You really will argue about anything, won’t you? I don’t believe it ever got resolved in this thread. I’m so sorry that I had to go all the way back in his posts to 6/14/07 to actually find the answer. I should’ve just known.
Because if you were Town, you’d want to make sure you had all the information first, before lynching RyJae. But you don’t care, because you’re scum.
This is indeed possible, but I think it’s a small possibility. Assume you’re scum and you get caught. He has three options, roll over and die (bad idea), try to contradict the Detective and hope they believe you, or try to come up with an explanation. It’s not like he posted a role PM, all he did was say “I’m a Miller.” The problem is, if he’s scum and he contradicted the detective, he’d have had to explain where the real detective was, which would mean either he’d claim it and have to provide readings as well, or try to convince us there isn’t one. That plan would have almost surely resulted in him dying that Day.
The latter plan is fairly simple. A Miller is a relatively simple role, and I don’t see coming up with it as particularly difficult. It is exactly what I’d expect a caught scum to do in that situation. The problem is, it’s also exactly what I’d expect an investigated Miller to do. Hence, motivation isn’t useful here. Second, neither possibility requires some outrageous sequence of events, where I’d bring Occam’s Razor in (reference Monkgate), hence I don’t think that’s particularly useful either.
Instead, I evaluate it like this. How suspicious was I of him already? Fairly suspicious, but not in any way I could substantiate. How suspicious am I after going and doing some analysis? Even more so. How likely is it that the Miller role exists? Not particularly likely. So, take my suspicion probability (say, 80%) and normalize that with the townie probability (which would be 20%) and the probability that there’s a miller (guess 10%) and you get a pretty damn high chance that he’s scum (97.6% chance).
The thing is, the analysis I did against MW with the assumption that Ryjae was scum can now be done the opposite way with the guarantee that MW is scum. Further include the reasons that NAF had laid out, and that’s my suspicion.
I would urge all you buff voters (and everyone else, what with being non-RoOsh voters) to look back at the exchange between RoOsh and I, and examine whether RoOsh really even seems to be paying attention to what I have to say. He doesn’t, and that’s scummy as hell to me. He’s playing Town so over-the-top it’s not funny, but I seem to be the only one who sees it. So, look for it, please; if you still don’t see it, fine, but you’ll at least know you tried when I come up Town and this all seems like a huge mistake.
If you’re town, I understand your frustration, but let’s try looking at it another way. We have one mislynch, assuming we use one on Ryjae and that he is scum or is a Miller and there is only one scum amongst the three unknowns, this means we have two ways of approaching the rest of the game. Right now, we’re trying to find the scummiest of the three left. Another option is to find the towniest of the three left and not lynch that person because we can afford to lynch two of the three of you.
If you are town, then your lynch here isn’t a bad thing because if we can tell which of the other two is townier it’s all good. Your job as a townie, if you’re going to die, is to help us maximize the information we gain from your death. Remember, if you are townie and you die, everything to said now has confirmable motivation; you become a post-humous confirmed townie.
Yeah, I pretty much wanna ensure that my death isn’t in vain. Of course, I would prefer that we lynched scum instead, but hey what can I do. As long as my death helps us kill of the rest of the scum (his name is RoOSH! His name is RoOsh!) then it is all good.
I’m going with the same plan as yesterday, scum after scum I live and win when we are done. As long as we stay hitting scum I get to live, so my case is pretty simple the scummiest of the unknowns must be lynched. Now is where it’s getting hairy, I know we have to nail scum and I am so not feeling bufftabby as being nearly as scummy as Nanook. And if bufftabby turns out to be town then I am dead.
The person that is pushing the hardest for bufftabby happens to also be an unknown(RoOsh), and Nanook is not even being looked at. So in my analyzingless thinking, RoOsh and Nanook are the remaining scum, pushing for bufftabby today to have the town eliminate me tomorrow leaving them 4 up. (town lynching 2 town and losing 1 town each night) But that’s hedging on bufftabby being town, which her arguments sure seem to be town. We need to lynch scum so my vote is going where I think the scum is.
**
vote Nanook**
OK, now I’m confused. If you’re 97.6% sure that RyJae is scum, why wouldn’t you want to vote for him? Look at my scenarios above - if he’s scum and we lynch him today, we’d be at 5-1 tomorrow. If you’re THAT sure he’s scum, it makes no sense not to lynch him. If I was ever 97.6% certain of anything in this game, I’d be going with that. Can you fight my ignorance here?
Of course not. He has nothing more than that because he knows I’m town. Heck, the only argument that’s really been brought against me is my actions with Mad, which I’ve explained multiple times. That’s been pretty much the only point Ryjae has brought up against me in the last few Days. He’s been on me hard ever since I stated back when NAF came out that we should lynch him. That’s not to say we should lynch him toDay. I’ve come around to NAF’s idea that we go after the unknown’s first, since there’s a chance, however small, that we won’t have to lynch Ryjae at all. If he’s telling the truth about being a miller, which I doubt but is possible, and bufftabby is scum, as she appears to be the most likely lynch toDay, then we will almost certainly on the spot.
I’m looking at it from an informational perspective. With the Lead Assassin dead, and no reason to believe that there’s other scum roles or ways to distinguish them if there were, there’s no long term effect by the order in which we lynch scum, so whether we lynch confirmed scum or unknown scum, the end result is the same. The negative side-effect of leaving scum alive is that they can potentially sway the vote, but this effect is also negatable by the confirmed townies voting as a block, which we have been.
So, it is to our advantage to maximize the information we gain. If I’m 97.6% sure (and please note, the precision is artificially inflated, my bad), then if he shows up as scum, we gain very little information (2.4% certainty, that is). Plus, we get an extra Day’s worth of information that we can then use to try to track down the last.
OTOH, if we lynch an unknown today, we gain considerably more information. If we lynch scum, we are in great position to win outright Tomorrow. If we lynch a townie, we gain considerable information (100% certainty on that person, and a 50/50 between the other two).
Now, also as I said, I think if the confirmed townies can’t agree, lynching Ryjae is an excellent back-up plan, but the important part of any plan is that we agree to work together and vote as a group to avoid any shenanigans.
The more I think about it, the more this vote stinks. We’re at a few hours until the deadline and Nanook had 0 votes up til now. I’ve already stated that I won’t be voting for him today, and the suspicion is clearly on other players. In short, there is NO WAY that Nanook is going to get lynched today, so this vote is a complete throwaway, and will net the Town zero info to work with toMorrow.
Well I still think that a RyJaye lynch is the safest way to play it if you and ShadowFacts decide on a lynch target I will go along. I’ll leave my vote where it is for now (RyJaye) but will check in again in about an hour or so. The 4 p.m. deadline is EST, right?
Well, to be honest, I’m not sure we’re going to get that consensus. peeker and pedescribe seem pretty firm on RyJae, and to be frank I’m not sold on bufftabby yet. RoOsh is pinging me more, but no other confirmed town seems to think so. Bah, I’m sucking wind right now.
Well, at this point, I’m content to rest the game on the thought that Nanook is least likely to be scum amongst him, RoOsh, and bufftabby. I would still be okay with a RoOsh vote. That said, I’d still rather seen Ryjae lynched than have our votes split.
Either way, I see a lynch sequence of bufftabby, Ryjae, RoOsh as indistinguishable from RoOsh, Ryjae, bufftabby. Unless Nanook is the last scum, the only difference between those two lynch orders is with one we win sooner, and with the other we win later.
So, my fellow confirmeds, to look at my other approach, since we disagree on who is scummiest, is there any agreement on who is towniest amongst the remaining? I’d really like to get us all on the record for who we should lynch prior to Tonight, because one of us won’t make it to Tomorrow.
And I’m completely fine with a Ryjae lynch if we don’t agree. I’d just rather try to sort out the unconfirmeds while we have as many trustables as we can. Even if we lynch wrong Today, the remaining scum would have to be pretty damn bold to resist a Ryjae lynch Tomorrow.
That said, let’s assume for a moment that we lynch Ryjae and he does, indeed, show up as scum, where do you think the last scum resides?
At this point, I’d lynch bufftabby then RoOsh. Shadow seems to think RoOsh then bufftabby. I’d really like to know what you and pedescribe think. We even have orderings from all of the unconfirmeds implicitly.
Well, I decided to go back to the start of toDay to look closer at the RoOsh/bufftabby argument. Here’s a couple things I found:
Note - this is after both Blaster and I suggested continuing against the unknowns and explaining why (plus it was a successful strategy yesterDay). Yet RoOsh doesn’t understand? Really? And he certainly never attacked either of us about it. (On a related note, he’s been absolutely adamant about voting for RyJae. Why? One potential motivation is that it’s easy to hide behind the Detective’s investigation if RyJae comes up town.)
What bufftabby actually said was “You’re just too damn townie-wannabe for me.” Not a huge difference, but definitely a qualitative one. I find it very scummy when people mis-quote others, particularly when they actually use quotation marks.
A minor point, to be sure, but a point nonetheless.
I’m going to keep reading that argument to see if I come up with anything else, but we’re running out of time, so for now I am going to:
