Lord of the Rings Mafia

The Game Room
2881

Morning all.

It looks like people have decided to lynch OAOW. I’m not really sure that’s the best case, and my analysis of him, I said that the vote switch on Day 3 wasn’t enough on it’s own for me to vote him.

The only new “evidence” isn’t evidence – not a new fact or statement by OAOW. It’s the suggestion that Natlaw might have investigated AR on Night 2 (instead of Night 1, as I supposed) and be throwing out the claim to attempt to save a player he (Natlaw) new to be a Minion but the others didn’t. That makes OAOW’s vote being from a SAHM and playing on more plausible. I still have the problem that I did essentially the same thing; I voted for Ed in order to make the save possible. Thus, I probably have a bit of bias in favour of viewing the switch as a possible Town act.

His vote Today appears to be OMGUS, which I can read either way; the last frustrated farewell of the final Minion, or the gallows accusation of an innocent player of who he thinks is most responsible for his untimely death.

In the current gamestate I can be content with this lynch, although not 100% convinced. I’ll place my vote that way.

Vote OAOW.

2882

I started an analysis of Snickers the other day, but don’t seem to have gotten very far - I’ve covered Day 2 and some of Day 3, but I need to rereview the latter. However, I’m going to put the first part out now.

I’m looking at Snickers because she claims to be Arwen, and I suspect that may be a cover role. Let’s face it; canonically, if there is anyone who can claim to be “close to Aragorn” it’s Arwen. They’ve been engaged for many years (they met in 2952, I think - Aragorn was 21 then, and had just learned his lineage. The war of the Ring was fought in 3018 - 3019.) So, why was Eowyn - the unsuccessful suitor for his affections - told she was “close to” Aragorn, and not Arwen? It makes her worth a look.

Snickers subbed in for LittlePlasticNinja, so I started by reviewing LPN. I know Snickers can’t answer for what she said, but the two players are taking the same role so there might be some indications there.

LPN made six posts, only one of which had substantive game content, and that was [post=12795605]post 280[/post]. She participates in the handshaking by saying that her PM had “Sauron” in it three times, which is consistent with the vanilla PM. She also challenges the validity of the tactic (correctly, as it turns out.)

Conclusion: not much there, but (such as it is) suggests that she either had a vanilla role, or that (if one of SAHM) she had access to the vanilla role PM.

Snickers subbed in Overnight, and her first substantive post is [post=12831285]1397[/post]. She puts some pressure on Pleo, suggesting that Telcontar the Doc might have protected Pleo N1; she bases this off [post=12818039]post 1115[/post]. This pinged me a bit, because Telcontar was reacting to the impending lynch of Suburban Plankton. Snickers catches this error herself, correcting it in her next post ([post=12833126]1431[/post]). This post also throws out a lot of accusations. For the most part, they’re just questions and comments; for example, she suggests Gadarene didn’t let us forget he’d been the one to pick holes in SP’s roleclaim, suggests that SP was calling Chronos out and planning to hide behind “SAHM wouldn’t do that,” suggests that four players placed “me too” votes for SP, riding on Gadarene’s analysis (although accepting that the analysis was “masterful,”) and then calls Chipacabra out. Gadarene obviously felt smudged, because he defended himself from the comment; Snickers replied that it was “just a comment" in [post=12834305]post 1537[/post].

This last post pinged me a bit for another reason; Snickers said that she was “not bussing" Gadarene. Around here, when we talk about someone “bussing” another, we generally mean the first person is a Mafiate making a case against another Mafiate. Townies generally talk about “bandwagoning” someone. Now, we know that Gadarene was Town-aligned, so “bussing” is clearly not being used with its normal meaning. But, since this is her first game, and she subbed in at Night, did she get exposed to mafia-aligned lingo, and use it without realising the implications?

Snickers continued to express suspicion of Chronos; see [post=12834350]post 1547[/post]. She raises a question about which canon was being followed (if any) and call Treebeard weird. (Which he is, of course. Just not the most weird.) She continues to express suspicion of Treebeard in [post=12835960]post 1628[/post], and then places a vote (see the next post.)

In [post=12837060]post 1642[/post], on realising she’d been confusing Treebeard with Tom Bombadil, begins to rethink her Chipacabra vote, finally rescinding the vote in [post=12837980]post 1655[/post].

To close out Day 2, she clarified a point for Chronos in [post=12841288]post 1685[/post], then voted Ed in [post=12843361]post 1773[/post], on the grounds that SE outed Chronos and possibly identified other power roles.

My overall impression is that there were a couple of things that made me uneasy, specifically the rather smudge-filled post 1431 and the use of the word “bussing” in 1537.

I won’t now be able to get back to the review until after Dusk, as I have a 5pm deadline today for a job application.

2883

OK, let’s do this:

Vote OaOW

If you put it that way, yes, I can see it. Assuming Astral was “found” on Night 2 (result at start of Day 3), you and Drain were both voting him and he was in the lead to be lynched. Natlaw had no idea what powers or information Astral may have had and so stuck his neck out to save Astral. The other scum (you and Drain) needed to interpret his message, Drain didn’t get it (and wasn’t going to be around later) and you figured Astral had to be pretty valuable for Natlaw to stick his neck out and, when time was running out, you made your move. The alternative was a lynched Astral with a scum flip and an insta-lynch of Natlaw the next Day. At least you’d given both of them an extra Day each and scum had a chance to learn about Astral.

So, the unvote itself is a null-tell but the faulty defense is a strong scum-tell. Add in your posting of the role PM “so Town can have the same information as scum” when you came under pressure - scum knew what you were (either scum or VT), Town were still clueless.

2884

Guiri, that’s exactly how I’m envisioning it went down, too. In my head (which admittedly isn’t reality), this all fits. It almost requires more scum to be involved, given the lateness of the claim. I kind of think that Drain might have switched her vote too too if there’d been more time.

MHaye, I think my use of “bussing” comes from the MafiaWiki and other such references I was reading to get up to speed. There’s a lot of lingo tossed around on those sites, and I didn’t know until just now the shaded implications behind their use! I’m with you that the whole Aragorn/Arwen/Eowyn thing is kind of weird. I think the movies played this up more than is present in the book, too - ISTR that in the books, Aragorn realizes that Eowyn has a crush but doesn’t even give her a shred of hope, really. Maybe **Mahaloth **figured that as an elf, Arwen would have no interest in the toys. Or maybe it was a game mechanic - Eowyn had to use the tools to take down the Witch King or such. I dunno.

Earlier in the game, I was rather curious whether I had a lover type role. I posted a question back in D2 (I think) about whether we should consider if the game would follow movie canon or book canon, mainly because I was concerned about my own fate. I was kind of hoping we’d get some word from **Mahaloth **- in the movie, Arwen’s fate was tied to the fate of the ring, and I thought there was a chance I’d die if either a) the ring was taken or b) Aragorn died. But since I didn’t get any indication from the mod either in game or in my role PM, I didn’t worry about it too much.

I am pretty embarrassed about those early posts - I don’t think I was playing very well then. But, you gots to learn somehow!

2885

¿?

2886

"I do not wish to stay- I would not be included in all the songs and tales only to have them say I was always left behind,” said Oneandonly.

“Do not wish to stay? Left behind? Those sound like the words of an evil coward,” said someone.

“Wait….I mean that I want to continue…” said Oneandonly.

They did not give him a chance to continue in any way.

OneAndOnly is dead. He was Meriadoc Brandybuck, a member of the Alliance of Light. He had no special powers.

It is now Night. Day begins on Saturday(24 hours from now) at 11 AM Eastern.

2887

Well, that’s a right bastard. And I was so sure! Damn.

Sorry, OaOW.

2888

That sucks.

2889

In the morning, it became very clear how few of the Alliance of Light remained. Only a handful of members came out in the morning, and it was clear there was one less of them.

Guiri was missing.

“He was just telling me yesterday about his adventure,” said one individual. “He had said that he would continue, past the destruction of the Ring….to the very end.”

Guiri’s body was found quickly.

Guiri is now dead. He was Samwise Gamgee, a member of the Alliance of Light. Samwise had almost no special powers, but did have a Night Kill under certain circumstances.

It is now Day 8.

Day 8 will end at 4:30 PM on Monday. This gives you the weekend and all the work day on Monday.

2890

Alive

  1. Meeko
  2. Snickers
  3. Inner Stickler
  4. Doctor who
  5. MHaye
  6. HoopyFrood
  7. USCDiver

Dead:

Suburban Plankston – Denethor (Servant of Darkness – No special power)
Telcontar – Legolas (Alliance of Light – Protector)
Chipacabra – Treebeard (Alliance of Light – No special power)
Gadarene – Aragorn (Alliance of Light – Special Objects)
Specialed – Faramir (Alliance of Light – no special powers)
Pleonast – Galadriel (Alliance of Light – Role-blocker with telepathy)
Natlaw – Saruman (Servant of Darkness – Watcher with Palantir)
Redskeezix – Eomer (Alliance of Light – no special power)
AstralRejection – Shelob (Servant of Darkness – Secret servant)
Drain Bead – Sauron (Servant of Darkness – leader and Ring needer)
Nanook – Gandalf (Alliance of Light – Allegiance investigator)
Cucuy – Gollum (No allegiance – Serial Killer and Ring needer)
[/QUOTE]

peekercpa - Boromir (Alliance of Light – no special powers)
Chronos - Eowyn (Alliance of Light - mini-Mason, Special Objects)
One And Only Wanderers - Merry ((Alliance of Light – no special powers)
Guiri - Sam (Alliance of Light - mini-Mason)

2891

That’s all I have time for right now, I’ve got to go to work. I still consider **MHaye **and **Hoopy **to be our most confirmed. For the sake of argument, let’s assume we continue mislynching Today (confirmed 1 killed Tonight), mislynch Tomorrow (confirmed 2 killed Tomorrow night). We end up in a three-man game with no powers and no confirmed roles. Wow, talk about a balanced game! Way to go Mahaloth

2892

Are you mixing up Hoopy and Meeko here? Nanook [post=12892904]reported[/post] that Meeko was Town, its truthfulness confirmed by his death and its accuracy by Drain Bead’s.

2893

Yikes, yes, thanks… I was rushing to get to work and mixed them up in my head.

2894

I would guess nothing can really be said for DoctorWho subbing in.

Mhaye, want to finish what you started here on Hoopy? That is, you could have given hoopy a pass on USCDiver’s mix-up, but you knocked him down a rung. [Rightfully so, but still]

I’m sure some thoughts on Hoopy crossed your mind as you corrected the comment. Care to share?

–

How many more days do we have? Three?

Looks like Scum will feed on M OR M’s tonight. :frowning:

2895

There’s not really anything to share; USCDiver made a detail mistake, and I corrected him. My attention was elsewhere.

There’s either one or (unlikely) two of SAHM left. If the game is 6/1, the lone SAHM needs three mislynches in a row, so three Days (including Today) is the worst case. If there are two, then SAHM need only two mislynches, so two Days.

2896

Claims (not that anyone forgot, but I thought I’d post it for reference.)

Confirmed:
[ul]
[li]MHaye - Frodo[/li][li]Meeko - Celeborn[/li][/ul]

Mostly Confirmed:
[ul]
[li]Hoopy - Elrond[/li][/ul]

Claims:
[ul]
[li]Doctor Who - Theoden[/li][li]Inner Stickler - Gimli[/li][li]Snickers - Arwen[/li][li]USC Diver - Gamling[/li][/ul]

2897

**Vote Count:

No votes.**

25 hours, folks. :slight_smile:

2898

Would you consider extending the deadline until Tuesday? I’m going to do a limited review of the last few days and the cases against the other unconfirmeds, but I’m leaving tomorrow morning to go to Las Vegas for the week and won’t be able to participate in any of the discussion that might arise during the day.

2899

I hate short Days when there’s not a lot of solid evidence to base strategy off of. Especially when things get busy, since I probably won’t be on again until Day end, and if I do, it’s not going to be for long enough to pore through the last 57+ pages. Short Nights make sense, since the only power that seems to be left is the scum kill, and really, the scum only has 3 targets from which to choose, all of whom are vanilla. But short Days suck.

So I’m going to do something I rarely do: piggyback fully on someone else’s case. At least that person is town.

vote: snickers

based on MHaye’s case from yesterDay (2882).

And I apologize for not having the time to make a case of my own.

At the very least, it might get this Day moving somewhere.

2900

I agree with the sentiment there Hoopy and I also have to put a vote in tonight if we aren’t going to extend the Day. **MHaye **and **Guiri **both made cases on different players yesterday before settling on OAOW. We could be in a situation where the remaining Scum is WIFOMing us here. Did he kill Guiri because he was hot on the trail or is that what he wants us to think!?

For now I’m also going to vote Snickers. I’ll check again in the AM before leaving and hopefully in ATL for my connection.

On another note: I was thinking that I had not seen any conclusive evidence that the Scum team had the PM, so I just spent a few minutes looking back at the handshake conversation up until the point where special ed posted the PM verbatim. I didn’t see anything in **Suburban **or **NatLaw’s **posts during that time to indicate they had seen the vanilla PM (and **Astral **presumably was still unknown to scum and had not been given access to the scum boards or a cover PM). However I did find in Drain Bead’s post #394, her attempt at the handshake. So if someone else has already pointed that out and I missed it, I duplicated your work.