Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler

The Game Room
2121

Actually I looked for cases against as well - the case for Rachm being town is not strong, let me put it that way. Thene I went through everyone to look for people they linked to. The fact that two of my strongest candidates turned out to have some interesting links was a bonus. If it hadn’t been supported I wouldn’t have bothered posting it.

And since you don’t think I am helping the town (What with going after fluiddruid, voting for Lemur866 and pointing out the remaining scum) let me put it this way - I am the doctor.

This means regardless of recruitment, there are at least 2 scum remaining from the start.

Out of eight players, I cannot have been scum from the start.
This means there are now seven potential mafia remaining.

In order for the masons to have stood a chance of winning, there needed to be three masons from the start. None have been killed, so I will assume at least three.

This means there are four people who are confirmed non-scum at game start.

As I’ve roleclaimed, three of them now know which four the remaining two scum must be hiding in (If they are at all intelligent they’d have followed Blastermaster’s reasoning and already knew my role. Lightnin’ blew it when he died - and yes my posts before then were frantically trying to get him to craft something in the nature of a defense as I had a bad feeling about his lynch).

I was not recruited. I suspect there has not been a recruit - however it may be possible.

If someone inside the non-scum at start group was recruited, then there is a 50/50 chance of finding scum in the remaining four citizens, but only 25% of finding one by voting in the non-scum at start group.

If one of the townies outside the non-scum group was recruited, that puts the odds of finding an original scum up from 50% to 75%.

If one of the masons were recruited, then frankly their first loyalty is to the masons not the scum - that’s in the rules. Assuming there are three masons and two pure scum, the mason/scum needs to wipe out at least one of the pure scum for a mason win. (If there are more remaining scum then that increases their need to get a scum lynched, and increases the odds of getting scum by voting in the non-scum at start group).

And as the doctor I can only be killed by town lynch, not nightkill, so I’m not entirely shocked that certain people are trying to make a really strong case against me. If you take me out, you take out the only person aside from scum who is guranteed to survive the night. This is true regardless of recruitment status.

Personally I think a townie win is unlikely at this point, but if the town doesn’t win I’d rather see a mason win than scum, even if I don’t benefit.

Our best chance of finding scum is voting in the group who were not known to be town at start. I am handicapped here, - I only know who I am. The remaining townies now have two pieces of information - who they are and who I am. Hopefully the masons have four, and the mafia only have 3.

However I strongly think that Rachm Qoch, and most likely Diggit, are two remaining original scum.

2122

(If there are more remaining scum then that increases their need to get a scum lynched, and increases the odds of getting scum by voting in the non-scum at start group).

Editing:

(If there are more remaining scum then that increases their need to get a scum lynched, and increases the odds of getting scum by voting in the possible scum at start group). I can run through the math if you like, but its pretty obvious.

8 players
1 doctor from start
3 masons from start
4 left.

4 original mafia = 2 left = 50% chance of getting scum by going in those four.
5 original mafia = 3 left = 75% chance of getting scum by going in those four.
6 original mafia = 4 left = 100% chance of getting scum in this group (Jackpot!)
any more is rather unlikely…

A recruit in the “town at start” group doesn’t change these odds - it raises the chance of getting scum by voting in the non scum at start group from 0% to 25%.

A recruit in the “outside this” group raises the odds.
4 original - 2 lynched +1 recruit = 3 left = 75% chance of getting scum in those four.
5 original - 2 lynched +1 recruit = 4 left = 100% chance of getting scum in those

(If there were six at start and a recruit then a) there are 5 left and we have already lost and b) Gad hates townies. Unfortunately b may be true…)

2123

Well… I know you’re kinda ignoring my posts during this day, but I’ll still post my answer to this:

  1. Your status as town’s doctor was pretty much public knowledge:
    a. On the day after your famous “reveal” (which I already posted during this day), I warned the town there had possibly been a recruitment. And that it involved the doctor since she had revealed herself. I neglected to tell where and who had posted.
    b. Shortly afterwards, **IdleThoughts **told us he thought he had located said post
    c. And at the end of the day he posted this
 d. And from then on on all his suspicions lists he gives us your name as suspected scum (with an asterisk to indicate you were recruited)

My (long-winded) point is this: Scum (almost certainly) knew you were town from then on in. Some other people (including IdleThoughts and me) knew and said it out loud as well. But you never outed yourself. And that would certainly have helped those who hadn’t identified you (which, most certainly, includes more townies than scum. After all, just one of them had to notice it to reveal it to the rest)

Additionally, I’m very surprised you didn’t at least give us a list of your night protects. Even though it’s unverifiable, it might help town to know and could (conceivably) help to strengthen your defense.

Therefore: vote tirial

2124

As you may have seen, I just cast my vote. As to who else might be on my list… well, for now it’s ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies. But, to be honest, my suspicion in that direction is waning…

And that leads me to my next point: I’m flattered you seem to trust me. But let me belabour my point of posts past: Don’t trust anyone but yourself! You have no way to verify my allegiance (short of my lynching or night death, and after IdleThoughts demise even that one isn’t certain)(okay, Gadarene, I’ll stop now) What I DO reccommend is this: look at past day’s events (especially in voteswings). Think to yourself what scum might have done in certain situations. Look at the people who voted and when they voted. That’s the way I found Lemur866. That’s why I “exonerated” SnakesCatLady.

And write your thoughts down. And post them so if anything happens to you someone else can follow up on your notes.

2125
  1. tirial seems to be using it as a starting point for her investigations. I tend to share BlasterMaster’s opinion about it: it has been as useful as fluiddruid’s farewell defense (or less) and I wouldn’t use it at all. But to each their own…

I won’t answer your second question; I just don’t think it would be proper :smiley:

2126

Yeah, I’ve actually got a decently long post coming up. And, for various reasons, I have to distrust you now anyway. My going back over the first few days has shone some light on some very suspicious behavior from you. I know you started the Lemur lynch, but you also started the percypercy lynch. And then you tried to convince us that it was a distraction from Lightnin’. Man, what I know now that I didn’t know then! It doesn’t look so good for you. There are still more shady characters in the game, though, and many of them suspect you right now…so I’m not sure that I want to touch that bandwagon.

I’m also going to ask what on earth you’re doing voting for tirial. I’m going to have to believe her roleclaim and give her another day. By the way, I’ve gone through the rules and couldn’t find the one that says the Dr. can’t be nightkilled. That seems like a game-breaking rule. If she has been recruited, we can always kill her later, but I can’t see why we need to kill her now.

Unvote tirial.

2127

As to why I’m doing, voting for tirial, it’s simple: I believe she has been recruited (and have stated so repeatedly).

As to why the Dr. can’t be nightkilled, it only applies as long as the Doctor constantly protects herself.

2128

Well, then, the Masons and the Dr. could just start killing everyone else. Tirial has a very good point there. If there are three Masons, then those four remaining town could simply plow through the scum, then the Masons could kill tirial. I don’t think there’s any way for the town to win now. Unless the Mafia finally get lucky and hit a Mason every night. I’m sure that’s already been said, but it’s really just hitting me now. :frowning:

Unless…a Mason has been recruited. I’m almost sure we’re screwed in that scenario, though, too. Or would that Mason want to out the Mafia at this point, out of loyalty to the Masons? It would require a sacrifice on his/her part, but hey, you win even if you’re dead, right? I’d much rather see the Mafia go down because a recruited Mason outs them than see them win, if it comes to that.

Oh, I feel hopeless now. My long post feels so insignificant. I’m still working, but my heart’s not in it.

2129

Ugh…first time we’ve ever gone out and left my daughter with a babysitter…home late…head hurts…so what’s the first thing I do? Scumcheck, of course!

Ok, if a mason were recruited (and let me bang on a key point here – unless they know who the detective is and can recruit him, I can’t see any advantage the scum get by recruiting until the last possible moment, therefore I’m all but certain that haven’t recruited yet), then I’m guessing all non-masons would be fucked. But I don’t think that’s the case just yet.

If I were scripting out the rest of the game, it would go a little something like this – At the end of today, Rachm (scum) gets strung up. Tomorrow morning comes with no kill, because of a recruitment (beats the hell out of me). Tomorrow we string up a mason (nesta? Cookies? Diggit? No fricking clue). Next morning, we wake up to find that another mason has been killed. That evening, we string up Blaster (scum). That night, the recruited scum makes a kill…let’s say it was a townie.

That would leave (if starting guesses are correct) one recruited scum, one mason, and two town.

Town lynches scum that night, we win!

Anyone wanna place odds on it working out that way?
Anyone wanna place odds on me not having any mistakes in this post which I’m not proofreading or spellchecking, since the baby just woke up? G’night all!

2130

sigh Everything is so damn complicated.

The smartest play that I can see is to unvote Diggit and vote Rachm Qoch. Others seem to be on Diggit’s trail, but they’re more antcy for Rachm, and those are the only two I’d be willing to vote for at the moment.

Now I’ll be praying that I survive the night (or praying that I die and that my death happens to reveal enough for town to pervail, but I think another town death at this point will pretty much seal our doom), and recalculate my case against Diggit in the cold light of morning. If he happens to die in the night, I have a hunch I won’t be long enough of this world to be feeling much :smack: at my persuit of him.

2131

Diggit I am ignoring you because I think you are scum - therefore a) I can’t persuade you of anything as you already know your case is false and b) you know you can’t kill me at night so you are going to try your best to get me lynched now.

And frankly I strongly suspect you could give me a definite list of my night protects - for at least two nights. Everyone else can use their common sense about who exactly I trust.

And also because you fail to read certain posts of mine - I replied to Millet in P2115

And yet in 2125 you state

Had you even read my post?

Millet to answer your question, the doctor can’t be nightkilled because I am self-protecting. (As certain people in this group already know). As I’ve stated I only know my alligence, not anyone else’s.

Hal Briston you make a good point, but the only way for the town to win needs all scum dead and at least one mason, if we have a 3 masons, 3 town 2 scum situation, which looks likely. Either way, if we get a scum today and there is a no-kill tonight it is probably the recruit, or the remaining scum trying to distract us from him.

I’d love a town victory, but I’m not sure it will happen unless the entire town starts playing brilliantly. So I’ll settle for anyone but scum winning - in practice this means masons who at least aren’t mafia (although given the ending of mafia II I don’t trust them not to also be werewolves… :slight_smile: )

2132

A revised vote count:

Working from 2103 - (votes after that time have post number against them.)

Current
3 – Rachm Qoch (tirial, Hal Briston,ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies 2130)
2 – tirial (Rachm Qoch, DiggitCamara 2123, )

Unvotes
Millet the Frail unvoted tirial 2126
Cookies unvoted Diggit and voted Rachm Qoch 2130.

Still to vote:
Blastermaster, Millet and nesta.

(And frankly, Cookies, I would probably switch to Diggit if he got close to being lynched, as I can make a good case against either Rachm or Diggit.)

2133

I’m going to vote for DiggitCamara, and I hope ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies and tirial might switch over. I’m a lot more convinced Diggit is scum than Rachm Qoch.

I think it’s very possible that tirial was recruited, but I think the chances are high enough that she wasn’t that it would be really stupid for the town to lynch her right now. If she wasn’t recruited her protection still throws a bit of confusion into the mix for the Mafia.

I’m still not sure about Blaster Master, but I don’t think I’d be able to get enough support for him to be lynched today even if I was certain he was scum, so I think I should vote where my vote might make a difference.

2134

Here it is. The view from the first three days!

All right, I’ve spent HOURS yesterday and today, going over pages and pages of posts, poring over my voting records. I’m done with Day 3 and can’t do any more before the deadline–I have to be somewhere at 3. I’m really, really frightened that I’ll be killed tonight, since apparently no one thinks I’m scum. If I am, kill Cookies and Blaster. They have been in all the wrong places at the wrong times.

Blaster: Same thing as before. I posted a lot of details on his role in Projammer’s lynch/fluid’s save, and it gets worse and worse going back. For example, he worries about a Mason victory early on and starts talking about killing Masons. WTF? And later, he keeps pushing for the breadcrumb to be Projammer, specifically.

Cookies: A long list.
Day 1 - Cookies votes nesta, and nesta votes Cookies. nesta unovtes. Cookies keeps her vote on nesta all day. Lightnin’ votes nesta later but the wagon never gets rolling. nesta might be town or Mafia, I don’t know.
Day 2 - Cookies says that the early percy voters are likely scum. Diggit and tirial and are the early voters. I can’t vote for them right now because I think there’s a very good chance both are town. Early voters does not equal scum, in this game, so far. Cookies votes Projammer. Cookies later pokes dnooman and Projammer for not voting for each other.
Day 3 - Cookies gets up in my grill for suggesting that the players who thought Kyrie’s death was “lucky” might be scum. She was one of them. Her scum list, starting out, is fluid, CaerieD, and Projammer. (A lot of us had that same list, me included.) She votes Projammer at the end, when it’s quite crucial. Also, during this day, someone brings up “calling a nightkill a lynch” as a scum tell. She readily admits she did this once, 100 posts ago, with a link to prove it, and that it’s bogus as a tell, since she’s not scum.

The funny thing about this is that they were my original FOSes, because both used random.org. How funny is that?

Take this as you will, but if I die, keep looking at them. I feel I’ve almost been able to exonerate Rachm Qoch. Looking back, he and Diggit have had chances to help scum that were not taken. They started the Lemur lynch together. And all of my scum reads on Diggit are a little too bold. Mafia really haven’t been very bold in this game, and Diggit’s been almost too obvious. Starting the percy lynch, being the first person in the game to cast a vote, being the second vote on dnooman’s lynch, NOT saving fluid when things were close…I’m leaning away from him again. Nesta looks better, and Hal has been all over the map. The fight between them seems fishy, but neither looks really scummy anymore. It almost looks staged, but then I can’t point to any instance so far where the scum have gotten into personal fights. Hal looks worse, but only because I feel like he’s hardly said anything of substance in the game. He’s all over the map, and I hardly have any notes on him.

As for tirial, I’m inclined to wait and see. I’m not comfortable with that vote. The recruitment may or may not have taken place, but another night won’t hurt us. I am so lost on that one.

I wish these notes were more organized, and I wish I’d covered more ground. If I die, maybe someone can keep it going. It looks like I have a few others willing to vote Blaster or Cookies with me, but there’s so little time. I don’t want to vote for any of these three, though. I’m sorry I’ve been so scattered today. I’ll be able to check back before sundown and make my vote, if ANYONE will vote with me.

2135

The shape of the town is now such that none of us are living in a reality-based-voting- community where evidence matters. But for the one or two of you who still care, here’s a couple things to look at before following tirial’s lead:

  1. She accuses me of suspiciously siding with Lemur. When I conclusively prove her wrong, she remains silent. A reasonable and honest person would admit her mistakes, but she remains strangely silent. Apparently she’s right about one thing – nobody does their own research in this town and you can make up anything about anybody and get away with it.

  2. For some reason, she says nesta’s misattribution about me, and Diggit’s misattribution about her is evidence against me. Huh? You can’t make a mistake in this town. The cherry on top though is that she originally accused me of conspiring with Blaster here somehow, then says “whoops, my mistake, I was really talking about Diggit”, and nobody ses the irony.

  3. As many pixels as she pretends to devote to accusing Diggit, she never makes a case against him or votes him – just a lot of hot air. Why would she make a case against a fellow mafia? She keeps harping on how I’m banding together with Diggit, when there’s no evidence of this whatsoever. But when I ask her to explain so I can defend myself, she’s silent again. Maybe because she knows that if she lays a case out, I’ll prove her wrong as I did with Lemur.

  4. By her own admission, she uses Idle’s bogus “logic” (which provably is 90% most likely wrong) as confirmation that I’m mafia. Throw the ten-sided die, and if it comes up 1 though 9, that confirms I’m mafia???

None of this matters, though. Vanilla townies are almost certainly in the minority. Masons realize that the best chance of winning is by securing their victory. Masons and mafia alike see the same chessboard I do and know that the best shot to win is to carve up the rest of the town, then make their move. I can’t say I blame them though, because it’s in their best interest and I’d probably do the same thing if I were them.

It doesn’t matter, as all of this is falling on deaf ears as the remaining votes are most certainly Mason, and I might as well accept my fate.

2136

Except if she’s recruited and they kill a Mason tonight, there is no tomorrow. If there were five original Mafia, they win tonight. If there were four, the best we can hope for is a 3-3 tie, which presumably would go to random.org. Do the math.

2137

Speaking of irony, kudos to you, doctor, for using me as cover when I was saying all along, until today, that the doctor wasn’t recruited. You then appropriate my position, pressing the notion that the doctor wasn’t recruited, and turn around and make me the bad guy.

Well done!

2138

Yes, it’s looking grim. This doesn’t change the fact that if we don’t lynch a Mafia today our chances of winning are almost nill. tirial’s recruitment status doesn’t change this.

If there were 4 Mafia at the start, and they have recruited, and we lynch Mafia today, that will put us at 4 town vs 2 scum tomorrow. If there were 4 and they haven’t recruited, and we lynch scum, and they recruit, that will put us at 5 town vs 2 mafia tomorrow. In those situations the town still has hope.

Now if there were 4 scum and they haven’t recruited, and we lynch town, and they recruit, that puts us at 3 vs 3. If they don’t recruit in that situation, then it’s 4 town vs 2 scum.

If we aren’t sure tirial was recruited, but agree that she hasn’t been scum all along, then picking one of the other likely candidates gives us the best chance of winning.

2139

If, by some chance, it looks like a bandwagon forms toward Blaster, then I’d be fine with switching. Blaster and Rachm are both scum, and it doesn’t matter to me which order they get taken out.

We have less than 90 minutes until sunset, however. If things stay as they are, Blaster will certainly be voting for tirial to tie up the vote and try to save Rachm neck (or would be sacrifice fellow scum, maybe?), so there will be quite a bit riding on your vote, Millet. I don’t envy you.

2140

Like I said a couple of posts ago (in response to BlasterMaster’s similar idea that there is a chance she hasn’t been recruited)

I would still be willing to do that. But, barring a no-kill-night, I am more convinced than before she was recruited. The thing is: we know now there was one attempt to kill Idle Thoughts. (which, until recently, they attributed to a block) Why didn’t they try to get him or tirial again?

We know that, at most, they tried to get tirial twice. Since she has been self-protecting any night-kill attempt against her would have yielded a non-kill night.

But why wouldn’t they target IdleThoughts again? After all, they must have had a reason to kill him in the first place. But they left him for later, apparently. Why?

In my scenario, the first no-kill night (the third night, if I remember correctly) would have been against tirial. After that she would have been recruited (because she revealed her status during the fourth day). During that day, at the very end, Idle Thoughts revealed what had happened. That night they decided to kill Idle Thoughts, because he probably would try to get her lynched during the day. That attempt failed. And during that day Idle Thoughts latched on to SnakesCatLady. Since he obviously was going to pursue that target for the rest of his (or her) existence, they chose to leave him alone. After all, he would have either have left tirial alone after that or (if he achieved his goal: to lynch SnakesCatLady) he would have disredited himself and any further lynch attempts on tirial that he started would be disregarded by the town.