Mafia: Simpletown

The Game Room
961

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Also, let’s do some quick number crunching. Right now there are 10 people left, of which 2 are confirmed townies, so that leaves our theoretical role distribution looking something like this:

2 Masons
1 Detective
3 Assassins
4 Simpletons

This means, if we lynch at random, we have a 3/8 chance of nailing scum, but it also means the scum have a 1/5 chance of nailing the Detective by pure chance. I think it’s a reasonable time to evaluate the Detective’s options.

To simplify the cases, I’ll treat a reading on someone who is already dead or on one of our Masons as failed (although, a reading on the Masons that indicates they’re lying is an unlikely possibility, but almost certainly worth revealing immediately). So, you could have anywhere from 0 to 3 readings:

0 Readings: If this is where you are, you’re just damned unlucky. And though we wouldn’t necessarily be able to believe you, you could pretty much be treated as confirmed because once everyone knows all the valuable roles, the scum will start killing confirmed, and you’re more dangerous than the Masons. However, since they’d kill you anyway, this is no different than remaining unclaimed and getting hit my chance, except we’d know not to look for crumbs. IMO, if this is the case, it’s not worth claiming.

1 Reading: This would effectively give us either 4 confirmed, or 3 confirmed and 1 scum. For the first possibility, that would give us a 1/2 chance of lynching scum, an okay turn out for the Detective. For the latter situation, we lynch the scum, you die Tonight, and we’re down to 2 Masons, 4 townies, and 2 scum Tomorrow. IMO, this is a borderline case, and I’d say it depends on who you are and who your reading is of.

2 Readings: There’s three possibilities here. If they’re both town, that puts us at 5 confirmed townies and 3 scum hiding amongst 5 people. With still one more wrong lynch, even at random, that’s pretty decent odds. If one is town, and one is scum, we lynch the scum, you die Tonight and we’ve got 3 confirmed, 3 townies, and 2 scum Tomorrow, pretty decent odds again. If they’re both scum, after two Days we’ll be down to 1 confirmed, 4 townies, 1 scum. However you look at it, that puts this in our favor, and IMO, this is a definite claim scenario.

3 Readings: I won’t bother to lay it out, since it’s even better than the last, but it’ll pretty much make the rest of the game a walk in the park. You absolutely should claim in this scenario.
Also, on a somewhat related note, we are are two wrong lynches from losing, so we really need to maximize the information from Yesterdays lynch (and I think there’s a lot in there).
[/QUOTE]

Oh holy creepin’ jesus. This makes total sense - I finally understand a Blaster Master math approach. He is right, I think, and as such I have to

Unvote Master Blaster

962

[QUOTE=bufftabby]
It’s not a snuggle in the sense of me saying she must be town, but more in the sense that, at that point, I didn’t see that as scummy. Oh, and I’m gonna feel free to snuggle with or without your approval. I can snuggle without fixing someone in my mind as a confirmed Townie, obviously.
[/QUOTE]

Yes, but the fact that you snuggle to begin with is inherently suspicious, you do realize that right?
If you’re a townie - why are you snuggling people? What motivates you to try to act scummy? To me, it’s just the same as BlaM’s above justifications of “I drove a lynch against someone, determined she’s not Scum, and then just hopped off the bandwagon so I could catch the scum.”

Both are TERRIBLY Risky things to do and really don’t make sense…
Yours is a bit more of the defensive Scummy action, while I view BLaM’s actions as offensively scummy. WHY do you snuggle, Buff? As it just seems to create patterns of trust and such that really have no basis in validity, and it’s something that if you truly were trying to help the Town, you shouldn’t engage in. The fact that in response to me you didn’t try to explain it away or realize that it’s scummy is troubling- Your response is pretty much a “Tough beans, I do what i wants” sorta thing.

Which… well, I’d expect that sort of explanation from a Newer scum. Someone like Blam or NaF wouldn’t take that route- if they were scummy they’d try to avoid that sorta heat- but the fact that you’re defending your right to BE Scummy…
Does not compute.
My FOS on you stands. I don’t like your behavior- it’s scummy, and yet you choose not to try change it. I don’t understand the pro-town motivations of acting scummy. I like solid analysis and reasoning for votes- you tend to flitter about with your votes and reasoning, switching or hesitating throughout the Day- that worries me greatly. Most uncool, Bufft

963

[QUOTE=peekercpa]
Oh holy creepin’ jesus. This makes total sense - I finally understand a Blaster Master math approach. He is right, I think, and as such I have to

Unvote Master Blaster
[/QUOTE]

**WHAT? **
Wha-
REALLY?
What the crap is going on here???

964

[QUOTE=RoOsh]
**WHAT? **
Wha-
REALLY?
What the crap is going on here???
[/QUOTE]

He provided some analysis that I actually understood and that seems to be pro town. Now does that mean that he’s not scum - nope. I just think that there may be other opportunities. Capice?

965

/oog Shadow- sorry to hear about your cat. :frowning: Take your time and do what you need to do. Take care, dude. /oog

On peekercpa:

Okay, I see what you were saying now in your last post. As you quoted BlaM’s reasoning of the situation (and NOT his justifications for FluidDruid). Fine. I get that, I reacted a bit quickly- as i thought you just read BlaM’s reasonings for his actions yesterDay and felt it was completely sound- that thought just shocked me.
Sorry about the quick firing off of the previous post- But I still don’t like Blam’s justifications for his actions vs. Fluiddruid.

Just as I said **Buffty **was being defensively scummy, you BlaM… are really toeing the line between Scum and really clever but vicious Townie.
Especially since as you posted toDay- you’re well aware of the fact that we could be 2 mislynches away from a loss…
So WHY yesterday did you allow the voting against Fluiddruid? You effectively nailed her to the cross before making your decision “oh, Fluid’s probably townie” and then walked away. Even if one of those 3 you mentioned are scum (which I totally agree that a “duh” moment), remember IS more scum out there than just 1.
And your actions totally fit the bill of someone trying to build up townie cred there.
You basically took a townie, attacked her until she was pretty much accepting of her lynch- realized THEN at that convenient moment that she’s scummy- and walked away. But of course then Fluid’s easy pickings for your scum buddies- they’d just have to point to your case vs. her, and then you can build up YOUR townie cred by being suspicious of those people!

To me, this seems like a really tricky shell game.

You pointed out MW, Buffy, and Nanook as suspects. And then you picked Nanook.
So now, here’s the thing. I think you’re quite suspicious yourself, and I’ve already been suspicious of Buffty coming into this… So why should I believe you vs. Nanook?

Can you expound on your case vs. Nanny our buddy from the Northwest- other than Ah-HA! He fell into my clever trap?
Because I really am having a hard time accepting that you- who pointed out toDay “Oh, we can only have 2 more mislynches!” was in the same mindset yesterday, when you basically ALLOWED a mislynch to occur. :dubious:

966

And hey ** RoOsh** I still have a feeling in the pit of my stomach that Blaster Master is scum ala Story in M (whatever number).

The fact that you find any credence in what I say also makes me suspicious of you. :slight_smile:

967

[QUOTE=peekercpa]

The fact that you find any credence in what I say also makes me suspicious of you. :slight_smile:
[/QUOTE]

Where did i find credence in what you said? I just said, oh, I misread what you quoted. But thanks for the suspicion- at least it’s on an ACTIVE player.

968

[QUOTE=RoOsh]
Where did i find credence in what you said? I just said, oh, I misread what you quoted. But thanks for the suspicion- at least it’s on an ACTIVE player.
[/QUOTE]

Hey, you acknowledged my prescence by quoting me upthread. The fact that you even wasted the time to read one of my posts makes me suspicious as hell. :slight_smile:

969

And now…finally…my search for evidence against BuffTabby. (well, I find it exciting). This is day one only.

–#128
Suprised by the speed of the game start. Doesn’t like no lynch, doesn’t like random voting. Decides to wait for 48 hours.

–#136
Pure fluff post. (about blackberries and mod confusion)

–#141
Another fluff post.

–#145
Another fluff post.

–#150
Another fluff post.

–#157
Lightheartedly annoyed at being accused of hiding. (She explained it in 128)

–#160
Another fluff post.

–#203
Hasn’t seen anything, decides to randomly vote Menocchio (the eventual lynchee) because they “stir up discussion”.

–#297
Agrees with Shadow Facts (a confirmed mason) that she will be sceptical of role claims if it is the person’s only saving grace. Expects false role claims.

–#342
Tries to sum up BlaM’s comment about motivation, uses the example of the night one night-kill in Mafia: recruitng. Also tries to explain null tells.

–#359
Argues against W F Tomba’s voting for her. She says that he said that he voted for her because she was “slightly lurky”. She admitted to be, because she was watiting to find something that was actually suspicious.

–#362
Argues aginst Menocchio (a townie) voting for her. She says that he said that she was against random votes, even though she provides previous evedince that she did say that.Finds Menocchio scummy, keeps her vote on him.

–#378
Responds to Menocchio’s post defending his vote on her. She says that she doesn’t understand his accusations, and that she doesn’t have “general strategy chatter”, because “it’s only my second game”, and she’d rather wait for things to develop.

–#381
Disappointed that Menocchio won’t respond to her response to him. Not sure she can participate much the rest of the Day.

–#391
Agrees heartily with BlaM that she shouldn’t generalize too much. Very strongly worded.

And that’s it for day one. There are huge gaps between content. She has only one post between 203 and 342. But she said as much. Note that four out of her ten content posts were her defending herself and her vote (something that’s to be expected), and three posts that were essentially reposting someone else’s post (although one is paraphrased). Also, she is very lighthearted in this game. It definitely looks like she’s looking toward more experienced players for help.

970

[QUOTE=peekercpa]
The fact that you even wasted the time to read one of my posts makes me suspicious as hell.
[/QUOTE]

Fair enough.

Question: Is there an easy way to search for people’s posts in this thread? Right now I’m just clicking on their names and “searching ALL” their posts. Which is a PAIN in the arse right now, as I have to skip all the extra posts they make in other threads.
Is there a better way to just read this thread’s posts? And just posts BY a person in this thread?

971

Ok. Fuck the screw. I had originally approached toDay with a Blaster Master - WF Tomba approach. Some of Blaster Master’s posts seem to be guiding him. Much like on day one when I was acting the fool and Shadow Facts asked me a lollipop, I replied lamely and then he said he got it. Even I could see that we were working together (thanks by the way). When I saw Blaster Master post something along the lines of being piqued by WF Tomba’s math analysis of day 1 voting I thought gotcha(ain’t no way Calculus is going to devolve into Algebra). Then WF Tomba turns up dead. Oh fuck, I could be wrong about the connection. But now that I think it through Blaster Master keeps coming up. And he is savvy enough to make this kind of play.

FCS:

Vote Master Blaster

Two votes in one day. Hell, if you were Al Gore you’d be the fucking president.

972

I don’t see how any “evidence” found by either RoOsh or pedescribe points to me being scummy. I’m either dense, or it aint there.

I’m building a nifty little case against a couple of players. Once I finish gathering some scummy evidence, I’ll go ahead and lay out my brilliant observations. Stay tuned…

973

[QUOTE=bufftabby]
I don’t see how any “evidence” found by either RoOsh or pedescribe points to me being scummy. I’m either dense, or it aint there.

[/QUOTE]

My issue with you is that you are not being helpful with your “I like being scummy attitude”.

Let me break it down:

  1. Snuggling is an anti-Town behavior.

  2. You like to snuggle a lot.

  3. I point out that you shouldn’t snuggle. Stop Snuggling. Etc. See above post on it.

  4. You basically reply- I will do what I wants. Ie: Indicative that you don’t find snuggling to be anti-town.

  5. Me= :smack:

So again, I ask you the Question:
Why is snuggling NOT a problem for you? Why do you do it?

974

[QUOTE=bufftabby]
<snipped/bleached>

You’ll have to pardon me, but I don’t see how you went from point A to point B here. The snipped part of your post, to me can be summed up as: “I helped drive the suspicion against fluiddruid, here’s why that townie and not scum”. Then you say that gives a “fair amount of reasoning” to vote for Nanook, MindWanderer, and I. Wherte the hell is the connection here??? Hell, there is probably at least one scum on that list, but I am not seeing this “reasoning” you speak of.
[/QUOTE]

Please re-read the post from Yesterday in which I laided it out near the end of the Day. But to summarize, I found the behavior of you three consistent with scum motivated to take advantage of someone they know to be town, and not consistent with someone they knew to be fellow scum. Nanook’s post in particular was handwaving at the fluiddruid wagon and a deliberate attempt to vote elsewhere.

975

RoOshBecause if I agree with something, I don’t mind saying so. Not to mention that I don’t see how I’ve been detrimentally snuggly. I’m not publishing any “here’s who’s clearly town” lists.

BlaM, your reasons at least make more sense than the others that have been given. I’m with you on NNS seeming pretty scummy. I’ve got some other posts as evidence as well. I’m coming to that momentarily…

976

I kind of like being snuggled by a vagina.

YMMV

977

[QUOTE=RoOsh]
Just as I said **Buffty **was being defensively scummy, you BlaM… are really toeing the line between Scum and really clever but vicious Townie.
[/QUOTE]

Wow, RoOsh, you smudge me several times in the last few posts. Maybe you should switch to Windex. :rolleyes:

This is a misrepresentation of my actions and of my explanation of my actions. Probably about 80% of the time my vote was on her, I found her the scummiest out there, for the next 10% I was wavering, and the last 10% I was reasonably sure she was town, but had no other suspects, and so I pushed it trying to gauge the reactions based upon how I expected scum to react.

If I’m reasonably sure the person I’m voting for isn’t scum, but I don’t really have a better suspect, my options are to unvote without any good reason becasue my read, or to try to leverage the situation to get a good read on other people. Unfortunately, it took longer for me to find a post that seemed to demonstrate what I was looking for than I’d hoped it would, so I ended up leaving my vote on fluiddruid longer than I wanted to.

[/quote]

Here’s the deal, and here’s why I made sure to post it Yesterday so it wouldn’t be post hoc reasoning. There were two possibilities yesterday, that fluiddruid was pro-town, or that she was scum. Scum would know which one she was, so this knowledge, along with their motivations based upon that knowledge would be prevalent. I couldn’t find any examples of scum motivation to try to save her or gain townie cred from lynching her, so that only left the option that she was townie and they were trying to distribute their votes well. Then I saw the post by Nanook that I quoted in my reasoning from yesterday. PLEASE go back and read that and tell me if you don’t see a motivation there to lightly weigh in on the fluiddruid wagon, while still managing to come up with some flimsy reasoning for a vote elsewhere. This, to me, screamed a distancing vote, and it meant that Nanook probably knew the alignment of fluiddruid, which means he’s either the detective or he’s scum. However, if he were a Detective, he may have also tried to disuade the votes on her, instead, Nanook waited 'til the end of the Day and only weighed in lightly. This is much more consistent with a motivation to distance rather than a motivation of saving the innocent.
And while you mention the mislynch, it was pretty much a done deal before I concluded that fluiddruid wasn’t scum. Even when I had, I didn’t have a sufficient case against anyone else until I saw Nanook’s post, so even if I had unvoted the moment I wasn’t convinced… then what?

978

[QUOTE=peekercpa]
Ok. Fuck the screw. I had originally approached toDay with a Blaster Master - WF Tomba approach. Some of Blaster Master’s posts seem to be guiding him. Much like on day one when I was acting the fool and Shadow Facts asked me a lollipop, I replied lamely and then he said he got it. Even I could see that we were working together (thanks by the way). When I saw Blaster Master post something along the lines of being piqued by WF Tomba’s math analysis of day 1 voting I thought gotcha(ain’t no way Calculus is going to devolve into Algebra). Then WF Tomba turns up dead. Oh fuck, I could be wrong about the connection. But now that I think it through Blaster Master keeps coming up. And he is savvy enough to make this kind of play.

FCS:

Vote Master Blaster
[/quote]

I’m sorry, I really don’t get the connection between him and me at all. I have been providing some guidance to him, but I’ve been trying to do that for several of the new players. I don’t see how me guiding a new player then him showing up dead on the third Night makes me look scummy.

If I were Al Gore, I’d shoot myself in the fucking head. :stuck_out_tongue:

979

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]

If I were Al Gore, I’d shoot myself in the fucking head. :stuck_out_tongue:
[/QUOTE]

I still think you are scum but my goodness this made me snort my Chardonnay through my nose. Thank you so much.

980

And I think this gets double bonus points for making someone laugh so hard that they also get an answer to brewha’s urine thread.