Mafia: Not-so-simple-Simpletown

[special_ed]

@ok11

With the new info, I think the 3 likeliest game setups are: 5C, 5W, 3A; 5C, 4W, 3A; 5C, 4W, 4A. I think it’s unlikely that the game only had 2A, even if both had powers in addition to the NK, because it seems like they’d be at too much of a disadvantage. I’m not dismissing the possibility of other combos, though. As I’ve said at the start of the Day, I think it’s important to lynch an Assassin, because they are a killing faction. They may or may not make up half of the remaining players at this point. If they do, we have to lynch one so that they don’t outnumber town Tomorrow. If they don’t, then lynching one will (in the best case scenario) end the game,

But if we have 2 Assassins, can’t they just tie up the vote?

And, even if we lynch one toDay, won’t they kill a Townie toMorrow and assure that we have a tie toMorrow?

and why did we have 2 NKs last Night?

[ok11]

I hope there’s only one Assassin left, but I think 2 remaining Assassins is also a possibility, and didn’t want to leave it out. Otherwise, I’d get smudged. I don’t know the answers to your questions, but here are my guesses.

@special_ed

But if we have 2 Assassins, can’t they just tie up the vote?

Yes, and then the lynchee would be randomly decided.

And, even if we lynch one toDay, won’t they kill a Townie toMorrow and assure that we have a tie toMorrow?

Possibly, unless you’re telling the truth and they target you. And if there’s a tie, see previous answer.

and why did we have 2 NKs last Night?

I don’t know. Cabalist(s) killed one and a Werewolf killed the other? Your explanations about Masons being joint, or MG dying with a delay are possible, but a Werewolf/SK/one-shot bonus NK for Assassins are just as likely. Incidentally, if we lynch AH, I’ll have to visit you Tonight. If you’re a Werewolf, I’m screwed.

[special_ed]

[quote=“ok11, post:1082, topic:488592”]

Possibly, unless you’re telling the truth and they target you. And if there’s a tie, see previous answer.

[quote]

Wait, even if we lynch a Townie toNight, they’ll be forced to target me toNight, and we start toMorrow with one Scum and me alive.

Wait, no, they can just not target anyone for a NK, and then lynch me toMorrow.

@ok11

I don’t know. Cabalist(s) killed one and a Werewolf killed the other? Your explanations about Masons being joint, or MG dying with a delay are possible, but a Werewolf/SK/one-shot bonus NK for Assassins are just as likely. Incidentally, if we lynch AH, I’ll have to visit you Tonight. If you’re a Werewolf, I’m screwed.

Cabalists? You mean Assassins?

If you visit me, I’ll be forced to either capture you or kill you (if you’re being honest) If I capture you, you cannot vote toMorrow.

[Trepa_Mayfield]

@ok11

I think I’ve participated at least as much as you, but I suppose my perception is biased. The past couple of weeks have been very hectic for me, because I’m getting ready to move to another state for a new job. But I’ve kept up with the game and posted my thoughts, though I haven’t had as much time to think things through, elaborate on my ideas, or check for typos. I’d love to have more time to play so that I can put together better posts with more links and analysis, but it’s just not an option for me right now.

Yeah, I’ve been quiet too. It wasn’t meant as a smudge, just an observation.

@ok11

I’m not sure what you mean by this. Can you post a link please? If you’re referring to BillMC’s accusation, then see below.

Yes, that is what I meant. And your explanation seems reasonable.

@ok11

That’s not true. BillMC accused me of dismissing the idea of 5 Werewolves, but I haven’t done that. I’ll provide links later if you’d like, but basically, he mischaracterized one of my paragraphs. It started with the idea that BillMC could be our last threat. I went on to describe a scenario where that would be the case (5 Cabalists, 4 Werewolves, 1 SK).

With the new info, I think the 3 likeliest game setups are: 5C, 5W, 3A; 5C, 4W, 3A; 5C, 4W, 4A. I think it’s unlikely that the game only had 2A, even if both had powers in addition to the NK, because it seems like they’d be at too much of a disadvantage. I’m not dismissing the possibility of other combos, though. As I’ve said at the start of the Day, I think it’s important to lynch an Assassin, because they are a killing faction. They may or may not make up half of the remaining players at this point. If they do, we have to lynch one so that they don’t outnumber town Tomorrow. If they don’t, then lynching one will (in the best case scenario) end the game, or at least get rid of their faction thereby stopping their NK.

I think AH is an Assassin. Look at the difference in her reaction to MG’s and Ichini’s role claims vs. BillMC’s. She was fine with lynching the first two, but didn’t want to lynch a known killer. Up until the deadline the vote was really close, and she almost succeeded in protecting BillMC. I also find it hard to believe that a real Doctor wouldn’t protect a Mason this close to endgame. Consequently, I doubt I’ll move my vote. I may be very busy in RL during the next few days, but I’ll do my best to check the thread regularly, and hopefully post more analysis.

I think we either have 2 Town, 1 Assassain and 1 Survivor left, or 1 Town, 1 Assassain, 1 Wolf and 1 Survivor left. Probably the second one, as it would explain the two kills last night. What this means (if I’m right) is that it’s necessary for the wolf and the assassain to vote each other, or the town will be hanging its hopes on a coin toss.

[Trepa_Mayfield]

@ok11

I don’t know. Cabalist(s) killed one and a Werewolf killed the other? Your explanations about Masons being joint, or MG dying with a delay are possible, but a Werewolf/SK/one-shot bonus NK for Assassins are just as likely. Incidentally, if we lynch AH, I’ll have to visit you Tonight. If you’re a Werewolf, I’m screwed.

Question: could you visit yourself?

[special_ed]

@pedescribe

I think we either have 2 Town, 1 Assassain and 1 Survivor left, or 1 Town, 1 Assassain, 1 Wolf and 1 Survivor left. Probably the second one, as it would explain the two kills last night. What this means (if I’m right) is that it’s necessary for the wolf and the assassain to vote each other, or the town will be hanging its hopes on a coin toss.

In order for that to happen, they’d both have to be alive toNight, and we’d have to lynch you. If you’re really the survivor.

[Trepa_Mayfield]

@special_ed

In order for that to happen, they’d both have to be alive toNight, and we’d have to lynch you. If you’re really the survivor.

…what?

[ok11]

Pedescribe, I’ll ask the Mod about visiting myself. My PM doesn’t specify.

@special_ed

Cabalists? You mean Assassins?

Oops, yes, I meant Assassin(s). I realize I’m coming across as very ditsy this game, but luckily I can blame my time crunch

[Almost_Human]

@ok11

I PMed sachertorte, and he said that an Assassin is a member of the Assassin faction. So it’s (most likely) not just BillMC, but his faction that can kill. As a result, I think we have to lynch an Assassin Today. I think AH is an Assassin. She didn’t protect the Masons last Night, meaning that she’s almost certainly lying about being a Doctor. Additionally, she tried to save BillMC from getting lynched Yesterday. In fact, if you look at her vote record, I think she’s been acting scummy throughout the game.

Vote Almost Human

I visited pedescribe last Night, and didn’t get an “unsuccessful” PM. So he’s not a Werewolf. He’s also unlikely to be an Assassin, due to the way he lobbied for a BillMC lynch. Consequently, I doubt I could be persuaded to change my vote to him Today. If the second Mason’s death was caused by a second killer, I think it’s likely that it’s special ed. It’s possible that he’s the last Werewolf, due to the “voting blind” comment. But I’m not as sure about that, because I had the impression that he’s been playing very pro town (did a lot of analysis and tried to get the conversation going).

Actually I protected MentalGuy last Night. It’s already been speculated that he died due to sitnam being killed. Remember, he survived a lynch a few Days ago and I suspect that with the remaining other mason killed he died with him. If that isn’t the case then somebody has an unstoppable kill ability which seems unlikely.

You’re not making sense again. How am I more likely to be an assasin than pede, you or Ed because I didn’t opt to kill Bill? Seems far more likely to me that an actual assassin would take yesterDay’s opportunity to buss a fellow scum when they saw no other option. I simply believed him to be who he said he was as he’d killed almost all non town players at that point.

@ok11

Hero could have been an Assassin. If there are 2 of them left, then they haven’t won already because of the tie rules. (I see on preview that you’ve considered this already).
You don’t know my role, so I can’t convince you that she voted only for town players. However, on Days 1 - 3, she voted for Masons, even after MentalGuy claimed. Being wrong doesn’t equal being scum, but that’s just another point against her.

I know he’s not a Werewolf, and I think it’s unlikely that he’s an Assassin. I doubt he’s a Cabalist, considering that there are 5 of those dead already. You’re right that he could have been busing BillMC, but I think it’s likelier that AH is an Assassin, so I’d rather lynch her Today.
No, I haven’t visited her. You and her are the only remaining players I haven’t visit, which isn’t saying much considering that there are only 4 players left.

In this scenario you’re assuming we’re going to believe your claim and decide based on that. You say you’ve visited pede so he can’t be a werewolf. Big deal - we only have your word for it.

And yes I voted for MentalGuy after he’d claimed. I’m not going to apologise for that. He claimed and not one mason came out to support him. I had absolotely zero reason to believe him at that point and stand by my reasons for voting him.

@ok11

With the new info, I think the 3 likeliest game setups are: 5C, 5W, 3A; 5C, 4W, 3A; 5C, 4W, 4A. I think it’s unlikely that the game only had 2A, even if both had powers in addition to the NK, because it seems like they’d be at too much of a disadvantage. I’m not dismissing the possibility of other combos, though. As I’ve said at the start of the Day, I think it’s important to lynch an Assassin, because they are a killing faction. They may or may not make up half of the remaining players at this point. If they do, we have to lynch one so that they don’t outnumber town Tomorrow. If they don’t, then lynching one will (in the best case scenario) end the game, or at least get rid of their faction thereby stopping their NK.

I think AH is an Assassin. Look at the difference in her reaction to MG’s and Ichini’s role claims vs. BillMC’s. She was fine with lynching the first two, but didn’t want to lynch a known killer. Up until the deadline the vote was really close, and she almost succeeded in protecting BillMC. I also find it hard to believe that a real Doctor wouldn’t protect a Mason this close to endgame. Consequently, I doubt I’ll move my vote. I may be very busy in RL during the next few days, but I’ll do my best to check the thread regularly, and hopefully post more analysis.

Hang on - MentalGuy claimed mason and nobody confirmed him. Ichini claimed cabalist, a known anti town faction and also hinted at some special power he’d get if he was the last man standing on his team. Bill claimed lone assassin and had already killed 3 anti town out of 4 kills - seemed more useful to us than not. So I was wrong but I was wrong for the right reasons. This is a pretty poor argument to assume I’m an assassin.

@ok11

I don’t know. Cabalist(s) killed one and a Werewolf killed the other? Your explanations about Masons being joint, or MG dying with a delay are possible, but a Werewolf/SK/one-shot bonus NK for Assassins are just as likely. Incidentally, if we lynch AH, I’ll have to visit you Tonight. If you’re a Werewolf, I’m screwed.

And this last just bugs the crap out of me. I don’t for one second believe you visit people every Night and it just looks like you’re setting someone else up for a lynch toMorrow though if you do manage to persuade everyone to lynch me toDay you might have already won.

The reason I say that is because I’m now convinced you’re an assassin. I said yesterDay that your role PM seemed very similar to Hero’s and now we know he was an assassin I’m even more sure you were working together. Two players making up crap about visiting people every Night but not actually doing anything much? Even if you did ‘visit’ someone who was a werewolf they’re hardly going to call you out are they? Too convenient. And you’ve been pinging me for Days anyway so:

Vote OK11

[special_ed]

@pedescribe

…what?

You said the wolf and assassin would have to vote for each other for Town to have a chance. In order for that to happen, both must be alive toNight, so we can’t lynch them.

If we do in fact, have 2 Scum of different factions, and we lynch one, then the other Scum takes out the remaining Town and you win with them.

If we don’t lynch them, there’s a chance that they’ll kill each other leaving the remaining Town alive for the win.

It seems that you’re suggesting that the best move for Town is to kill you.

[Almost_Human]

@special_ed

You said the wolf and assassin would have to vote for each other for Town to have a chance. In order for that to happen, both must be alive toNight, so we can’t lynch them.

If we do in fact, have 2 Scum of different factions, and we lynch one, then the other Scum takes out the remaining Town and you win with them.

If we don’t lynch them, there’s a chance that they’ll kill each other leaving the remaining Town alive for the win.

It seems that you’re suggesting that the best move for Town is to kill you.

That’s so weird it almost makes sense - have to ponder that one a bit.

[special_ed]

@pedescribe

…what?

and if you are a survivor and feel like Town is in the worst position, why aren’t you using your vote to the Scum? It seems in your position, you’d want to vote for whomever you feel is most likely to be Town.

Even if there are 2 Scum factions, which is going to waste a vote on you toNight. You could be the first survivor to win standing alone at the end of the Day.

You’re not coming across like a survivor.

Someone run the ramifications of voting no-lynch given our likely scnearios.

I’ve got some errands to run

[Trepa_Mayfield]

@special_ed

You said the wolf and assassin would have to vote for each other for Town to have a chance. In order for that to happen, both must be alive toNight, so we can’t lynch them.

If we do in fact, have 2 Scum of different factions, and we lynch one, then the other Scum takes out the remaining Town and you win with them.

If we don’t lynch them, there’s a chance that they’ll kill each other leaving the remaining Town alive for the win.

It seems that you’re suggesting that the best move for Town is to kill you.

No, I meant vote toDay, not kill tonight.

I mean, if the wolf and the assassian work as a team toDay, the town is gonna need a coin flip.

[special_ed]

@pedescribe

No, I meant vote toDay, not kill tonight.

I mean, if the wolf and the assassian work as a team toDay, the town is gonna need a coin flip.

OK, so if they vote for each other, then you and the Town player get the choice of who to lynch.

Then the Scum kills the Townie and you win with the Scum. I get it now.

I’d almost rather take my chances that the Scum will kill each other toNight and lynch you now though. Seems more mathematically to my advantage.

[special_ed]

@pedescribe

I mean, if the wolf and the assassian work as a team toDay, the town is gonna need a coin flip.

and if they vote as a block, you vote with them. And hope they kill each other.

At this point, you’ve stopped being in any way aligned with Town. Your only chances of winning seem to be with the Scum or on a coin flip.

[Trepa_Mayfield]

@special_ed

OK, so if they vote for each other, then you and the Town player get the choice of who to lynch.

Then the Scum kills the Townie and you win with the Scum. I get it now.

I’d almost rather take my chances that the Scum will kill each other toNight and lynch you now though. Seems more mathematically to my advantage.

So it seems to me that the best move for me, and for the wolf, and for the assassin, is for them to claim, and the three of us to work as a team today.

How about it?

[special_ed]

So, here’s he situation for me:

There are 2 vote for AH (pede and ok)
and 1 vote for ok (AH)

Now, if I vote for ok, I create a tie and put all of us in random.org to possibly die

if I vote for anyone else, AH gets lynched.

Seems like a no-brainer for me.

But still, I have a request. Can we each list our suspects in order? You know, as if we had a borda style voting? I’m just curious what our thinking is.

I’ll start:

1. pede
2. AH
3. ok

but honestly, it’s very close between all of you.

I just don’t believe there’s a survivor. I think pede might be the 3rd assassin.

I also wonder why AH’s protection failed, though she’s given a reason.

ok still makes me think he might be the last werewolf. His claim would make sense that way, and it would explain the extra death last night if he was werewolf and AH or pede was assassin.

Now that I look at it, I’m not sure why I have ok 3rd, as it seems most likely she’s the remaining werewolf if there is one.

[ok11]

@Almost_Human

You’re not making sense again. How am I more likely to be an assasin than pede, you or Ed because I didn’t opt to kill Bill? Seems far more likely to me that an actual assassin would take yesterDay’s opportunity to buss a fellow scum when they saw no other option.

It makes perfect sense to me, especially if there are only 3 Assassins. With a team that small, the Assassins wouldn’t have the luxury of sacrificing a teammate just to buy some non-Assassin credibility. If there are more than 3 Assassins, they still would have tried to prevent a BillMC lynch for as long as possible, to keep everyone else in the dark about the existence of a third scum faction. Which is why your behavior Yesterday, in addition to your lie about being a Doctor (I don’t believe that your protection failed) puts you at the top of my suspicion list.

Ichini claimed cabalist, a known anti town faction and also hinted at some special power he’d get if he was the last man standing on his team.

Ichini didn’t say she’d get a special power if she was the last person on her team. She said, “The Cabal will gain a secret power when all killing factions are eliminated.” But since you mention it, did you get an extra Night kill Tonight for being the last Assassin?
Special ed is at (a distant) second place on my list of suspects. I didn’t find any strong evidence that he’s scum, and overall, I think he’s been playing pro-town. The only reason I put him above pedescribe on my list is that I don’t have any strong evidence to make me think he can’t be an Assassin, Werewolf, or PFK. His role sounds very powerful, so I can’t rule out the possibility of him being some sort of PFK. It’s possible that he’s an Assassin, because by the time he voted Yesterday, the only thing he could have done to save BillMC was create a tie, and hope that none of his teammates got randomly lynched. It’s possible that he’s a Werewolf, but again there’s not much evidence one way or another.

For me, pedescribe is in third place, because the only way I can see him as scum is if he’s a PFK. He is willing to play anti-town (but his play is also logical if he’s the Survivor). I don’t think he’s an Assassin, because he tried to get us to lynch BillMC on Day 4, and as I’ve said above, I don’t think an Assassin would sacrifice a teammate and reveal the existence of their faction just to distance himself from the team. Distancing is good in a traditional game, but it seems to me that in a game with 3 scum factions bussing has a much bigger downside and smaller reward.

[special_ed]

@ok11

Special ed is at (a distant) second place on my list of suspects. I didn’t find any strong evidence that he’s scum, and overall, I think he’s been playing pro-town. The only reason I put him above pedescribe on my list is that I don’t have any strong evidence to make me think he can’t be an Assassin, Werewolf, or PFK. His role sounds very powerful, so I can’t rule out the possibility of him being some sort of PFK. It’s possible that he’s an Assassin, because by the time he voted Yesterday, the only thing he could have done to save BillMC was create a tie, and hope that none of his teammates got randomly lynched. It’s possible that he’s a Werewolf, but again there’s not much evidence one way or another.

My role isn’t very powerful. Before mass claiming, I have just as much chance of hitting Town as Scum. And even afterwards, my power is useless for 2 Nights after it’s been sued.

@ok11

For me, pedescribe is in third place, because the only way I can see him as scum is if he’s a PFK. He is willing to play anti-town (but his play is also logical if he’s the Survivor). I don’t think he’s an Assassin, because he tried to get us to lynch BillMC on Day 4, and as I’ve said above, I don’t think an Assassin would sacrifice a teammate and reveal the existence of their faction just to distance himself from the team. Distancing is good in a traditional game, but it seems to me that in a game with 3 scum factions bussing has a much bigger downside and smaller reward.

I agree, however, he’s admittedly anti-town right now. In fact, if he’s honest, he can win no matter who we lynch (aside from himself) and Town’s best bet is to lynch him, if in fact, he’s being honest.
ugh. I think I hurt my brain thinking through things there.

With 2 Scum left, Town needs to lynch a survivor so the remaining Scum kill each other! And, if we lynch a Scum, the other Scum takes out Town and pede wins too. There are, however, so many assumptions going into this., 2 differeing factions scum left, pede is honest, etc…

[Almost_Human]

Here are some options. First two assume pede’s telling the truth:

1 survivor
1 anti town player
1 anti town player
1 town

With 1 town there can’t be 2 assassins assuming pede’s telling the truth because if there were then presumably they’d have already won along with pede. So they must be some kind of mixture. In this scenario it would make sense for everyone to lynch pede and hope to be the one left standing toMorrow. Nobody will know who’s town and scum so there’s a fair chance scum will kill scum from another faction.

1 survivor
1 anti town player
2 town

In this scenario, again, it makes sense to lynch pede. Worst case scenario is the anti town player will take out one of the town toNight and toMorrow it’ll be down to a tie. Best case is that I protect the right one and we play 3 handed toMorrow.

Now assume pede’s lying:

1 anti town player (pede)
3 town

Lynch pede and we win

1 anti town player (pede)
1 anti town player
2 town

This works out the same as the second scenario where pede’s a survivor if both anti town players are from different factions. If they’re from the same faction then I protect myself toNight and we go 3 handed toMorrow.

3 anti town players including pede
1 town

In this scenario each player would have to be from a different faction (I think). Even if they don’t pede still needs to be eliminated for anyone to win.

Much as I’d like to vote OK11 - I still think she’s scum - I think our best bet is to lynch pede.

unvote

vote pede