Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler

The Game Room
2281
  1. Diggit, I am not building a case between you and Rachm. I am building a case that you yourself are scum.
  2. Diggit, Rachm comes into it because a known scum, on the block DIDN’T VOTE for you when by doing so he could have saved his own neck and got a townie lynched, and doing so was vital to the scum cause. The only reason I can see for this is that you are also scum.
  3. Diggit, Rachm abandoned his case against you when it looked like you might get lynched. If we follow Hal’s reasoning that doesn’t look good.
  4. The only masons who should claim, if they are masons, are Blastermaster and Diggit. I think its unlikely either are, but a false roleclaim from either would make things much easier at this point.

BTW Millet, I ran the odds on the game if there were three masons. It looks as though they can end the game now, with help from a townie or myself.

If there are three masons by the way, I would suggest we end the game now.
If I voted with you (you’ve got more information than I do) that gives you an instant majority.
If we started with 4 scum there is one original left, + 1 recruit. If they recruited a townie that is three masons+one doctor v. two scum.
If the recruit was a mason that is 3 masons+1 doctor v 1 scum.

Basically, we can swing it on numbers - please note the scum are outnumbered regardless (this applies even if we started with 5 scum).

This means that if mason was recruited:
Day One: We lynch a scum on their information. (Gadarene may end the game here as the remaining scum is mafia/mason so masons win)
Night One: A townie gets killed.
Day Two: Masons win

If not a mason recruit:
Day One: We lynch a scum/townie. 2/3 chances.
Night One: mason 3/6 or townie 1/6 goes.
Day Two: We lynch a scum (50%1 in 2/50% 2 in 2)
Night two: mason 3/5 or townie 1/5 goes
Day 3: We lynch the remaining scum if we missed before.
Masons win.

If you are concerned that I am recruited, then if any one of the other townies support you, you don’t actually need my vote and it seems likely they will.

If the townies are prepared to accept a risk of lynching for a non-scum win (I am prepared to accept a Day 3 lynch in this scenario if required) then the mafia can’t win.

Regardless of these odds however, things are much easier if we lynch a scum today regardless.

2282

Interesting:

Diggit was the source of the Honest scum analysis on Lemur866 - I had thought it was Hal. P1813
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8608128&postcount=1813
P1828 “SCL was being framed” That’s a pretty safe bet for a mafia to make.

Also Idle Thoughts, our watchman and confirmed townie thought Diggit was scum pretty consistantly:
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8580545&postcount=1559
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8597507&postcount=1741
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8609282&postcount=1834
And I don’t think you were joking when in http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8609813&postcount=1842
you pointed out you didn’t vote for fluiddruid when fluid actually got lynched. You told me then I should have argued harder.

2283

I’m going to be out and about for most of the rest of the day; I’ll take stock of things when I return.

2284

… and was just as suspicious, just as consistently of you and SnakesCatLady…

…which tells us what exactly?

2285

That after me asking repeatedly you still haven’t answered the questions raised by Rachm’s vote yesterday.

2286

Well, I’ve reviewed the thread as much as I’m going to get a chance to. I wish I had another day or two, but I guess the time limit is there for a reason. I didn’t have enough time to really look at anyone other than DiggitCamara and Blaster Master. I really hope one of them is scum or we’re in a very bad situation today.

I need to head out here in an hour or so, so I wanted to get this out and give people a chance to respond.

A lot of my suspicion for Blaster Master started with the way he handled the Kyrie Eleison death and breadcrumb. Millit the Frail nailed some of it in her post she linked to earlier. I think it’s incredibly scummy that he denied so vehemently that fluiddruid was the breadcrumb, but didn’t choose the only other obvious one, which was the anti-FOS of him. Pretty much all his posts about the breadcrumb seem very off to me.

Combine the way he handled the breadcrumb with his actions the last few (in-game) days, and he feels really scummy to me. I’ll admit I didn’t like the way he went after me yesterday. It feels like he took Hal’s bait and hoped everyone would run with it.

Unfortunately I ran out of time and didn’t get a chance to look through many of Blaster Master’s posts. I did get through many of DiggitCamara’s, though, hoping to find what is making Hal so convinced he’s town. I’m not seeing it. His actions and posts feel very scummy to me. I would vote for Diggit right now based on what I found, but Hal’s strong conviction has given me pause.

Hal, did you get a chance to find anything about Diggit to demonstrate why you have such faith in him?

Here are the major points why I think DiggitCamara is scum:

  • Day 1 he started the percypercy bandwagon, and kept it going. In the few games I have experience in it seems to me that a “lynch the lurkers” call usually comes from scum. During day 2 (post 609) he says he was suspicious of the percy wagon, and that she was only his #3 suspect, and Lightnin’ was his #1, but he didn’t unvote her.

  • Day 2 he spends a lot of time putting suspicion on dnooman for his role in the percy wagon.

  • Day 3 he does vote for fluiddruid. The votecount at the time he voted was fluid 5, Projammer 4. This is a point in his favor, but maybe he had given fluid up as a lost cause and wanted the town cred by voting for scum.

  • About the breadcrumb: in post 974 he says he looked back through Kyrie’s posts and didn’t see any significant breadcrumbs. I think this struck me as really odd at the time, and still does. There were two things that could have easily been breadcrumbs: going after fluid like she did, and the out of place anti-FOS of Blaster Master. Also, in post 982 he says he thinks she investigated NAF, casting doubt on fluid being the breadcrumb.

  • Early in day 4 he votes for Lightnin and tried to convince others to do the same. His vote post was 1180. He makes a case for voting Lightin’ over fluid because Lightnin’ has brought less to the game.

  • He continues in day 4 to push for Lightnin’. In post 1349 he says if fluid turns out to be scum that his top FOS is Lightnin’. This strikes me as setting up an easy Lightnin’ lynch on day 5, which is what happened.

  • On day 5 in post 1420 he posts about the post outing the doctor, and says the scum must have seen this post and recruited. With how the game has played out, and Lemur866’s insistence that we lynch the Doctor, this seems fishy.

  • On day 6 he voted for Omi over his blow-up to SnakesCatLady. The vote post was 1673, where he says he doesn’t think Omi is scum but voted because he will enjoy the game more with Omi out of it.

  • Also on day 6 he is the first to vote for Lemur866. Again, a point in his favor, but I notice Rachm Qoch was the third to vote for Lemur. Rachm could have been following Diggit’s lead.

There’s more I made notes about, but I really need to head out soon, and if I don’t hurry I won’t have a chance to vote. I’m going to hold off and hope Hal has a chance to see this before I need to leave.

Sorry that post is such a mess, but I was in a hurry.

2287

No, my reasoning is that scum are consistently voting for each other. Rachm’s abandoning of his case going against the scum’s pattern.

[game off] For anyone who isn’t also in M4 and so may not have seen my note, I’m away from home limited PC access today and tomorrow. Also, I’ll have family in town Monday and Tuesday, and have no idea if I’ll be around or not. I’ll make my best effort to punch in when I can. Finally, Diggit is town, Blaster is scum, and due to his pushing the anti-Diggit case so hard, I’m guessing tirial probably was recruited after all. That is all. [game on!]

2288

You’re making this decision incredibly hard. I just don’t see any evidence of Diggit’s innocence, and he’s seemed scummy to me for a long time. Reviewing his posts just reinforced this for me. Blaster Master also seems scummy to me, but not to the same degree.

The only way I think you can be so sure of Diggit is if you’re on the same team. I don’t think you were originally scum, but you could be now. You say tirial might have been recruited based on his pushing for Diggit’s lynch, but you’re pushing about as hard as possible for Blaster Master’s. I feel like I could be making a huge mistake even considering taking your word for it that Diggit is town.

If I vote for Blaster Master, that pretty much seals his fate. If he’s town, we could lose right then if there are two original scum left. Even if there’s only one scum left it puts us in a really bad situation tomorrow.

I really have to go. I’m already running really late.

Very well Hal, I’m going to vote Blaster Master. I hope I’m not being suckered here. If he comes up town, though, I’m going to vote for you to the end.

Goddamnit, I don’t feel good about this at all. I won’t have a chance to find out the results until later tonight. Bah. I should have thought about this before making plans.

2289

I’m sorry: do you mean the questions arising in this post? Because I stopped trying to answer as soon as I noticed you were quoting me out of context and distorting any meaning I had put in my original posts.

Could you rephrase your questions again? (If they were contained in that post) And if it’s another post, could you please refresh my memory? And, if it’s a link to one of your posts, you know, the ones with quotes out of context, could you please rephrase those questions? Providing proper context, please? Thank you.

And, when you look at Idle Thoughts posts, please remember that his original suspicion of me stems from my disagreement on fluiddruid’s living testament. I posted:

in this post. A bit overdramatic, of course, but ultimately not entirely wrong-headed, I think. (or, at least, SnakesCatLady would think)

He answered, of course, this and never again brought up an additional reason to distrust me…(Well… not that I noticed. But please, feel free to bring them up. Only, this time please: refrain from your famous P### notation, do not bring up quotes out of context and, if possible, provide a link to the original post)

2290

Actually, being a newby, that was just my first mistake. I bought into the reasoning behind it: lurking scum are at an advantage, since they simply don’t generate information for anyone else. However, since then, I have come to notice that in a game like this different players simply have different styles (and real time obligations). Thus, an “obvious scum tell” isn’t that obvious any more. And still: you can’t encourage scum to lurk. Imagine if zuma had played the way he did during the entire game? I, at least, would have no idea about him.

Newby mistake. I saw a vote swing and pounced! (pounced! I tell you!) Added to that, he made a ludicrous assumption about Lightnin’ (he might be a mason! Based on what?) By now, of course, we know it was a town on town vote. And his ludicrous assumption simply that: a ludicrous assumption.

Quite right. I was mistaken. But tirial actually convinced me (with one post, by the way) of my mistake. And thus I voted for fluiddruid.

Again, I learned something about myself: when I convince myself I apparently stop looking at my initial reasons, forget them and use them implicitly (the initial reasons to suspect Lightnin’ were:

  1. He voted for me
  2. He posted little
  3. With little content
  4. He defended himself badly
  5. He was the object of the first day’s “vote swing” (partially initiated by fluiddruid)
  6. I didn’t like him (in the game at least). Mainly because he stated he didn’t like the game as soon as he was challenged)
    Stupid reasons, I’d agree now. (And will find myself indulging in them soon, no doubt)

I’ve asked tirial several times (no hope there, anymore) and I’ll ask you: how would you have handled (as a presumed townie) if:

  1. You notice the Doctor’s outing (by herself no least)
  2. The next day is a no-kill day (with a potential recruitment. And without certainty of survival to the next day)

**SnakesCatLady ** posted she wasn’t going to continue defending herself because of his blow out. Omi had already shown he couldn’t handle being questioned in the game. (By the way: he pulled himself out of M4 after that episode. So I guess he saw some truth in it as well). I simply saw him as a player who couldn’t handle the game and who could potentially make some moderator stop the game.

And that’s the point at which I felt I really had come to my own, in this game. I finally spotted scum. And from then on, I spotted (correctly) two townies: Idle Thoughts and SnakesCatLady.

I was actually seeking a similar post from tirial, for a while. One where I could actually address points that were the source of my “scummy look” in the eyes of some player other than myself. Thank you.

2291

As it turns out, it looks like you could’ve saved yourself the stress. The final bell sounded hours ago, and we’ve had several no-shows.

Unofficial Final Tally:
4 – Blaster Master (Hal Briston, Millit the Frail, DiggitCamara, nesta)
1 – DiggitCamara (tirial)

Cookies? Blaster? What happened?

Well, either way, I’m sure to piss off the family I’m visiting by peeking back here every five minutes to see if Gad returned yet. Gotta see if I’m writing checks my suspicions can’t cash. Don’t think that’s the case, though.

Damn, I hope that’s not the case…

2292

Methinks Blaster didn’t come back because he had nowhere to hide. (Mehopes.)

Anyway, no strategy, but I can still give my “if I die tonight” speech: if I die tonight, it’s been lots of fun playing with you all. I don’t know that I’ll ever have the time to sink into one of these games again, though, so I’ll see you around the Dope. :slight_smile:

(The suspense…it burns…)

2293

Gahhhh! I’m sorry y’all. We went to a friend’s birthday party and then decided to catch Ocean’s 13, and I forgot to vote before we left.

If there is still time to vote, count me in for Blaster.

2294

Sorry all, had a bit of a personal crisis and, of course, it comes at a bad time for the game. I thought it didn’t end until tonight. Oh well. Looks like we’re gonna lose.

2295

Bah. I stop by home between hanging out with the parents/siblings and heading out to bar to help a buddy celebrate his birthday just to find out the results, and no one has been lynched. I know asking won’t help, but Gadarene, if you could post in the next ten minutes I would really appreciate it. This is driving me crazy.

BTW, my parents and siblings are now also anxiously awaiting the results of today’s lynch. Or maybe they were just humoring me since I spent so much time recapping what has happened in this game. I’m going to have to tell them that humoring me is a scum tell.

2296

Things to do while waiting for Gadarene:

  1. Drink.
  2. Run some more scenarios in my head, only to realize they’re all dependent on assumptions I can’t make.
  3. Eat.
  4. Re-recap the game to my husband, who is pretending to be amused to make me happy.
  5. After having posted a photo today, wonder what all of you look like, check old photo threads, find Hal and his daughter (CUTE!).
  6. Try to study, get too anxious.
  7. Sleep. (The only one I haven’t already done…until now.)
2297

I’ve got some pics (with a wide range of hair-length) up on MySpace, and the link is in my profile. I still need to update it with ceremony pics though.

2298

<taps keyboard>
any news yet?

Please?

2299

Hey Gad! Get offa the Hispaniola board and post the update!!
(Hmm? Stalking? What?)

2300

Cool! I actually kind of like the “froofy hair” one. :slight_smile: And your dog looks a lot like my dog I had growing up…very cute.

(No one should take that as pressure to provide pictures though…I was just saying that I’d gone looking for what’s out there!)

It’s been 19 hours since dusk, so I wonder if the Mafia are going ahead and talking. There are two at least, so we’re not going to be waiting on one person to make up their mind…should be a short night, right?