unvote Mahaloth
Because it seems to me that his defense vs. Biotop’s arguments is more typical of his Town self than his Scum self.
Since I have nothing better to do:
snoe: 1 (snfaulkner)
Prof. Pepperwinkle: 2 (Knowed Out, Johnny Bravo)
snfaulkner: 1 (Stranger on a Train)
Biotop: 1 (snoe)
Knowed Out: 1 (Sunny Daze)
Stranger on a Train: 1 (Mahaloth)
Mahaloth: 1 (Biotop)
:smack: …which puts ME in the lead.
My usual garbage pickup for Mario’s had a lot of people-sized trash bags. A guy with green hair that looked like grass blades told me it doesn’t exist and I don’t need to make this stop no more.
There’s still plenty of time. I’m undecided as of this moment.
I’m sticking with snfaulkner for now even though he has strategically ramped his post count sufficient to be safe unless I can get at least two people to back my position.
Stranger
Clarify this please. 6,7,8 positions? Or the bottom 6 or 8 or so players, which would exclude just you and Biotop. I could see scum posting just enough to be present, but not enough to be visible, if that makes sense.
I tend to agree with the position that on Day 1, absent other data points, we’re looking at a 20% chance of lynching scum.
I’m not clear about the logic if this. Since I haven’t played before I can’t reference past history, but it would seem like scum would want to post enough to both be above the median so as to not get taken out randomly but more importantly to stir the pot and get people accusing each other. Am I missing something?
Stranger
From what I gather from this quick guide, they’ve got some serious statistical thinking going on about how players act to try to divert others from thinking they’re scum. It’s a measure of paranoia. The veterans are trying to decipher hidden meanings, find a pattern of post count, and sweating bullets that they might be wrong.
So use lies that worked on your mother, I guess.
Pretty much. 
I don’t know how serious our statistical thinking is. Day 1, as mentioned, is a crap shoot. We’re trying to find a place in the pond to fish in, absent any other data.
Yeah, but given the participation rules, I would think that scum would want to keep their post count high because even in the beginning there is a 1:5 chance of randomly being selected, and that is just going to go up as players exit the game. I haven’t made a Markov model but I suspect that low scum participation is going to favor the townies, and the likelihood of sussing out scum from their posts in the first couple of rounds is probably low because of the lack of priors. I gather the participation rule is not standard play so I don’t know how much I’d take out of that guide, but the obvious strategy would be to call out “suspicious” behavior and get players to start suspecting one another over innocuous statements or personal tics, like “Isn’t it suspect how Stranger On A Train uses all these movie and Shakespeare quotes? Only a scum would try to avoid posting in his own words!” Once you have a couple of rounds down you can start to look at patterns, but of course that that point with ten players you’re halfway through the game.
Anyway, metatextual discussion aside, I’m here to kick ass and chew bubblegum, and I’m all out of bubblegum.
Stranger
I’m guessing next game we won’t be able to use the “but we’re just ignorant newbies who don’t know what we’re doing” line any more.
The participation rule is not standard at all, but it’s not hugely hinky. Low-volume posters tend to get lynched because, even if they’re town, their **value **to town is low. It’s better to mislynch a quiet townie than a loud one, so long as the loud townie is genuinely trying.
Sure. But remember that the behavior is not actually suspicious to the scum. Scum have to invent reasons to find players suspicious because they have perfect knowledge. As the game wears on, we’ll be able to look back at arguments that have been made against known townies and try to figure out who has been genuine and who has been disingenuous. Mafia is like 95% hindsight.
This is why it’s important, super important, to always play genuinely as a townie. It’s okay to lead the charge and mislynch somebody so long as your arguments are soundly based on the available knowledge.
It is always good to remember Scum do not have to invent reasons when they bus a teammate. Even in a small game, do not discount bussing.
For an example of a player being lynched solely for disingenuous play, check out Day 3 of the last big game on these boards.
It starts at post #509 and goes on for the rest of the day.
Idle Thoughts was on the chopping block to be modkilled for nonparticipation. He popped up and asked to be modkilled. When this was met with approval (by me :D), he turned around and said that he was going to keep playing just to piss town off. He ended up more or less getting policy lynched at that point by a very frustrated town, and of course scum was happy to follow along.
In my later analyses (and oof did I do a lot of analysis in that game) I basically had to count voting for Idle on that day as a null tell.
Idle’s tantrum was epic and apparently normal game play for him. 
Hmm, 1,158 posts for a single day. That can’t be normal, right? Like, that must have been a pretty hardcore game.
We now have less that 24 hours left in the Day.
My reads are based solely on my gut:
Prof. Pepperwinkle: eminently Town.
Knowed Out & Hi, Neighbor: newbies. I don’t vote newbies on D1 without substantial proof.
Mahaloth: leaning Town right now.
snoe: heavily leaning Town because he’s doing something like actual scumhunting.
Biotop: is always Neutral. I can never ever tell.
snfaulkner: leaning Town at the moment.
Stranger on the Train: Leaning Scum, but only for gut reasons.
Johnny Bravo: leaning Scum as well.
Sunny Daze: Neutral.
[vote]Stranger On The Train[/vote]
It was insane. Fun, but insane.
Oh, right. No vote tags.
Vote Stranger on the Train
It was utterly ludicrous and I will never again participate in a game of that magnitude.