Lots of good movies coming out this year. What movie do you think will be number one?

So I was looking at this page on Wikipedia. On it, it shows the top box office movies that the year has put out (so far). Granted right now the year is still fairly new, so it should be no surprise that the number one movie of the year (up until now) is Journey 2: The Mysterious Island. I don’t expect that will hold the number one spot for very long, however.

Because looking at the list of movies coming out in 2012, there’s a lot of good ones. I wonder which one, after the year is over, will be the one to keep the number one spot?

Here’s just an example of some of the movies that, I feel, will be among the top contenders for taking number one:
American Reunion
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
Abraham Lincoln, Vampire Hunter
The Amazing Spider-Man
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

If I had to guess, I’d predict that The Dark Knight Rises will be the number one movie on that list after the year is over. After all, The first Dark Knight became number one by a long shot the year it came out.
But there’s a few that may give it a run for its money. After all, another Peter Jackson LOTR-universe movie? That might be pretty good competition. And I know a ton of people who’ve been dying for The Avengers movie to finally come out. That one will definitely make a dent in the top ten list.
So what movie do you think will be number one by the time the end of 2012 is here? Feel free to choose from the list here or choose your own from the list of all the movies (also onthis page–just scroll down past the top ten list)

The Dark Knight Rises and The Hobbit are the safe bets.

The Amazing Spider-Man should be big, but it’s a pretty quick reboot and Spider-man 3 was kind of a stinker, so that may temper its box office somewhat.

I would really like The Avengers to be a big hit. The trailer looks pretty sweet. I’m a big fan of Joss Whedon and I’d love to see him have a huge theatrical success.

I don’t think American Reunion has a chance of being anywhere near the top. There’ve been a couple of lackluster sequels already, plus some really bad (from what I’ve heard) direct-to-video spinoffs. This one has most of the old gang back, but I just don’t think audiences are going to turn out in droves for this.

The Hobbit, as long as you accept that a ton of its money will come in the following year’s January.

Otherwise, Dark Knight Rises.

Are we ending at Dec. 31 or for any movie released this year?

I was just thinking whatever movie is number one by Dec 31st, 2012…although you do raise a good point of The Hobbit probably making a lot more money after December.
I’ll just keep track of both, heh.

ETA: My prediction is still The Dark Knight Rises either way. I think even after, say, April of next year, The Dark Knight Rises stats will dwarf (no pun intended) The Hobbits.

A friend just wrapped working on the sequel to Taken (cleverly called Taken 2) and he said it is surprisingly good and should do well at the box office.

However, if I were a betting man who had money, I would most certainly plunk some coin into **Skyfall **(the new James Bond film coming out in November) and The Hobbit.
I figure both of those films will do quite nicely at the box office.

I’m looking forward to Prometheus.

I would be shocked if Dark Knight Rises isn’t #1. I don’t know if it’ll outdo Dark Knight, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it ends in the top 5 all-time box office.

“Lots of good movies coming out this year.”

Well, that remains to be seen.

The Hunger Games could be a contender. It’s got the YA demographic.

I think it will be “The Hobbit” then “Dark Knight Rises” then “Brave” then “Prometheus” then “Hunger Games.”

Maybe not strictly that order, but those will be the top 5.

Had a friend who worked on Hunger Games, said it was a dog, but he’s not really the target demographic.

Maybe. But I’m thinking the closest comparison would be the Twilight movies and those did well in ticket sales.

Twilight - $392,616,625
New Moon - $709,827,462
Eclipse - $698,491,347
Breaking Dawn - $705,058,657

Like, an awesome dog who is amazing? That kind of dog?

Yeah, I’m going to go with that kind.

Don’t forget Wreck-It Ralph. That’s going to be Disney’s annual animated feature and it’s scheduled for a Thanksgiving release.

I have never heard of Wreck-It Ralph, so I figure that means it will be beaten by a country mile by ParaNorman.

That’s a risky bet. Never underestimate the Mouse. Wreck-It Ralph will have a Disney marketing campaign backing up its release. ParaNorman is being put out by a small studio, Laika, that’s only releasing its second movie.

I truly do not mean to threadshit, but I would like to ask you (or anyone contributing to this thread) why you care about how much money a movie makes.

I began to wonder about this a few years ago when I noticed that the news on Mondays would talk about who won the weekend movie box office. I can certainly understand that the studios would release those figures to try to get free publicity for their movies. And if it’s your job to pick movies, or if you have money invested in a studio, then you’d certainly like to know about its success or failure. (The news always covers it as an entertainment story, not business, though.) I could just never figure out why I’m supposed to be interested.

I’m wondering if any of these movies will be good, certainly, but that’s not the same as making a lot of money.

I don’t care how much money a movie makes. You’re reading too much into my reasons for this thread and asking what I’m asking (either that or you’re vastly misunderstanding my motives/reasoning for this thread).

I could care less what movie makes the most money. All I’m wondering/curious about is what movie will be number one. I have my guesses (which I said above) and asked others to name theirs.
The fact that the list is based on how much money the movies make is completely coincidental to my wondering/curiosity.

I’m wondering what movie the most people will go to see that will vault it into the top spot (eventually), that’s all.

I expect great things from Brave. Seems like more often than not, the big “family” movie is the year’s top earner.

Exactly how could a movie be number one, and not make the most money?

If you had said “best movie” of the year, well - that could be the Oscar winner which indeed is very rarely (never?) the “number one” film in terms of box office. But otherwise, the “number one” film of the year is, by definition, the one that makes the most money.

Speaking of which, didn’t there used to be a game on this board where people invested a certain amount of fictional money in upcoming films to see who could predict which films would be most profitable? I think the rules were to use only box office from opening weekend, but I could swear this used to be a tradition years ago on the SDMB.