Mafia Reunion Day 4

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Day off, only 6 pages to catch up on and re-read non-fluff from the Night. Woot the friggin woot

[HookerChemical]

Boozahol has been low on my radar since this:

@Normal_Phase

vote: Boozahol Squid, P.I.[color]

For these two posts.

The first one was a very slight ping along the lines of what snfaulkner and ThingFish pointed out – self-consciously grouping oneself with town. The second quote morphed from defense against the accusation (‘don’t we all present ourselves as town?’) into some kind of weird promotion of information-gathering – which he wasn’t even doing – as a pro-town tactic, and manages to drive the “look how townie I’m being” ping up several notches.

And then I guess asking about scum communication is more of the same, though I didn’t notice it negatively at the time.

I’m not thrilled with Johnny Bravo’s defense against my skepticism of his vote on me, either. ‘You’re trying too hard to find me scummy’ is not exactly a convincing read in a game where even the scum have rich hunting grounds to go after. On the other hand, the ‘ohmygodyousuck for suspecting me’ impulse is strong in some townies and could be the real reason for the vote. I’ll let that one percolate a while.

That’s Normal Phase on D1. I’ve been getting small pings from Booze, but nothing that rose to the level of my mistaken case on ToeJam or my potential case on Pleonast.

I agree with Ender that D4.48 comes off as very self-conscious. I was the target of Angel’s suspicion yesterDay/last Night as well, but my first thought wasn’t “That looks bad for me,” but rather “At least I can file her opinions under ‘known townie thoughts.’”

@Biotop

In reading through Thing Fish’s postings he is among the first to I find that **Boozahol **was suspicious for the “canoodle” question on Night 0, and in post N0 #238 throws out the “ceremonial first FOS of the game” towards Boozahol.

Does Thing Fish follow up his FOS when the real game starts? No. Instead (Day1 #141) he finds Total Lost’s suspicions of ToeJam to be the more “egregious” example of possible Scum asking questions to mods of which they already know the answer. D1#327 he likes the cases against both Colby and ToeJam, but no longer mentions Boozahol Squid. Thing Fish tangles with Pleonast for much of the time over the next two game Days while also posting cases on MHaye and** Hal Briston**. When he finally gets back to** Boozahol**, it is only in the context of analyzing Brewha voters (Day3, #263). He still gives Boozahol a slight Scum lean. In doing so he says Boozahol was “weird and overaggressive on Day 1, Townier since.”

My impression is that** Thing Fish** wanted to draw suspicion on Boozahol, without it* really *drawing suspicion-- Scum team members trying to create separation. Of course maybe Thing Fish was just throwing out cases and leans he didn’t really have any intention of following, just to see what would stick. As someone else pointed out, Scum don’t care who dies, as long as it is not their team. But in reading **Thing Fish’**s postings I get the feel everything is measured. You can almost see the ruler marks in these posts. Odd he did not follow up on Boozahol.

There are other concerns that point to Boozahol as Scum:

1. Vote on** Hawkeyeop** for making his N0 “unfair to Scum” comment on Day 1. Does he really think a Scum player would argue about whether a tactic was fair or unfair to Scum on Night 0? Poor vote.
2. Complains to Mods about how Town roles don’t have cool names, being sure to refer to “us” as Town. Seems forced, phony light talk with hidden agenda of aligning himself with Town.
3. Spends lots of time wanting to vote for the cult and then voted for Crys75 on Day 3 before deciding now Day 4 we probably shouldn’t go after the cult.
4. Worries on Day 4 about what the Angel Town flip means for him. He votes Professor Pepperwinkle and then unvotes him. This whole exchange is troublesome. I have no problem with his initial suspicion of and arguments with Angel, who plays a great Scum game. I have no problem with his suspicion of Professor Pepperwinkle because I still think he (PP) could flip Scum, but not LUTHA. But I do have a problem with Boozahol’s voting self concern over Town concern.
   5. Angel of the North’s death removes a major Boozahol accuser.
   [color=blue]vote Boozahol Squid PI[color]

This adds to the existing case and continues with the leg work I have put off. Boozahol was on my early short list of people who needed a deep delve, but never made the top of the list when I had the time. I think I’ll get around to it tomorrow, but for now, I’ll rely on my gut and the cases others have presented.

[color=blue]vote Boozahol Squid P.I.

[GuiriEnEspana]

@Nanook_of_the_North_Shore

I understand what you are asking now. That is not what I’m saying. I’m saying that the logical argument “The wolves killed Angel to make a Wolf Prof P look good” doesn’t hold water. But since you pressed me on it, I can see that can be taken even farther. Prof P probably isn’t a Wolf, since a Wolfy Prof P couldn’t know Angel wouldn’t flip Mafia, which would paint a huge target on his back. So if Prof P is scum, he’s Mafia. Which I still think is very likely.

Thanks, it was that extra step that I was taking.

Vote Diggit Camara

I still think there’s a strong case that Diggit is scum (did I really do the third wow on him yesterDay? No-one opens spoilers anymore) with Boozy a close second. I have, however, not noticed any sort of opposition to these cases - indifference maybe, but does anyone have a town lean on either of them?

@snfaulkner

Re:My bolding: I absolutely feel gutted when I vote a towny into the noose. Maybe it’s just me, but I think you should feel bad/

Meh, it’s all part of the game. Sure, lynching scum feels great but I shed no tears over dead town, maybe a meh or a bleuch out of frustration.

@Prof.Pepperwinkle

Kudos to Chronos for having placed votes on both jsgoddess and Thing Fish. No wonder he was NK’d.

DK’d, so wonder away.

@paulwhoisaghost

Lakai has openly stated that she is specifically looking for wolves.

And not just that, the subset of wolves who joined jsgoddess and Thing Fish on Pleo.

@paulwhoisaghost

Angel defended Prof P, making her likely Mafia.

I get your point but you lost me here, it would be highly unusual for scum to do what Angel did for a teammate. Scum for a townie, sure. A townie for a townie, yeah. A town, unwittingly, for scum or third party - definitely.

@Lakai

Maybe the wolves needed a town person to try and lynch and they thought Pleo was a good target?

I know it’s just one of several scenarios but “needed a town person to try to lynch” sounds so so so weird.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

@Hal_Briston

Two players really pinged me at the end-of-day yeterDay.

In Post 882, Idle flamed out, posting a screenshot which effectively proved his townliness. Once he did that, he was all-but-confirmed, and was likely going to be modkilled if he wasn’t lynched.

He did that late enough in the Day that it likely wasn’t going to save him, having a pretty good lead in the vote count. Still, better to lynch an unknown than a known-town, so I (and several others) unvoted him. However, we also had these two:

1: PlumPudding unvoted Idle in Post 889, but then revoted him a half-hour later in Post 897.

2: ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies voted for him in Post 917.

In both these cases, we had players voting for town. Did he deserve a vote before posting that screenshot? Absolutely – I didn’t beleive a word of his claim. But once he made that post, he was as close as known town as one can be without specific mod confirmation. So to PlumPudding and ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, I would love an explanation – why would you vote for town knowing that he was town? Alternately, did you have some reason to think his claim was in some way false?

Flame out from the guy that invited us all here. With screenshots, ffs. In a Mafia game that is already huge and cantankerous without trying to strategize and parse through flames and meta crap. Consider it a solitary example of my voting to put someone out of their apparent misery with prejudice in my Mafia career, and a sincere prescription for some quality time with a bacon cheeseburger once he flipped.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

@snfaulkner

Wait, what? I might be a bit preoccupied at the moment, but I’m not sure I follow this. Angel was town and defending prof, wolves killed angel in order to protect a wolfen prof? I think if prof was a wolf, they would want to keep angel alive as long as possible defending him…right?

A dead vanilla townie is arguably more trusted than a living one, short of trusted investigation results showing them to be Town while they are still alive. Immortalizing words of a Townie ‘clearing’ a Scum would be a valid strategy imho.

[Johnny_Bravo]

I mentioned it in my post about Khameleon, but it was a little buried so I’ll repeat it.

Barring some other source of data or analysis, I am going to consider voting (or advocating a vote) for Idle Thoughts to be a null tell. He had to go, and he went.

Anybody who tries to build a case on a player solely based on a vote for Idle, even after he posted his screenshot, is going to get the hinky eye from me. Not only is it a lazy accusation, but it’s a wrongheaded one.

Idle may have been town, but that doesn’t mean lynching him wasn’t the right move. It sucked, because we lost a legitimate lynch, but it was the right move.

[Sunny_Daze]

Slight OOG

I think I am finally over the flu and should be back to higher participation. Apologies for disappearing.

[HookerChemical]

@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

A dead vanilla townie is arguably more trusted than a living one, short of trusted investigation results showing them to be Town while they are still alive. Immortalizing words of a Townie ‘clearing’ a Scum would be a valid strategy imho.

Clearing somebody based on the word of a confirmed vanilla townie would be a horrible idea. Their opinion should carry a little more weight is all since we know their motivations are pure.

(FWIW, I have Prof in the town column for a similar gut feeling to Angel, but it’s my own feeling and doesn’t depend on her take. Given my track record so far this game, you should be putting more weight on Angel’s opinion.)

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

@Hal_Briston

I think that if ProfP eventually flips scum, then there will certainly be those in Idle’s voting bloc who would have had an opportunity to unvote him, but did not do so in order to save ProfP.

So yes, if ProfP flips scum, then I’d have to say PlumPudding and CTTDSWHCookies would look exceptionally suspicious, as well as any in the Idle voting bloc who posted at some point between Idle’s final post and the end of day, but did not remove their vote from a near-certain town-aligned player (haven’t looked at who that would encompass yet).

And if you already know Prof P’s alignment and he flips as Scum, you might be setting up a handy little smear bomb for a bunch of people, depending on why you’d know.

Idle was being an exceptionally unpleasant player to play with.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

@HookerChemical

Clearing somebody based on the word of a confirmed vanilla townie would be a horrible idea. Their opinion should carry a little more weight is all since we know their motivations are pure.

(FWIW, I have Prof in the town column for a similar gut feeling to Angel, but it’s my own feeling and doesn’t depend on her take. Given my track record so far this game, you should be putting more weight on Angel’s opinion.)

That’s why I put cleared in quotes. A few bits of potential townie cred, if that sounds better. I didn’t say it was a good strategy, just valid.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

@Scathach

But why wouldn’t you? {Crys investigate Sachs} Sorry if this is just something I missed people discussing before, but it seems very strange to me that you wouldn’t leap at the chance to confirm someone to yourself even admitting that you only get one confirmation per game.

Just wanted to echo this somewhat. I’m fine with you choosing to use your power as you see fit, but if you justify your choices by saying it was an opinion/request of other players in the public game thread, I’m inclined to remind you that that includes a lot of untrustworthy folk.

[GuiriEnEspana]

@Hoopy_Frood

Probably not. The mods have said ties are bad. They’ve given us no reason to believe that even with multiple lynches this fact has changed. In fact, NAF’s first vote count post essentially confirms that multiple lynches do not mitigate the problem with a tie.

If we have two lynches, I don’t see what could possibly be bad about a tie decided by random.org?

[QUOTE=storyteller0910]
[li]In the event of a tie, the moderators will consult Random.org. You probably want to avoid this if you can.[/li][/QUOTE]

@Hoopy_Frood

In an earlier post, I pointed out that each wolf that dies now as long as the Mafia have more numbers than them is a sort of mislynch in the short term from a numbers standpoint. It brings the mafia closer to their goal of winning. Granted, it also brings us closer to our goal of winning since we have to get rid of the wolves to win. But it’s better for us if the Mafia kill the wolves at this point rather than us, and better if we lynch Mafia instead of wolves.

A sort of a mislynch, really? There are still 5 wolves left, and it’s better to lynch mafia?
Happy birthday SNF, Plump, and Punxsutawney Phil Sowerby…

@Khameleon

I actually figured I would wait until Day to respond to you so it would be in the more current thread.

So no fear of being NK-ed, godfather or alpha?

@Khameleon

Okay, I will admit I did not word this very well and that I also didn’t go back and check on the roles when I posted it. So yes, I made an assumption that I was investigated by Scum who then knew I was Town and whether or not I have a significant role (which I am not going to say).

Significant? And scum would know this how?

@Koldanar

Crys75, I would certainly appreciate it if you could verify him or not toNight. We keep getting tons of noise about 3p here, and I think it’s an easy way for scum to hide their intents. Verify sach, and we can at least move on. If he isn’t, it’s an easy lynch.

Move on? Really?

@paulwhoisaghost

Both myself and total lost posted a WoW of Diggit in the D3 thread. Mine is toward the beginning of the Day, hers is during the Night.

Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk

Oh the ironing.

[GuiriEnEspana]

@Biotop

By Night 3 it seemed better not to flip because the other switch holder might be dead, so the odds seemed slightly better not to flip.

What odds? 41 out of 55 players were alive.

[paulwhoisaghost]

@LightFoot

Which is is ** Paul **?

It’s both. They aren’t exclusive. I don’t understand why several people seem to be unable to grasp the concept that there can be LUTHA AND other 3P roles at play. For LUTHA to be hostile win stealers with a kill would IMO be imbalanced and unlikely. For LUTHA to exist as a nonhostile nonexclusive 3P faction and have other 3P say a SK, would not be imbalanced and more likely. What about the two posts you quoted led you to the conclusion that I was posting two conflicting exclusive possibilities?

Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk

[paulwhoisaghost]

@GuiriEnEspana

If we have two lynches, I don’t see what could possibly be bad about a tie decided by random.org?

A sort of a mislynch, really? There are still 5 wolves left, and it’s better to lynch mafia?
Happy birthday SNF, Plump, and Punxsutawney Phil Sowerby…
So no fear of being NK-ed, godfather or alpha?
Significant? And scum would know this how?
Move on? Really?
Oh the ironing.

It’s not bad enough three of us have done WOWs, people are still asking for more info on the case or if anyone has made a wow…

Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk

[paulwhoisaghost]

@GuiriEnEspana

So no fear of being NK-ed, godfather or alpha?

This is a very interesting catch. I agree in thinking it’s fishy to not be worried about dying.

Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

@Koldanar

Too much meta for me here - I’ve been out of these games since 08? 09? So for those of us either out of practice, or new to the game / players here, that would have us leaving a lot of trust in those that dictate these things.

+1

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

@Koldanar

Also - Cookies, I think I used to play Halo 3 with you?

Yes!

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

@LightFoot

Which is is ** Paul **?

IANAPaul but we have claimed 3rd parties and conjectures and it was pretty clear from his context which he was referring to in his first post.

[storyteller0910]

I sense the presence of an oncoming

DAY 3 VOTE COUNT
As always there are no powers, hidden or open, that can affect the vote count. If you see an apparent discrepancy, it’s the result of moderator error.

Boozahol Squid PI (5 votes)
Captain Klutz (45), EnderW24 (102), Biotop (180), snfaulkner (192), Hooker Chemical (262)

Khameleon (3 votes)
Johnny Bravo (26), Hoopy Frood (52), Prof. Pepperwinkle (154)

Prof. Pepperwinkle (3 votes)
Pleonast (121), Nanook (152), bufftabby (197)

DiggitCamara (3 votes)
Paulwhoisaghost (20), Totallost (172), GuiriEnEspana (263)

Hooker Chemical (1 vote)
Lakai (46)

---

Day Three will end at 3:00PM Eastern Time on Sunday afternoon, February 5, or in slightly less than 48 hours. On account of important sporting events, the Day will end very promptly if I have any influence on it. Expect Dusk to have a distinctly football-ish color to it. Please submit any and all Day actions before this date and time.