Yawn.
Sleepy town awakes from a sleepy night following a sleepy day.
WAKE UP!
Yeah, you. Poke poke poke.
Huh.
Nanook of the North Shore doesn’t seem to want to get up.
Neither does [Undecided] Adrian.
That’s too bad, because I’m sure Today will be a MUCH more interesting Day, right?
Nanook of the North Shore, a Town Mason, is dead.
[Undecided] Adrian, a Town Mason, is also dead.
Well that sucks. Go town!
Yes, that sucks. Boo scum!
well, crap.
2 dead and both dead are masons sucks very much.
So, to get the possibilities out of the way, we still have almost infinitely many.
My unofficial player list:
Nanook of the North Shore, Town, Mason, Killed Night 2
[Undecided] Adrian, Town, Mason, KIlled Night 2
**
straggler, Cabalist, Lynched Day 1
willthekittensurvive?, Cabalist, Lynched Day 2**
Pleonast, Werewolf, Killed Night 1
Is Batman even playing? I thought he requested a sub.
Fuckity, crap.
Well this may get a bit meta gamey, but what the hey. Town, went from looking very good to taking a gut shot.
I’ve started thinking about composition. I just don’t see a scum caction that has less than three players. Otherwise they are pretty much relegated as being a little more powered PFK.
So that makes six of twenty being scum. With two masons gone I find it highly unlikely that there is more than one left.
Otherwise town has a block that is thirty five percent confirmable. I don’t know about any nuances that sach may or may have not employed. But with those odds I’d sure as hell not want to be wolf or cabal. And I give sach a wee bit more credit for balance.
Unfortunately I think peek’s right and we’ve either got one lone unconfirmable mason or there were only two to start with.
Bloody clocks went forward tonight and I forgot so it’s now 2.45 am technically and I’m falling asleep.
cos I’m consistent:
**
vote sitnam**
I’ll come back with more tomorrow but that’s all I got till I get some sleep. All I will add is that Nanook voted for him Day 1 so chances are he isn’t a mason 
I haven’t looked back at their posts yet, but Nanook wasn’t on my scumdar, while Adrian and MentalGuy had that snuggle Day One. The latter two voted Cabalist kitten both days, so I can see a vigilante go for one of them (hoping they turn up wolves). But then the vigilante chose not to kill Night One.
Adding another option to the pile: one scum group can investigate or kill at Night and found a mason Night One, though IMO a doctor block Night One is still the simplest explanation.
Running numbers based on three kills a cycle, worst case numbers (town/cabal/wolves):
D1: 14/3/3, D2: 14/1/2, D3: 12/1/2: D4: 9/1/2, D5: 6/1/2, D6: 3/1/2
That means a Day Six lose even if we lynch a Cabal or Scum then.
But with Werewolf Pleonast Night killed, either the factions can kill each other or a vigilante/redirect/tie/etc did it, so assuming one death each cycle is scum:
D1: 14/3/3, D2: 14/1/2, D3: 12/1/2: D4: 10/1/1, D5: 8/0/1
That would give us still three mislynches on Day Five, so only three members of the scum factions is probably too low.
If I take four members each (no guarantee they have same amount, just for simplicity):
D1: 12/4/4, D2: 12/2/3, D3: 10/2/3: D4: 8/2/2, D5: 6/1/2, D6: 4/1/1, D7: 2/0/1
And we got lynch or lose at Day Seven with three deaths each cycle (at least one Cabal or Wolf).
[quote=“Natlaw, post:669, topic:488592”]
I haven’t looked back at their posts yet, but Nanook wasn’t on my scumdar, while Adrian and MentalGuy had that snuggle Day One. The latter two voted Cabalist kitten both days, so I can see a vigilante go for one of them (hoping they turn up wolves). But then the vigilante chose not to kill Night One.
Adding another option to the pile: one scum group can investigate or kill at Night and found a mason Night One, though IMO a doctor block Night One is still the simplest explanation.
That would give us still three mislynches on Day Five, so only three members of the scum factions is probably too low.
<Snipped>
I edited out the numbers since, frankly, they didn’t comprehend me. Probably the fact that my brain is in full vacatiom mode at this time. So no offense,Nat.
I agree that a doc block N1 is the simplest explanation since we had two kills N2. However, it also the one that requires the greatest degree of luck. Just saying.
And although I didn’t understand your numbers if your conclusion about mis lynches is correct the you are probably right about the relative number of scum.
I’ll coffee up and see if I can parse it better later.
I follow the numbers.
The first one is worse case. A Day 6 loss if we mislynch. But it takes 2 correct lynches (or failed NKs) to buy us one additional Day.
As for the second, we’re assuming that Scum/Vig?SK might hit 1 out 3 times on another Scum. The only problem I see with this is that it’s possible that the Cabalists are eliminated early and therefore have no more Night Kill.
The third scenario seems most plausible balance wise. 4 Scum in each faction. BUt it’s still filled with possibilities. We may not have 3 kills each cycle due to double targeting or blocks. We might not have each Scum faction last as long as possible. Additionally, adding a 3rd party player or 2 brings us to lynch or lose sooner in each scenario.
So, I think these numbers are a safe guideline for us, but keep in mind, the possibilities of what might happen are nearly endless.
Crap on a stick - I was going to follow up my sitnam vote with some more reasoning but after going through all his posts again, I’ve got nothing new that hasn’t already been addressed.
My gut’s telling me he’s scum but I guess that isn’t really a good enough reason to keep a vote on him.
Grudgingly
unvote sitnam
Off to find new scum candidates!
Gah…that’s not good news.
Back to work, i guess. I’ll make another recon pass through Day 2 and see what I can see.
Ok, this is going to seem a wee bit like pot calling kettle black. But, I at least had a reason for being kind of out of touch.
oredigger
To be revisited.
Seriously, yesterDay was kind of sink slow. Now based on town’s position I can see some sense of complacency. I hope the events of last Night will change that mind set.
And just so you fellers know, I am purposely trying to make comments kind of third person. I just don’t think by phrasing any comment I make with an “us town” or “those scum” really spreads a lot of cheese on the crackers, so to speak.
But I do have a nice Merlot at hand and am willing to give chase.
Quickly, quickly. The Mod is not happy. Let us dance for his and our amusement.
Bad nursury rhymes are on the horizon without increased participation.
Gauntlet is thrown.
This is my promise. This is my gun. I say one thing so I can use the other one.
Capiche.
I think the ladies on the other side of the pond get my drift.
Was that a vote? Your posts are confusing enough as it is… now I gotta decipher your color patterns.
I’m a teapot hear me out. Here is my handle and here is my spout. Tip me over and pour me out. Blah blah blah dey de blah.
Unvote
Back in a second.
Paul I don’t get this. Do you seriously think that Cabal are something other than anti-town?
And, Hero yep it twer a vote. Please keep up.
So… that was a vote… and you retracted it without Oredigger responding or having another destination for your vote?
Yepper.
This durn thread was fucking dead yesterDay. I am going to attempt to poke the ant hill and get some movement. Ya think that’s bad? Seriously, the only folks that think that discussion is not a good thing are …
Fill in the blank on our silent time.
Sheep doodle.
In the interest of og let us remain silent and not offend anyone. Further, let us not post so that all decisions are WORSE than random. So it is spoken, so it has been said.