Mafia: Simpletown

[MindWanderer]

Let me do some very basic analysis on this. It makes sense that if Masons claim and there are two, than the number of confirmed townies increases by two. If there are some players who are more or less considered semi-confirmed, or leaning town by the evidence, then removing two people from the list improves the odds even more.

But even in the worst case. First of all, assume we started with 12 town, 4 scum, and have lost 3 town and 1 scum leaving us with 9 town and 3 scum.

So within that group of 12, 3 scum have to hide, however, if two players become confirmed townie, then the pool becomes, 10, which means there are less places to hide. If we have two players that are widely considered to be semi-confirmed, then the reduction goes from 10 possible scum to 8. Its obvious that, before looking at the negatives of the masons being killed off, that there is an advantage to this.

Other people have said that the main advantage of being masons is being able to confirm each other. But once that confirmation takes place and they become targets for night kills, there is no reason to worry that much about losing a mason role, since their purpose has already been fulfilled.

So I think ShadowFacts’ move actually improves our situation without actually hurting, unless the following means something:

@ShadowFacts

I have two other reasons, but revealing them would negate their value, so I won’t list them here

If ShadowFacts has other reasons, does that mean that masons have other powers in this game? Maybe I’m misreading the masons, but looking at it right now, i don’t get why masons don’t automatically vouch for eachother almost at the start of any game, except on the basis of not wanting to personally be night killed. I would be interested in hearing from BlasterMaster or anyone else why that isn’t so.

[peekercpa]

Yes, we have other powers. I could choose to make Master Blaster’s math comprehensible to the commoner if I chose to do so - I don’t.

Actually I was thinking along the same lines of my brother when the day started. Our only value is in being able to confirm each other. With 12 left and assuming at least 3 more scum we have eliminated 17 percent of the possible scum pool. So we are on the block for night kills, who cares. If scum decide to take out Shadow Facts and then me the detective gets two more reads knowing that we already got the godfather then this one is going to come right down to the wire (and probably in our favor. Even after losing the MD on night one).

I totally understand why we played our hand the way we did. And if it don’t work then you know who gets my first vote next game - unless you all decide that I don’t get to plau any more.

[peekercpa]

@MindWanderer

Let me do some very basic analysis on this. It makes sense that if Masons claim and there are two, than the number of confirmed townies increases by two. If there are some players who are more or less considered semi-confirmed, or leaning town by the evidence, then removing two people from the list improves the odds even more.

But even in the worst case. First of all, assume we started with 12 town, 4 scum, and have lost 3 town and 1 scum leaving us with 9 town and 3 scum.

So within that group of 12, 3 scum have to hide, however, if two players become confirmed townie, then the pool becomes, 10, which means there are less places to hide. If we have two players that are widely considered to be semi-confirmed, then the reduction goes from 10 possible scum to 8. Its obvious that, before looking at the negatives of the masons being killed off, that there is an advantage to this.

Other people have said that the main advantage of being masons is being able to confirm each other. But once that confirmation takes place and they become targets for night kills, there is no reason to worry that much about losing a mason role, since their purpose has already been fulfilled.

So I think ShadowFacts’ move actually improves our situation without actually hurting, unless the following means something:

If ShadowFacts has other reasons, does that mean that masons have other powers in this game? Maybe I’m misreading the masons, but looking at it right now, i don’t get why masons don’t automatically vouch for eachother almost at the start of any game, except on the basis of not wanting to personally be night killed. I would be interested in hearing from BlasterMaster or anyone else why that isn’t so.

Since we were only two I was beginning to feel like our value would be negligible once one of us got whacked - either lynch or night kill. Unfortunately’ Shadow Facts was a little too perceptive. I really think he was next in line for a night kill.

Now the rest of the town have two less souls to worry about and can focus on the remainders.

And to boot I/We still have some insight yet to come.

[peekercpa]

If someone doesn’t make the required number of posts, is that a modkill or a replacement at this point?

[ShadowFacts]

@peekercpa

Yes, we have other powers. I could choose to make Master Blaster’s math comprehensible to the commoner if I chose to do so - I don’t.

Just to be clear, for the sarcasm-impaired, we don’t really have any other powers. My unstated reasons for claiming are just logical inferences that are better left unstated, not additional powers.

[sachertorte]

@peekercpa

If someone doesn’t make the required number of posts, is that a modkill or a replacement at this point?

Today is the last day for replacement; Tomorrow will result in removals.

[ShadowFacts]

@fluiddruid

For the sake of argument… what do you hope to gain here? Sure, you’ve confirmed each other. To what end? To show that the lynch attempt on me was started by a townie? I myself indicated that I thought it was the case, and that you were the closest that we have to a confirmed town player. Nobody’s disputed it. So what now? You’re Town, great. So what? What’s the next step from here? Why bother to claim when neither of you are in real jeopardy?

I stated my reasons clearly when I claimed, and none of them had anything to do with bolstering my case against you, which as you say is unnecessary. And I also stated why I thought I was “in jeopardy” from a night kill. Did you read my claim post at all? Time will tell if it was the right move or not, but don’t pretend I gave no explanation for my actions.

@fluiddruid

Furthermore, you’re driving the lynch against me hard. Fine. What happens if/when I turn up Town? You’ve raised no other possible suspects Today. In fact we have barely discussed anyone but me and MTS today. So that will leave you with absolutely nothing tomorrow, even if I’m scum – because you’ve given everyone an easy vote, and the remaining people will be a bunch of one-off votes and hard to track. Again, bad for Town.

I said it before, I’ll say it again - lynch me if you like, but at the very least we need to get something out of it. As of right now I don’t think that’s the case because it’s basically turned into a “lynch Fluiddruid, yea/nay” referendum and it’s going to be way too easy for scum to hide when there’s no real debate.

I admit that if you turn up Town, then my claiming toDay was probably not necessary. But it’s a risk I weighed and I don’t think that’s going to happen. And it’s not like I have an obligation to raise other suspects - you’re the most likely scum, IMO, so I’m going after you. Other players who don’t think you are most scummy, like NAF for example, can make a case against someone else. I will happily participate in those discussions, but don’t try to make it seem like I’m falling down on the job because I don’t start an entirely new case against someone else.

[bufftabby]

I guess I understand now why revealing (for Masons) is not a bad thing. I mean, it’s not like the scum didn’t already know you were town. At least my towndar’s not broken; I was pretty sure about you two anyway.

[fluiddruid]

@ShadowFacts

I admit that if you turn up Town, then my claiming toDay was probably not necessary. But it’s a risk I weighed and I don’t think that’s going to happen.

Not much I can say to this, frankly, other than the fact that I still think you were foolish to exposure yourself even if I am scum, considering there’s pretty much no chance in hell I’m not getting lynched. It’s been a bandwagon from the start, though admittedly a town-inspired one.

And it’s not like I have an obligation to raise other suspects - you’re the most likely scum, IMO, so I’m going after you. Other players who don’t think you are most scummy, like NAF for example, can make a case against someone else. I will happily participate in those discussions, but don’t try to make it seem like I’m falling down on the job because I don’t start an entirely new case against someone else.

But if you’re Town, and something helps the Town, you should do it, not wait for someone else to do it. If you think it’s not beneficial to the Town to have more than one suspect - which I have argued is wrong - then fine, but don’t cop out and say “other people can raise other suspects, my work is done”. That’s bullshit.

You’re putting way too many eggs in the I’m-scum basket and really seem to not consider what will happen, and what you will do, if you’re not correct.

I know you won’t listen to me, and what’s done is done after all. But, tomorrow, I hope you’ll look back and consider what I’ve said.

[ShadowFacts]

@fluiddruid

Not much I can say to this, frankly, other than the fact that I still think you were foolish to exposure yourself even if I am scum, considering there’s pretty much no chance in hell I’m not getting lynched. It’s been a bandwagon from the start, though admittedly a town-inspired one.

Again, my claiming had nothing to do with bolstering the case for your lynch. Why do you keep suggesting it did?

@fluiddruid

But if you’re Town, and something helps the Town, you should do it, not wait for someone else to do it. If you think it’s not beneficial to the Town to have more than one suspect - which I have argued is wrong - then fine, but don’t cop out and say “other people can raise other suspects, my work is done”. That’s bullshit.

You’re right about this (except the “my work is done” part, which I didn’t say). If I can stop spending time responding to you, I will try to put some additional thoughts out there.

[NAF1138]

Bah, looking at the bandwagons vs Mad and pede yesterDay is leading me in circles.

I noticed that Ice Cream Man voted for Pede based entirely on analysis work that other people did. He had also voted for Mad earlier in the Day and then unvoted. I suspect that Mad was one of the few experianced scum and that he was giving new scum instructions on what to do in order to confuse the town the Night before. (Mass confuion is sort of a Mad trademark.) ICM was also the third vote on Pede and the only vote on Pede from someone that is from someone who didn’t have a real reason. But I don’t know that that is strong enough for a vote. Best I got, sorry. I really thoght careful analysis of the voting patterns would yield better results than it did.

I am going to

vote zuma

becuause he hasn’t been playing, and that strikes me as zuma trying to keep the scum from losing because of him.

[fluiddruid]

[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]

You’re right about this (except the “my work is done” part, which I didn’t say). If I can stop spending time responding to you, I will try to put some additional thoughts out there.

Very well.

[Nanook_of_the_North_Shore]

I can see the logic behind the mason claim, but I’m not sure that it was a good idea still. But if you were sure that you were going to be night killed, then it was definately the right thing to do with only 2. At least I can believe this role claim without too much stress

WF Tomba has withdrawn his suspicion of me based on the magic formula, so I will follow through on my statement and

Unvote WF Tomba

I will point out that said formula has now broken down even further. Of the 4 he definately stated were scum based on it, one has been mostly confirmed as a mason, and another has had that suspicion removed due to error. I think we can safely state that it doesn’t have a ton of use, at least insofar as Day 1 goes.

My next two points are somewhat connected to the theory. First, the fluid train that seems unstoppable at this point. I can see and buy a lot of the arguments that were made now, since I just did a fairly hefty reread. However, I am not going to place my vote there. This is mostly because it seems like something of a waste, simply joining a bandwagon that isn’t stopping regardless of what I do, with a small smattering of not wanting to get shit and waste town time on why I switched my vote at the last minute once again. I feel my time would be much better spent on setting up some discussion for Tomorrow. Obviously, information gained from Today’s lynch and Tonight’s kill can and probably will change things, but might as well start somewhere.

There are two people I want to mention at this time. One is zuma. He is so erratic and oftentimes anti-town, even when town, that I would be willing to lynch him right now. However, barring something drastic, he’s going to be replaced so a revote of him is not worth it. The other person is Mindwanderer. fluid outlined a case against him earlier. Yes yes, she’s probably scum so we can’t read too much into her case. But that doesn’t mean we can’t use the things she provided for us. In this case, those things are a post summary. She points out that he mostly just parrots what others have said. Nowhere is this more obvious than when he stated that he wanted to vote for me. He started by voting for fluid, mostly because of Tomba’s formula. Then he moved onto me with a few, to my mind, weak attacks. I challenged him on those and he never responded. Since he’s been participating since then, it makes me think he has no response and is trying to ignore it with the hopes people won’t notice. That seems scummy to me. So, with the plan of getting this out there for Tomorrow and barring something crazy again, such as another role claim, I am going to

Vote Mindwanderer

[MindWanderer]

@Nanook of the North Shore

But that doesn’t mean we can’t use the things she provided for us. In this case, those things are a post summary. She points out that he mostly just parrots what others have said. Nowhere is this more obvious than when he stated that he wanted to vote for me. He started by voting for fluid, mostly because of Tomba’s formula. Then he moved onto me with a few, to my mind, weak attacks.

Your argument was bogus. I was the first to have any FOS on you Today. I voted for fluiddruid instead because I ALSO had suspicions in that direction. If you think its competely clean to force a tie on behalf of the Lead Assassin than your scumdar is off or your trying to manipulate the argument.

I had fos on you all Day, and I’m likely to vote for you tommorrow, which is not the bandwagon position at all, so everyone can stop with the bs parrotting stuff. I didn’t have a lot of divergences in opinions from people on Day 1 when there wasn’t much to discuss, but I have presented a non-parroting argument against peekercpa, that almost no one followed me on on Day 2. The fact that I think its unlikely that peekercpa is scum now is irrelevant, that argument at least wasn’t common or popular.

I’m not one to make a lot of random accusations or post a lot when I don’t see there to be any relevant topics to discuss. Now that we are on Day three I have been posting more because there’s more information now.

I don’t think your defense of your voting on Day 2 was strong at all, obviously you’d disagree. But the kind of accusations being made against me are weird.

[sachertorte]

Ice Cream Man has asked to be replaced.

Please welcome Ryjae as Ice Cream Man’s replacement.

[sachertorte]

1. Blaster Master
2. bufftabby
3. IceCreamMan RyJae
4. zuma
5. pedescribe
6. WF Tomba
7. Koldanar NAF1138
8. MindWanderer
9. [del]Queen of Town[/del] Doctor
10. [del]MadTheSwine[/del] Lead Assassin
11. Nanook of the North Shore
12. ShadowFacts
13. [del]Menocchio[/del] Simpleton
14. peekercpa
15. [del]Sitnam[/del] Simpleton
16. fluiddruid

Menocchio, Simpleton, lynched Day One
Queen of Town, Doctor, killed Night One
MadTheSwine, Lead Assassin, lynched Day Two
Sitnam, Simpleton, killed Night Two

[RyJae]

Catching up here, please be kind. Since reading everything as an interesting read spectator standpoint I once thought fluid was erm, acting scummy. I’ll need to read through again and find out what made me think that before voting on anyone. If I cannot find it and/or it doesn’t raise to vote levels after reread, I will vote for the person who may not be acting the scummiest, but isn’t acting much at all.

[bufftabby]

Spectating is a scumtell! Burn the witch!

Hi. Nice to meet you.

[Ice_Cream_Man]

Sorry guys, I recently became too busy to continue.

It was fun.

[peekercpa]

@RyJae

Catching up here, please be kind. Since reading everything as an interesting read spectator standpoint I once thought fluid was erm, acting scummy. I’ll need to read through again and find out what made me think that before voting on anyone. If I cannot find it and/or it doesn’t raise to vote levels after reread, I will vote for the person who may not be acting the scummiest, but isn’t acting much at all.

(Bolding mine)

Then I’d be kind of suspicious of that Ice Cream Man feller.

Welcome aboard.