Lunsford/Couey kidnap/murder case: Likely fallout?

[margin]

@Sample_the_Dog

To those who would seek death or castration for those convicted of child molestation, you might check out today’s AP story on yesterday’s Michael Jackson trial.

A psychologist testifying for the prosecution (Anthony J. Urquiza) testified that 2-6 percent of molestation charges are false. Keep in mind that in selecting their expert witnesses, it’s in the interest of the prosecution to minimize this figure.

.

False or unfounded? Many people conflate the two, and depending on the agenda at hand, label any case which does not have enough evidence for conviction as ‘false’ with all its implications of lying.

DOJ has found pretty consistantly that the false report rate for sex offenses is the same as that of other crimes.

I’ll see if I can find the cite.

[BwanaBob]

I hope this is a wake-up call to all those naive people who think they live in a nice neighborhood where everyone is a saint—

LOCK YOUR FUCKING DOORS!

This vermin might still have tried to break in, but then maybe someone might have awoken and interrupted this horror.

[Sample_the_Dog]

@margin

False or unfounded?

The word used in the AP article reporting on the prosecution witness’s testimony was “lies”.

@AP

The child psychologist testified that, in his findings, only 2-6 percent of reported molestations prove to be lies.

Note that I’m not claiming this testimony was accurate, but just that an expert witness in a high profile case, who as a prosecution witness can be expected to err on the side of caution, is willing to admit a false accusation rate this high. Something to consider for the “kill or castrate on first conviction” crowd.

@margin

DOJ has found pretty consistantly that the false report rate for sex offenses is the same as that of other crimes.

I’ll see if I can find the cite.

Cool, I would appreciate that. I’ve also heard reference to that stat before, but can’t recall where. Would love to see the data.

Btw, I didn’t link to the original article b/c I read it on an ephemeral site (reposting of the AP article on a temporary page where stories of the day are rotated in and out). Should be easy to find by Googling.

[Sample_the_Dog]

CourtTV’s Crime Library Web site is running a poll asking readers what should be done with “convicted pedophiles” after they’ve served their sentence. As of right now…

Just under 1/3 of responders favor keeping them locked up in prison for life even after their sentence is done.

Just under 1/4 of responders favor putting them on work farms separated from society for the rest of their lives.

That means over 1/2 of all responders favor keeping all “pedophiles” (which, I assume, means child molesters as well as adults who expose themselves to kids) incarcerated forever.

Right at 1/3 favor monitoring bracelets for life. Less than 8% favor rehab, and less than 4% say they “don’t know”.

[Evil_Captor]

@Sample_the_Dog

CourtTV’s Crime Library Web site is running a poll asking readers what should be done with “convicted pedophiles” after they’ve served their sentence. As of right now…

Just under 1/3 of responders favor keeping them locked up in prison for life even after their sentence is done.

Just under 1/4 of responders favor putting them on work farms separated from society for the rest of their lives.

That means over 1/2 of all responders favor keeping all “pedophiles” (which, I assume, means child molesters as well as adults who expose themselves to kids) incarcerated forever.

Right at 1/3 favor monitoring bracelets for life. Less than 8% favor rehab, and less than 4% say they “don’t know”.

I’m for rehab generally, and for well-funded research programs to find rehab techniques that work. In the long run, cheaper, smarter, more humane. That makes me a dirty liberal pinko commie I guess. (I’d let Ann Coulter tryh to kill me, if she promised to do it naked with her hands tied behind her back, using only her tongue.)

[Sample_the_Dog]

In a story by Mark Memmott of USA Today (25 March 2005)*, an argument is made for concentrating funding on tracking “the sex offenders most likely to repeat their crimes”.

Sadly, Couey doesn’t fit this profile, and so may well have “fallen through the cracks” anyway.

However, I’m worried that his case, as unusual as it is, will actually work against efforts such as those being promoted in this (imho) sane and reasoned article.

Some excerpts (omissions indicated by ellipses, emphasis mine):

… “We have 41,000 names on our (sex offenders) registry,” [says Allison Taylor, executive director of the Texas Council on Sex Offender Treatment]. “If we could take our money and focus it on the 10% or so who are most likely to reoffend, we could make great progress.”

In fact, most sex offenders are less likely to reoffend than other criminals.

“Studies show that most sex offenders do not reoffend after being caught,” says Karl Hanson, a psychologist and senior research officer at Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada…

Hanson, one of the world’s leading authorities on sex offenders, says counseling, an offender’s past, and even polygraph tests help identify the “highest-risk reoffenders.” Those individuals need to be imprisoned for “very long sentences,” he says…

Jessica’s murder and Couey’s arrest have prompted Florida state Rep. Charles Dean to **draft legislation that would require the state’s convicted sex offenders not only to be registered and to report their whereabouts to authorities, but also to wear GPS tracking devices ** after being released from prison.

About 50,000 names are on the state’s sex-offender registry.

Experts who treat sex offenders say tracking devices and registries alone won’t protect the public. “If we’re just going to go down that path, we do ourselves and society a great disservice,” says Fred Berlin, director of the National Institute for the Study, Prevention and Treatment of Sexual Trauma in Baltimore and a professor of psychiatry at Johns Hopkins University.

What’s not widely understood, Hanson and other researchers say, is that most sex offenders are relatives or acquaintances of their victims - not strangers such as Couey. Few are on the registries.

Studies show that fewer than 3% of convicted rapists are arrested for the same crime within three years of their release, and “10% to 15% (of all sex offenders) will be recaught or rearrested” within five years, Hanson says.

Both percentages are well below recidivism rates for most other types of criminals.

If correct treatments are used, Hanson says, studies show the recidivism rate for sex offenders drops even further.

That’s why federal and state agencies need to concentrate their spending on the worst offenders, Texas’ Taylor says.

Taylor says the state must try to keep tabs on everyone on the registry, no matter how likely each is to commit another crime. That drains money from efforts to identify, treat and monitor the most hard-core offenders.

“Our thinking needs to be overhauled,” Taylor says. “And it’s really sad that it takes the homicide of an innocent child for us to take a step back and look at these things.”

Sadly, I think I called this one correctly. The result of this kind of knee-jerk, political response to the Couey case will be to burden the system even further, thereby reducing the chances that the most likely offenders will be stopped before they harm our kids.

*No link provided because I’m reading it on an ephemeral “top stories” page – a link would very soon result in a 404 error. Web searches on the obvious keywords and the author’s name should produce a hit. Yahoo ran the story with the headline “Girl’s death raises questions about tracking of sex offenders”.