Mafia: Simpletown

The Game Room
1001

[QUOTE=RyJae]

[QUOTE=NAF1138]
Hey all,

I haven’t read the thread yet but I see that the scum made the mistake of not taking out a mason last Night.

Stupid scum.

I think I can break the game with last Night’s reading.

Oh yeah, I am the Detective.

BlaM is town (Night 1)
Pedescribe is town (Night 2)
Ice Cream Man (now Ryjae) is SCUM (Night 3)
How do you like them apples.

Looks like I am going to die now.

See you all on the flip side.
Got to catch up on my reading.

Oh, and I pegged Ice Cream Man as scum based on my analysis of the vote patterns. I then made a case for him and decided not to vote for him so I could investigate him that Night without risking being killed. Turned up right. Do some real analysis and you might not have to worry about me not getting another chance to investigate.

Hey town, I will be around toDay to try to provide analysis, but I sort of feel like my job here is done, so I am going to be focusing on the off board game.

I think we just won.

vote Ryjae
Wow, that sucks for us. I was hoping to go through some more posts before doing what I think needed to be done in the first place by ICM but I am a Miller, but most certainly town. Wish it wasn’t so, so you could think you broke the game, but this doesn’t do it.

This will surely mess up with the Day’s discussion being where it needs to be, but it does say you are town at least we have that. And you’re other investigations and masons as town so it does help our cause nonetheless.
[/QUOTE]

Even if you are right, I think the game is still a lock win for the town. 5 confirmables toDay.

1002

HAHA! Nice NAF, you were my primary Detective candidate, as I’m sure you picked up. You’re going to die Tonight, because confirming your reads is the lesser evil (to the scum) than letting you get another one. So, to put the numbers out there, this would mean:

Confirmed Town:
ShadowFacts
Peekercpa
NAF1138
Blaster Master
Pedescribe

Unknown:
Bufftabby
RoOsh
Nanook
Mindwanderer

Scum:
Ryjae

Some other thoughts to follow… lunchtime.

1003

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]

So, to satisfy my suspicion of you, you have to do two things. First, you need to explain the blatant contradiction. Did you buy the arguments against fluiddruid or not? Second, you need to justify your analysis of zuma. Give me some quotes that support that he was SO erratic and anti-town.
[/QUOTE]

Ok let’s lay out the time line. The day starts, a few people vote for fluid. I don’t believe the arguments being made at that time. More days go by, more arguments are made. I do a reread looking to see if I could find scum. In doing so, I start to come around to seeing what the people voting for fluid were seeing. This occurs late in the Day however, so I mention that I my mind has been changing but that I’m going to go a different way since my vote would not matter one way or another as far as the fluid lynch as concerned.

To summarize:
Start day-> don’t believe she’s scum
End day-> leaning towards scum

Is that clearer?

As for zuma, look at post 990. I laid out where I was getting the erratic from. You should know all about it, since you were the one to take over for him after his Batman flameout. How much pressure were you under from the get go because of his behavior? That’s what was freshest in my mind when I made my comments regarding him. As for anti-town, lurking itself is anti-town, since we need comments and information to be able to ferret out scum.

1004

[QUOTE=Nanook of the North Shore]
Right here. And I meant incredulous, but typo’d.
[/quote]

Note the part where I said that I think there is at least one scum on that list. I was talking about you. (And I had to go look up credulous to make sure I knew what it meant, cause context made me think you meant incredulous–but I couldn’t figure out what post you meant either way.) Obviously, if BlaM’s logic points to me as scum, I’m gonna want to know why.

[Quote=NNS]

In other words, you think I’m scum, so therefore what I did shows that I’m scum, which is your reason for thinking I’m scum. Nice circular logic/confirmation bias.
[/QUOTE]

No, it means that your actions have been consistent with my theory. I am very aware of the possibility of confirmation bias, and I try very hard to steer clear of it. Who’s to say that if I hadn’t had a gut reading on you, that your actions wouldn’t have seemed scummy anyway? Then I’d have the same data set, minus a gut feeling, and the same conclusions. Do you not even see where people are coming from on some of these issues? Would you not feel the same way as an observer?

1005

[QUOTE=NAF1138]
Hey all,

I haven’t read the thread yet but I see that the scum made the mistake of not taking out a mason last Night.

Stupid scum.

I think I can break the game with last Night’s reading.

Oh yeah, I am the Detective.

BlaM is town (Night 1)
Pedescribe is town (Night 2)
Ice Cream Man (now Ryjae) is SCUM (Night 3)
[/QUOTE]

Awesome. Alright then, no reason to not vote for the confirmed scum.

Vote Ryjae

The confirmation of Blam as town saves a lot of misdirected discussion and voting and will be a major boon in pushing towards our victory. Things are looking up big time.

1006

[QUOTE=MindWanderer]
Awesome. Alright then, no reason to not vote for the confirmed scum.

Vote Ryjae

The confirmation of Blam as town saves a lot of misdirected discussion and voting and will be a major boon in pushing towards our victory. Things are looking up big time.
[/QUOTE]

Did you even read my response? Confirmed scum I am not! I am a Miller, doesn’t change that NAF was able to confirm a few people. But me being scum isn’t correct.

If nothing else, I suggest I can hang to show I am town, but I do believe we can nail a real scum toDay that will seal the towns victory. Where as lynching me, we lose another town, we still probably will win but I guess A: saving my neck and B: lynching scum are more important to me at this moment in time.

1007

Especially if you are scum. :slight_smile:

1008

[QUOTE=RyJae]
Did you even read my response? Confirmed scum I am not! I am a Miller, doesn’t change that NAF was able to confirm a few people. But me being scum isn’t correct.

If nothing else, I suggest I can hang to show I am town, but I do believe we can nail a real scum toDay that will seal the towns victory. Where as lynching me, we lose another town, we still probably will win but I guess A: saving my neck and B: lynching scum are more important to me at this moment in time.
[/QUOTE]

Oh. Sorry. I didn’t know what a miller was. I’ve only lurked in the you-solve-it which was pretty simple before this.

Unvote Ryjae

1009

[QUOTE=RyJae]
Wow, that sucks for us. I was hoping to go through some more posts before doing what I think needed to be done in the first place by ICM but I am a Miller, but most certainly town. Wish it wasn’t so, so you could think you broke the game, but this doesn’t do it.

This will surely mess up with the Day’s discussion being where it needs to be, but it does say you are town at least we have that. And you’re other investigations and masons as town so it does help our cause nonetheless.
[/QUOTE]

Miller? That’s interesting. There hasn’t been a miller in any of the Dope games in a while. Though from what I’ve seen on mafiawiki and other information places, they’re a fairly standard role so I can’t say I’m surprised to see one. The thing is though, miller isn’t the sort of role claim we can necessarily believe. It sucks when you get stuck with it though, I feel bad for you and ICM. In the end, if I believe NAF’s claim, which I’m leaning towards doing so atm, I’m almost certainly going to switch my vote to you. Even if you’re telling the truth, we’re in fine shape.

1010

[QUOTE=Nanook of the North Shore]
Miller? That’s interesting. There hasn’t been a miller in any of the Dope games in a while. Though from what I’ve seen on mafiawiki and other information places, they’re a fairly standard role so I can’t say I’m surprised to see one. The thing is though, miller isn’t the sort of role claim we can necessarily believe. It sucks when you get stuck with it though, I feel bad for you and ICM. In the end, if I believe NAF’s claim, which I’m leaning towards doing so atm, I’m almost certainly going to switch my vote to you. Even if you’re telling the truth, we’re in fine shape.
[/QUOTE]

It sure is hard to prove and thats why it is a sucky role, and one where I seriously question why ICM didn’t come out right away and claim. Probably with so much indecision he was worried about a lynch and wanted to live, I understand that. :slight_smile:

NAF is the detective, no other way about it. Otherwise he would have never known what he does. So he is town and I’m taking his other investigations at face value.

But you’re certainly going to vote for me raises an interesting question, would you as town want to lynch a potential town aka me a “known” person that will be on the block sooner or later anyway if all scum aren’t killed shortly.
Or want to find a scum out of the very short list, interestingly enough, that you’re on?

1011

[QUOTE=RyJae]
But you’re certainly going to vote for me raises an interesting question, would you as town want to lynch a potential town aka me a “known” person that will be on the block sooner or later anyway if all scum aren’t killed shortly.
Or want to find a scum out of the very short list, interestingly enough, that you’re on?
[/QUOTE]

I’ve seen a lot of discussion on this point before when there’s a confirmed scum(or close enough to it as is the case here). Do you take the bird in the hand? Or do you save him for later and work on getting one of the unknowns? Personally, I am in the bird in the hand camp. Miller is impossible to confirm, and in a lot of ways is a great cover claim for a scum busted by a detective. If you’re scum, voting for you now if obviously a plus. If you’re telling the truth and are a town Miller, it doesn’t really hurt town. Either way, NAF gets confirmed in a way nothing short of death could do better.

Oh, and nice smudge on me. It is irrelevent to me whether or not I’m on that list. I would vote for the bird in hand regardless.

1012

To the Masons and NAF, here’s an alternate idea to lynching Ryjae, as there is no way to be 100% sure at this point. If we lynch Ryjae, we’re doing the testing of NAF’s roleclaim. Why don’t we force the scum to do it for us?

Here’s what I propose, we look at the four unconfirmed and try to find scum in there. Tonight, the scum are faced with a dilemma, but one which has a predictable outcome. They can either kill NAF and confirm everything he’s said, or try to leave him alive and let him continue to investigate. This also means that if NAF is lying, then Ryjae must be as well (as, without a counter-claim Today, it’s probably safe to assume there is no Detective, at which point a Miller wouldn’t make sense).

That all said, I’m fairly certain that Ryjae is full of it, but I think even if he IS scum, we’re still better off keeping him, because we can always lynch him if we’re not sure. Also, in the event that he really IS the Miller, it means we have THREE scum amongst the four unconfirmed, meaning even if we do terrible reasoning, we’re damned likely to hit one in there.

As such, I really think we should focus our efforts on Nanook, Bufftabby, Mindwanderer, and RoOsh. Of those four, I find Nanook the scummiest, RoOsh the least scummy, and it’s tough to differentiate between the other two without some more research.

1013

[QUOTE=Nanook of the North Shore]
I’ve seen a lot of discussion on this point before when there’s a confirmed scum(or close enough to it as is the case here). Do you take the bird in the hand? Or do you save him for later and work on getting one of the unknowns? Personally, I am in the bird in the hand camp. Miller is impossible to confirm, and in a lot of ways is a great cover claim for a scum busted by a detective. If you’re scum, voting for you now if obviously a plus. If you’re telling the truth and are a town Miller, it doesn’t really hurt town. Either way, NAF gets confirmed in a way nothing short of death could do better.

Oh, and nice smudge on me. It is irrelevent to me whether or not I’m on that list. I would vote for the bird in hand regardless.
[/QUOTE]

Yes it was a “smudge” on you, quite on purpose. I find it most interesting you’re one of the people some are finding “scummy” and after NAF’s claim you are solidly in the “Unknown” category with very little company.

Nice for scum to be able to lynch a town toDay and kill the detective tonight, leaving it looking more hopeful for scum.

So it looks to me that either way, lynching scum today would make the most sense. Short list to pick from to boot, and you know what if we don’t get scum I know I’m dead. You say bird in hand, I say you don’t have a bird you have a distraction you’re using the best you can.

1014

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
To the Masons and NAF, here’s an alternate idea to lynching Ryjae, as there is no way to be 100% sure at this point. If we lynch Ryjae, we’re doing the testing of NAF’s roleclaim. Why don’t we force the scum to do it for us?

Here’s what I propose, we look at the four unconfirmed and try to find scum in there. Tonight, the scum are faced with a dilemma, but one which has a predictable outcome. They can either kill NAF and confirm everything he’s said, or try to leave him alive and let him continue to investigate. This also means that if NAF is lying, then Ryjae must be as well (as, without a counter-claim Today, it’s probably safe to assume there is no Detective, at which point a Miller wouldn’t make sense).

That all said, I’m fairly certain that Ryjae is full of it, but I think even if he IS scum, we’re still better off keeping him, because we can always lynch him if we’re not sure. Also, in the event that he really IS the Miller, it means we have THREE scum amongst the four unconfirmed, meaning even if we do terrible reasoning, we’re damned likely to hit one in there.

As such, I really think we should focus our efforts on Nanook, Bufftabby, Mindwanderer, and RoOsh. Of those four, I find Nanook the scummiest, RoOsh the least scummy, and it’s tough to differentiate between the other two without some more research.
[/QUOTE]

I say that, provisionally, this is a good plan.

unvote Ryjae

If we don’t have a viable candidate Thursday morning I say we go back to the Ryjae lynch.

My gut says bufftabby, but that’s just my gut. Let me go back and look at the votes again and see what I see.

1015

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
To the Masons and NAF, here’s an alternate idea to lynching Ryjae, as there is no way to be 100% sure at this point. If we lynch Ryjae, we’re doing the testing of NAF’s roleclaim. Why don’t we force the scum to do it for us?

Here’s what I propose, we look at the four unconfirmed and try to find scum in there. Tonight, the scum are faced with a dilemma, but one which has a predictable outcome. They can either kill NAF and confirm everything he’s said, or try to leave him alive and let him continue to investigate. This also means that if NAF is lying, then Ryjae must be as well (as, without a counter-claim Today, it’s probably safe to assume there is no Detective, at which point a Miller wouldn’t make sense).

That all said, I’m fairly certain that Ryjae is full of it, but I think even if he IS scum, we’re still better off keeping him, because we can always lynch him if we’re not sure. Also, in the event that he really IS the Miller, it means we have THREE scum amongst the four unconfirmed, meaning even if we do terrible reasoning, we’re damned likely to hit one in there.

As such, I really think we should focus our efforts on Nanook, Bufftabby, Mindwanderer, and RoOsh. Of those four, I find Nanook the scummiest, RoOsh the least scummy, and it’s tough to differentiate between the other two without some more research.
[/QUOTE]

I know you didn’t direct this at me, and I don’t fully agree with the logic in it. I’m still of the mind set of taking the bird in hand, but I can understand the idea behind it. Of the ones you listed, I know I’m town(for all the good that does), and I’ve already laid out my suspicion of Mindwanderer. If you or NAF want, I can do so again.

Oh and since I’m here and there’s almost certainly no point in it anymore:

Unvote Blaster Master

And I was so sure too. Good that he’s 99% confirmed, bad that I missed so badly.

1016

Unvote Master Blaster

I’m going to agree with NAF1138 that we go ahead with your plan with the knowledge that we can always come back to RyJae.

1017

[QUOTE=Nanook of the North Shore]

Let’s start with Blaster. He’s decided that I’m scum since I decided not to vote for fluid after her lynch was already a done deal. At the beginning of the Day, I didn’t buy the case against her. As the Day went on, I started learning the other way. I decided that since it was a done deal, and nothing I said or did short of claiming detective and an investigative result on her would change things, I would instead get a head start on the next Day. This is apparently scummy. Which is fascinating if you consider that Blaster did more or less the same thing later in the Day, when he unvoted fluid and voted for me. Not only that, but after driving hard for fluid all day, he suddenly decided she was town. He claims now that it was all part of his master plan to catch scum, but I don’t believe that for a second. He more or less lead her to the gallows, and he claims it was to see how she would react?
[/QUOTE]

I agree with you actually on these points, as this is my biggest flaws with BlaM and his “Master Plan” it just reeks of opportunism. That and the fact that he and Buffy are just seemingly going in tandem here makes me quite suspicious.

On Nanook’s Trains/Voting

[QUOTE=bufftabby]
I disagree.
[/QUOTE]

Please explain. Are you disagreeing with the first part (that the voting was affected by yours and Nanook’s votes), or the second part which is a train is not a train if there are not any votes? Because that second part seems quite reasonable to me. It’s called Smudging/Snuggling/ and creating a Bandwagon… It’s actually in scums’ best interest to create “trains” and not be associated with them in the end.
So I’m curious to hear your thoughts on the matter.

And I just Read NAF's Claims.
Interesting. Very nice indeed. Clean, quick and easy.
And then Ryjae's counter claim of miller.

Hmm... Easy way to test that claim:
**Vote Ryjae.**


A miller is of no use to us if you are telling the truth. But finding out if our Cop is honest IS a better goal. Especially if it leads to more confirmed Townies.
See BlaM*? I can play arsehole Townie too! Just like a dotchan lynch- kill her for info! Guts don't lie! 

You gots some information there, Ryjae? What have you been doing as a Miller and all?  

*And Blam. Fine. You played an asshole Townie card though. I'm not Storyteller though, so I won't yell at you further about how Risky and ANTI-Town that play was.... But if Ryjae's not scum, I'm coming after you... after NaF that is.  :dubious: (Man, I still love that face)

*Will continue this in another post now* As this one is getting long. I'm at post 1008 currently.
1018

What is a Miller, and for what conceivable reason could a Miller appear as scum? Not saying I believe there was a false read, mind you, but I’d like to be fully informed so I can vote properly.

1019

[QUOTE=bufftabby]
What is a Miller, and for what conceivable reason could a Miller appear as scum? Not saying I believe there was a false read, mind you, but I’d like to be fully informed so I can vote properly.
[/QUOTE]

A Miller is a player who’s only power is to show up as scum when investigated.

Sometimes it is coupled with other powers like roleblocker or toughguy or a starcrossed lover. But as it stands, a claim of Miller means that a vanilla town has a scum read.

IF Ryjae is a miller, I would bet large sums of money on the fact that there were only 3 scum to start with.

1020

[QUOTE=bufftabby]
What is a Miller, and for what conceivable reason could a Miller appear as scum? Not saying I believe there was a false read, mind you, but I’d like to be fully informed so I can vote properly.
[/QUOTE]

Hey everyone, I am back and trying to catch up. Lots going on in my absence!

Here is the Mafiascum wiki on Millers