Wow, today was so nice. Sorry for the late start. Not that you guys are all that talkative over the weekend anyway.
WF Tomba, a Simpleton, is dead.
- Blaster Master
- bufftabby
- IceCreamMan Ryjae
- zuma RoOsh
- pedescribe
- [del]WF Tomba[/del] Simpleton
- Koldanar NAF1138
- MindWanderer
- [del]Queen of Town[/del] Doctor
- [del]MadTheSwine[/del] Lead Assassin
- Nanook of the North Shore
- ShadowFacts
- [del]Menocchio[/del] Simpleton
- peekercpa
- [del]Sitnam[/del] Simpleton
- [del]fluiddruid[/del] Simpleton
Menocchio, Simpleton, lynched Day One
Queen of Town, Doctor, killed Night One
MadTheSwine, Lead Assassin, lynched Day Two
Sitnam, Simpleton, killed Night Two
fluiddruid, Simpleton, lynched Day Three
WF Tomba, Simpleton, killed Night Three
Oh the fuck no. We’ve got a RoOsh. If we have an autocyclys show up then holy crap ass.
Well this one is easy.
Vote Blaster Master
Ain’t no way you are still alive unless you are scum.
Can you help me out here as to why? I went over BlaMs posts yesterday and other than really complicated things he didn’t “feel” scummy. I may have missed something though. Can you guide me to what makes you vote for him?
On another note I only joined this game for the night time pee talk, and bufftabby let me down. 
Okay back to serious stuff, I think I’ll look into who jumped onto the fluid wagon, because from my limited experience, the tagalongs are usually the ones to watch.
If there is a detective, let’s rock and roll. With two masons, yourself and your investigations we should be damm close to a shut out.
Oops sorry for not removing the color 
Bad me!
Actually, why don’t we just leave it up to him/her to decide when is best to come out of hiding. For all we know, s/he investigated 3 people who are already dead/known.
And let me take this opportunity to apologize to everyone for completely screwing the pooch on fluid, and probably claiming too early as a result. That said, I’m going to continue to play aggressively and call out what I think is scummy. I think I’m going to start with some vote analyses since we now have 3 days of data, but they will have to wait until tomorrow, as it is late and I need to go to bed.
First things first, you guys NEED to keep track of votes!
Color Coding is your Friend!
Day 1 Final Result : Mennocchio is Townie
2 - bufftabby (WF Tomba, Menocchio)
1 - WF Tomba (pedescribe)
1 - Queen of Town (peekercpa)
2 - MadTheSwine (Sitnam, ShadowFacts)
1 - ShadowFacts (MadTheSwine)
5 - Menocchio (fluiddruid, bufftabby, zuma, Blaster Master, Nanook of the North Shore)
2 - peekercpa (NAF (ie: Koldie), Mind Wanderer)
1 - fluiddruid (Queen of Town)
1 - No Lynch (Ryjae/IceCreamMan (who tried to vote at precisely 4pm) )
Day 2: Final Result: MAD was the LEAD ASSASSIN
1 - Blaster Master (peekercpa)
5 - pedescribe (NAF1138, Ryjae (ICM), fluiddruid, MadTheSwine, Nanook of the North Shore)
5 - MadTheSwine (WF Tomba, Sitnam, ShadowFacts, bufftabby, pedescribe)
2 - fluiddruid (Blaster Master, Mind Wanderer)
Day 3 Final Vote: Fluiddruid is Townie
1 - bufftabby (pedescribe)
1 - zuma (NAF1138)
2 - pedescribe (RyJae, peekercpa)
1 - Mind Wanderer (Nanook of the North Shore)
1 - Nanook of the North Shore (Blaster Master)
5 - fluiddruid (ShadowFacts, Mind Wanderer, WF Tomba, bufftabby, fluiddruid)
My thoughts:
I've got a few issues with the way things are going down, I'll try to be succinct:
1. The Zuma Voters- What the CRAP guys? He's not been here for TWO WEEKS, he's posted jack and squat. Yet over the course of the last TWO days there have been people voting for him at various times. (Peeker and NAF and pedescribe) -You've all voted for Zuma at various "official" vote counts during Day 2 (pede, I'm looking at you) and Day 3 (Naf/Peeker). To me, that looks REALLY suspicious because it's **Zuma**- he's hadn't posted in forever and he's going to get replaced basically, so why keep your votes on him? That just seems like a tactic to appear active, but w/o really having a vote of consequence.
**Pede**- In the Day 2 post counts, you kept your vote on Zuma for most of the time, until the end when you were nearly lynched and switched to MadTheSwine for self preservation. I can understand the Self-preservation bit, and the fact that MtS ended up being scum is a point in your favor. But what were you suspicious of Zuma for? Not posting at ALL?
There wasn't anyone really scummier TALKING than the non-posting zuma?
-Same issues with **NAF and Peeker**. Why did you keep your votes on an inactive player for so long? What about him so much more suspicious than the REST of the TALKING players? Am I going to have to deal with the **Zuma**-fall back for his inactivity? Because those votes just seem really odd to me. So I'd like to know what about **Zuma **was weirding you out with his silence?
2. **BLaM**. What the crap were you doing Day 3? You right now are the most suspicious player to me because that whole starting the movement vs. Fluid then leaving the whole vote thing at the end- REALLY shady to me. Especially since when I tend to look at final vote counts- your name doesn't show up next to **fluid**, HOWEVER i have to keep in mind you played a HUGE part in putting her up against the wall. I will give you a FOS BLaM and I wanna hear from you, dude- as you're... definitely playing odd to me.
3. Post 901: **Pedescape**: This was a REALLY weird and odd post. I'll quote it:
[quote]
I'm going to ask that in a seperate post, since I'm really curious. Is it okay to vote for someone you think is town for utilitarian purposes? Is it frowned upon? How heavily?
[/quote]
Just something that stood out to me. Especially in light of BlaM's actions. **Blam**- you wanna answer the man's questions? I'd be curious to know your opinion this game on the matter. :dubious: (God I love that face, it's up there with O_o for me)
4. **Masons**- Standard question- I know this is a simple mafia game and all, but I always have to ask this Q: Are you aware of each others win conditions. Ie: Can you trust each other?
5. **Ryjae **and **Bufftabby**- *BAD! BAD! BAD BAD BAD!
*
Ryjae: your post 867:
[quote]
As it stands I did a pretty good job just looking over her posts today, bufftabby's, and BlaM's. And nothing in any of there posts screamed "scuuuuuuummy" so I am temporarily placing them three in my "head" as fellow townies.
[/quote]
NO! NO! Never do that sorta crap! This is utter garbage! This is horrible townsplaying at best, and really scummy snuggling (thanks for that term btw Blam)
at worst. the whole "temporarily placing them as fellow townies" crap? That's just awful to me-
1. If you don't know their roles explicitly- don't trust them.
2. Don't go around create lists of "possible townies" and "non-townies" that just mucks up the waters with this snuggly crap. If you find someone suspicious- fine. But explain why you find them suspicious. But never EVER fall into a mindset of where you "think" someone is townie just from the feelings of their posts. I know you're a newer player, so I'm not going to be as harsh right away, but this is something that's been done to GREAT use by **Storyteller **in M2, and well... by Me in the blade runner games. Just because someone gives "off" a townie vibe- that means jack if you don't know their roles! And it's just going around creating snuggling partners for people to manipulate. If you're a townie- you shouldn't do this crap in the future- it's just setting yourself up for problems for Us and you as its easily manipulatable.
**Bufftabby**- You snuggle TOO DAMN MUCH as well. WAY TOO Snuggly!
You remind me of **Dotchan**. And that's not a good thing. You get the same spiel as Ryjae, but also you get more frustration from me because of your Day 2/3 actions.
Let's go back over a few posts:
Posts: 848 -Snuggles the Masons.
Post 615: A wishyWashy vote choosing Mad over Fluid, and really a snuggle vs. Fluid. (Just reading the vote explaination makes me seasick the way it goes back and forth between the two). Especially after your comments of understanding MtS in 496. Which is interesting after you just FOS MTS in 450 when he votes for Fluiddruid, who you admit to snuggling in Post 445.
That whole Day 2 and 3, with your interactions between MTS and FD, were just annoying as hell because it was so dotchanny! You defend fluid right off the bat of Day 2 pretty much, then when Mad finds her suspicious, you call out Mad, but then you rescind it, and say you undersatnd where he's coming from, and that you understand where they're both coming from. Then towards the end, you go into a fluiddruid reassuring mode, and end up voting for Mad in an extremely wishy-washy vote where you "understand" Mad's POV, but you also understand FD's points as well. All just back and forth, back and forth. Most uncool.
Especially then because on Day 3, you end up VOTING FOR THE PERSON YOU DEFENDED ALL OF DAY 2! Fluid Druid! What the Crap?
What happened between Day 2 and 3 that made you change your stance on Fluiddruid so much? As on Day 2, you seemed VERY snuggly with her, before you drop down the sword on Day 3. You madam get my 2nd FOS BUFFTy for your behavior. I would like to hear from you as well on your thoughts of voting for Fluid from Day 2 to Day 3.
These are just a few of the first thoughts I've been saving up from my notes on reading thru the last few days back to back to back.
~RAll I have to say to this is absolutely horrific logic. I won’t bother to explain why since I have already… several times. :rolleyes:
Okay, allow me to divulge my approach to the game, power roles aside for the moment. As I’ve stated before, this is a game of numerical advantage versus informational advantage. However, even for scum who have nearly perfect information at this point as far as the role distributions and such go, there is other information that they specifically do not have, such as any unspoken suspicions or trusts and such. Further, we know that they know certain bits of information that we do not, so by generating situations that force them to make judgments based upon that knowledge, or lack thereof, we can then compare those actions to expected actions based upon the various possibilities. This is the secondary strategy that I employed yesterday which is only effective so long as my suspicion appears sincere.
Now, that said, my initial suspicion of fluiddruid WAS sincere for most of my pursuit of her. My strategy in that sense was to build a case and see how she reacted. I could then gauge her reaction against how I’d expect either scum, vanilla, or powerrole to behave given the sort of case, and near the end she showed signs of townie motivation that was distinctly different from scum motivation.
So here is where came my secondary strategy. The Day was already late, and the case against fluiddruid was already fairly substantial with a fair amount of momentum. I also knew that the case against her was the primary focus of the Day in such a way that everyone had to weigh in on it, and this is a case where fore-knowledge can come to the surface. I was unable to find anything that matched my expected behaviors for if she was scum, so I surmised, in conjunction with my motivational analysis, that she was most likely townie, and that the scum were motivated to use that to their advantage.
As such, I was effectively forced to continue my pursuit of fluiddruid for a period that was longer than my actual suspicion of her while I awaited a post that I felt demonstrated the expected knowledge. This is the main reason why I made a point to mention it IMMEDIATELY as I noticed it, rather than waiting until Today, because I didn’t want it to be some sort of post hoc reasoning.
So, I think this puts a fair amount of reasoning behind suspicion of Nanook, Mind Wanderer, and Bufftabby. And, to follow up, I’ll be putting my vote on the one of whom I’m most suspicious.
Vote Nanook of the North Shore
Also, let’s do some quick number crunching. Right now there are 10 people left, of which 2 are confirmed townies, so that leaves our theoretical role distribution looking something like this:
2 Masons
1 Detective
3 Assassins
4 Simpletons
This means, if we lynch at random, we have a 3/8 chance of nailing scum, but it also means the scum have a 1/5 chance of nailing the Detective by pure chance. I think it’s a reasonable time to evaluate the Detective’s options.
To simplify the cases, I’ll treat a reading on someone who is already dead or on one of our Masons as failed (although, a reading on the Masons that indicates they’re lying is an unlikely possibility, but almost certainly worth revealing immediately). So, you could have anywhere from 0 to 3 readings:
0 Readings: If this is where you are, you’re just damned unlucky. And though we wouldn’t necessarily be able to believe you, you could pretty much be treated as confirmed because once everyone knows all the valuable roles, the scum will start killing confirmed, and you’re more dangerous than the Masons. However, since they’d kill you anyway, this is no different than remaining unclaimed and getting hit my chance, except we’d know not to look for crumbs. IMO, if this is the case, it’s not worth claiming.
1 Reading: This would effectively give us either 4 confirmed, or 3 confirmed and 1 scum. For the first possibility, that would give us a 1/2 chance of lynching scum, an okay turn out for the Detective. For the latter situation, we lynch the scum, you die Tonight, and we’re down to 2 Masons, 4 townies, and 2 scum Tomorrow. IMO, this is a borderline case, and I’d say it depends on who you are and who your reading is of.
2 Readings: There’s three possibilities here. If they’re both town, that puts us at 5 confirmed townies and 3 scum hiding amongst 5 people. With still one more wrong lynch, even at random, that’s pretty decent odds. If one is town, and one is scum, we lynch the scum, you die Tonight and we’ve got 3 confirmed, 3 townies, and 2 scum Tomorrow, pretty decent odds again. If they’re both scum, after two Days we’ll be down to 1 confirmed, 4 townies, 1 scum. However you look at it, that puts this in our favor, and IMO, this is a definite claim scenario.
3 Readings: I won’t bother to lay it out, since it’s even better than the last, but it’ll pretty much make the rest of the game a walk in the park. You absolutely should claim in this scenario.
Also, on a somewhat related note, we are are two wrong lynches from losing, so we really need to maximize the information from Yesterdays lynch (and I think there’s a lot in there).
And of course, I leave it to my more experienced brethren. My point was merely to take advantage of the current situation. I don’t know know if we even have a detective - curses to Sach.
Just saying if we have a detec and there is some helpul info then we should be at a point that it could be closure at this point. and detective - do what you will. Do not listen to the rest of the bullshit that be me
Ok, then help me. If I was any type of scum and you were not then I’d take you out in an instant. I mean, FCS, would’t you? This vote can move based on the response.
And if it’s “horrific logic” then I could be spot on.
[OOG] Hey everyone, I’m sad to report that one of my cats died early this morning, so things are bad in the ShadowFacts household right now. I will definitely be in to contribute toDay, but probably not soon. So I apologize in advance for the unusual silence on my end.[/OOG]
Sorry to hear. Peace.
Pk
<snipped/bleached>
You’ll have to pardon me, but I don’t see how you went from point A to point B here. The snipped part of your post, to me can be summed up as: “I helped drive the suspicion against fluiddruid, here’s why that townie and not scum”. Then you say that gives a “fair amount of reasoning” to vote for Nanook, MindWanderer, and I. Wherte the hell is the connection here??? Hell, there is probably at least one scum on that list, but I am not seeing this “reasoning” you speak of.
Nanook of the North Shore
In #853 you mention zuma being erratic. Is that from other games 'cause I don’t see a heck of a lot of posts in this game that one could use to reach any type of conclusion one way or the other?
Yeah, I though he had a shitty reason for voting for FD. My previous snuggle on her was basically just me saying “I don’t think she’s scum because QoT voted for her Day one, and I don’t think FD would be dumb enough as scum to kill someone who had just voted for her.” It’s not a snuggle in the sense of me saying she must be town, but more in the sense that, at that point, I didn’t see that as scummy. Oh, and I’m gonna feel free to snuggle with or without your approval. I can snuggle without fixing someone in my mind as a confirmed Townie, obviously.
Eh, I feel well within my right to understand other people’s points of view. I’m not gonna fake being convinced on a vote, when I do in fact have some reservations.
It’s not like she didn’t post at all between my snuggle of her and my vote on her. I didn’t just change my mind for shits and/or giggles. I found her vote shifts off of MtS very suspicious, as I didn’t believe his claim for a second, and I thought it was either foolhardy or scummy to do so, and I was leaning toward scummy. Considering that I was leaning toward scummy, I found a scenario in which FD and MtS were in-fighting scum as highly beleievable. I also had a gut scumread on FD at the time, and was willing to follow that based on the afore-mentioned hypothetical scenario.