My personal feelings are that NaF is the real deal, as there hasn’t been a counter claim.
But then again, the Doctor in this game died on the first Day. :dubious:
So once again, NEWBIE OR NOT, If you’re a COP out there, or ANY sort of information provider and you feel NAF is NOT one. PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF OG- SAY SOMETHING!
A cop should be trusted until a false result or a counterclaim.
A Fake cop that isn’t counterclaimed can wreak havok with the Town.
So Please… Speak Up if you’re also a Cop (And I really don’t buy the idea of 2 cops in a “simple” game), but still speak up.
At this point, if NAF isn’t the real deal, then either there isn’t a detective/cop role, and we’re fucked, or the detective/cop hasn’t counterclaimed, in which case he/she is an idiot barring some monumentally good reason for holding back.
The first thing I should say is that, having gone through that, I am very much inclined to believe NAF and somewhat inclined to believe RyJae. It strains credulousness, IMO, that scum came up with such a convoluted plan as a false claim by NAF followed by a Miller claim from RyJae, followed by a Blaster plan not to test those claims. Sure, it’s possible from experienced players like NAF and Blaster, but I’m not buying it. And if that is what they’re doing and we lose, well, hats off to you, boys! There is still a chance that RyJae is just a false-claiming scum.
With that in mind, the chances of us nailing scum among the unknowns is 50% or 75% and the upside of such a kill is substantial. Additionally, as Blaster was trying to tell me earlier, it forces scum to choose between killing NAF and confirming his reads, or letting him live and giving us another (albeit) unconfirmed investigation.
RoOsh, I’m in agreement with you that post hoc reasoning doesn’t do much good. However, those posts together were something that struck me as suspicious at the time, not just post-detective revelation. Now that we’ve got a bit more information (Blam and peek as town), I decided to include that information as well. It is defintely a minor point. Just a thought.
RoOsh, I’m in agreement with you that post hoc reasoning doesn’t do much good. However, those posts together were something that struck me as suspicious at the time, not just post-detective revelation. Now that we’ve got a bit more information (Blam and peek as town), I decided to include that information as well. It is defintely a minor point. Just a thought.
Scenario 5
Lynch one from Unknown (result: Town), scum kill Probable Town (not NAF)
Result:
8 Players
5 Town (2 or 3 confirmed)
3 Scum (maybe one found)
This is probably the worst outcome for Town, as we lynch one more of our own and don’t get NAF and his reads fully confirmed. Again, if NAF reports a scum read here we would lynch that person, thus confirming him and his other reads (or not). If not, we would obviously lynch NAF next, but scum could vote as a block then (3 vs. 3) for at least a 50/50 shot at the win.
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But it’s a heck of a lot worse that that, 3/3 50/50, town wins the coin flip 3/2, Scum whack a town, 2/2 another coin flip, town wins the coin flip, scum whack a town, 1/1 coin flip.
I think the odds in that case are around twelve percent. If Blaster Master is even reading my posts he could give us exact odds (I think the actual exact number is 12.5 but will obviously defer).
Danger, Danger, Will Robinson.
Nanook of the North Shore: I feel your pain but would happily participate in newb game with you
I have to say that as a participant it’s a whole lot more intimidating playing as opposed to observing. I understand that this is a game with rules and strategies but I gotta be honest with you - When I play golf with my 11 year old it’s a heck of a lot different than when I play the city open.
I don’t know. I’m happy with my vote, since I haven’t seen millers in a while, and we’ve already seen a false role-claim once this game. If we lynch RyJae, we have a [WAG]30%[/WAG] chance of lynching scum, along with confirming/denying NAF and confirming/denying millers in the game (becuse the likeliehood that milllers are here, but that RyJae is scum, is unlikely). That information swing is significant enough that I’m willing to vote with the probability above. That, and I have had a gut feeling about IceCreamMan before. (264)
I completely agree that that is dangerous, which is why I was leaning toward voting RyJae earler. But what I came to understand is that Scenario 5 would only come to pass if NAF is not the Detective and was counting on us not to confirm him immediately (which he never suggested until Blaster proposed it, unless I remember wrong). That would mean Blaster would probably have to be his scumbuddy and they cooked up this scheme last Night, hoping the real Detective wouldn’t counterclaim or hoping there was no Detective.
I find the odds of all that to be very, very small. Therefore, I now think we should take the advantage that NAF’s claim and our confirmed Mason status affords us.
Who of the 4 unknown to vote for, I’m not sure yet. But that’s what the remainder of the Day is for (for me - YMMV).
And I am not disagreeing at all. Just that the chance is something greater than zero. And could Blaster Master and NAF1138 hatch something like this up - I also put the probability at something greater than zero. If we lynch RyJae and he is in fact a Miller then NAF1138 is officially confirmed for previously stated reasons. If he shows up as vanilla scum and NAF1138 doesn’t get whacked then it becomes a little more problematic.
Would Blaster Master and NAF1138 hatch this type of plot and throw a newbie scum under the bus? That’s pretty apparent to me - YES.
I have to add that I think the above possibilities are remote but possible.
And this is the last I will say on this.
Back to read because catching one of the four unconfirmed is ultimately in the town’s best interest as others have said. I will leave my vote on RyJaye at this point - subject to change on my review and any other comments or observations from the rest of you.
And if MindWandere doesn’t get in here and start posting resulting in a modkill with no relase of information then that will be where my vote ultimately lands regarless of any other conclusions that may be reached.
I hope the length of this post doesn’t piss anyone off.
Yeah. I’m totally worried about this. **BlaM **and **NaF **are two players I totally can see doing this. Of course, I could see myself doing this as well, so I guess you could add me to that list.
Especially because this is a REALLY great way for NaF to divert ALL suspicion from BlaM for his actions yesterDay- simply claim cop and say BlaM is clean… And if the cop claims, then it’d be a coin flip on who we lynch with NaF getting the early Cred for claiming early and well.
It’s a Paranoid thought, but It’s the typa crap I think about all the time…
However, I’m just pushing this thought back- if NaF is still alive tomorrow, I’ll start to wonder about this a bit more. Until then, I’ll fill this under “Worst Case Scenario.”
You still haven’t said how you figure I’m a bird in the hand, you’re more likely to be that bird. I know a mis-lynch ensures my death so I’m going for the scummiest of the final 4, and that’s you. Your vote with that fake bird in hand line, leads me to think you want to take out someone you know is a town. Only way you know that is if you’re scum.
I totally worry about everything. I’m like Batman in that sense.
I worry about the fact that I should have drank ordered Mountain Dew instead of Raspberry Iced Tea. But then again, I also maybe should have cut back, and so Maybe I should have gotten Baja Blast Mt. Dew instead of regular. But then I wonder is there a caloric difference between the two? Or is it just a flavor pairing.
And if it’s just a flavor pairing, then why do they call it Mountain Dew as well? Just to appeal to the consumers of Mountain Dew? If this is the case, then aren’t we all just sheep being led around by our Brand Names? And whatever happened to that Purple Mountain Dew?
I Totally Worry about questions like these all the time.
That being said, I’m content to worry about things all the time, but I won’t act on them. But I’d be lying if I said I hadn’t thought about this possibility. Of the 3 Players to do this sorta thing in this game- 2 of them are involved in it. (The other being me of course). So it’s there, **NaF **old buddy. You’re no longer a newbie, I consider you quite the old hand at this game now.
And Blaster WAS my big suspect before you showed up. Rather Convenient.
But I’ll trust for now. And Worry in the back of my mind. Always Preparing.
I’m Batman.
Nice OMGUS. I’m not the one that was investigated as scum. That’s what makes you the bird in hand. Your claim of powerless miller is not a claim at all. It is completely impossible to verify short of death or the game ending.
Interesting though that you had nothing to say all day until I voted for you. It kind of reminds me of your actions in the Batman game. Where you were PFK.
If I find out that this is the truth, I will find where you live, wait for you, and then either beat the living crap out of you OR buy you a beer (or mountain dew, your choice really) I am not sure which.
Just saying.
Is there a consensus amongst the confirmeds yet? I think Rooshy here or Bufftaby make good lynch candidates if we are not going to lynch Ryjae, and I am of the opinion that not lynching Ryjae is the better way to go, but I think we should work as a unit in this decision.
Of the unknowns, I like Mindwanderer, then bufftabby, then Roosh(insert standard disclaimer regarding my own alignment here). I still prefer Ryjae though, both for the bird in the hand aspect and the guaranteed confirmation of you, Blam and pedescribe.
No I talked all day in that game, and voted for myself. So nothing like this game at all, and I don’t think they’re PFK amongst us in this game.
I had plenty to say earlier in this game, but was waiting for your actions to cement mine. You have pinged many as scummy as was pointed out by me and others on this very Day.
I am a powerless miller, that is correct and only my death or the death of you and the other scum will prove it to be. Obviously I’d like to see you and the other scum die and me live, which also confirms me. And you seem to not realize that my death is inevitable if we do not consistently lynch scum, starting with you and working our way down the unconfirmed list. And I think we can win without losing another townie.
There is still a chance that RyJae is just a false-claiming scum.