That’s not what I said. I said you do have information from last game, therefore plenty of experience with the scum motivation to get the rank positions. You said:
as if your comment about scum wanting those slots came from the odds that you were “just thinking” about. And I doubt that’s wholly true, since you already had exposure from the last game as to what the scum motivations are. I’m not about to vote for you based on this one word “so” instead of something like “also”, but I did notice it.
I’m being sarcastic, since in the OP rules, it says:
This leads me to believe that someone posting the fact that their “Loyal” was underlined is a null tell (because anyone could say that).
Mine was underlined too. So what? Nothing Natlaw posted tells me he’s Town just because he knew to underline the word Loyal because it was already shown to be that way. : p
On the off chance they might count, unvote all. Keeping track of four votes is going to be confusing enough without starting out the day with joke ones.
Hal? Are you trying to promote your co-conspirators? If so, I’d say you were being pretty obvious about it.
I’ve always been bad at probabilities. Is it like a 31% chance of rain? What happens the other 69% of the time? Does that mean there is a 69% chance of scum lurking outside of the officers section? I’d intuitively would have thought it was closer to 99%.
There are 16 players and 4 scum. The odds of any one rank 1-16 being held by a scum player is 1/16. So the odds of one scum existing in one of the first 5 ranks is 1/16+1/16+1/16+1/16+1/16 or 5/16 or .3125.
Not that I really care since I wasn’t going to worry about it anyway, but I think the math is wrong. More or less what should be looked at is the chance of all five top ranked players being town. That’s only about 18%:
captain being town: 12 options of 16, 3/4
XO also being town. 11 options left out of 15, 11/15
Security also being town. 10 of 14, 5/7
Engineer also, 9/13
doctor also, 8/12 or 2/3
Probability of all those things being true: 3/411/155/79/132/3 = 0.18 or 18%.
By inference the probability that at least one of those things is not true (at least one officer is of the mafia) is 1-0.18=0.82 or 82%.
So it’s quite likely the top roles are already infiltrated.
The way the underline merges with the y makes Loyal much more badass then the alternatives. I’ll admit I settled for this instead of a Day One first post unprovoked claim in honor of Pleonast hosting this game as I just don’t see the advantage of it.
Anyway, glowacks and Crackrat, do to prefer to be referred to as a he or she or some spinach thing Scuba_Ben (I think) had going last time?
With a Captain who can’t decide between Kirk or Brannigan I think you’ll be sligthly safer as males .
I’m trying to see peeker as Kaylee but he’s unfortunately he’s probably more like Scotty.
(that should use up my fluff quota for the game :p)
I concur with this reasoning. Although I have not gone through and done the arithmetic to verify the exact number it sounds pretty close to what I’d expect.
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