Macron, France, Europe and China/Taiwan

Great Debates
1

French President Macron recently visited China and met with Xi. When he got back to France, he made a statement about Europe’s role in any disputes between China and Taiwan. Among other things he said (translated to English, not by me):

The worst thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and adapt to the American rhythm or a Chinese overreaction.

Reportage on this statement includes the phrase “third pole” in the dispute as an appropriate role for Europe. Americans and other Europeans have criticized this view as being too soft on China’s aggressive stance about the status of Taiwan.

Leaving aside Macron’s personal view for the moment, I think it could be very useful and effective for Europe (if it can unite on any one viewpoint) to act as a truly neutral third party, with some economic clout, to mitigate the tension that seems inevitable in this area. The US is not neutral, despite having given in to many of China’s demands about diplomatic status of Taiwan. China is certainly not neutral. Other parts of the world are either resisting China’s encroachments or welcoming their economic bounty with open arms. Isn’t there a useful place for an independent and non-US-centric, balancing third pole?

I frankly don’t know how this might work, and I would welcome any ideas and discussions here about that.

If it matters, I think China is completely wrong in this matter, and that the Republic of Taiwan should be accorded full diplomatic recognition by all nations and the United Nations as the government of Taiwan (and not China). So I’m not neutral either. I still think a neutral third party can be useful in at least keeping the status quo disagreement on peaceful terms.

2

You are only neutral if both the other sides agree that you are. The Chinese consider the EU to be part and parcel of the West and therefore dead-set against all things good for China. Macron’s apparent charm offensive / pleas for influence notwithstanding.

To obtain a neutral observer that China would accept as neutral we’d need to have Starfleet show up in orbit. And probably not even then. The West might be slightly more accommodating, but only becausee they’ve watched the show before.

3

I can’t help but be reminded a bit of Macron’s views on Russia and Ukraine prior to the war.

Macron’s response to Russia’s war in Ukraine (iiss.org)

French President Emmanuel Macron has long emphasised the importance of European countries strengthening their security and defence capabilities, which would enable them to pursue their strategic interests autonomously. He has also pursued a dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin with the purpose of building ‘a new architecture’ of security and trust in Europe. After Putin launched a war against Ukraine in February 2022, Macron could have led the European response to the crisis in terms of military assistance. Instead, the mismatch between some of Macron’s words and actions has weakened his standing among his European allies, and it is not clear that it has raised his standing as an interlocutor in the eyes of Putin.

4

To be fair to Macron, he was talking about building a (more) independent role for EU separately over NATO starting soon-ish and taking years to see the diplomatic first fruits and decades for the armaments and procedures & whatnot to be fully built out.

Then Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in effect asked Macron what he was going to do about that today. Armed with today’s EU security arrangements and today’s EU armaments, Macron was forced to swallow, look at his shoes, and say “not much.”

5

There already is a compromise, with Taiwan being a second-class state outside the U.N.

China wants the land of Taiwan. So the most obvious further compromise would be some land in return for acknowledging Taiwanese self-determination. One possibility is to grant the PRC full soverignty over some or all of Fuchien Province. I read years ago that people there feel neglected by the rest of Taiwan, so maybe they would vote to go in a referrendum. But that was years ago, and I don’t see how Taiwan could agree to give up a province against the will of the people. And the PRC would hardly see a referendum they might lose as much of a compromise. Both of the places in Taiwan (Cingshui Cliff and Sun Moon Lake) that are pictured inside PRC passports, signaling that government’s irredentist aspirations, are on the main island.

6

It seems that would firmly put their foot in the door.

7

In fairness to Macron, France is quite distant from Taiwan, so there’s no particular reason he would/should care too much about it. It’s not like Ukraine.

8

Dude, China has full possession of Fuchien (Fujian) Province and it was been in integral part of the PRC since at least 1949. Fujian Province is part of Mainland China excepting a handful of dippy little islands off the coast.

Not sure if it is still the case, but the Republic of China in Taiwan not only claimed all of the People’s Republic of China, but also claim(ed) Outer Mongolia, parts of India and other places bordering Mainland China as well. There is no sovereignty to give up in the case of Fujian Province.

Taiwan basically being one big island (with a few smaller islands), there is no “land for self-determination” deal to be made.

9

Indeed, were not talking about a province Taiwan has actual control over, were talking about a couple of very small islands in the province that Taiwan still de facto controls.

This is Fujian Province in red, Taiwan is the island to the southeast:

And these are the islands of the province that Taiwan controls marked in red, Taiwan itself being again the island to the southeast:

10

Hmmmm, made me curious. I believe that the Republic of China in Taiwan has not officially renounced claims to Greater China including Outer Mongolia (PRC only includes Inner Mongolia). Here’s a thread in English covering Greater China.

@Dissonance your map while accurately shows Fujian Province and the outlying islands. That said, that map also is of “Greater China.” Here’s a link that shows the “Greater China” claims and calls out what the ROC claims to be part of Mainland China including Outer Mongolia.

Here’s a map of the People’s Republic of China aka Mainland China as it is today. You will notice that Outer Mongolia is not included. And some bits like the far western bump on Xinjiang Province is part of Tajikstan, Afganistan and/or Pakistan:

Not covered by these maps are the Spratly Islands, claimed by ROC, PRC, Philippines, Viet Nam, Malaysia and partly by Brunei. This is where the PRC are building airfields on sunken reefs to bolster their claim and is a geopolitical flash point.

The Mongolian and Tibetan affairs commission was disbanded only in 2017.

(Not sure how you were able to embed the maps but that was cool.)

11

Europe has thought of itself as a third force ever since it recovered from WWII. DeGaulle in particular was a forceful proponent of such a position 60 years ago.

It never has been and, in any foreseeable future, never will be.

First, Europe is tied to western democracy. NATO, e.g., contains the U.S. and Canada. America controls western democracy, much to Europe’s chagrin. Whatever America’s faults and blunders and egomania, Europe can’t find any connection, politically and especially militarily, with Russia and China.

Second, Europe isn’t a superpower. Though the collective economic weight of the European Union rivals that of China and America, the fact remains is that Europe is a group of 40 odd countries with separate economies, governments, militaries, histories, and national outlooks. None is a true power. The U.S. has more people than Germany, the U.K., France, Italy, and Spain combined. Its GDP is larger than the top 25 countries combined.

Third, the U.K. still considers itself separate from Europe in most policies, and continues its fanciful delusion that despite all evidence it retains its own place among world powers. Take the U.K. out of the numbers above and nothing much is left.

No matter how much Europe likes to insist that its views must be considered outside of its borders, in the end it does what the U.S. says, just as it has for 75 years. If Europe had any power whatsoever, Ukraine would not be at war after a full year. That it could exert any pull over China and Taiwan is the dream that makes the 40 odd leaders smile to themselves but affects no one else.

12

Taiwan’s goverment every few years makes a statement, findable by googling, concerning recognition of Mongolia as a country. Here is the oldest one I found:

Taiwan recognizes Outer Mongolia (UPI, Nov. 1996)

The reason the Taiwan constitution doesn’t change, to take out references to the mainland, is that, no matter how worded, the PRC would blow it up as a near-declaration of independence. Leaving that language alone is the least-bad option.

In my youth, I must have read dozens – who knows, maybe hundreds – of U.S. newspaper articles, about the dippy little islands under the names of Quemoy and Matsu – with the last PRC bombardment on December 15, 1978. The fate of the dippy little islands, and their people, seemed important at one time, although I’d agree they are nowhere near enough to satisty today’s PRC wolf warriors.

13

If I recall my history, the fate of those tiny islands was a major campaign issue in the presidential election of 1960.

14

You can embed the jpeg like this; using the Greater China map link you used in this paragraph, I broke the link by adding a space after the www so you can see what it looks like when you do a normal link:

[Greater China](https://www .wine4food.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Map-of-China-Adobe-scaled.jpeg)

To embed the map in the post, strip off the [Greater China]( from the front and the ) from the end so you are left with this, again I left the link broken with a space added after the www so it doesn’t actually embed and you can see what it looks like:

https://www .wine4food.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Map-of-China-Adobe-scaled.jpeg

15

I can still hear Kennedy’s voice in my head saying “Quemoy and Matsu” in some speech. But I don’t remember that it was a major campaign issue. It might have been, I was only 11 at the time, and didn’t care.

16

Sure was.

Quemoy is now referred to as Kinmen, which plays havoc with my boyish memories.

17

France does, in fact, enforce its views outside of its borders. They are a major player in their former African colonies, in a military sense. So for this message to come from France is not surprising, they are a nation that is interested in projecting power in their own right rather than as part of the US-led NATO alliance. They have been known to get very feisty at times if they arent accorded proper respect, even withdrawing from the NATO alliance at one point.

18

France is known for stamping its foot and having tantrums, true. I don’t see how that changes anything in the real world of global politics.

He’s just been making kissy faces with China. That’s going to age as well as his previous attempts to sit at the adult table.

Abroad, too, Macron has gained a reputation for tossing political hand-grenades – intentionally or by accident, who can say? In 2019, he famously declared that Nato was experiencing “brain death”. He could hardly have been more wrong. In 2021-22, he took it upon himself to mediate, ostensibly on Europe’s behalf, with Vladimir Putin over Ukraine. Even after Putin ignored him and invaded, Macron insisted Moscow should be offered “security guarantees” and that Russia not be “humiliated”.

I admire him for taking a stand on the retirement age that will save the country’s finances no matter how unpopular it is. AKA the opposite of Brexit. If he stays inside his borders he may do good. Stepping outside just reminds everybody that he is junior varsity.

19

France is the strongest military in the EU, which it actively uses in West Africa outside of NATO. It has the second largest economy in the EU. It has never been a nation to sit and wait while stronger nations do their thing; they will be leveraging whatever advantages that they have and not waiting for a handout. It’s just how they roll.

20

France’s army still bullies former African colonies. That’s how they roll.

Well, that’s a ringing endorsement of France’s place in the world.