Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler

The Game Room
2101

So I’ve been reading, and (ironically) also find the Diggit drum I’ve been beating to be a pretty lonely song. Perhaps continuing to fly solo isn’t necessarily in the best interest of town with so few players remaining. But I’m not good enough at this game to be very convincing to others as to my suspicion of Diggit. Aside from some recent hesitancy towards him (that was mostly spawned by my recent absence) he is undeniably stuck in my craw.

We’re sufficiently into the game that I’m more inclined to trust the analysis of others, so long as it is at least complimentary to my own. But perhaps the reason I’m still alive is because my reasoning sucks and I’m no threat to the scum. Who knows.

FWIW, tirial’s magic math, however fuzzy it might seem, is the strongest vindication of my suspicion of Diggit that I have seen. And that is enough for me to give her the benefit of the doubt, even though that appears to put me in the minority.

2102

[QUOTE=tirial]
Sorry I meant the large amount of posts from/about Rachm and Diggit I’ve linked to with notably little response. (Will take your word for it for now, as haven;t got time to check voting records. Will check later.).

As long as we get a scum lynched today I really shouldn’t care.
[/QUOTE]

And, though you have posted copious reasons as to why you suspect Rachm, in this post you stated this:

I don’t see where you see a connection between me and Rachm (except for my mis-attribution of a mis-attribution from Rachm about nesta, which, by the way, was a honest mistake, not a lie).

2103

Vote Count

2 – Rachm Qoch (tirial, Hal Briston)
2 – tirial (Millit the Frail, Rachm Qoch)
1 – DiggitCamara (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)

2104

[QUOTE=ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]
FWIW, tirial’s magic math, however fuzzy it might seem, is the strongest vindication of my suspicion of Diggit that I have seen. And that is enough for me to give her the benefit of the doubt, even though that appears to put me in the minority.
[/QUOTE]

Fuzzy is generous. It’s statistically invalid (if someone REALLY wants me to crunch all of the numbers, I will, but I thought the quick 90% chance of being wrong was good enough) and, even if it were, it’s still based on assumptions that her reads on players styles–which, as I pointed out, are highly subjective, and hence not hard data–are accurate and that Idle Thoughts’s scheme is valid–which is self-contradictory because it simultaneously assumes that his reads are accurate (to break them into levels of scumminess) and inaccurate (such there there’s exactly one scum in each category). At least random.org is statistically valid (of course, it’s galactically stupid at this point in the game); this is literally no better.

2105

[QUOTE=tirial]
And BTW Rachm, you need to do your own research. I know d@mn well you will go after me. Why don’t you investigate Diggit? Too worried about validating reasoning that implicates you?
[/QUOTE]
You’re kidding, right? How have I ignored Diggit when I friggin voted for him last time? :confused:

2106

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Fuzzy is generous. It’s statistically invalid (if someone REALLY wants me to crunch all of the numbers, I will, but I thought the quick 90% chance of being wrong was good enough) and, even if it were, it’s still based on assumptions that her reads on players styles–which, as I pointed out, are highly subjective, and hence not hard data–are accurate and that Idle Thoughts’s scheme is valid–which is self-contradictory because it simultaneously assumes that his reads are accurate (to break them into levels of scumminess) and inaccurate (such there there’s exactly one scum in each category). At least random.org is statistically valid (of course, it’s galactically stupid at this point in the game); this is literally no better.
[/QUOTE]

For what it’s worth, I have to agree. Idle Thoughts stubborn pursuit of SnakesCatLady didn’t help townies at all.

For my part I’ve been looking at specific situations and trying to figure out how scum would act in them and, to this point, it’s yielded pretty good results (Lemur866, SnakesCatLady’s correct identification). It remains to be seen how good it is to detect the scum that are still left.

2107

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
And, though you have posted copious reasons as to why you suspect Rachm, in this post you stated this:
I don’t see where you see a connection between me and Rachm (except for my mis-attribution of a mis-attribution from Rachm about nesta, which, by the way, was a honest mistake, not a lie).
[/QUOTE]

Aaaand, if you read that post, please note: the link and the second quote belong to tirial :smack:

2108

[QUOTE=Millit the Frail]
Nesta, you almost always vote late. Who would you vote for, if you had to vote now?
[/QUOTE]

Yeah, I’ve fallen into the habit of voting late because I don’t feel very good about any of my reads, so I wait and wait and hope to get something better, but that doesn’t seem to be working.

If I had to vote now I would vote for Blaster Master. As I said earlier, something about him doesn’t seem right. Yes, that’s a bad reason to vote for someone this late in the game, which is why I haven’t voted for him yet. Until today I would have thought that DiggitCamara was a slam dunk, as I just grew more and more convinced of his scuminess, but his actions earlier today cast a lot of doubt on that, and now I really need to go back and figure out if it was tunnel vision that had me convinced he was scum, or if he just managed to act a lot more like a townie today. If I decided Blaster Master isn’t scum and had to cast a vote right then, it would still be for DiggitCamera.

2109

[QUOTE=tirial]

And my apologies on the misrepresenting vote count - it seems that was Diggit P1848 http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8610035&postcount=1848
lying to implicate me to protect you P1850:
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8610061&postcount=1850
from nesta calling you out on the results of post Post 1752 http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8598625&postcount=1752

[/QUOTE]

OK, I see what you’re referencing. After what seemed like a last-minute scummy “me-too” pile on vote for the doomed Lemur two posts earlier, I factored it into my suspicion matrix where I laid claim against nesta, where among my arguements was the false claim that he never suspected Lemur before then:

When the day dawned, nesta corrected me when he pointed out that I was mistaken in Post 1843:

He was also kind enough to also point out that, in fact, he was not a she. :smack:

I then admitted my error when I replied:

[Quote=Rachm Qoch]
I stand corrected. You had him on your list, but not recently. Maybe you did think he was suspicious all along.
[/quote]

While that didn’t necessarily exculpate him (and still doesn’t), I took that data point out of the suspicion matrix.

I readily admit that I did not do due diligence when I stated nesta never really suspected Lemur – clearly he had – and if I had gone back and re-read nesta’s posts about 7 or 8 pages prior, I would have known this. But my post was a quick under-the-wire reply and I didn’t read back that far before making that post. And when he pointed out my error I accepted it for what it was – a goof on my part.
So then, somewhere down the line nesta somehow got confused, thinking that was DiggitCamara, not me, who posted what I posted about Lemur. And then, dizzingly enough, DiggitCamara errantly told nesta that it was you, not himself, that posted what I posted. Whew.

But as I stated, it all got sorted out.

I don’t know where you’re going with this, but I’ll bite. How is nesta’s confusion about me and Diggit, and Diggit’s subsequent confusing post, supposed to prove that I’m mafia? I can’t see how this somehow puts me in dark congress with Diggit, as you have claimed.

2110

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
:confused: I thought I made my stance quite clear. I’m suspicious of you for lurking, and low content posting, not the feud. The feud in and of itself is not enough reason to suspect either of you. The only reason the feud really matters is because I’m not sure whether it’s town vs. town or town vs. scum (as I said, I really doubt it’s scum vs. scum). In and of itself, it’s not worthy of an FOS because it could have very easily been town vs. town, but I’ve been keeping an eye on it in case it is town vs. scum (which would hence exonerate **Hal ** in my eyes).
[/QUOTE]

Fair enough, I should probably be called on my lurking. It doesn’t make me scum, but I have played a really bad game this time around. Many of my reads have been way off, and I’ve contributed to the death of a number of townies where I probably should have known better if I’d just paid more attention.

Real life has kept me busy and very stressed for the last couple of weeks, so instead of reading and rereading this thread I’ve just been following along. Sorry townies that I haven’t been more of an asset.

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Meanwhile, nesta has remained fairly quiet consistently, likening himself to the lurker style of scum from M2 (like Kat and, interestingly enough, himself particularly). Hence, I’m inclined to believe that, between Rachm Qoch and nesta, the latter is more likely to be scum. Because I’m fairly certain that at least one of them must be, I’m inclined to believe it is nesta.
[/QUOTE]

I don’t agree that either Rachm Qoch or I must be scum, but then again I am biased since I haven’t gotten much of a scum read from Rachm. Of course, that could be because he’s been lurking.

It’s valid to use my posting style from Mafia2 as a guide to judge me in this game. I think you’ll find them to be different if you look closely, as I know I’ve noticed the differences in how I aproach posting between that game and this one. Also keep in mind that I really am a lurker by nature, so that’s a bad way to tell if I’m scum, and I didn’t last very long on Mafia2 due to the SK, so I never got to play mid or late game.

Frankly, at this point, I think you’re picking on the easy targets because you know I’m town and know it’s hard to defend against being called a lurker. The game is near the end, and the Mafia need an easy way to get only a few (or god forbid one) more town lynches and they win. I think you’re trying to set me up in such a way that I get lynched in the next couple of days and your hands look clean.

2111

By the way, what do you mean when you say:

[QUOTE=tirial]

  1. I think whatever happened to Idle Thought happened after that post - I’ve discarded everything he did since.
    [/QUOTE]
    :confused:
    Nothing happened to Idle other than that he became a walking ghost and didn’t know it.
2112

[QUOTE=nesta]
Sorry townies that I haven’t been more of an asset.
[/QUOTE]
Hey, being a living townie at this late stage is asset enough. I’m quite confident of my vote and FOS, so helping pick off one of the last scum would make you a huge asset.

2113

Tirial used to have a spreadsheet of sorts, calculating how many votes each person had made for known townies and known scum. Did you quit doing that, tirial? I’m curious, because it was kind of interesting. Thanks.

2114

By the way, I’m completely lost as to what’s going on with a few of you. Two things I completely don’t understand:

  1. What’s going on with** Idle’s **list? Why are we looking at it? Why would we think it has anything to do with the price of tea in China? Fill me in, someone.

  2. I still don’t get the case against Diggit. He led the lynch against Lemur, which is one of the best pro-town moves I’ve seen in the entire game. I’m totally confused and going back and forth on pretty much everyone in this game (I’m even having a hard time being confident in my vote right now), but Diggit has the closest thing I have to a “townie feeling” toward someone else. All of you who are voting against/FOS-ing him–I’m watching you stack up and taking notes for my scum list.

So what do you say, Diggit? I’ve gotten pretty much everyone else to tell us who they’re voting for. Maybe you’ll pick someone I’m suspicious of, and I’ll start to trust my gut a little more. Then again, maybe you’ll pick someone else (like me), and my good feelings toward you will all be shot to hell… :wink:

2115

[QUOTE=Rachm Qoch]
By the way, what do you mean when you say:
:confused:
Nothing happened to Idle other than that he became a walking ghost and didn’t know it.
[/QUOTE]

Yeah, right.

And BTW I started my workings with my list, then used Idle’s as a filter. I reversed it on here because there’s f-all way to coroborate the list for you lot and because you don’t trust me.

In large part that is due to Idle.

And because as I keep saying IT IS WHERE YOU START> THEN YOU MOVE ON TO SEEING IF THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTS IT.

Oh and no Millet, I stopped doing my chart, largely when I started realising nothing I said was going to be trusted anyway, which I flagged days ago. The town can flipping well do its own research I don’t bloody care.

2116

[QUOTE=tirial]
Yeah, right.

And BTW I started my workings with my list, then used Idle’s as a filter. I reversed it on here because there’s f-all way to coroborate the list for you lot and because you don’t trust me.

In large part that is due to Idle.

And because as I keep saying IT IS WHERE YOU START> THEN YOU MOVE ON TO SEEING IF THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTS IT.

Oh and no Millet, I stopped doing my chart, largely when I started realising nothing I said was going to be trusted anyway, which I flagged days ago. The town can flipping well do its own research I don’t bloody care.
[/QUOTE]

I see what you’re saying, and I guess I can’t fault you for being frustrated. However, not wanting to help the town (or ceasing to help the town) makes you look less like you’re on our side. I trusted you up until today, for what it’s worth.

I’m still not sure what the list analyses are supposed to do for us. Idle wasn’t Mafia, and he wasn’t a Mason, so he had no actual accurate information. That list was based on his feelings about us. So is your list, unless you’re Mafia or a Mason. If not, then there’s no “secret information” to be rooted out of any lists, it’s just random.

I’m a little troubled by your phrase in all-caps, because you’ve been accusing me of doing exactly that. It’s called a confirmation bias. You start with an idea and then you look for everything that means you’re right–and ignore the rest.

2117

Three and a half hours to go; the vote count remains as it is above.

2118

[QUOTE=Gadarene]
Three and a half hours to go; the vote count remains as it is above.
[/QUOTE]

I thought we had one more day! The night ended on Wednesday, right? Thursday-Friday-Saturday-Sunday?

2119

According to Post 1986:

[QUOTE=Gadarene]
The day will end at 5:00 p.m. my time on Sunday.
[/QUOTE]

2120

:smack:

Clearly we all know where my head is.

Carry on.