[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
To the Masons and NAF, here’s an alternate idea to lynching Ryjae, as there is no way to be 100% sure at this point. If we lynch Ryjae, we’re doing the testing of NAF’s roleclaim. Why don’t we force the scum to do it for us?
Here’s what I propose, we look at the four unconfirmed and try to find scum in there. Tonight, the scum are faced with a dilemma, but one which has a predictable outcome. They can either kill NAF and confirm everything he’s said, or try to leave him alive and let him continue to investigate. This also means that if NAF is lying, then Ryjae must be as well (as, without a counter-claim Today, it’s probably safe to assume there is no Detective, at which point a Miller wouldn’t make sense).
[/QUOTE]
This is an interesting plan, and one which deserves very careful consideration. I’m going to try to lay out the possibilities:
If we don’t lynch RyJae:
[ul]
[li]Assuming he is telling the truth, scum would probably kill NAF, confirming his reads on **BM **and pede, as well as his own Detectivity (I just made that word up); RyJae’s role would still be up in the air. Information result: 4 confirmed roles (lynchee, NAF, BM, pede) [/li][li]Alternately, scum could decide to kill someone else to keep us guessing, probably myself or **peeker **since we are confirmed, and leave **NAF **alive. Information result: 1 confirmed role (lynchee) and lots of questions about **NAF’s ** Detectivity. [/li][/ul]
If we do lynch RyJae and he comes up scum:
[ul]
[li]Scum would probably kill NAF to prevent further reads, confirming his reads on **BM **and pede, as well as his own Detectivity; RyJae’s role would be known. Information result: 4 confirmed roles (RyJae, NAF, BM, pede)[/li][li]Alternately, scum could decide to kill someone else, probably myself or **peeker **since we are confirmed, and leave **NAF **alive. Information result: 1 confirmed role (RyJae), but **NAF ** and his other reads would be 99% confirmed (99% - NAF, BM, pede), plus the 99% Detective would still be alive.[/li][/ul]
If we do lynch RyJae and he comes up Miller:
[ul]
[li]Scum would probably kill NAF to prevent further reads, confirming his reads on **BM **and pede, as well as his own Detectivity; RyJae’s role would be known. Information result: 4 confirmed roles (RyJae, NAF, BM, pede)[/li][li]Alternately, scum could decide to kill someone else, probably myself or **peeker **since we are confirmed, and leave **NAF **alive. Information result: 1 confirmed role (RyJae), and to be honest I’m not sure how exactly **NAF ** and his other reads would be taken at this point. My gut says he would be mostly confirmed, although it’s murkier in my mind than if **RyJae **turned up scum. (The Miller role is confusing me a little).[/ul][/li]
So, to me, with all that said, I’m leaning toward lynching RyJae, as the risk of getting little to no information in my second bullet point is very troubling to me, and the rewards not so great. Does anyone see any flaws in my information results?