Thanks. (you may continue with your scheduled thread)
And now, back to my #1 suspect:
Interesting you say this, nesta:
The only recent post in which you mention Idle Thoughts is Post #1938. I don’t see anywhere in there where you predict that Idle Thoughts would end up dead (unless you mean the “it could be you that gets lynched instead” bit, but that seems like a bit of a stretch). Just curious if perhaps it was on another discussion forum that you mentioned Idle Thoughts being taken out.
And while we’re looking at that post, what in the world was with the swing between these two paragraphs?
(bolding mine)
So, you thought Idle was town, you always thought Idle was town, but a lynch-preventing role-claim makes you waver in that belief?
Since you asked…
All of us (including scum) were working on the assumption there had been 3 night with no kills. My guess is, to a certain extent, your math still applies. There was recruitment. And (as now-defunct Idle Thoughts might have said) the recruitment was probably a directed one: the doctor.
The main question you’re identifying is: why hasn’t tirial been targeted? It would make sense only if one of two things had happened:
- She has been recruited
- She has been targeted at least once, to no effect (like she said, way back in day 4, if I recall it correctly)
Mind you: the second option makes the most sense to me, since it would mean she had been targetted and afterwards recruited.
I was a ghost all that time! Spooky!
Anyway, last, goodbye post here. Good luck town! Use my and Omi/Zuma’s post in any way you can to help you. See you in the forbidden thread in time (scum, I hope, not my fellow towns).
Go town.
resumes doing ghostly things which he should have been doing before
Honestly… this changes everything. Since we now know there were either two blocks in there, or a block and a recruit, my suspicions levied against diggitCamara and tirial (as well as Idle thoughts (RIP)) posted earlier were quite possibly misplaced. The probability of two blocks are now much higher, since we don’t know if they were consecutive or merely 2 out of 3. Without doing a rigorous calculation, I’d say it’s somewhere around 3 * the probability of two consecutive blocks that I posted way back – i.e. ~ 3*12 = 36%. That is, we have about a 1 in 3 chance that there was no recruitment whatsoever. This is just a pure statistical consideration – it takes nothing into consederation with respect to what is (or should be) sound strategy. Since in general a recruitment is best left for end-game situations, the chances are substantial that they haven’t yet rercruited.
Then again, the mafia were in the dark on all this just like the rest of us. So if I were to suppose for a moment that there were two (apparent) blocks on them after the second no-kill night, they might have indeed thought they had had a read on a role-player, and tried to recruit him/her. This fairs better for the rest of us, since they might have made erroneous conclusions based upon the errant block.
I haven’t fully thought this through though.
Aaaand on preview:
What are we to make of this? I’m beginning to think DiggitCamara is clean.
From the post you linked to:
Emphasis added so you wouldn’t miss it this time.
I don’t understand what you’re trying to imply here. No, I didn’t always think he was town. He was in my probably town list since day 2 or 3 on. And then he made a role-claim that I didn’t find necessary, and that made me a little less sure of him. I don’t know why you find this so strange.
Read the post you linked to again. Half was written before Idle’s role claim, and half after, but I think it still makes sense. It’s rather obvious you didn’t read it very carefully before quoting it here.
<shrug> Can’t really say. Yes, if we take that question at face value, then Diggit is clearly town. However, who can say that it isn’t an exceptionally clever false lead?
And this is actually the second time that he’s made a post like this, in which he asks a question of Gad that scum would have no need to ask. I thought about mentioning it at the time, but got distracted by something shiny I guess.
I’d see about tracking down the post, but I don’t think it would serve any good. Fact is, with our numbers dwindling, I see much more likely scum out there than Diggit.
I stand corrected – there were actually two other instances where Diggit asked questions scum wouldn’t need to ask – Post #1528 and Post #1653
I just thought of an interesting possibility: What if Idle Thoughts was recruited after they failed to kill him. The deal we were shown, with him dying last night, was only half of it. They may have been able to recruit someone else last night as well to make up for them recruiting an already dead player.
I for one will find it very funny if that turns out to be the case.
This is precisely my concern. I wouldn’t be surprised if she had successfully baited the mafia into targetting her on the first no-kill night. If we run on that assumption, then with a possible lead on the doctor (having been blocked) and one of the Do-Gooders (Projammer) dead only one day before, they may have take the stab and recruited her hoping that she was the doctor, and then they’ve had a smaller chance of being blocked and, because she was one of the main proponents in getting fluiddruid lynched, she would hold little suspicion. Then, on the next day, she and Idle go at it with each thinking the other had been recruited. In that case, maybe the mafia targetted him on the third no-kill night to try and simultaneously remove the main threat against tirial and help add some fuel to the SCL fire.
I can’t see them having gone after Idle on the first no-kill night, because if they had, knowing he blocked them, then they either would have gone after him again, gotten blocked again, and recruited him the third night (which obviously didn’t happen), or they would have targetted someone else, gotten blocked again, and recruited them, but why would they be more certain that he was a good target than Idle? Or, they had two more blocks, which puts us in the three-block scenario which, as has been shown, to be a very low probability.
If they had gone after him on the second no-kill night, then I, again, can’t see a more likely target on the first than tirial, and then they would have either tried to recruit one of them on the third (which could only be tirial) or it was another block on another target.
All in all, I really can’t see a scenario that looks good for tirial. Unless I missed something.
While we are at it… couldn’t that be taken as …you know… cheating?
Shouldn’t there be a mechanism to avoid those questions?
Just thinking…
Updated the spreadsheet for your perusal. I haven’t had time to comb it yet, but that’s OK, since I think I know who I’m voting for anyway.
I agree. It is poor form to use something like that as either a ruse to look pro-town when scummy or as evidence of guilt or innocence for asking them.
Yep. Maybe we should agree to PM Gadarene if we have a technical question, and then he’ll post his answer on the thread along with the “anonymized” question.
Do you care to make a case? The only avenues I can see are either the recruitment possibility (if it isn’t tirial, then who?) and the nesta/Hal Briston thing which I still can’t figure out if it’s town vs. town or scum vs. town (I really hope it isn’t scum vs. scum). If they don’t lead to “most likely scum”, they’ll at least lead to “most likely townies”, which means when we do pick a target, we’ll have a better chance.
I would agree with that. That’s probably how I’ll run it when I get the chance to run a game.
I’m actually kind of terrified to make a case. If there are four scum in this game, then me plus them could lead to a quick lynch. If I’m wrong.
The Hal/nesta thing is interesting, but looking back over the votes, there are a few other little in-fights that come to mind. Pretty much everyone has voted for a lot of townies at this point. Anyone else think we should do some long-form posting analyses? We may pick up on some stuff that happened a long time ago.
Nesta’s post about the recruit being Idle and then getting a replacement feels like the sowing of paranoia and rumors. I don’t think Gadarene would let that happen, right? That’s pretty ridiculous. Right?
I understand, but I’m pretty sure we can trust that the mafia wouldn’t just pile on, because it would be too obvious, and I’m sure that seeing a quick pile on, SOMEONE would unvote, right? I’m also fairly confident that if there were that many Plus, don’t forget that we have (I’m guessing three) masons, and they’ll at least be able to direct votes off of themselves.
However, you may still have a valid point.
Are you refering to the total post analyses like what happened near the end of M2? I don’t think that helped the town there very much. By this point in the game, there’s so many posts, and the one doing the analysis, if scum, can easily make some subtle interpretation twists to his liking. If someone has 150 links, is anyone REALLY going to click on, and verify each post interpretation? I think it’s useful for analyzing a specific poster, but I’m not sure if doing it on ALL posters isn’t going to create a larger noise to signal ratio.
If you’re refering to something else though… please elaborate.
Interesting catch. I certainly would’ve hoped not, and I imagine he would have said so.
I’m not talking about the stuff that went on at the end of MII, but more like what some of the posters did in Werewolf (original recipe). There is absolutely no need to link to each post, maybe only a few interesting ones. And I only think we need to do it if we’re making a case for a lynch.
The last thing I’d want to do is lower the signal to noise ratio, and I certainly don’t want to assign everyone another player, because then all members of the Mafia would have a golden opportunity to either incriminate a townie or airbrush a friend. Plus, that’s TONS of busywork.
The bottom line is that we can’t get hooked on “a feeling” (ooga chaka, ooga chaka) about another player any more. We have to base all of our votes on something with more weight. And I’m positive that we will find some new things if we dig back into the past. Now we know who a lot of our townies are, so we’ll be able to see other posters’ views on our dearly departed in a whole new light.
That’s how I would have run it had DiggitCamara not called me out publicly. 
Although I feel compelled to state for the record that I would have responded to him the way I did no matter what role he has—town, mafia, mason, pirate, or octopus.
I was just trying to figure out why DiggitCamara was asking about whether Idle’s recruitment status would be shown, since I’ve felt for quite a while that Diggit is scum, and would therefore know if Idle had been recruited. This made me think of the humorous mix-up of recruiting the dead that I posted. I posted it just for the whimsy of it, in case I turn out to be right, you can all be awed by my deep insight. FTR, I think the chances are pretty slim that Idle was the one recruited, but it could have happened, unless Gadarene wants to set the record straight?