Yep. New votes for a new lynch.
I don’t really have a dog in this fight, but your numbers look fine to me. Speaking of which… knowing the Doctor is dead, we can except two deaths in each cycle from here on out. Assuming there are four scum, and absolutely worst case scenario:
1: 12-4
2: 10-4 (we’re here)
3: 8-4
4: 6-4
5: 4-4 (Lose at dawn)
IOW, we get three mis-lynches before the game is over.
I don’t think it’s that simple. Right now, we have 10 unconfirmed townies versus 4 scum, making our chance of lynching scum at random 28.6%. Sure, if the detective found scum, he’d make that 100%, but we’d lose him tonight and we’d still have 3 more scum to find and have no way to confirm any townies (except for Masons, if they’re out there), so we’d be right back where we started. OTOH, if he found town, so if he can avoid getting lynched or killed tonight, even if he finds another townie tomorrow night, and even if we lynch a townie today, we’d effectively reduce the unconfirmed pool by another 3 and we’d have a chance of lynching scum at random of 44.4%, even without Masons claiming, and getting higher if they do (assuming they exist).
Now, this does put forth risk, but it’s risk we can’t really determine from our perspective because we don’t know who the detective is so we can’t accurately determine how much suspicion he’s under, nor do we know who he investigatedand what the results were. So, I think it is best left up to him to make a good decision about how much risk he thinks he’s under. Even still, he should make a concerted effort to bread crumb his result from last Night in a non-obvious way, such that, looking at random, we won’t know, but if he dies, knowing he was the Detective, we can figure it out.
So, to summarize… I think it’s a decision best left up to him, because he’s the only one that has enough information to really make the best judgment.
fluiddruid, I’m pretty sure modkills aren’t even an option. If a mod determines that someone is severely lurking they will be replaced, not killed. But lets say for a moment your right, I’m pretty sure your assertion that a mod kill will be good for town because it’ll be the equivalent of town getting two lynches day 1 isn’t correct. We simply don’t know enough yet and we expected a high probability that we’d lynch a townie day one, the trade off was that at least we got people talking and the information will make day 2’s lynch a far more solid pick. How will getting someone else killed with just the same scraps of intelligence be helpful? Your logic is flawed, but I don’t think your motives are anti-town.
How exactly will he say so without stepping forward? I’m trying to wrap my head around the fact that you declared your words were being misrepresented, and so to clarify you just said the same thing again.
I’ll have to look into the numbers a little more, but without a doctor to protect him I don’t think a Detective should declare anything until he’s found at least two scum or the number of non scum makes him close to likely for a night kill. Go big or go home and all that.
NETA: And as Blaster Master points out, even with a night kill we aren’t helpless.
I hate these busy weeks; kept me from the game and with discussion beginning anew, I feel like jumping right in rather than taking the time to read.
Anyway, first, I want to say damn, a townie AND a doc on night one? Can’t get much worse luck than that 
Might have to be patient and really re-read, and try to find out what the scum might have seen ** Queen [\b] say.
Though if I recall correctly, she was under some suspicion; wouldn’t it normally not make sense for scum to go ahead and off her unless they saw something in what she said?
How they found her troubles me, since it could be chance, or it could have been calculated.
Either way, thats part of what I need to look into in this re-read.
Does anyone recall just who was suspicious of ** Queen [\b] yesterday?
Even though I think that whomever was just could have been overzealous townie, it remains possible that a scum could have pointed that way then could use it as an excuse?
Trying to get my thoughts out here, so pardon me if this is a bit of a ramble; I tend to forget some of my thoughts from one Day to the next, and I am absolutely horrible at notes (thus the re-reads).
EBWOP :
Crummy typing skills, this is what I get for doing this in wordpad first.
The **'s are obviously my paltry attempts at bolding.
I had one more thought as well, regarding BlaM and Town breadcrumbing : should we have other potential town power roles breadcrumb as well, i.e. so masons can confirm, possible vig, etc (though I seriously doubt there would be more than that).
You’re right, she wasn’t hit by chance, as targetting her would have been silly if they didn’t have a good read on her. She hadn’t contributed a lot to the discussion, wasn’t really tied to anyone, was under suspicion, and is a new player. As I said earlier, she WAS giving out power-role tells and this is something that, if I can pick it up, I’m certain the scum can pick it up as well. If the scum hadn’t had a good tell, they would have been better off targetting someone else.
This post stinks of scum to me. First, you start off with what could be scummy taunting or gloating. Then you try to use her death to redirect suspicion toward those who were suspicious of her? How is being suspicious of her necessarily scummy?
Vote Koldanar
No. If we still had a Doctor, obviously, his best move is to remain as hidden as possible. Besides, any information about who he was protecting makes it easier for scum to find them. If we have masons, they don’t need to crumb to confirm eachother. As long as at least two are alive, they can confirm eachother. In fact, even if there’s only one, it’d still be, at worst, a one for one trade for scum. Keeping masons hidden is a positive because their value increases as the game goes on.
Wait, am I missing something? I’m not sure how my earlier bit was gloating. And I’m really thinking out loud here; it might be possible in a WIFOM way, but I also admit (and really think) it’s nothing at all, or a townie tell. I wanted it discussed; a small idea I thought might have some merit (but am probably wrong, huh?).
OK, I’m back. I apologize for the delay on my end, and some of these posts that I am responding to are a little old, so forgive the time warp.
I’d like to see a detailed case for why you thought QoT was a power role. I assume this will not be too much trouble, since she had that “written all over her.” I’m particularly interested in which posts of hers drew your suspicion. At the very least, this will be a learning exercise for me, since I did not get much of a read from her at all, and yours was obviously correct.
WF wanting to distract suspicion from the newbies raises some concerns.
Could it be all the scum are “newbies”?
I doubt it, since I think fluiddruid is scum,but if I am wrong about fluiddruid then the scum may all be “newbies”.
[/QUOTE]
How does **WF Tomba **saying that “at least one” scum is experienced distract suspicion from newbies in general? It’s not like he was saying ALL scum are experienced. To then speculate that based on this one statement that all scum might be newbies is an incredible reach. And it only makes the barest lick of sense if WF Tomba is scum, yet you don’t vote or even FOS him. This post is just spraying crap around, IMO.
And I see MadTheSwine is getting some scrutiny from other corners besides me, which is good. He’s my #1 scum candidate still.
I feel like this Day is slipping away without nearly enough discussion. I’m not even sure we’ve heard from everybody yet, and here we are, halfway through the Day. Is MadTheSwine really going to be our only contender for the lynch?
Like ShadowFacts mentioned, I’d also like to see your explanation of how QoT had “power role” written all over her. I do love a good edification!
Neta: that last section (in which buff begs to be edified) was directed at BlaM.
I was reading through this day again and this seems weird to me.
First we have bufftabby: “The doctor is dead? Bloody hell.”
Then MadTheSwine: “Crap.Down the Doc on Night1.”
Nanook: “Dead doctor Night 1? That sucks.”
Finally Koldanar: “Anyway, first, I want to say damn, a townie AND a doc on night one? Can’t get much worse luck than that :(”
For some reason that’s not apparent to me, Blaster Master decided that what Koldanar said was scummy with this and replied:
To me, Blaster Master is jumping on Koldanar for saying pretty much the same thing that 3 others said previously. Seems fishy to me.
First off, this is a fishy question in and of itself. Why do you want a “detailed” case? Do you really want me to go back and link to specific posts? That seems counter-productive. I already provided my analysis of her tone and why I thought it looked like a newby power role, so I think making a detailed case for it is, quite honestly, not a good use of my time. And why are you refering to me thinking she’s a power role as “suspicion”? This looks like an underhanded attempt to put suspicion on me for having a power role read on someone.
Besides, even if I didn’t have a read on her, there’s three reasonable expectations for scum behavior on Night 1: A) Target a good pro-town player to hopefully limit them strategically B) Attempt to direct town suspicion or reasoning with a targetted kill C) Target someone you have a power role read on. There’s also four reasonable explanations for why Queen specifically was targetted: 1) She was targetted completely at random 2) She was targetted as a good pro-town player 3) They killed her to either put pressure on or remove pressure from someone 4) They had a power role read on her.
Now, explanation 1 just doesn’t make sense, surely they’d have SOME sort of motivation and wouldn’t be using random.org to determine their kills. Explanation 2 doesn’t make sense either, because she’s a new player and, no offense, hadn’t put a whole lot out there to look particularly threatening. Explanation 3 is possible, but unlikely, as she hadn’t really firmly put much in the way of suspicion out there. So only the fourth explanation seems reasonable.
So, look back at the post I made earlier Today (I think it was either my first or second post) where I explained why, and tell me if you disagree with my assessment of her general behavior. Those’re several things I’ve keyed on in the past as newbie power roles, and in fact things I did when I played a power role in my first game. They may or may not always be accurate, but that’s what I keyed on nonetheless.
This said, as others have pointed out, those also aren’t the kind of tells that I’d expect someone who doesn’t have a lot of experience would pick up. I’d expect a newer player to simply target whom they deemed as the greatest threat or possibly try to direct town suspicion, but not to trust a more esoteric tell that they probably don’t have. So, while there may be other new playes amongst the scum, I would certainly expect that at least one of them has a fairly decent amount of experience playing this game.
1 - zuma (pedescribe)
1 - Koldanar (Blaster Master)
3 - MadTheSwine (fluiddruid, WF Tomba, Ice Cream Man)
2 - peekercpa (Mind Wanderer, Nanook of the North Shore)
1 - fluiddruid (MadTheSwine)
A seemingly valid point, when my reasoning is taken out of context. The fact that I used scum gloating toward one person is not reason to say that I do not necessarily suspect others for doing it. Tells are seldom a black or white issue, as in, did it look like a taunt? Scum. Did it not look like a taunt? Not scum. Instead, it is a piece of the puzzle.
In making this point, you specifically pull out ONE of my reasons for voting him, and address it as suspicious without the context of the other reasons I found him suspicious. The point is, it is something to be looked at, but it isn’t a case in and of itself, and I simply haven’t found the case against the rest that you’ve pointed out (Mad specifically, since he is the vote forerunner right now) more compelling such that I would make a case against him based on that issue.
That also said, I don’t actively throw out suspicion on everyone I find suspicious for the very same reason that I don’t actively throw out trust toward everyone I believe to be trustworthy. Having any of that sort of information out there, without good reason, makes determining my threat value to the scum much more difficult. For instance, if I only express susipicion of one person, if he’s town, I don’t look threatening, even if my number 2, 3, and 4 candidates all are scum. The point being that suspicions, in and of themselves, are of little value unless there’s a way to substantiate it. Hence, I felt I was able to substantiate my suspicion against Koldanar, so I put forth my thoughts and a vote. My suspicion, or lack thereof, on others, such as Mad, are not substantiable and are merely gut reactions at this time, so I have not put them out there.
Why is it fishy?
You’re obviously under no obligation to do as I asked, but I actually did not think it would be particularly time-consuming since, as you said, “she had newbie non-vanilla role written all over her.” I assume from that that it’s pretty obvious to you, but it’s not to me. As far as I can tell, your analysis was: “she spent a lot of time looking for advice and seemed very tenative about drawing suspicion and such.” If I missed more, I apologize, but I’m pretty sure that’s it. I was (and am) interested in hearing more about what posts of hers clued you in.
It may look that way to you, but it’s not. The reason I used the word “suspicion” is because that it’s the work you used (well, you used “suspicious” but you get my drift):
(bolding mine)
All right?
BlaM’s last two posts don’t sit right with me. Why not elaborate on the read of QoT as a power role? It seems a pretty pro-town move to me. Wouldn’t we like to keep our remaining power roles from making the same errors? Since scum picked up on it, it’s not like you’d be teaching them something they didn’t already know. The only motivation I can think of for withholding this information would be that you want the other power roles to expose themselves, and we all know what that would mean.
The bit about Koldanar gloating seems manufactured. It’s pretty standard for players to lament when things go shitty for town; what’s so different about his post? “Nothing” would be my answer. His post doesn’t ping me, no many how times I read it. I think he stated it a bit differently, giving an opportunistic scum the chance to twist his words into some sort of faux scumtell.
vote BlasterMaster
It’s fishy simply because, as I often say IRL, “It doesn’t matter WHY, only THAT…”. That is, it doesn’t matter why I had a read, I may have picked up on different things than the scum did, and even so, knowing why they picked up her doesn’t help us found out WHO picked up on her. What matters is that, whoever DID pick it up picked it up, and so we can draw useful conclusions toward figuring out how. If we figure out how, we get a peek at how the scum are operating, and a clue on how to find them.
This could be a fairly innocent question, and maybe I’m misreading the motive here, but this just doesn’t seem like a productive line of discussion. The point that I’m trying to get after is, do you or do you not agree that the scum probably targetted her because they had a read? If they did it because they read her as a power role, then we have some useful information. If they did it for some other reason besides that, we have some useful information. If we can’t tell the difference, then we don’t gain any useful information from her death. All that matters is IF they had a read on her, not how they got it.
This is fair enough, and I thought I ellaborated more on it than that. Either way, in the interest of full disclosure, I don’t take notes for this game in any way shape or form. I tried it a couple times and it simply confuses the game. I sort of keep a running idea of where I put people in my head, and I adjust that perception with each post. When I see something that sticks out, I point it out immediately so I don’t have to point it out later. And, if they get over the edge, I’ll be able to reference my earlier reasoning, and maybe do a bit of research then, but I don’t have to actually keep notes.
As such, I had a read on her, and I had an impression of her style, so the only way I could point out specific posts that gave me that impression would be to go back and reread the thread so I can read her posts in context. This is not a small undertaking and, for a point I feel is ultimately not useful in finding scum, doesn’t seem to be a good use of my time.
That said, I am happy to help find reads, but at this point, it’s as likely to help us as it is to hurt us. That is, maybe the detective is a newbie as well, and already made similar mistakes. Maybe he’s a newbie and hasn’t made them, and could be advised on how to avoid it.
I used it in a completely different context, it was clear that I was using it in the context that she may have been scum. I had a strong read on her as not being vanilla townie, so I was suspicious that she may be scum. I never had “suspicion” that she was a power role. This reads to me like post hoc justification of a smudge to me.
Here’s the point you’re missing. I’m reasonably confident that they picked up she’s a power role. But instead of discussing whether or not they picked her up as a power role, you all are questioning me on how I got that read. Do you really think figuring out how our DEAD Doctor MAY have been outted is going to help us find scum? What if I’m wrong? What if she was found at random, should I just put out a “Here’s How to Find Our Detective if He’s a New Player Handbook”?
I want to discuss whether or not we think they had a read on her, and I simply used the fact that I had a read on her as a power role as part of my justification for why they might have.
I don’t want us to get sidetracked on a fruitless discussion. And I don’t want to put out information that is, at best, neutral, and at worst, disasterous.
Wait a minute, so you’re voting for me because you don’t find something suspicious that I do? This is a OMGUS vote through and through. You’re specifically focusing on one aspect of my reasoning for why I put my vote on him, but you’re not even paying attention to the rest of it. Second, even if you do read my reasoning and disagree with it, it’s been said time and again, that a difference of opinion and strategy is NOT a scum tell. This just doesn’t make any sense at all.