LOTR - Third Age Without the Rings of Powers...

Cafe Society
1

…without the inherent powers of the istari, without interference by other maiars such as tom bombadil, no dragons. sauron is kept alive without the need for a ring. his powers of persuasion and command are intact.

question: could the events have unfolded much the same? what’s a more likely outcome?

time context: start with the nine riders entering the shire (beginning of the war of the ring.)

2

Well, for a start, what are the Nazgul doing in the shire with no one ring to pursue? Scratch that, with no rings of power, the Nazgul do not exist.

Assuming the one ring was destroyed at the end of the second age, as it should have been, there are a number of consequences. I’ll assume that Sauron survived because he placed less of his essence into the one ring, so that while diminished, he retains some of his powers. No disaster of the Gladden Fields, so the dunedain of Arnor are strengthened. No Witch-King, no Angmar, so we can be pretty sure Arnor would have survived and prospered. No thain, as there is still a king in Arnor. Minas Ithil would probably still be in Gondor’s hands, with no ringwraiths to lead the siege against it. With Ithilien still occupied, Gondor has some extra manpower to draw on. Sauron might have a fight on his hands when re-occupying Mordor. A second fortress also helps protect Gondor from attacks from the Easterlings and Haradrim. Any army advancing far into Gondor risks being attacked in the rear and being cut off. It also makes it harder for Sauron to mass his forces, no Haradrim wandering up to the black gate. Finally, no Saruman to threaten Anorien/Rohan.

On the other hand, Sauron would have started to take shape earlier in the third age, being less dependent on his ring, so his plans might be further advanced. Without Galadriel’s ring to protect it, Lothlorien might well be deserted, many elves fled when the Balrog awoke in Moria. The population of Rivendell and Lindon is diminished, more elves have wearied of and left middle-earth. No Gandalf, but in this scenario he isn’t as crucial, it’s pretty much a straight military campaign.

Sauron still has numbers on his side, with the population of the east and south at his disposal, and orses, lots of orcses. He is robbed of his great terror weapon, the Nazgul. Reading the account of the siege of Minas Tirith, without them there will be no quick victory over a fortress. This makes dealing with Gondor a real problem, a besieging army is vulnerable to counter-attack. He needs to take Minas Ithil first, as his forces can be safely (well, Shelob can only eat so many) supplied down the pass of Cirith Ungol.

All this is subject to some serious butterfly effect. For example, a stronger Gondor may never have ceded Anorien to the Rohirrim. A lot depends on how co-ordinated the forces of the west are. If they are isolated, Sauron can grind them down and pick them off one at time. If they are united, they may be able to hold off Sauron’s forces indefinitely.

3

i basically agree with your ground preparations (events long before the war.)

other assumptions:

  1. saruman would still fall into treachery. if rohan was not very strategic for gondor (as you posited,) he and sauron might have tagged-teamed on the leadership in gondor. more likely, he will try to weaken support from the north or the south. he’s not likely to influence the elves.
  2. since the shire is too far and no longer relevant. we’ll have to consider the concentration of armed power. for the west, it would be gondor with rohan to the west, the south (under imrahil, etc.), lakemen near lonely mountain, elves in lorien, dwarves in the lonely mountain. not much concentration of war-like folk elsewhere.
  3. gondor will have enough power to occupy mordor (or at least keep a close watch.)
  4. sauron will still focus his skills on destroying potential support for gondor. the real war begins when he can muster enough to openly go against osgiliath/minas tirith.
  5. aragorn as a statesman will have to work more closely with men and dwarves. he was too much under the protection and guidance of elves in the story. this is where his biggest likelihood of failure lies. all we can assume is his claim to the throne in gondor goes well with the people.
  6. it takes only a decisive victory for gondor to send sauron hiding for another 500 years.
4

The istari are active but powerless then?

I question whether Saruman would turn traitor in this scenario. He has far less incentive to do so, with no hope of gaining control of the one ring. If he does, the best he can hope for is to become a lackey of Sauron, rather than the ruler of middle-earth. Something I forgot, Sauron no longer has control of a palantir, so he cannot directly corrupt/dominate Saruman as he does in the book.

That the dunedain in the north and south can use the palantirs safely gives them a major advantage. They are forewarned of any attacks, and can co-ordinate their forces more easily. Sauron also lacks this ability, there is no “eye of Sauron”.

Anorien has still been ceded to the Rohirrim then? I suppose we can also assume Saruman has occupied Isenguard.

“Liberating” Mordor is probably Sauron’s priority, as he needs somewhere to breed-up his orc armies, and food from the plains of Nurn to supply them.

If Aragorn even exists, he is only a minor noble. Aragorn is descended from Valandil, but Isildur had 3 older sons who were killed at Gladden Fields.