And now everyone decides to disappear.
Come on OK. I know you’re scum but this works to your advantage too.
Actually, no.
Because of all the analysis we’ve been doing, I decided to ask sachertorte about all the possible endgame situations that could sprout from this situation. Here’s what I found:
-A Wolf and an Assassin at the beginning of the Day will result in an Assassin win.
-A Wolf and a Townie at the beginning of the Day will result in a Wolf win.
-An Assassin and a Townie at the beginning of the Day will result in an Assassin win.
Ask him yourself if you don’t believe me.
I think you’re the last assassin. And clearly, you’re trying to win for your faction alone. No matter who dies toNight, if you’re still alive toNight (and an assassin), you win. So why would you want to lynch me? Besides the fact that Ed is more likely to switch over to me than ok11, you want your team to win alone. You’re going all-in, for the gold! You were banking on people not knowing the way ties and endgame results would be resolved. Well, mark my words, it’s not gonna work!
My vote stays.
Hang on…I mixed things up.
Assassin and Wolf yield a draw.
That changes things.
I still think you’re the last assassin, trying to lull the last townie into a false sense of security.
Here’s the state of it (my guesses, but let’s be honest here–it’s obvious):
Special Ed–Town
AH–Assassin
ok11–Wolf
pede–Survivor
Now, at this point, there is no way ed can win. I mean, unless you guys lynched me and then had such a severe lapse of judgment to go after each other. But that would be stupid.
I’ll be honest–a lot of this comes down to who I want to win. And after my fight with Bill, I’d rather see the wolves win than the assassins. So I’m not moving my vote, and I doubt ok11 will either, since the assassin is the biggest threat to her win at this point. So there.
you forget, I can still kill whoever visits me toNight.
Though I have no idea what might happen if 2 people visit me, and sachertorte won’t tell me.
I also have the advantage that if one or both of the remaining Scum decide to kill each other, in an effort to win outirght and not tie, then I kill the remaining one, and I’m left alone at the end.
Thank you for the convincing logic that I must kill you
vote pede
It’s now a tie with all of us on the block.
good luck, everyone.
It appears that this game is an implicit proof of Sach’s Law:
There is no way to design a tie-breaking mechanism that is fair to all parties in all cases.
And, at this point, it appears that we are all acting in the most logical way possible:
Pede: Wants either ok11 or AH dead. Prefers AH due to what Bill did earlier.
ok11: Wants AH dead.
AH: Wants ok11 dead, but at this point, it would be impossible to lynch her. Must align with Ed.
Ed: Can only possibly win with a pede lynch.
Crap. I outlogicked myself.
It appears we are at an impasse, one which no discussion will shift.
Sach, if all of us were to agree, would you end the day early?
I agree, end the Day early before you and AH realize your needs are best met by voting for ok11.
Obviously that lynch does me little good, and it does ok11 no good at all.
Unless your analysis is wrong and things aren’t as they seem. (and if your reply for sachertorte isn’t complete)
I could go for that, because, it would force AH to NK you, since I can kill her if she attempts on me. and then she and I go into a tiebreaker the next Day, since she cannot NK me.
sachertorte, what are the win scenarios if we are left with:
[ol]
[]a townie and an assassin at end game?[]a werewolf and an assassin at end game?[*]a townie and a werewolf at endgame?[/ol]
If AH moves her vote to ok11, I’ll follow, but I’m not moving my vote until I’m sure it won’t get me killed.
and, of course, you know full well that I can just vote with ok11 to cause a tie at that point and put us right back where we were
Does 5-5-3-6-1 make sense for Cabal-Werewolf-Assassin-Town-3rd Party?
Or does 5c-4w-4a-6t-1t make more sense?
Why am I the only non-mason Townie? My power makes more sense that way if Town couldn’t visit me. No doc, no shepherd
Could we still have 2 Townies though and it is 5c-4w-4a-7t? and 2 of you are assassins? (and if so, a mislynch and we lose)
and the special power the cabal had was they got to NK if the other Night killers were killed?
so amny questions, and to think it looks like the game is in the hands of random.org
No. The Day ends on Thursday.
[quote=“special_ed, post:1107, topic:488592”]
sachertorte, what are the win scenarios if we are left with:
[ol]
[li]a townie and an assassin at end game?[]a werewolf and an assassin at end game?[]a townie and a werewolf at endgame?[/ol][/li][/QUOTE]
- Assassins Win, Duh.
- Draw
- Wolves Win, Duh.
so there’s no tie vote for a lynch leads to a random kill in cases 1 and 3?
Ha, this is like a game of chicken.
Ed you’re definitely not the only townie, if indeed you are a townie. Though out of everyone I think you’re more likely to be one than pede or OK11.
I’m starting to think the best bet for town may well be to let the dice roll where they may.
I don’t have anything new to add to the discussion. I’ll repeat the reason for my vote, hoping to convince special ed. Based on the dead scum numbers, I think it’s extremely likely that there is at least one more Assassin out there. It’s less likely that there are 2, because presumably then they both would have claimed already, and pedescribe would have voted with them (unless pedescribe is the second Assassin, but I think that’s not very likely). Based on the dead scum numbers, there may or may not be a Werewolf. Lynching pedescribe and hoping that this Werewolf will target the Assassin doesn’t seem like the best plan to me, because it has too many assumptions. There’s no guarantee that: a Werewolf exists, can kill (we’ve only got Ichini’s word for that), is capable of killing Assassins (if we believe BillMC’s claimed kills, then the other killing party only killed Masons this entire game), and will correctly guess the identity of the Assassin. As it stands, I’m fine with letting random.org decide Today’s outcome, but I’m hoping special ed will switch his vote.
How do the numbers lead you to believe this?
If they believe pedescribe. What if you and he are the remaining assassins? See,s a reasonable plan to get one of the town (me) to vote the other one (AH)
the first one being that you’re the werewolf.
No guarantee of anything
someone is killing, call it a werewolf, callit the cookie monater, call it whatever, it’s killing
There’s no reason to think thye can’t kill assassins. Perhaps Bill just claimed to kill the bad guys because kiling masons makes him look bad, and it didn’t fit in with his claim. Who was going to counterclaim and say, no I killed that person?
oops, I meant to hit preview, hopefully you can read through my typos.
Basically, as far as I can tell, I haven’t a clue who anyone is and who is being honest.
They way I look at it:
2 Scum on the same side and a survivor
[ol]
[li]We lynch scum, the other targets survivor, I lose[/li][li]We lynch scum, the other targets me, I kill them, we win[/li][/ol]
2 Scum on different sides and a survivor
[ol]
[li]We lynch scum, the other targets me, dies, we win[/li][li]We lynch scum, the other targets survivor, we lose[/li][li]we lynch survivor, the scum target each other, we win[/li][li] we lynch survivor, Scum 1 targets Scum 2, Scum 2 targets me. Scum 1 win[/li][li] we lynch survivor, oth scum target me, I have no idea what my trap will do.[/li][/ol]
2 Scum on one side, 1 Scum alone
[ol]
[li]lynch one of the scum team, then it’s the same as as the directly above scenario[/li][li]lynch the lone scum, Scum target me, I kill him, but still lose[/li][/ol]
1 Scum, 2 Town, Survivor
[ol]
[li]lynch scum, we win[/li][li]lynch survivor, scum targets me, we win[/li][li]lynch survivor, scum targets other Town (unprotected) we lose[/li][li]lynch town, then we’re at the same as if we had teamed scum and a survivor and we lynched one[/li][/ol]
There are 5 dead Cabalists, 4 dead Werewolves, and 2 dead Assassins. We know there’s at least one scum left. My guess is that it’s an Assassin. A scum faction with only two members seems much too vulnerable to me, especially if two other scum groups had 5 members each. Even if BillMC lied about his kills, I doubt that he lied about being able to kill. (I guess anything is possible, but if the Assassins can’t kill, it’s all the more reason to think there are more than 2 of them in the game.) I think AH is the likeliest Assassin, so I’m voting for her.
As for the other comments you made about my previous post, it just feels like nitpicking. Yes, nothing is a guarantee. Yes, it’s possible I’m an Assassin or a Werewolf. Yes, someone is killing, but one of the NKs happens sporadically, while the other (for which BillMC took credit, though he could have been lying) happens regularly. I’m not saying my assumptions are better than yours, and I can see why you haven’t been persuaded to move your vote.
It’s not nitpicking. it’s just that I honestly don’t see what’s in my best interests at this time, and, bviously, I can’t trust the three of you to be honest at this point.
I like that all of you are telling me what you think is most likely. Hopefully with some time, it’ll give me insight into what you’re really thinking based on what you want me to do. Then maybe I can at least make an educated guess as to your intentions.
AH seems to want ok or pede dead.
pede seems to want AH dead first, then ok
ok wants AH dead first.
Here are my thoughts.
I seriously doubt that there’s a survivor. It just doesn’t fit with the win conditions. I know it’s possible, but I still just don’t believe it.
That makes pede scum for all intents and purposes (a SK is the same as a 1 member faction)
and, it makes me think I’m facing 3 scum, 2 of them aligned. I MUST kill one of the aligned Scum.
Yes it does. Here’s my exact specifics in the win condition:
You are not a threat to any faction.
You win when all threats to any faction are eliminated.