Crap! My personal voting deadline is in five minutes, and I still have no idea who to vote for. I’m tempted to just vote for Cookies, knowing she’s reasonably safe anyway, but that’d be a cop-out.
I’m…mmmm…let’s call it 85% certain that either tirial or nesta is the recruit. Which one though, I have no idea.
Oh, hell with it. My most humble apologies if I’m wrong about this: vote tirial.
Be back on tomorrow night for the results. Let’s hope it’s for the victory party as well.
Problem is you are wrong, but I have no way of proving it.
The only other suggestion I have is that I don’t selfprotect tonight - instead I protect a mason. That way, if the mafia kill me they prove my status, and if they go after a mason they’ve got a 50% chance of being blocked. Kill a townie, and they’ve still got to face two masons tomorrow.
At this point in the game, having two masons in is probably more important than having the Doctor.
And BTW, please actually build a case against me not based on things said by Lemur866 and Diggit.
(And discount Idle Thoughts as a source of information - he may be confirmed town but he is not reliable. See SCL and others.)
I’m home now, and have decided not to worry about that project until tomorrow morning, so now I can devote some time to this game again.
On the drive home I thought about it a little more, and came to these conclusions: I don’t think the mafia would choose not to kill given the circumstances, which means the recruitment happened two nights ago; and I don’t think a mason was recruited since a mason wouldn’t have killed Millit.
That changes the order of my suspicion list that I posted earlier. tirial and Cookies have been repeatedly changing places on my list today, but I don’t think the mafia would have recruited tirial two nights ago since she already had so much suspicion built up against her as being the recruit. Recruiting the doctor was the only obvious recruitment choice if the recruitment happened after the three no-kill nights, but even then we have the fact that Lemur was pushing for lynching the doctor. I’ve had enough doubts about tirial being the recruit that I decided I needed to try to bring up what I consider the more likely possibility.
The most likely recruit that makes sense to me is Cookies. I suspected she might have been recruited yesterday when her first post asked if it was time to lynch Diggit, and then shortly after that she voted for him. Even though I went into yesterday thinking Diggit was scum, I still found Cookies and tirial’s early votes a little suspicious. With only four votes required to lynch, and yesterday being the key day for the recruit to show their true colors, voting early like that wasn’t in the town’s best interest. Also, this late in the game I find hastiness a little suspicious in general. Those votes point to both Cookies and tirial as possible recruits, but when Cookies unvoted and then failed to revote at all, it made me even more suspicious. I think Cookies was hoping that I might vote for Diggit so that she and Blaster Master could jump on and have a better chance at getting a townie lynched today and winning right there.
I also think Cookies was a very likely recruit two nights ago. She has been both mostly trusted and below the radar for most of the game. The same could be said of me, and I understand why people are suspicious of me for the same reasons, but I know I wasn’t recruited and Cookies seems like the other obvious recruitment choice two nights ago.
If I’m wrong that the recruitment was two nights ago tirial is the likely recruit, but if the recruit did happen two nights ago recruiting tirial would only make sense if they counted on the no-kill night clearing her. I do remember the tone of her posts changing after the three no-kill nights, and suspected her as the recruit then. Once it came out that Idle Thoughts should have been killed one of those nights, though, it seemed a little less likely to me that she had been recruited. Now that we had another no-kill night I find myself doubting she was the recruit simply because it would be a little more tricky than I suspect they were willing to risk. Perhaps it’s my experience as mafia in the Mafia2 game clouding my judgment, but there really weren’t any complicated strategies during that game. Everything was rather straight-forward, even storyteller’s approach to becoming trusted. Maybe I’m wrong and this round was more sophisticated, and I wouldn’t put it past Blaster Master to try something like that, but I think it’s less likely that they would set up some complicated ruse than recruit someone low key and trusted.
I could also see Hal being recruited due to the trust he’d built up, but he was key in swaying at least my vote towards Blaster Master. I suppose a recruited scum could do that to build up support, but he could have easily remained silent and hoped for the best. I think Cookies or tirial are much more likely than he is.
Diggit would have been a very risky recruit going into yesterday. If there was anyone that was going to be lynched other than Blaster Master it would have been him. Once again, I don’t think they would have gone for such a risky recruit when someone safer was available.
I’m going to vote ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies. I think she’s the most likely recruit, and her actions yesterday and today seem scummy to me.
The only thing I will add by the way is that the scenario I was concerned about is now occurring:
Day: lynch Doctor (-1 townie)
Night: Kill mason/townie
Day: left with three players:
case 1: 1 scum recruit, two masons - a mason win.
case 2: 1 scum recruit, one townie, one mason and no one to back up a roleclaim.
At this point, the townies and masons will probably lose.
The lack of voting was pure RL oversight on my part. It would suck for the town to lose just because I lost track of time and went to see a movie, and that is what will happen if I’m lynched and you turn to be town. It would still suck (though slightly less-so imho) if you’re scum and just using my RL brainfart as the backdrop for the scum’s final push.
Nope. I wanted to keep the momentum going. I’d had my eyes set on Diggit for a long time, long before any of the possible times of my alleged recruitment. I also see absolutely nothing wrong with vote-switching as a principle this late in the game.
Trusted and below the radar, eh? :dubious:
Well then, this is an interesting development, and forces a delay of my vote a bit, until I see if anyone else comes after me.
When is the vote deadline again? The timezone conversions are messing with my head.
If I’m reading Hal’s earlier post correctly, the deadline is tomorrow at 12:15pm Pacific, right?
I was going to wait to post this but due to PC trouble I’m hoping to get it up now before my PCs totally dies.
If the recruit went off on the last no-kill night I would think the recruit was probably Hal. However there is one extra piece of information I need to add for the town.
Concerning the recruit, there is one piece of evidence possessed by myself and one other person in the game. This particular piece is of value only if I am lynched and my status confirmed, which is why I haven’t brought it up earlier. However it implicates Diggit, and to a lesser extent Hal.
For the last two days I made a case that the recruit was most likely to have occurred on the last no-kill night. Its logical, fits with what we know (down to one scum, Omi’s earlier post etc). Then I watched to see who agreed with it and who argued against it. By strengthening the case as far as I could it displayed those who would not be dissuaded that the recruit must have occurred in one of the three no-kill nights. Therefore it was logical for most in the game to assume the recruit took place on that last no-kill night, or at least concede the possibility. However it was possible for someone in the game to argue that it didn’t and not concede it was possible for it to occur, quite truthfully because they knew it didn’t.
I never said what I did that night. I let people assume and when Blastermaster (who was scum) said that the doctor was self-protecting that supported it nicely, meaning that anyone who was town should concede the possibility at least.
I didn’t self-protect on the no kill two nights ago.*
I blocked on Hal.
Diggit, thanks for your continued insistance the recuit occurred earlier than that night, and refusal to accept it may have occurred on that night[SUP]1[/SUP]. To the town - once my status is confirmed please hang him tomorrow.
And for what its worth.
*I thought it was an obvious night for a recruit if they hadn’t already made it. However, if they had already recruited, only the scum in the game would know it was a failed kill. And if they knew it was a failed kill they would insist the recruit must have happened earlier.
If the recruit had happened that final night, the main reason to insist it happened earlier was:
a) to make Diggit look less suspicious - who’d recruit someone the town obviously wanted to lynch?
b) to get me lynched.
Either way the main proponent for this is also the main beneficiary - Diggit.
[Sup]1[/Sup] P2320, P2328, P2349. Basically read Page 47: Hal and Nesta assumed the second, Cookies hasn’t commented. Diggit insists it must be the first.
Since we can’t confirm your story unless we kill you, I’m curious as to why you didn’t at least mention it while Hal still had the opportunity to consider your post?
Alright. Fsck it.
I don’t see any choice but to try and force a tie and hopefully catalyze some further conversation, because I’m not happy about being the one carrying the decision and not getting any feedback from anyone else about tirial’s last post.
Vote Diggit.
I’m going to be watching the thread closely over the next 45 minutes, in case nesta or anyone else does anything sneaky at the last minute.
No time for anything pretty right now, unfortunately.
Vote Count
2 – tirial (DiggitCamara, Hal Briston)
2 – DiggitCamara (tirial, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)
1 – ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (nesta)
I’m exercising my gamerunner’s discretion to extend the Day until 9:00 a.m. my time on Monday. If there’s still a tie at that point, it will be decided by random.org.
… and, off we go on a tangent again.
Do you realize, that whether or not you blocked has no bearing at all on the recruitment?
Why would anyone think this makes any difference at all? Why would the mafia recruitment/non-recruitment change depending on tirial’s blocks?
tirial: OK, I’ll bite. Let’s suppose you really believe there was recruitment on the night I have saying all along. Why would anyone recruit anyone but you? And, before you start telling us that a Doctor recruited had no value to scum, remember: when they recruited you, you had a pretty good town record, added to your Doctor status. You would (and, apparently, still are), pretty much unkillable, as in: you won’t gather a majority during the day to be lynched, and you won’t be killed by night.
Why would they recruit anyone else at all? There was still a DoGooder at large.
So: would (presumably intelligent) scum risk to recruit, by chance, a DoGooder? Or would they like the juicy Doctor better? The only reason you suddenly changed your perspective on that point is because it’s the only way you could cast doubt on being recruited and keep on pointing your finger at me.
Let’s review my main points to lynch tirial:
and yet didn’t vote against Blaster Master. Millit’s vote was the second against Blaster Master!
4. How many, outside the masons, knew Millit was a mason? And I can assure you she was killed because she was a mason… else, it would have been game over, wouldn’t it?
5. Distortion of facts to incriminate me (quoting out of context, specifically). Again, to emphasize it: How can anyone reconcile the wilful distortion of quotes of another player with a townie attempt to hunt down scum?
Funny. A vote against me clears someone completely from being scum.
She would have born no responsibility herself (for the lynch). An indistructible (during the night) townie would have gone down. She would have been able to take out the only townie who had directly suspected her (nesta).
The good thing for town: the list becomes narrower still.
Ok whew.
First of all, unvote Diggit.
My finger is on the trigger for tirial, but I would like to hear from nesta and Hal if possible first.
Beautiful. Truly beautiful.
If you have been recruited, this would translate into:
I fear I wasn’t entirely clear about tirial’s last post. I wanted to make this point:
If tirial was recruited, it wouldn’t matter who received her “protection”. If she protected, Gadarene, for instance, it would have as little effect than if she protected The Moon. And it would be equally unverifiable in all three scenarios. The person (or thing) protected would never know it had received said protection.
So, actually, we don’t know if there was a kill attempt during the last no-kill Night. We don’t know if there was a recruitment. We don’t know zilch about it. Hal doesn’t know about it.
And, from what I can understand, tirial’s argument is… kinda weird:
Scum know, as tirial points out, if there was or if there wasn’t a kill attempt on one night or another. They know if they tried to recruit, if they voted no-kill, if they voted to kill and who they voted to kill, etc. etc.
Now, as far as I understand, tirial is saying:
What I don’t get is this:
The way tirial describes it
… or, in other words the scum told us there had been no recruitment on this, more recent night, because they felt compelled to tell us when the true recruitment had happened… because… well… 
Right, I have spent 5 days carefully creating a coin toss between myself and the final remaining scum. This is because:
a) If I go out, he goes out tomorrow
and b) If he goes out on the coin toss tonight all the better.
I thoroughly expected to be dead before he started pulling the case apart, however if he argues back while I am alive, I run the risk that he can get the town off his tail. The only logical move I have at this point to ensure a town win is to vote for myself, which is an odd situation, but is brought on purely because apparently the GM has changed the rules to postpone the coin toss AFTER the day ended.
Considering your views on players voting for themselves Gad, I find it fascinating that you would put me in this position.
Although it does remove my chances of being alive at the end of the game, I would be grateful if players would vote for me. Once my status is confirmed please hang Diggit tomorrow and ignore everything else he says.
I don’t get it. At all.
When did the recruitment happen, then, according to you?
a.) If on the three-Night-no-kill-streak, the most likely suspect (so far) has been you
b.) If not, it’s someone else (probably not you)
Apparently you, somehow, deduce I’m a member of the Mafia 5 days ago. 5 game Days? 5 "real days? (I’m guessing game Days, because 5 real days takes us to this game Day. And Blaster Master was lynched on the preceding Day, and you reference him as somehow important in the post where you voted against me).
… How did you “spend 5 days carefully creating a coin toss”? Granted, it would have come to a coin toss today, but… how did you “create” it? Even if you were referencing, somewhere, your “save” of Hal… where does it get us even near to 5 days… or 5 Days… or whatever?
Color me extremely confused.
Actually I’d been thinking about this since the end of that nokill night and started implementing it then. When I realised I couldn’t get you directly as you will ignore arguments you can’t answer, and had carefully managed to get the town to assume I was recruited using Lemur866’s logic, I decided that a one for one trade was fair enough. The best I could get between us was a coin-toss, even if I had to post earlier than I wanted.
I am town. I lose nothing if I am lynched and take a scum down with me. If its the last scum, that’s a very good trade. You are scum. You can’t afford to go down as you cost your side the game if you do. Gadarene’s extra time has removed my chances of being “alive” to see you swing, but as long as you do the town should win.
When did I think the recruit happened:
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8685458&postcount=2368
I am not restating my post again for you.
And since you wonder when I thought you were scum, I thought I’d made that clear from pretty early on, and if you didn’t notice it when I was going after Rachm, you really weren’t paying attention.
And I’m not restating the case against you again - we’ve been over that for the last three game days.
That’s that, then.
To the others: Do you understand tirial’s post? Can you explain it to me? Because it simply doesn’t make sense. And, apparently, **tirial **won’t be explaining it further (not to me, at least).