Followup on this thread, which I expect to be locked soon for reasons explained therein.
After more than two years in jail on immigration-fraud charges, Luis Posada Carriles has been released and returned to Miami, under house arrest. See also here. Wikipedia article here. (Dude’s 79 – even older than Castro.)
Cuba is predictably pissed.
Venezuela is demanding his extradition and may take the case to the UN.
What now? What should the U.S. do with LPC?
Why should there even be any debate? He’s wanted for terrorism and murder. It only serves to highlight US hypocrisy. The old enemy of my enemy is my friend bullshit.
I believe I’ve read that there are people in Guantanamo who voluntarily surrendered to US custody and are known – by US intelligence – not to be terrorists.
Any government that would release Carriles and hold those people would be practicing the rankest hypocrisy.
Surely our morally upright president would never do such a thing. I refuse to believe this is anything other than another lie from the liberal media.
Sailboat
I think it’s about time we stopped expecting high moral standards from Governments. No one is surprised when companies act in an amoral fashion. And it’s the same kind of people running the world. Hell, it’s the same people in many cases.
And why the hell are the google ad’s asking me to sponsor a child? Because someone mentioned the president?
Here’s another consideration: If we extradite Posada to Venezuela, he will not face the death penalty, which Venezuela does not have. OTOH, Venezuela might extradite him in turn to Cuba, where he is also a wanted criminal, and which does have the death penalty. Is it ethical to risk that, whatever his crimes? (Yes, yes, I know we have the DP here too, but Posada is not in any danger of it here.)
Given that we (the U.S.) pitch a fit whenever any other country refuses to extradite for death penalty reasons, we have no ground to stand on there either.
I missed this thread until now so I will just post what I wrote in your other thread on this subject, and answer your question.
I have been learning about this case recently. Two things stand out from my perspective, one Posada Carriles was not the only leader of the plot to bomb Cubana 455, Orlando Bosch was mentioned. Orlando Bosch is living in Miami after going through a very similar set of circumstances to come into the US some years back. You don’t hear word one from anyone about him.
The second is that this is pretty much how things work in Cuba, whip up public outrage about this thing or the other to distract the people from whatever happens to be going on. Righ now what’s going on in Cuba is that a purge of the government is taking place, 4 ministers replaced in the last 6 months, and obviously the transfer of power from Fidel to Raul. That is all, the international outrage is a nice bonus for the Cuban government but the target of the outrage has always been the people in Cuba.
What I would love to see is to have Posada (by the way why does the press insist on using his two last names?, the guy’s name is Luis Posada Carriles, much the way the Fidel’s name is Fidel Castro Ruz but Fidel is just Castro.) Anyway, I would love to see Posada face trial in the US, I don’t know if that’s possible but the US is the only country where he’s likely to get something more than a show trial.
Well, the difference is, Bosch does not appear to have been convicted of anything, even in absentia.
American editors tend to get a little baffled by Latino nomenclature. Some day they’ll settle on some consistent style rules.
Unfortunately he does not appear to have committed any crimes here, other than entering the country illegally (the usual punishment for which is deportation).
As far as I can tell Posada was never convicted either. He was jailed awaiting trial when he escaped.
I figured that there would be problems trying him in the US, but I just don’t see a fair trial anywhere else.
Ok some more details on Posada’s status. He was acquitted twice in Venezuela of bombing Cubana 455, he escaped from jail because the Venezuelan government refused to release him even after the acquittals. In 2000 he was convicted in Panama of trying to kill Fidel however he was pardoned by Panama’s president in 2004. At least I think he was pardoned, in spanish he was ‘indultado’ which my Spanish-English link says is pardoned.
Thanks for the insights, lalenin. Is there any provision in Venezuela against triple jeopardy?
Regards,
Shodan
Not really sure. For one thing Posada’s case was seriously mishandled by the Venezuelan authorities, and additionally Venezuelan law is more fluid than in the US or Canada. I have read that he was tried by a civilian court, but they decided they had no jurisdiction so they transfered the case to a military court, who decided much the same, and transfered the case back to another civilian court. My guess is that if he is sent back to Venezuela he will be tried again, no concern about double or triple jeopardy.
Or possibly simply throw him back into prison regardless.
With Chavez at the helm, I don’t doubt this. 
I would love to hear your thoughts on what will happen when Fidel goes to meet his Maker and Raul takes over. Has there been much attempt to create the same cult of personality over Raul as for Fidel?
If it is not too much of a hijack.
Regards,
Shodan
There are two answers to your question, one is what I think will happen the other is what I hope will happen. What I think will happen is nothing. Cuba’s government will continue as ever, the Castros have absolute control of the government and the military. All major enterprises in Cuba are run by military generals, and many of those generals are either related by birth or marriage to Fidel or Raul in some way (sometimes the relationship is tenous, like marrying the cousing of someone’s wife), or they are historical, meaning they are from the old guard. They have power now, and may or may not in some other system, so they will fight to keep the current system going.
What I hope will happen is that economic reforms take place, allowing for a middle class to develop, which will in time call for and get more and more political opening. But that’s just a hope.
Interesting - thanks for your reply.
Raul is not that much younger than Fidel. What happens when Raul also achieves room temperature? Is there a clear line of succession?
Regards,
Shodan
Castros all the way down. There are sons and nephews all over the place.
Any front-runners? I assume none of them are being groomed as next-in-line.
Regards,
Shodan
Fidel Castro’s oldest son is the likely candidate. He has been a minister and nuclear scientist, but more importantly his mother is Mirta Diaz-Balart, Fidel’s first wife, whose family has always wielded political power in Cuba, and is also an aunt to two US congressmen Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart. That’s some family, no?
Thanksgiving dinner must be…interesting.
Update: A federal judge in Texas just dismissed the immigration-fraud indictment against Posada.