I don’t think there can be a godfather (at least with recruitment ability) unless Sach is going for bastard Mod of the year.
That’s why asked about any other potential non vanilla scum.
The defenses seem reasonable…I suppose. Ah, perhaps I’m being a little overenthusiastic. After all, it is my first game! 
Unvote Koldanar
But I am putting an FOS on you.
Man, this is confusing. I have no idea what to think, there’s mafia on all sides, and, like, EIGHT people posted. That’s only half! How am I supposed to get suspicious like this, especially when everyone’s so good at defending themselves.
Well, here’s hoping I live. 
Also, am I talking too much? I never can tell.
I’m just sort of hanging back at the moment and trying to listen and learn from the more experienced players. Mindwanderer and Blaster Master are on a whole different plane than me right now, so I think the only thing for me to do is vote random and try to keep up.
Vote for fluiddruid
I agree with the random vs. pseudorandom idea in theory, but I don’t think we’ll ever have enough data to discern such differences.
It’s exciting to be voted for! I don’t have any particular reason to think Ice Cream Man is scum, though, so I won’t counter-vote him.
I’ll wait for some more votes to accumulate before I vote.
I know! It’s kind of intimidating.
I think at this point we just have to try the best we can.
From what I’ve read online, a townie is usually lynched the first day (although Blaster Master I think said that it’s about 50/50 historically on this board). Also, even though we won’t be able to make any definite conclusions about what we talk about now (unless a mafia scum slips up I guess) I think it’ll probably come in handy once more information is revealed to us.
So I think it’s all in our best interest to be prolific in our posting.
We are the Valkyries who take the Fallen from this Field of Glory to the Valhalla (a.k.a, the Forbidden Thread).
I’m glad you took it so well! I almost felt bad when your number came up. I’d rather not vote for anyone really but it does seem to be the only way to learn anything.
[analysis hat on] Unless you’re being nonchalant about it because you’re mafia and you don’t want to seem nervous! … hmmm. [/analysis hat]
Can do! 
I’m by no means experience, I’m a newb enjoying this game for the first time. My post count should go way up as a result. Usually I post less than 4 times a week, yet alone in a few hours.
This game is already turning me paranoid. Did Mindwanderer volunteer to crunch numbers so he can lead us astray? Is pedescribe such an eager beaver because he’s new, or because he’s trying to cast suspicion on everyone other than him? I just don’t know!
Man, this game is not wasting any time is it? I sign up and before I know it I have a pm and there’s a bunch of posts.
I was thinking about the game set up and what roles there may or may not be today at work. I’m thinking a minimum of things, since Sach stated he wanted a back to basics game. A doc, maybe a detective or beat cop, 2-3 masons perhaps. If there’s a pro-town investigator, there’s a good chance of a godfather, but I would expect the rest of the scum to be vanilla. 16 players, so I think 4 is a safe bet for scum.
There are a lot of new players in this game, along with a couple of vets. This is both a good thing and a bad thing. Its a good thing in that we won’t have any preconceived notions about people(I know I can’t help but think SCUM whenever I see a post by Santo Rugger), but on the other hand a good scum tell is to look for changes in playing style. I’m glad to have the experience of people like Blam available to draw on, but we need to be careful of blindly following them. Just look at the way storyteller manipulated people in M2.
No FoS’s or suspicions at this point. I agree with Blam about using random early, so at this time I will vote for
**
MadtheSwine **
Yeah, I realized after I posted that I meant Koldanar, I got confused since you were all like “MATH, NUMBERS, PROBABLILITY”. The brain, she doesn’t work sometimes. What have I gotten myself into? 
IIRC, the only game here where scum was lynched Day One was the first game. Probabilistically speaking, with the assumption that a pro-town power role will claim and we’ll avoid lynching them, even if we assume scum are dumb and just eat a lynch, the best case scenario is about a 2:1 odds that we’ll lynch town and, IME, more often than not, it’s a new player who gets a band wagon for what’s nothing more than poor logic or strategy on his part. However, this is still generally in the town’s favor because, based on the strength of the evidence, we can then build vote records and establish accountability.
That said, and with this warning, I fully expect every vote following the first non-random vote to include reasoning. Going “I agree with so-and-so” doesn’t cut it. What parts do you agree with? Are there any parts you don’t find convincing? Unsubstantiated votes don’t provide any accountability or any way for the votee to defend himself. Any votes that do not include sufficient reasoning, I will evaluate with great scrutiny.
I assum this is a random vote?
While I understand you’re new at this, and as such, I won’t put much weight to it, but drawing attention to one’s newness is a “classic scum tell”. That is, we’re generally going to be more lenient with newer players if they make tactical mistakes or screw up. Scum motivation could easily be that you’re emphasizing this to try to gain some measure of leniency from the town at large.
As such, I do encourage any newer players to make their experience known. I appreciate that, as it helps me evaluate motivations; however, I will be making a mental note of those who continue to play the noob card.
But to answer your questions IME, mathematical posts or any posts of factual data such as post counts, vote counts, etc. are generally null tells in and of themselves. There can be underlying motivations for such behavior, like boosting vote counts, or directing discussion, but that is normally drawn from the context of such posts or encapsulating information in the post, and not necessarily the math itself.
NETA: This is pure fluff but, Queen of Town, I find your username amusing in the context of this game. For your sake, I hope it is coinicidence and not irony.
'Kay, thanks Blaster Master. And yes, that was a random vote, and no, my name is not meant to be ironic! It’s a Homestar Runner reference.
Can any give a brief glossary of Mafia acronymns? There are a fair number of them that I don’t know yet.
I know FOS but I have no idea what NETA means for example.
I’m sick as a dog atm, so I’m not firing on all four cylinders, but can someone explain how the scum could give themselves away by not voting randomly? Town will use a set of 15 (each eliminating him or herself, as we saw above), while cautious scum will use a set of ~12 (bolder scum may include other scum in the set of possible choices). Since we’ll only get a single sample, I’m not sure how we could distinguish them.
If you’re unsure, please just point it out. NETA stands for Not Editted To Add. I suppose it’s a bit of a joke because we can’t edit posts, but it really just means it’s more of an addendum to the previous post.
Just a heads up. On the weekend I am pretty much limited to posting from my Blackberry so they may not be as substantial as if I was at my normal computer. I’ll try to keep them at least as coherent as tdn’s.