Did you get a chance to use your formula on the day two votes? Basically you nailed one, backed away from one, whiffed on another, with the jury still out on another. Even if that one is wrong you still have a 33 record, which would still be pretty darn good. And I can see where on Day one where there are a lot of basically random votes and a fairly wide spread coupled with a lot of exuberance from yours truly might or might not skew the results. And now that I think about it since scum and masons are the only ones with additional knowledge it might even have more credence since those groups would have knowledge on how to try and drive the vote.
I’m not that worried about the fluiddruid lynch, even though I’m leaning toward him being town. He’s just really confusing, and there’s a reasonably high chance that he is scum, and eliminating a source of confusion is good for town. So I’ll
vote fluiddruid
though I feel a little guilty about it.
Wow talk about trying to get away with a vote without anything “attached” leaning toward town, high chance of being scum, sounds like a problem to me.
So I have a vote on record
**vote pedescribe
**
Come back when you bring some sense to that paragragh. I won’t vote for Fluid based on my previous gut feeling because in reading back I didn’t get the same initial feelings, actually she felt more like a townie then most are giving her credit for. She is putting up a valid enough defense, and it looks like we have spent an awful lot of time fingering her, for whatever reason.
Please though if I may have missed something in those that are voting for fluiddruid as in something with some substance let me. As it stands I did a pretty good job just looking over her posts today, bufftabby’s, and BlaM’s. And nothing in any of there posts screamed “scuuuuuuummy” so I am temporarily placing them three in my “head” as fellow townies.
I will go through as many more as I can before the deadline player by player until I have a better feel for the game. My vote will stand where I just placed it though for now, because that vote just looks icky to me.
Yes. The results were not enlightening; there wasn’t as much voting on Day 2 as on Day 1. I’m waiting for more data to accumulate before trying to conclude anything.
How in the world can you be not worried about the lynch while you lean for “him” (fluiddruid is a lady, BTW)being town and then have her a high probability of her being scum.
Sounds like something Dick and Bush would say. That was the most smudge/snuggle/confusing/non accountible/scummy thing I’ve seen all game.
Not to make you do something you are uncomfortable doing but …
We are getting up against it. FCS if you have anything post now and let some discussion take place (even if it’s only with the crickets and moi). If you don’t got jack then say so. I at least can muddle through your stuff as opposed to Blaster Master’s where I’d have to take a couple more semesters of study to figure it out.
And I am not ragging on Master Blaster because of his math or style. Just because it does not feel like he should not still be alive in a non recruitment game if he is not scum.
I know the other posters have run over you for this, but I tend to interpret this as “while I lean on fluiddruid being town, she’s the most likely scum candidate we’ve got”. While I don’t know if I agree with the strategy, I can’t argue much, as we haven’t heard much about any other candidates.
I’m being deliberately obtuse? What new information has changed your mind that pedescribe’s post was a coincidence? The only “new” information that I can discern as relevant is that Mad was scum, but considering that you claimed he was already scummy Yesterday and didn’t see a problem with him and pedescribe being scum together then, I don’t see how that would effect your assessment of his timing from deliberate lurking to coincidence. Other than that, all the other information relevant to whether it was or was not a coincidence occurred Yesterday when you still had your vote on him and I was arguing with you that your vote was poorly reasoned. So, please explicity point out to me precisely what changed Overnight that changed your mind?
I remain as convinced as one can be in mafia that fluid is scum, and I hope we can get confirmation on that today (i.e. that there is no last-minute switching drama like that which almost saved the Lead Assassin). Nevertheless, she brought up a good point that despite the fact that I have been driving hard to lynch her, I should not neglect other suspects. (This goes for every Townie, of course, not just me, and I’d love to see more post from others). So after a brief review, here are some of my thoughts:
I sense that NAF1138 is playing…carefully. For example, I recall his argument with Sitnam about MadTheSwine where he was very careful to say he was not defending Mad while sharply questioning Sitnam about his suspicions thereof. He’s also been a little wishy-washy about fluid, saying he thinks she is probably town, but also not strongly objecting to her lynch. Care and caution is not necessarily scummy, but I’ve noted it and I think it deserves a closer look tomorrow, particularly since my recollection of NAF in previous games is that he is more active and in a more confident way.
**
Ice Cream Man’s **lurkiness has been on my radar, but since he asked to get subbed out I’m inclined to believe it was non-game related. NAF said the following about ICM’s Day Two voting:
I agree that that is not strong enough for a vote, but it is noteworthy.
pedescribe’s recent vote for fluiddruid is pretty much a classic scum distancing tactic: “I’m going to vote for this person, but I don’t really like it, so don’t blame me!!” (That’s a hyperbolic paraphrase, obviously). Others have already noted this and voted for him. I agree that it is scummy, but I cannot see him being scum due to the whole Day Two **Mad/pedescribe **vote switch. If fluid turns up Town, however, I would definitely re-think this.
**
zuma’s **non-participation is also troubling. Whether it’s scummy lurking or not is hard to tell, but it’s definitely anti-town.
Upon review, that doesn’t seem like a whole lot, but that’s what I’ve got right now.
If I kept arguing with you, would you change your vote?
Didn’t think so.
There’s really nothing I can do to convince the Town of my innocence at this point, I’ve said all I can to conceivably answer the accusations, so at this point I think the best thing is to stop defending myself so we (or, really, all of you guys) can talk about what you all are going to do Tomorrow. Endlessly hashing over a moot point isn’t going to do us any good.
So, Blaster Master… other than me, who else is on your suspect list?
I’ll be honest, I’m lazy. Even moreso since I’m currently playing in two games, so I’m playing a lot more from memory. If needed, which I haven’t felt it has for the most part, I’m willing to go back and quote relevant bits but, as I said earlier, I try to point out anything I think is relevant AS I see it, so I can just reference it later.
This is a misrepresentation. I voted for you Yesterday. Sure, there were a few people who expressed some suspicion of you before hand, but I substantiated it and put my vote there. Is it scummy to NOT be the FIRST person to find someone scummy? IF so, you have a handful of scummy people voting for you. Either way, I’ve done my best to explain why I think your behavior is scum motivated.
There could be any number of reasons, and I addressed this earlier as well. Could be they’re hoping people will think this and I’ll draw suspicion of it (a la sturmhauke in M2). Could be they’re using my experience as cover for another experienced scum (a la Gadarene in Pirates). Maybe I’m completely wrong in my suspicions and they like letting me lead the town wrong. Or maybe I’m right, and they don’t want to validate what I’ve said. Maybe they’ve decided I’m probably not a power role and they’ve prioritized finding the Detective and/or Masons above killing me. Either way, this question is PURELY speculative.
It might be relevant if I made a specific role claim, but I have not either confirmed or denied any particular role. The closest I’ve come was my response to Mad’s claim Yesterday which, I imagine, they may have interpretted to mean I wasn’t the detective.
Yes, I love math, and I did plenty of it earlier. Either way, it’s not always relevant or useful. If it makes you feel better, I can add some that is completely unnecessary instead of only mostly unnecessary.
THIS is potentially a valid point, but it’s an assessment of current play style with which I happen to disagree. I don’t believe I’ve used circular arguments or changed my tactics.
As for not showing signs of doubt, well, when have I ever? Besides, that’s just an artifact of me being a guy.
This is pretty much what I said above. For what facts we do have available, I’ve already crunched the numbers, and for the rest, it’s not always useful. Besides, I’ve always maintained that mathematical posts are generally a null tell, because they’re very hard to use as scum to demonstrate something that is false, and townies are just as likely to make mathematical errors as scum.
This I find interesting. I tend to play aggressively, especially in this and the recruitment games, less so other games, like Conspiracy or the concurrent Batman game (the latter mostly due to subbing in and being behind). But I’ve tended to ascribe a more cautious style to your play. In fact, the very fact that we’re bonking heads like this is part of what is pinging me.
This, I think, I addressed fairly well uppost and upthread. Either way, I can only guess as to why.
Good point about me, I should probably address it. I feel like I am playing in a different game than you guys are. It might be because I wasn’t around for the opening Day and a half, but for whatever reason, I don’t really feel like we are playing from the same book, so my usual agressive style isn’t going to get me anything here. (Believe it or not, I always play very carefully, it’s just that usualyl that means being more antagonistic than this game requires) Things like the argument agains Mad simply wouldn’t fly in the games I am used to playing in. Turns out you were right about Mad, but it doesn’t really matter, it was still a bad argument. I feel like the same argument is being made about fluid, and that makes me nervous because I think we got lucky with Mad.
That being said, I don’t want to say it’s impossible for them to be scum (because clearly Mad was) but I do want to point out that I think the current scum hunting method is badly flawed. Unfortunatly I don’t have any better ideas at the moment. I really thought that if I went back and looked at the last two lynches something good would come up, but there just isn’t enough “there” there yet.
I do think that the current bandwagon against fluid will probably net us zero information even if she turns up scum, it started too early and with too much force for it to be anything other than inevitable. That’s why I don’t like it. Not because she might not be scum, but because we aren’t playing toward the endgame, but rather playing for the end of the Day. This is a good way to lose the game. But hey, if she turns up scum that will at least buy us some time, so it isn’t all bad.
