well at it.

[oog]

I was planning to take a look at Snickers’ posts this evening. I don’t know how far I’ll get though.

OK, I’m about halfway through a WOW on One and Only Wanderers. That said, I don’t know if I’ll have time to finish it tonight due to RL plans. (I know, I know.) Since we’re short on time toDay, I’ll post what I’ve got so far.

Again, the summary is mine alone - follow the links to the actual posts. Apologies if I’ve mischaracterized anything.

#50: Signs up
#58: Gives some basics on how an LOTR-themed mafia game might work
#60: Jokes about the Luggage in a Discworld mafia setup
#174: Confirms receipt of PM. Says role matches ed’s handshake, then adds 6 Ys to the pile for consideration
#179: Says that the “You win when all…” sentence doesn’t fulfill all the letter requirements of ed’s “the last section” handshake. The handshake might still work.
#181: In response to Gadarene, confirms that there’s definitely 6 Ys, and 2 Us and Cs.
#314: In response to USCDiver’s confusion, says to shake back something that hasn’t been used yet. Trusts ed.
#320: Clarifies that he trusts ed because the handshake was very specific and matched his/her PM. (Snickers’ note: sorry, I’m unsure of your gender. Apologies.) All bets are off, though, if scum has a copy of a vanilla town PM.
#322: Thinks ed’s handshake is solid because it was posted before any others made more general knowledge available.
#332: Questions why not handshake now, if it’s been successful previously. Doesn’t believe scum has copy of townie PM.
#388: Doesn’t like meta game thinking - players shouldn’t be at a disadvantage because they’ve never played under a certain mod before. Nice orc joke.
#482: Questions ed about what the point of the handshake was.
#611: Agrees with USCDiver’s handshake of 4 Ds.
#612: Analyzes Astral’s vote and unvote of USCDiver, then votes Astral.
#628: Says that Chronos’s statement that someone’s out to kill him (Chronos) makes sense if he was speaking about ed’s vote for him. Questions Chronos about whether that was his meaning.
#741: Claims that alignment is consistent with role name.
#910: Wants to see Chronos’s response to Gadarene’s question (does the structure of your PM match Plankton’s?) before changing votes
#1097: Unvotes Astral and votes for Plankton based on the total absense of anyone defending SP’s role claim format.
#1126: Questions whether, if Plankton doesn’t swing and then claims to have been blocked or to have investigated the night-kill, then is that an auto-lynch.
#1131: Unvotes Plankton and votes for Chipacabra - says that we should give Plankton a chance to investigate before lynching him.
#1134: Fixes coding problem in prevous vote for Chip.
#1135: In response to peeker’s vote, says his post was clear in that “we” referred to town.
#1146: In response to peeker, clarifies position: he meant “survives to night,” not “survives the Night”
#1172: N1 post celebrating successful scum lynch
#1392: Questions Chipacabra’s vote for ed; says ed’s handshake was a mistaken play by a townie, not a scum ploy
#1411: Says that Pleo’s 2nd vote for peeker is meaningless, why don’t you just use an FOS?
#1609: Lotsa posts over night. Promises to read them all later, but now votes for Chipacabra - says shady voting went down yesterday to try to save Plankton.
#1610: Asks Chip why he hasn’t posted his PM
#1623: In response to peeker, says that Snickers isn’t saying that Treebeard was a bad guy in canon, but that **Chip **was using the Treebeard claim as a cover role.
1624: In response to peeker, says that Mahaloth hasn’t posted a vanilla PM, but both ed and Chip have.
1627: Says that regardless of what ed is, scum have the vanilla town PM.
1630: Jokes that it’s pretty funny if Treebeard is a Mahaloth-provided fake claim: can’t see the scum for the trees!
#1830: N2 post about Piers Anthony’s last Nox book
#1831: N2 post lamenting the crappiness of Anthony’s last three books
#1845: N2 post explaining SDMB handle origin
#1855: Agrees that handshake was spectacularly unsuccessful. Wonders why, if scum had one, that Plankton’s post didn’t correctly reference townie PM wording. Still doesn’t see ed as scum.
#1926: Notices ed’s catch of Red Skeezix alluding to the fact that he knows scum can’t talk during the Day and reposts it
#2036: Votes Astral, says it’s not locked in but he wants to get a vote on record
#2057: Says that an unvote that breaks a tie is as significant as a vote that does so
#2115: Questions Natlaw: is it just your belief that Astral’s a hobbit or are you telling us he is one? Is there any alignment to go with it?
#2117: In response to MHaye’s post that he’s got suspicions on some players, says that we’ll miss those if MHaye doesn’t post them and then is night-killed.
#2126: Unvotes Astral and votes ed in response to Natlaw’s giving more info about the Astral investigation.
#2179: Responds to peeker: ed wasn’t his choice for scum, but if Natlaw is town, then that confirms Astral as town.
#2180: Votes peeker for undermining Natlaw before he can respond back and for his motivation behind questioning why OaOW switched his vote from Astral to ed.

Things that jump out at me:
[ul]
[li]The unvote of **Astral **and vote for **Plankton **comes really late in Day1. Then the unvote of **Plankton **comes even later in favor of Chipacabra. This could be bandwagon jumping on scum that couldn’t be saved, then a late attempt to do so, especially given the reason for the unvote.[/li][li]The reasoning behind the D2 vote for **Chip **seems week: lots of shady voting went down to try to save Plankton. Yet, this comes after OaOW’s own posts saying that **Plankton **should have more time, if he is an investigator. Weird.[/li][li]Specifically says that an unvote that breaks a tie is as important as a vote that breaks a tie. This is important later, as it’s his own unvote/vote that lynches ed.[/li][li]Here’s where it really gets interesting: Natlaw’s save of Astral. In #2115, he asks **Natlaw **to clarify it’s just a hunch that **Astral **is a hobbit, or whether he investigated him to be so. This smells a little: if scum can’t talk during the day, what’s the one thing that **Natlaw **can say that’ll convince his buddies to save Astral? By asking for confirmation, again, this could be scum really trying to make sure before sealing the deal.[/li][/ul]

OOG: Just started working nights. I feel a little bit like Batboy. I just woke up and thought to myself, “oh shnikey… need to see what happened in… nfff back to sleep!” But I fought through. I will be doing the best I can until the weekend (which I have off). /OOG

So here you go:

Vanilla. I have nothing else substantive to post right now. I’m freaking tired.

Unvote Who

WoW on Inner Stickler (spoilered):743 Confirmed
776 “The most useful death for a townie, especially a VT is by NK, not lynching, JSYK.”
1091 Votes Suburban, format of PM doesn’t match
1211 Fluff - Night 1
1215 Fluff - Night 1
1263 Fluff - Night 1
1266 Fluff - “Well, that sucks.” re: Telcontar
1267 Fluff - “NETA: I mean that the doc is dead.”
1389 Thinks Special Ed and Peeker are both frustrated town
1391 Comments on Special Ed’s post restriction and “All that being said, with yesterday’s lynch we’ve earned ourselves some breathing room. So if people wanted to lynch ed in order to get answers, I’m not adamantly opposed, but I’d rather go after someone I’m more convinced is scum. And I don’t think ed is that person.”
1451 To Chipacabra (defending desire to leave Suburban alive for a few Days) Suburban, if was telling the truth, would have been roleblocked by scum and thus incapacitated
1452 Neta
1499 To Peeker, masons have no powers so if he’s a mason, he’s likely powerless
1505 Questions Peeker about his claim and how unrealistic it appears given Special Ed denial
1512 Comment re: Peeker’s idea for hidden masonry game
1520 Fluff
1530 “This is why people complain about the days being too full of fluff, jsyk.”
1532 Comments on Pleo’s reason for voting MHaye - funniest ever seen
1536 Generic - joke comment on Peeker’s mason claim
1583 Corrects Meeko who thought Pleo was claiming he was confirmed Town
1592 Comments on usefulness of lists of players with thoughts
1593 Comment on Meeko as a player & sideways
1595 Information- comment on error in vote count
1597 Comment on corrected vote count
1761 Votes Pleo for acronym, doesn’t think Special Ed is scum
1796 Fluff - Night 2
1946 To Chronos, explains something Drain said about usefulness of Cop not looking at power role claimants
1952 Comment on lynching a vig in other game
1968 Fluff
2053 Comment on close vote, Chronos says scum have yet to cast deciding vote, disagrees - scum have probably voted (when in fact no known scum had)
2106 Votes Astral (6th vote), comments on unconvincing reply to Drain’s vote post
2195 Votes Natlaw, doesn’t buy claim or results
2201 Wonders about Natlaw’s attempt to save Astral - expects both are scum
2202 Neta
2206 fluff
2287 Tells Meeko to stop worrying about balance and the parchment
2394 Fluff - Night 4
2444 Votes Astral (5th vote) “I don’t believe any of your gyrations.”
2452 Explains difference between watcher vs tracker
2788 Posts role PM - Gimli, VT - votes Peeker, either scum or sufficiently anti-town to warrant a lynch
2821 Fluff - Night 6
2845 No items, no idea about parchment

I expressed my suspicions in post #2761 but to summarize:

  • little or no scum hunting efforts in posts
  • almost 0 engagement with other players (no poking, questioning, prodding), just random comments here and there
  • extremely minimal vote reasoning, usually bandwagon “me too” votes
  • voting record
  • still no analysis, thoughts, suspicions

To be fair to Inner Stickler, his late vote on Day 1 was probably due to his substituting in (he replaced Normal Phase), so should be excluded as an argument that he is one of SAHM.

I don’t follow.

Is it safe to speculate on how many Scum are left?

I am somewhat suspicious, but I view it as weaker than the case against OaOW. And we can’t completely discount peeker’s mod-hushed conclusion that one of chronos, OaOW, or I are scum. Now while his outright cases against us stunk like month old eggs (his supporting evidence against OaOW was pretty hamfisted), I’m curious as to why he really singled out us three. Obviously Chronos was town, I’m objectively pretty likely town (and subjectively am Town), so that leaves only one remaining.

He’s saying that Day One shouldn’t be held against stickler since he subbed in.

Why wouldn’t it be?

**
I don’t see how subbing in automatically makes you NOT scum. **

I would not be the best one to ask this. C.F. Idle’s Halloween game currently.