Lounsbury on Iraq & MENA: War, Politics, Economy & Related Questions

Great Debates
281

I’m sorry Collounsbury, my good man… I have to apologise for changing my mind and deciding to take you task over something… but before I do, I acknowledge that you’re currently having about 30 different conversations in this thread with different people - and as such - it surely can’t be an easy thing to do.

This is where I sense a dash of confusion… you see… it’s my assertion that the globe’s most “stable” societies are also those societies which have made, and continue to make, a concerted commitment to (1) established property rights, (2) quality education, and (3) stamping out corruption and black market activities.

Accordingly, it matters not whether one or two countries (within the MENA countires) are bringing the overall “rates” down… where you lost me is that by your own words, access to quality education (in the MENA countires) is “often, even usually” quite poor - ergo, I can’t see how you can concurrently accuse myself of making a gross generalisation (regarding education therein) when you basically agree with my assertion?

Again… you lost me just a little bit here. In my original post, I was really hoping that I had made it clear that I’m approaching this subject in terms of “trying to understand the human psyche” - not just the “Arab pysche” in isolation. I’m 100% certain Coll that I’ve got a VERY healthy handle on the fact that human nature is human nature, the world over - and that differences in any given culture are caused by the stimulii which exist WITHIN that culture. I conceded, from the very outset, that I understand INNATELY that different influences are at play in the MENA countries compared to the peace and tranquility which exists in say, Southport, QLD. Australia - but nowhere in my original post did I imply that some sort of magical blueprint exists in the Western World which can be plonked down any where, any time, and that the “on switch” can automatically be turned on and everything will be fine overnight.

To the contrary, I put forward the assertion that there are some very cozy business arrangements at play in the MENA countries which transcend all of the region - and you basically agreed with me when you wrote…

and yet nonetheless, you also chose to offer that I

Not for a moment am I asserting that people in the Middle East think just like me - indeed, the exact opposite is abundantly obvious. My position is that the human beings of the Middle East, if in some sort of weird parallel universe were the human beings of the Western World and vice verse, I predict that if the same historic timelines had manifested themselves, then the same sort of reactions and behaviour would be evident. My goal remains thus… what stimulii are at play in the Middle East? And what can be done to remove those stimulii?

I guess you could say that I’m trying to approach this subject in a reasoned, scientific manner - which I’d like to think is throughly in keeping with the desired mission statement of the Straight Dope Message Board! :smiley:

Well gee Coll (wink)… I don’t know how either you or I can solve that particular Catch-22 then, can we? You see, it’s human nature to resist change - (no matter how well off we are) because of the innate “fear of the unknown” that change brings with it. Accordingly, it could also be argued that unless the powers that be (in the MENA countries) recognise that a need for change is necessary, then neither the “top” NOR the “bottom” will ever make an effort to request such change.

Hence, the amateur anthropologist in me argues thus - any society which consciously chooses to inspire every new generation to be even MORE well educated than the last, by extension, breeds an innate desire within those new generations for evolutionary change for the better. My assertion is this - there are more than a few vested interests in the MENA countries - in particular, those elites who are over 40 years of age who are still in positions of power - who would actively work against this philosophy if they could. And this is why I quoted the age demographic in Iran as being the exception to the rule you see. It appears that wittingly, or unwittingly, Iran has bred an entire generation of well educated youngsters who desire positive evolution from “within” Iranian society.

In closing, once again, great thread Collounsbury! Thanks heaps!

282

Sure you can, send me money. I think $250/hr is reasonable. Ha.

Precisely, the situation is fluid and delicate. While I have sympathy for its near impossibility to do perfectly right for the poor soldiers, at the same time it is necessary to emphasize the importance of ‘winning hearts and minds’ – which requires doing things that speak to the Iraqis, not to our complacent view of what the Iraqis should want.

No.

How do you fight nationalist sentiment in an atmosphere of generalized distrust of the United States?

I do not see a mass popular movement arising because I do not think there is enough unity in Iraqi ranks to do that. Iraqi society is fractured on many different levels, and while negative unity against the outsider seems achievable, positive unity under present conditions does not.

I am hard pressed to come up with a perfect approach. Occupation breeds resentment, but at the same time the nature of the regime means that occupation will be necessary. Clearly the Bush regime needs to back away from its muscular unilateralism, bury the hatchet with the French and others, and come up with a largley Arab based interim international administration.

The Pentagon’s visions of an American military governate, in my opinion, is recipe for disaster.

283

I wrote out a check but…

Can’t both issues you mention be addressed through effective leadership? Can you think of any respected Iraqi leader who might fit the bill? How about a coalition of Iraqi leaders from different communities? Even if they are not entirely noble-intentioned and seek to utilize the current situation for some personal gain, isn’t this a great time to rally the positive energy within the people into envisioning a better post-Saddam Iraq?

284

That’s very interesting. Could you expand a little please? Do you think there is a direction of causation here? Does the repressive state necessitate reliance on informal and personalised institutions? Or does the persistance of traditional ways of getting things done in the absence of well-defined property rights make repressive government the only viable type? How is urbanisation changing this?

285

This is going to sound ugly. This is going to sound very ugly. But I put my brain on NeoCon mode, started thinking all neanderthal, and some very basic questions popped up. These are not my opinions, but they’re fairly valid in and of themselves.

Firstly, with this step, the US has shifted back to Empire. Depending on how this works, we may go into full colonialism mode.

So, we win the war. It’s ugly, it’s brutal, but it’s over, more or less. We build a couple big-ass military bases… it’s as good as an aircraft carrier. Maybe better, in some ways. Nice big thumping stick in the middle of one of the three great trouble zones. And we start educating the population, long-haul style. Rebuild the country. Why should we care what the other countries think? What can they do to us that they’re not doing already. So they go into horrible meltdowns, what do we care? From a brutally unmoral standpoint, isn’t it good for us that they do?

I’m not saying anything like this goes through our Dear Leader’s head, but if it does, and it’s clearly a worst case scenario to the rest of the world, what would the results be?

286

Well, a genuine answer requires a book.

I believe the causation is bi-directional, but in large part derives from the weak historical depth for most of the states as national entities, combined with the historical social and political structures that characterized the pre-colonial period. I prefer to let Tamerlane tag in to speak to those as he has a better library on hand to address those.

I am not sure, in the end, about the issue of property rights in re state development. Something of a chicken and egg situation perhaps. I would be inclined to opine that the property rights issue is tied to traditional forms of social organization, which in turn impedes/impeded economic progress in the past century (in combination with many other factors, including colonial impacts), which in its turn is a barrier to strong & healthy state development.

Very complicated issue, I give a lot of thought to, but very hard to answer. In many respects, I think sub-regional answers are more informative. The Gulf is fairly different from the Levant, which in turn is different from Egypt & Sudan which in turn is different from North Africa. In general, my personal prejudice is to break up the region into these segements: North Africa, very much it’s own unit. Egypt, might be placed with the Levant, but I prefer not. The Gulf. Iraq and Iran in some ways I see as a unit of analysis also. In some ways.

Oman and Yemen… oddballs, although Oman I can place in a Gulf analysis.

As for urbanisation changing this: clearly urbanisation is melting down old identities. That is very clear. But this has not yet resulted in clear or stable new ones. That adds to the explosive nature of the social climate. People frequently feel unanchored. Much of the modern Islamist movement arises from just this, in a manner I think analagous (loosely) to European extreme nationalist movements in the 19th century. Much of Islamism is surprisingly “modern” – alhtough often mixed in and confused with old style “roots” or Salafi movements, which were and are more or less conservative.

For example, the chief rep of the head of the Maghrebine Islamists is the Cheikhs’ daughter… Yes, his daughter, who speaks quite fluent French and is hardly, at least the last time I kept up with this, a wallflower.

Clearly blockages in re economic change are a serious problem, an explosive one. But, as mentioned earlier in this thread, places like Egypt, it is hard to imagine them overcoming them. The transitional period is just too explosive.

287

Well it rather more sounds like you have not read the thread.

That would be an immense and grave error.

Only if you think increasing the number of terror attacks and having American troops surrounded by a hostile population is a good thing. I personally think it is, to use an old phrase of mine, droolingly stupid to engage in a policy that will have American troops exposed over a long term to terror attacks. We can already see from past historical experiences, such as Somali and Lebanon in recent times, but going back to the Phillipines that the kind of operation you describe require enormous bloodshed on all sides, and what benefit?

Thsi would be, in short, a lose-lose situation.

Body bags without end.

288

Sorry only accept wire transfers to my Swiss Account.

There is no Iraqi leadership outside of the Baath party. The situation is rather like asking for alternatives to Stalin in 1950. Exiles are long sundered from their country, the communities are split.

Positive energy is all well and fine, but Iraq is not a nation. It is a state with a quasi nationalism, with Sunni and Shiite Arabs against each other, and both, I would hazard the opinion, against the non-Arab.

It is, to be short, a tar baby.

That is why I have argued for an international and Arabized transitional administration, until things become clearer. It may be out of the wreckage some statesman (and it will be a man) will emerge. Maybe.

289

About time you got back to important business! This making a living is all very well, but you have truly important duties to perform. I trust I need not remind you.

As to the necessity of a strong leader for Iraq’s future, I point out Mr. Forbes suggestion of Newt Gangrene for the role of Proconsul. Personally, I think this is a suggestion that ranks close to sending Henry Kissinger as our envoy to the Kurds. No doubt, they would be happy to have him in thier…midst.

290

Yes, in fact, I have read the thread, which is why I was attempting to take the worst case scenario. From what I understand, and I admit some of it was going over my head, Bush is doing things almost exactly wrong, and most of the thread was about how things should be done more properly, and what reaction is likely to be like.

I wanted to take the opposite tack, and assume that things go from bad to worse.

I understand the terrorism and nigh-constant suicide attacks and Fortress Iraq that will result from treating it as a conquered country. That much, I can predict on my own.

What I’m trying to guess at is what happens to the rest of the nations with this hugely destabilizing influence now present in the middle of their front yard. With ‘an Iraq of our own’, and continual Bushism, do you think we’d stop supporting the Saud? Egypt, you mentioned, is heading for a horrible collapse, we might see religious dictatorships right and left… I don’t know. What’s the worst that could happen?

Personally, I think that’s fairly unlikely on the long order of things, but something similar might happen in the near order, say, in the next year or so after the opening of hostilities.

291

Thanks for your thoughts, Collounsbury.

Or several. An educated opinion is what I was after. I may have asked you before, but have you read Douglass North?

In my more pessimistic moments I wonder whether the Industrial Revolution’s aftermath was the time when it wasn’t. There are few counterexamples.

292

If I’m totally off-base here, please don’t hesitate to correct me. I’m trying to understand this as well as I can.

However, I think something is missing from the analyses that I’ve seen so far, and that is time and realpolitik.

Between the two, anything can become ‘acceptable’, usually in the period of (WAG) five years or so. So, we can assume that things will shift from near-term effects to long-term effects within that period, provided that the near-term effects are not a chain of revolutions within each country. That might go on for some time.

So, the critical moment is the first few years, which will probably have the US in nominal control of Iraq, with random terrorist-style events occuring at a frequency I can’t judge, but probably slightly less frequent than the Palestinians… I hope. Though potentially far more serious in raw power per event.

293

Well, hello again everyone. I’m home once again, and while the caffeine is in the process of kicking in I’ll try to address some of the issues raised during my trip.

I’m not quite sure how to expand on the Stalin/Saddam parallel; I really don’t have the depth of Soviet historical knowledge to provide any further grand perspectives, but if someone wants to ask a specific question or point of clarification I’ll take a crack at it. Being an area studies person rather than strictly a historian, I’d like to think that although I’m pretty decent at asking the right questions to determine why people hold the opinions they do, and at being open to other ways of thinking, my knowledge is broad rather than deep.

A couple of questions for the others, then:

**Collounsbury, ** so if you could create your own fantasy Iraqi postwar administration, who would it include, and why? (I actually stated a thread on this subject in your absence, but only got half a dozen responses, mostly one-liners.) Feel free to name either specific individuals, or profiles of what kind of people you have in mind in terms of what kind of background and experiences you think could be most useful.

And to anyone who cares to respond: what can individual Americans do (beyond demonstrating, which has been more than amply covered in dozens of threads) to show the rest of the world, but especially the Middle East, that not all Americans believe that Bush et. al. are doing the right thing?

If nothing else good comes out of this Godawful mess, I at least hold out hope that maybe if the current administration totally botches foreign policy on the Iraq issue, subsequent ones will see that it is at least partially due to the lack of appropriate area expertise in the proper places in government that could have provided some much-needed perspective on why various sectors of Iraqi society behave the way they do, and will create more funding and educational/entry-level employment opportunities for Americans in this and related areas.

Of course, the failure of the educational and foreign policy administration to hire many area studies grads is just plain silly IMO, and could be the subject of several threads, probably in the Pit. Most of the people I went to grad school with, except for the couple of military officers who were in the program at any one time, didn’t even bother applying for jobs at the State Dept., military, CIA, etc., because they perceived the environment would be hostile to their viewpoint. I have the greatest respect for those career diplomats who honestly do their job and try to impart their reasoned perspectives to those who don’t even realize how badly they need them, but these days it must be a pretty thankless position, as evidenced by the recent resignations of a couple of career DOS employes.

294

Oh, and what proportion of Iraqis, especially outside Baghdad and other large cities, have ever met and/or had a meaningful interaction with a foreigner, particulary a foreigner not employed by a foreign nation’s petroleum industry? I know when I was in the USSR the first time, in 1989, most of the people I became close to were from small towns and/or remote areas (we were living in a dorm, which meant the students who lived there weren’t locals, plus the dorm was primarily history and foreign language students, plus those on exchange from other countries, including everything from Cubans to Vietnamese to Africans who had Soviet government scholarships to come study in the Motherland). Many had never met a living, breathing American before me, and they were astonished at the variety of perspectives and backgrounds among those in our group. I think some of them learned almost as much from us as we did from them. Much ignorance was fought that semester, that’s for sure. It was exhausting for us; people would knock on our doors at al hours, wanting to meet “the Americans.” By 1995 when I went back the second time, there was a different feel; many had met Americans by then, but usually businesspeople or Mormon missionaries, and the Russians were pretty disgusted by what they saw as the condescension of these groups toward them. he Russians were sick of people trying to impose their own “superior,” foreign way of doing things on them, as if the Russians were stupid children. It was counterproductive and only created unnecessary resentment against Americans. The result has been events like Russia expelling all Peace Corps volunteers, saying that “we don’t need American help; it’s not like we’re a third world country or something! We can damn well set up our own schools.”

I hope I’m making sense, but fear I’m not. What I mean to ask is to what degree do various sectors of Iraqi society have a realistic impression of ordinary Americans, as opposed to sound bites of Bush, military officials, and oil company executives?

295

We have recently afforded them that opportunity. We have placed among them very ordinary American citizens: our children. I have not the least doubt about the humanity and generosity of our soldiers. They are the kind of guys who will get down off thier tank and offer assistance if you have car trouble, as has been recently tragicly demonstrated.

It is our leadership they despise, and rightly so.

296

**Well, I’ll take a shot at this.

To the Man On The Street, it looks like, “Hey, you supported these guys and these guys and those guys–what’s the BFD all of a sudden with this particular guy? Huccome he has to go?”

Even a kindergartner would say, “Hanh?”

(“You let him and him and him wear their baseball caps backwards–how come I can’t wear my baseball cap backwards?”)

P.S. Yes, “Edit Post” function is disabled at the adminstrative level, so people have to stand by what they said–no posting something inflammatory that touches off multiple Pit threads, and then going back and “fixing” it and saying, disingenuously, “I never said that! Show me where I said that…”

297

I wouldn’t be so sure.

298

Interesting article there about the difference between British and American troops.

istara spoke of how ex-pats are itching to enter Iraq and fight.
If one watches US cable news, you get the impression the Iraqi resistance stems primarily from bodily threat to the families of civilians and soldiers. How much is that a factor as opposed to nationalism? And, could it be possible that US leadership is as dangerously clueless as not understanding and acknowledging the psyche of the Iraqi public which possibly inspires the military resistance. (Didn’t the same thing happen in Vietnam?)

299

Here’s an excerpt from an article in today’s (Irish) Sunday Tribune, which unfortunately is not online. A quote from a Shi’a Muslim fighting the invasion:

Sounds like nationalism to me.

300

I took this suggestion. I do appreciate the time and the thoughts you have shared with all of us. I am interested in the situation and searching for understanding. I am amazed by the knowledge you have. And Tamerlane too. Thanks for this thread. I know you have great demands upon your time. I hope you will continue.

I have to say however, that this is such a mess, and success seems so unrealistic that it depresses me.