Mafia: Simpletown

The Game Room
881

First of all, since I just read that the Masons claimed, all evidence to this point indicates that they’re telling the truth, so I’ll consider them confirmed until such opposing evidence comes to light. That said, I disagree slightly with the timing of the claim, but it’s a judgment call, and it’s close. I, personally, wouldn’t have thought that ShadowFacts was a Detective candidate at all, and peekercpa has drawn some suspicion, so he’d have been a good distraction to leave alive. OTOH, if either felt he may die (as ShadowFacts clearly did), knowing there’s only two, without confirmation, the other Mason becomes utterly useless. So it really is risk either way, and I don’t blame you for taking the slightly more conservative route.

That said, we now have an interesting predicament for the scum. Assuming there’s 3 of them, they can either take a 100% shot at a confirmed townie, or a 1/7 shot (or 1/6 if our lynchee today is pro-town) at trying to hit the detective. If they hit a Mason, they definitely reduce the confirmed town, but the detective gets another reading. If they take a shot at the detective and they’re wrong, not only do we get another reading, but they also reduce the unconfirmed pool which hurts them a lot. How they handle that choice Tonight will be very telling, I think.

The important part of Masons is that they’re 100% confirmable, but they’re not immediately known. This allows for several interesting scenarios that are lost if they’re known from the start. Masons are valuable, but they’re less valuable than other roles like Doctor and Detective. So, by remaining unclaimed for as long as possible, they increase the pool in which the scum must poke each Night to locate them, reducing the chance that they hit a more valuable role. They can also almost always claim to save themselves from a lynch. Thus, any near lynch of a Mason is like actually having a pro-town lynch in terms of the information gain, but without having to mis-lynch to do so. Plus, that information is immediately available on the very same Day, whereas a near lynch of another pro-town role may not reveal it’s information for Days when that player is finally killed. Finally, confirmed townies are worth more and more the later into the game they can make it. By delaying claiming, they reduce the chance they’ll specifically be targetted as a confirmed townie deliberately. And, of course, it’s just plain information that doesn’t really help us a whole lot unless we’re about to lynch them, but it is ALWAYS useful information for scum; so it’s one of the few cases where town actually has some kind of an informational advantage.

882

I’d be interested to hear how exactly my argument for Mad being scum was “bad.” I’d also be interested to know what about that argument and my argument about fluid are the same. Thanks.

883

I’ve waited as long as I can for the end of the day. I’m heading out for lunch and don’t want to risk missing the deadline if I’m caught up with work on my return. Time for an info dump.

All right, so, my hour has come. No surprise. I hoped to pass on a bit more advice to the town before I go…

I’ve nothing to claim, and I encourage everyone not to change their votes (which is my reason for holding off on this post, which I’ve been working on). In fact, I’ll request explicitly: please don’t change your votes. Last minute vote swings tend to go very poorly for Town anyway and I’m sure I’ll be dogged by scum accusations (barring an extremely unlikely Detective confirmation). My chances of a night kill are near zero considering that I’m a near-sure lynch candidate even if by some miracle I survived today. Frankly, I’m worth more dead than alive at this point. Sorry to Town - I’m just not particularly good at seeming townie, scum play seems to be something I’m better at.

So, that said, what to do going forward. For reference, here’s the list I posted earlier Today:

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9691728&postcount=789

I don’t have a new list, but I’ll add that it’s interesting that Blaster Masterweighed in not at all about the mason reveal, and bufftabby only extremely minimally (and positively). I have to say this only reinforces my belief that one (or, less likely) both of them are scum. Blaster Master has been unusually single-minded about only rebuffing me, likely to avoid accusations of lurkerdom, but has contributed precious little else today. He says he’s playing “lazy”… we’ll see. It just strikes me as wrong based on what I’ve seen. We’ll see but I hope he’s investigated at the very least. He’d be a very powerful player for the scum team as he can be very persuasive at times. Heck, if I didn’t know I was town, he’d have me nearly convinced that I’m scum. The phrases he uses – like “misrepresented” – go a long way in shaping opinion by assuming anyone who disagrees or casts aspersions on him is doing so by intentionally twisting things around.

Furthermore, when I called him out, he didn’t back down and kept posting to accuse me, even though if he’s scum he knows I’m town. Why? A few reasons. He’s smart enough to know that vote-switching away from a lynch target has its issues, even if that person is town. He wouldn’t want to look like he was shying from dirtying his hands and covering up his vote, and I doubt I’ve said much that was different in character from my prior posts to give a reason to switch. Additionally, scum players need to differentiate from one another and I’m sure that at least one would have voted for me. Blaster Master’s a risk taker; if he’s on a team with newer scum players, he’d want to be in a position where he’d be the one to take heat.

As a very experienced player, I would have expected Blaster Master (and NAF1138, after today, since he’s subbing) to take on the role of a town leader and organizer if he really wasn’t scum. Instead, he’s posted, but posted very narrowly. He claims he’s distracted by playing multiple games… fine, but it’s poor play from him nonetheless, and scum play at worst.

bufftabby continues to sit back and stay uninvolved, but did vote MTS. I’m inclined to think this is scummy behavior. bufftabby should be, at minimum, held up to speak up a heck of a lot more and get more involved. Making her a serious lynching candidate would help.

Mind Wanderer… I still think he’s a better candidate than most but I don’t have any new information to share.

As he’s gotten some suspicion lately, NAF1138… I tend to agree with his analysis of zuma and I haven’t seen him lie or mislead. He’s been pretty earnest (such as when he was accused by sitnam of defending MTS). His advice largely rings true and I agree with his most recent post. Then again he’s a masterful player and could have fooled me. I admit that Shadow Facts’ accusation that he is playing ‘carefully’ is true, but I don’t know if that’s necessarily a scum tell for NAF. He does seem a bit reserved this game. It’s really too early to say. I’ll say, though, from a meta-gaming perspective, scum players seem less likely to request subs, as I recall from the games I’ve participated in. (Playing scum is pretty fun after all.)

zuma, if not modkilled, should be considered for lynching after the above are considered, IMHO.

pedescribe… I keep waffling on this guy. He convinced me today (well, along with everyone else thinking I was an idiot) that he might be town until his vote, which I agree seemed to be distancing himself from it. In his defense, he is new and I think that it’s conceivably possible he’s feeling a bit pressured to vote for me. I still think we would learn an awful lot from his death because confirming his status would cause the MTS/pedescribe voting tallies to be a lot more valuable. He’s another candidate that I think would do well for some continued hard questions.

Some more general stuff

We’re still having participation problems from a lot of the players, and the discussion’s being dominated largely by a few. I don’t think anyone should stop posting, but I think we should continue calling out people and getting them in to post more. There is no reason that so few posts are being done except as a benefit to scum. Post, dammit!

We must not have more days like today. NAF1138 is spot on when he says that we must play for endgame in order to win. Even if you really really really think someone is scum (short of a Detective confirmation), you need to consider multiple targets. Heck, if you’re town - bring up someone you don’t even suspect. Fish! See what people answer. Give people options, not yes/no decisions. It’s the posts that are made now that will determine if we can win because it’s the posts now that people will be accountable to days from now.

Some player-specific advice:

  • Shadow Facts: I can’t really blame you as I tend to do the same thing, but you’ve fallen into the trap of being way too sure of yourself. You’ve hedged an awful lot on me turning up scum, and I’m not going to. bufftabby’s assertions to the contrary, barring some very surprising powers on your end, coming out is a Town blow. As it’s done, I don’t think discussing it much further would do anything but help out the scum team, but I’d like to admonish other power roles out there - hold your role carefully!

I hope by my death you’ll lose your single-mindedness and be willing to consider options, as I mentioned above in my general notes. A yes/no vote is extremely bad for Town. Once I show up Town, what will you have learned? Even if I had been scum, what would you have learned? You’ve strong-armed people into voting for me and not considering other options by coming out as Town, so both town and scum have every reason not to consider other candidates. As such, you’ve missed out on the most important thing the Town team needs - information. I don’t blame you for lynching me, but I do think your coming out as Mason and being confirmed by peekercpa will intimidate many townies into not speaking out in disagreement and not bringing up other options in fear that you’re right, I’m scum, and then they’re next. Heck, you pretty much told me to shut up or you wouldn’t post about other candidates (admittedly not in so many words) and stifling debate is seldom a good idea for town. Real townies are going to look to you and peekercpa for what to do. You both hold a special responsibility from this point out.

What’s happened is fairly common. I did something that made you believe I was scum (switching my vote). Since then, anything I say only serves to confirm that I’m scum in your mind, and so you’re pushing very hard to lynch me – and risking a great deal in doing so – without considering what happens if you’re wrong. It’s not bad to pursue and interrogate someone, mind you, but the problem is that you’ve risked more than you needed to. Despite your post, I don’t really understand why you chose to claim today rather than just leaving some hints about your fellow Mason in the case of a night kill, but whatever, there’s not much point debating it now.

I’m not posting you to blame you for my lynch, nor to cast aspersions on your Town status or even to make you feel bad for my premature death ( :slight_smile: ), but just to hopefully make you consider that you need to change your strategy. As much as you believe one person must be scum, there’s always benefit in weighing other options. That goes for anyone, really - push people and see if they crack. Measure up their statements. Examine their arguments. Most of all, get them on record. Not days from now, immediately when tomorrow starts. Shake up the group.

  • Detective: Don’t be lured out easily. You’re really important at this point. If you find one scum, I’d come out now (your risks of a night kill are increasing steadily) but don’t be lured by trying to confirm Town barring truly exceptional circumstances. It’s better that a townie gets lynched unfairly, we’re running (presumably) pretty short on power roles that aren’t at-risk, and the Mason claims is making the night kill pool awfully small so your days are numbered. I hope you consider some of the folks on my list for your investigation tonight after my death is revealed. If you’re experienced, you likely know all this, but I’m not sure who you are.

  • Masons: In the extremely unlikely event that Shadow Facts and peekercpa aren’t the Masons, one of you (not necessarily both) needs to come out ASAP tomorrow. Again, this is a very off chance, but just in case those players are newbies, I wanted you to know that. That would be two scum kills – there’s really no reason for anyone to fake claim Mason unless they’re scum – so easily worth the risk.

Lastly, to the scum players: nuts to ya’ll. :slight_smile: Good luck Town, I hope this info is of use to you.

884

I’ve brought up why I think they are bad every time I have talked about them. They basically boil down to “wow you sure do look scummy”. What was the argument agains Mad? What did he do that forwarded a scum agenda? He brought up the Detective, ok sure, he played the game closer to the vest than most people liked? What was the rest of the argument, there wasn’t any. The whole of the argument against Mad was “wow you sure do look scummy.”

The argument against fluid is a little better where you are concerned Shadow, but for everyone else it’s just “wow she sure does look scummy.” In my experiance, scummy looking folks are town 9 times out of 10. Scum know better than to act scummy, town usually doesn’t.

Moreover, her vote for Pede to me screams townie. Any scum who makes that vote for that reason is putting a target on thier back and they damn well know it. Is it possible that it was a calculated move that backfired? Sure. Do I think it is likely? No.

That being said, I think the vote for pedescribe is the only real point in her favor. I am less uncomfortable with this lynch than I was with the lynch of Mad, but am a tad upset that the town doesn’t seem to be doing due dilligance before lynching someone, it’s all “bandwagons away” for you guys and that makes me nervous for how we are playing as a town. Like I said in my earlier post, I don’t think this lynch will net us any information and the odds that fluid is scum are only slightly better than random. So this is a bad lynch.

If everyone who is voting for fluid wants to take the time to do some serious analysis of their vote and then post it before the Day is over, this might turn into a good lynch. Lynching is about more than catching scum, it is about placing the town in a position where a win is likely. Right now are lynches aren’t doing anything for us. The only reason the lynching of Mad gained us any information at all is because pedescribe had a real fast bandwagon started against him, so now we have a counterpoint to the Mad lynch.

So, that is why I think this lynch is bad.

I also strongly suspect (now that we know there were only 2 masons) that there were only 3 scum at the start of the game. This is based on the system that I suspect sach used to balance the game. So if fluid is scum, we are going to have a heck of a time finding the last mafia memeber without more information.

885

Actually, yes. In fact, I think the events of this Day give me a good lead on at least two scum, I intend to lay that out as soon as I finish catching up so I can ensure that my points are accurate.

886

Good post, fluid. If you do indeed turn out to be Town, I am sorry and will look at your advice carefully (assuming I survive the night, of course). If you turn up scum, well… bite me :smiley:

887

Ladies and gentlemen, THIS is the kind of post I’ve been waiting to see!

Let me be perfectly honest. I was initially suspicious of fluiddruid, but frankly, I’m pretty much a wash on her right now, but evidence seems to look pretty pro-town. So why keep pursuing her? Simple, because it FORCES everyone in the town to weigh in on the issue and either agree with the reasoning or explain why they don’t agree with the reasoning. If you’re pro-town, big deal, you weigh in on someone. If you’re scum, you have to make a choice, and that choice is affected by the alignment that you know that person is, and this is the sort of post that pretty clearly shows how I’d expect scum might act IF they knew that someone who was going down was pro-town. This post, and to a less degree NAF’s general behavior, have been indicative of scum being aware of a townie train and trying to distance themselves.

Now, this alone isn’t enough to look bad, because they could also be confused townies, right? But, we have to consider the other option, what if fluiddruid WERE scum? I can’t seem to find any posts that would be motivated by scum knowing that the leading lynch candidate is actually scum (mainly meant to save her or try to gain townie cred from her lynch), PARTICULARLY since the two main proponents of her lynch wagon (ShadowFacts and I) are people I know to be town.

What do I conclude from this? Well, I’m reasonably certain that at least one between NAF and Nanook is scum. It also means that it’s fairly likely that at least one of the early votes for fluiddruid is likely scum as well, which means WF Tomba or Mind Wanderer should also be highly scrutinized in light of fluid’s lynch result. As for a third, if he’s not amongst those four, bufftabby’s timing is fairly neutral, and I don’t have a read on RyJae or zuma (both for obvious reasons).

At this point, I consider ShadowFacts and peekercpa confirmed, and pedescribe to be much more likely to be townie than not. And, as such, I see Nanook as the scummiest in the town right now. I’m going to have to go back and look at WF Tomba’s and Mind Wanderer’s reasonings to get a better read on either of them.

888

fluiddruid, I’m curious to know what information you think I’m holding back or what I should have an opinion about that I have not had. I haven’t hedged or anything resembling that. Did I miss something along the way that’s begging for my comment? I don’t mean this in a smartypants way; I’m genuinely curious. Honestly, your big post there is making me feel a little unsure about my vote on you, but the little wifom demon in my brain says, “That’s what she wants you to think!” So I’m staying the course, I reckon.

889

Thanks for the information on the Masons. I didn’t really think about them in comparison to other power roles.

My voting for fluiddruid was based on the following:

WF Tomba’s vote switching analysis pegged fluiddruid, and while this seemed like a small point to me, it was at least something.

fluiddruid’s vote switching on Day two. There’s been a lot said about that, but I think its just another bullet point.

Fluiddruid’s Menocchio vote on Day one seems suspicious to me considering Menocchio was townie, and the manner of the post at the time ( I will have to try to figure out the page number it was made on, but I read through and I found it odd at the time).

Maybe it seems weak to some people, but there’s only one other person I’m more suspicious of, but as a pragmatic matter, voting Nanook at the time would have taken a vote away from fluiddruid and possibly pushed someone less suspicious to being the voted player at end of day. Of course, now we can see thats not the truth, but thats why I didn’t vote Nanook.

890

You’re wrong (about me, anyway). Mad pinged me on Day One, and I voted for him then, and I explained in detail why. I questioned him a little more on Day Two, and observed his interaction with fluid closely. My previous suspicions plus that conversation convinced me that he was probably scum, and I voted for him. I was not one of those people who used his Detective fishing (which I hope we can all agree it actually was now) as a reason to vote for him. My argument was not at all “wow you sure do look scummy.” In fact, yesterDay when you were saying that you did not think he was scummy, I specifically pointed you to posts of his that I found suspicious and the reasons why. IIRC, you did not respond to those (I could be wrong about that, but I don’t remember it).

Look, I’m not saying I presented some kind of airtight case against Mad (I wasn’t even in the lead on it, despite my Day One vote), and we sure as hell did get lucky to catch the Lead Assassin on Day Two, but how much of a case do you expect on Day Two? IMO, my case against Mad was about as good as it gets that early, and it turns out to have been correct. And my case against fluid, while it may be completely wrong, is also not based on nothing.

You’ve been doing a lot of criticizing of other players and not a lot of leading by example in this game, ever since you subbed in. Instead of moaning about the lack of serious analysis, I suggest you step up and provide some.

891

Wow. Just wow. So now you’re actually advocating bandwagoning someone because you think you get more feedback that way? You advocate town members keeping their votes on someone they don’t want to vote for and lynching them because somehow you’ll get more information out of that scenario? You think that the strategy that was used today is optimal? Seriously?!

Having a one candidate lynch race does the exact opposite, Blaster Master. Further, you’re distancing yourself from your vote right before the end of the day, so nothing can actually be done about it.

892

I’d prefer you did stay the course. Save the Detective an investigation, please.

It’s a vibe more than anything. You’re too clean, bufftabby. You’re playing your hand very close to the vest. It’s not so much that there’s any one issue that requires your comment, it’s that town players oughtn’t be as reserved as you are.

I’m sure someone else can go through your posts and pull out the trend - I surely do not have the time. But more than anything, I wanted to point a big finger in your direction and get you to talk. Post more. Post about strategy. Post about who you trust and who you don’t. Give insights. Give opinions. But, most of all, get on the record. There’s no pro-town reason not to.

893

I provided analysis of Ice Cream Man and zuma. It was short but to the point. You even agreed with my analysis of Ice Cream Man. I disagree with the case against fluid and have said why. Then I get asked about it because everyone is so cock sure she is scum without any real evidence and so I explain myself again. This isn’t me moaning, this is me reponding to questions people are asking me.

Calm down.

And to BlaM,

You always think I am scum, so re-check your gut. Has anything I have said been incorrect? Am I not saying more of less the same thing in the other game right now when people bring up these types of arguments. It’s the same basic thing I said in recruitment mafia too, except then no one listened to me because the bandwagon was my own.

894

I expect this response from you, but this is a strategy that I have used before but to lesser effect. One of those cases of note is my NAF vote in the recruitment game, but I was recruited before it really came to use.

I am also making a specific point of doing this NOW instead of Tomorrow, so there’s no chance of being accused of post-hoc reasoning.

I also am not claiming that this strategy is optimal, but given the MASSIVE differences in participation in the game, the options of trying to get other people to participate equally are pretty much unusable.

I am also making no attempt to distance myself from my vote on you. In fact, I fully expect to take a lot of heat for this move on my part. That’s fine by me because I’m fairly certain my reasoning is solid, and I’m also fairly certain that the detective has already investigated me, so I’m not concerned that I’ll be lynched.

What I REALLY want to know from you, before you die, is if you think my reasoning about who is suspicious (assuming for a moment that we know I’m town and you’re town) is good or if it’s flawed. Does it appear to you, or to anyone else in the town, that the scum know that she’s town or know that she’s scum? They DEFINITELY know it’s one of the other, and I sure as hell can’t find any posts that lead me to the latter.

NOW is your chance to help us gain information from your likely towniness, because you’re almost certainly getting lynched and it will either confirm your suspicions as legitimate towniness, or allow us to completely ignore it as desperate scum.

And, for the sake of the records (though, feel free to treat me as if I left my vote alone, it doesn’t matter):

Unvote fluiddruid
Vote Nanook of the North

895

Oh, that hurts.

What I meant was that she is a source of confusion. Personally, I’ve been all over the place on her position today, and judging by the posts of Blaster Master, bufftabby, and Nanook, so have they. I’m pretty sure she’s townie, but … you know what?
Unvote fluiddruid
This is going through anyway. I won’t vote for someone who I think is townie, even though I think it would be less confusing without her (which was my reason for voting for her in the first place. Thus my comment on feeling guilty. Is that kosher?). Why should I? I don’t want to defend a vote I was never convinced about in the first place!

The problem is that I haven’t researched any other candidate, and nobody’s done anything revealing today–except for peekercpa and Shadow Facts–and I don’t want to vote without a defendable reason. (note that I could have defended my vote based on purely utilitarian reasons, but that just feels so scummy! Uuuuh…)

I guess I’m just a scardey cat.

So I’ll change my vote back to
vote bufftabby
who I really think is scum, mainly because she’s had odd gaps in her posting, she seems to be really affirmative and supportive without fail, and she…just plays townie too well. Happy now?

896

My indictment of you in that post is purely situational. To be perfectly honest, my gut read on you so far is rather sporadic and relatively neutral, but the complete wishy-washiness on fluiddruid and your virtual certainty that I’m town has me concerned, because there’s the distinct possibility that it’s motivated by the actual knowledge that we’re both town.

Also, FWIW, I DO have a very scummy read on Nanook, but I was unable to substantiate it in any concrete way until I saw that post. The motivation there seems VERY heavily to favor fore-knowledge that he knows fluiddruid isn’t scum. So he either knows because he’s scum, or he knows because he’s possibly the detective.

897

This was the only downside/upside I saw to claiming. I truly believed that ShadowFacts was in line for getting whacked tonight. I certainly agree that what happens tonight is going to prove very interesting.

898

I can understand why, but that’s largely on the assumption that fluiddruid is scum. This is why I don’t blame you.

FWIW, I think you’ll both live through the Night, but obviously, that entirely depends on certain other factors.

899

By “she” do you mean me? I’ll assume so.

I’ll argue that apparently sureness is not a scum tell until the person’s dead (look at Shadow Facts about me, for example) so take this with a grain of salt, Townies. But, the only person I think qualifies is pedescribe. He seems to know I am town. But he’s pretty obvious about it. Newbies are harder to read, though - he may have acted based on the assumption that he would get flack for voting for me and wanted to soften the blow (as he’s observed the same thing happen for me and others that voted for Menocchio).

However, and perhaps it’s confirmation bias talking, I’m a little suspicious about this question. After all, you’re the direct opposite - you went after me most viciously among everyone. I don’t want to plant the seed that this means you must be town. I still think you are very likely to be scum, and as such I am very un-surprised to see you going after NAF1138. He’s exactly who makes sense to target next, if he is indeed town: experienced, analytical, and a relatively easy target to drum up charges against because he’s fallen outside the group on the matter of my lynching. To my ears, it sounds like you’re asking the question because you want me to answer “NAF1138”. But I won’t. I think he’s absolutely right that the town is using bad methodology to lynch and that today was a mistake. I have no special information about him or anyone else, but I just don’t see him as scum by what’s been said so far. See my long post for my thoughts about it.

900

unvote Blaster Master
vote fluiddruid

I don’t suspect Blaster Master any less. I simply want to be sure, we’ve had some unvotes and we only have 11 minutes to go.