Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler

The Game Room
2341

Ok, as I said, I think that tirial has been recruited. However, I’m certainly willing to hear alternate theories.

tirial, it was following your leads and ideas that lead me to go after both Rachm and Blaster. I know scum have consistently voted for scum this time around, but it was your analysis of Idle Thought’s posts that directly lead to at least two scum lynchings, so you’ve got a proven track record here. If we were to remove the possibility of you being the recruit, who would you suggest we go after? How about if we remove the possibility of Diggit being the recruit (which I find to be the case – why would scum recruit the player under the most suspicion?) – do you have any other ideas/suspects?

2342

[QUOTE=Hal Briston]
Ok, as I said, I think that tirial has been recruited. However, I’m certainly willing to hear alternate theories.

tirial, it was following your leads and ideas that lead me to go after both Rachm and Blaster. I know scum have consistently voted for scum this time around, but it was your analysis of Idle Thought’s posts that directly lead to at least two scum lynchings, so you’ve got a proven track record here. If we were to remove the possibility of you being the recruit, who would you suggest we go after? How about if we remove the possibility of Diggit being the recruit (which I find to be the case – why would scum recruit the player under the most suspicion?) – do you have any other ideas/suspects?
[/QUOTE]

One, but revealing who that is also means revealing who I think the masons are. I am not willing to do that.

Look at it this way:
2 masons
1 doctor
2 townies.

As far as I know the recruit is one of the townies, but I can’t name the two I consider townies without risking revealing who the masons are to the remaining scum. As long as I don’t say anything all he knows is that he and I are not masons, which gives them a 2 in 3 chance to hide.

By the way, thank you for raising that analysis about Idle Thoughts. Its raised an interesting aspect about the last of the three no-kill nights. I’ll also point out that Diggit isn’t the player under the most suspicion - I have been for the last few days.

2343

[QUOTE=tirial]
I’ll also point out that Diggit isn’t the player under the most suspicion - I have been for the last few days.
[/QUOTE]
I don’t know about that. Before today, you’ve had a total of three votes cast your way. Diggit has had 12. Even if we only look at Days 7-9, he still has garnered more votes by a seven to three margin. It’s safe to say that Diggit is under the most suspicion.

So let’s assume that Blaster Master wanted to avoid the obvious recruits (while we also assume that BM did the recruiting the other night). tirial? No good. Recruiting the doctor is exactly what would be expected. Diggit? Another bad choice…under far too much suspicion.

So, I pose this to both tirial and Diggit: With the assumption that the above is true, which of the three remaining players (I won’t even ask you to remove me from consideration) pings your scumdar?

I know you already stated you didn’t want to name names, tirial, but look at it this way – the only thing the recruit knows for sure is that (s)he’s the recruit – the possible mason pool is still four players no matter what any of us say.

Gotta vote sometime…I’m just trying to see if any of the others are in need of a good look.

Actually, while we’re at it, there’s no need to keep it to just the two I mentioned. nesta? Cookies? Care to indicate where your suspicions are heading?

2344

[QUOTE=Hal Briston]
(snip)

Gotta vote sometime…I’m just trying to see if any of the others are in need of a good look.

Actually, while we’re at it, there’s no need to keep it to just the two I mentioned. nesta? Cookies? Care to indicate where your suspicions are heading?
[/QUOTE]

Sorry… can’t really help you there. As far as I can tell, a new “late” recruit would have minimal interaction with scum, anyhow, since they would have been told their new affiliation but only would have had been able to “talk” during last night. Sadly, their recruiter had been lynched by then.

nesta: Improbable. Yesterday his vote was the “key” vote, the one where the vote against Blaster Master gained absolute majority. I doubt any recruit would have cast that vote.
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies: She was gung-ho about lynching me at the onset of the day. However, once I pointed out that her reasons to distrust me weren’t really solid, she relented. And I honestly can’t see a recruit relenting under the circumstances.
Hal: Though I might see situations where scum might lead off votes against scum, I simply can’t see them holding on to a vote that long, actually endangering their new-found (and only) comrade

… add to that that among these candidates there must be 2 masons, and that I simply can’t see a recruited mason killing their fellow mason under the current configuration, I simply don’t see a good candidate among the three “uncontested” players.

2345

I suppose I’m leaning more towards tirial at the moment, but I’m about as far from confident as possible.

There was an almost palpable (at least to me) shift in my awareness of her and what she was saying since I returned from getting hitched over Memorial Day weekend. As I was experiencing the “palpableness”, I rationalized it away as likely being due to a suite of non-scummy circumstances.

[ul]
[li]Fewer players left equals increased prominence of each individual player.[/li][li]My attention had been distracted and I was more aware of her because I was more engaged in the game again.[/li][li]Some of her observations and analysis were in sync with mine (wrt to Diggit), which has been quite the novelty in this game, and something I couldn’t help but notice.[/li][li]She replaced me on the Hispaniola[/li][/ul]

Looking back now, there is at least some room for the possibility that what I was “feeling” (for lack of a better word) was the ground being oh-so-subtly shifted in the efforts of a long-con, building trust by agreeing with me on one hand, and justifying that trust with influencing my vote toward Rachm, who turned out to be confirmed scum.

2346

[QUOTE=Hal Briston]
I don’t know about that. Before today, you’ve had a total of three votes cast your way. Diggit has had 12. Even if we only look at Days 7-9, he still has garnered more votes by a seven to three margin. It’s safe to say that Diggit is under the most suspicion.
[/Quote]
Diggit hasn’t had most of what he says discarded, played half the game with everyone assuming he was recruited and nearly been lynched.

[Quote=Hal Briston]
I know you already stated you didn’t want to name names, tirial, but look at it this way – the only thing the recruit knows for sure is that (s)he’s the recruit – the possible mason pool is still four players no matter what any of us say.
[/Quote]

Actually its not. From Where I stand the recruit knows:
a) Who they are (townie recruit)
b) that I am not a mason.
That removes two players from the pool, leaving them to find 2 masons in a group of three.

If the masons remove me from their recruit list they will also be left with two (Hopefully the same two - or I’m looking in the wrong direction.)

I can see two scenarios, but they both point at diffierent people.

  1. A recruit the night before last. I think I know who the recruit would have been if it was a recruit the night before last, but I can find no scum tells in his posts since that time so I can’t build a case.

  2. If Diggit was recruited, it would make little sense to recruit him on the night before last as he was under severe suspicion. However he insists the recruit took place in the three no-kill nights. If it did then he and I are both back under suspicion. However note that it was Diggit after that night who started agreeing with Lemur866 to lynch the Doctor if the doctor claimed, purely on role. That’s also when he stopped giving me any credit for the fluiddruid lynch and started saying it was Idle Thoughts.

Problem I have is that I know that the way the votes go I am concerned this will happen:
Day One - lynch townie (probably doctor), resulting in
Night Two - kill mason
Three players left. At this point both scum and remaining mason claim mason and we are left with a 50/50 chance that the townie will go with the right one.

As I said, I’ll go for any non-scum win, but 50/50 chance the scum will pull a win off is too high for my liking.

And Cookies, I will point out that I haven’t been agreeing with anyone - since I’ve played the last few days with the entire town assuming I was recruited, the only way I have been able to play is to point out references - and I still got Rachm. How many times have I told you to do your own research?

2347

[QUOTE=tirial]
And Cookies, I will point out that I haven’t been agreeing with anyone - since I’ve played the last few days with the entire town assuming I was recruited, the only way I have been able to play is to point out references - and I still got Rachm. How many times have I told you to do your own research?
[/QUOTE]

First of all, I haven’t been assuming you were recruited for the past few days, or I should say that the other 3 players have spent just as much time as the object of that particular assumption. I have been looking closely at that possibility about you for the past few hours.

Secondly, the “agreement” I was referring to was our both being consistently vocal about Diggit. Manipulation aside, differences in logic and analysis that result in the same vote/suspicion boil down to the vote/suspicion, not the varios paths that each individual took to get there.

If you want to throw manipulation back into the mix, that’s fine. But I have not been manipulating anyone. Have you?

2348

[QUOTE=ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]
If you want to throw manipulation back into the mix, that’s fine. But I have not been manipulating anyone. Have you?
[/QUOTE]

I’ve already pointed out I’ve been focusing on facts because no one will believe a word I say.

And as far as Hispaniola goes, you’re well aware I got invited by Mal when you said you were dropping out. I honestly don’t see how that applies to this game.

2349

[QUOTE=nesta]
(snip)

I’m not sure what to think about tirial and the points Diggit has made. I’m still having a hard time accepting that the mafia would choose not to kill. The only reason they would do it is if they were really desperate and thought it was their only chance. I can only see this happening if they recruited tirial earlier, but even then I’m not sure they would risk it. Their odds of saving both Blaster Master and the recruit going into day 9 was better if they had killed someone.

(snip)
[/QUOTE]

Well… let’s look at the situation from the scum’s point of view (providing, of course, you’ll grant my tirial recruitment theory). In that case, at the start of Day 8, things were looking good for scum: the previous Day + Night had not only seen 3 townies go down, but the only (apparent) townie who even considered tirial as a plausible recruit had gone down. And the Nightwatchman was gone. Granted, the masons still were around, but they hadn’t been a threat so far and the scum were bound to hit one of them, soon.

Let’s look at the end of that Day, however.

The day had been a catastrophe for scum. Not only had Rachm been lynched, but almost all votes of the town had gone against scum! Their entire membership had been in danger of being lynched!

On top of that, all of a sudden a lonely townie (me) had started to point, insistently, his FOS at tirial, to the point that she was forced to declare her role. But not even that dissuaded him! And even though two scum had survived, both had heavy doses of suspicion loaded on their shoulders!

I can easily see that, in this situation, they tried to convince the town that the recruitment had, in fact, not happened early in the game. After all, Blaster Master was pretty much doomed. * Their last hope lay in shifting suspicion away from tirial.

*DOOMED, I tell you, DOOMED! Or, if you insist, in danger of being lynched.

2350

[QUOTE=tirial]
I’ve already pointed out I’ve been focusing on facts because no one will believe a word I say.

(snip)
[/QUOTE]

Facts? :dubious: Facts like this one?

When/where did I do that? (as far as I remember, I gave you credit and, when **SnakesCatLady **asked me why I didn’t give her credit, explained why) Why would I try to take away your authorship from that? (it happened before the recruitment scenario)

2351

[QUOTE=tirial]
I’ve already pointed out I’ve been focusing on facts because no one will believe a word I say.
[/quote]

It doesn’t, which is why I included it in my “non-scummy” list of random things that could explain why I suddenly seemed to noticed you more. It was an unrelated point of common interest. I’m very glad that you were able to sub for me. I felt bad about over-extending myself.

2352

bah

None of us are necessarily believing each other.

2353

[QUOTE=ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]
None of us are necessarily believing each other.
[/QUOTE]

Fine, but from my POV, I’m not defending myself that hard because

  1. Over the last few days I’ve said everything I’ve had to say on that. Since I was allegedly recruited, I’ve stuck largely to facts, contributed to the lynches of Lemur866 and RachM, and agreed that I am aware I will look very suspicious once the final scum was lynched. Despite having another potential (and to my eyes more likely) recruit night just occurring, there’s not much more I can do to change minds.

  2. Also, as the Doctor there are three people in this game who have a stake in removing me simply for that role, in some cases regardless of scum status:
    a) The recruit - wants me out because he can’t win while I am in (the best he can get is a last day tied vote and a cointoss).
    b) Diggit - if he’s not the recruit, wants me out anyway and has been blunt about it. (I also don’t see him looking at anyone else)
    And c) possibly the masons: if the masons are playing for a mason win not a town win, then they need a townie dead today to get it - if we lynch the scum we get a town win. (I’ll point out I think the masons playing for a sole win would be bad as it opens the chance for a scum win again)

Now to be brutally blunt, with one, possibly two votes automatically against me and one, possibly two players who will insist I was recruited regardless of the truth there’s not much point in protesting innocence because the opposition either already know or don’t care that their allegations aren’t true.

However if the recruit was the final no-kill night, then as I’ve said, I am down to a choice of two candidates. One looks somewhat scummy, the other doesn’t at all and pretty much never has. The obvious choice for the mafia to recruit on that night would be the second, but with no clear tells I’m reluctant to vote.

I would suggest for the good of the town by the way, that people post more - its unlikely that the recruit will slip and make a tell if they aren’t posting much.

2354

[QUOTE=tirial]
I would suggest for the good of the town by the way, that people post more - its unlikely that the recruit will slip and make a tell if they aren’t posting much.
[/QUOTE]

I totally agree, and still feel somewhat dubious about nesta for that very reason, as I stated earlier.

2355

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
Facts? :dubious: Facts like this one?

When/where did I do that? (as far as I remember, I gave you credit and, when **SnakesCatLady **asked me why I didn’t give her credit, explained why) Why would I try to take away your authorship from that? (it happened before the recruitment scenario)
[/QUOTE]

On Day 5 before the third no-kill you gave me credit. After the third night and Day Six your posts then went to crediting Idle Thoughts and saying it was a reason to trust him.

Day 5
P1432
P1435
The third no-kill night…
Day 6
P1683 - why don’t you check who voted first on Day 3? This is typical of your posts after that no-kill night.

Anyway, you aren’t my sole suspect anymore since there is known suspicion towards you. The mafia would have done better on the last possible recruit opportunity to recruit the other surviving townie.

2356

[QUOTE=ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]
I totally agree, and still feel somewhat dubious about nesta for that very reason, as I stated earlier.
[/QUOTE]
Agreed. It seems to me that if the recruit was made the other night, the two best choices from the scum’s point of view were myself (which was not the case) or nesta.

Basically, it comes down to this for me: I strongly feel the recruitment was made the other night. tirial is the obvious target, and the scum knew that. So, either they played it safe and recruited nesta, or they pulled a double-bluff and recruited tirial anyway.

Those are the only two I can make any real case for. Any chance either of you want to put on that “I got recruited by the mafia and all I got was this lousy T-shirt” shirt sitting over there?

2357

[QUOTE=tirial]
(snip)

Day 5
P1432
P1435
The third no-kill night…
Day 6
P1683 - why don’t you check who voted first on Day 3? This is typical of your posts after that no-kill night.

(snip)
[/QUOTE]

:smack: I hereby retract my second, and wrong, attribution of the fluiddruid lynch to Idle Thoughts.

(I still think he’s townie, though) :stuck_out_tongue:

2358

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
:smack: I hereby retract my second, and wrong, attribution of the fluiddruid lynch to Idle Thoughts.

(I still think he’s townie, though) :stuck_out_tongue:
[/QUOTE]

… and on second thought:

In the post you quoted I wrote

(bolding mine, obviously, but by mine I mean I didn’t bold it originally)
And I was referring to this post where Idle Thoughts, early during the third day said

among other things.

That was the “anti-fluiddruid movement” I was referring to. Which didn’t mean he brought it to its successful end (that, obviously, should be credited to you).

Even that is probably wrong, since there were suspicions on fluiddruid’s shoulders from Day One.

I still think, though, that “started the anti-fluiddruid movement” sounds better than “started the anti-fluiddruid-movement-though-actually-he-just-revived-it-and-leapt-off-it-before-tirial-brought-it-to-its -successful-conclusion”.

YMMV.

2359

Feel free to ignore this post.

It’s just a little “Note to self” kind of thing to remind me that this day ends tomorrow at 3:15 pm. I won’t be here until later that day, so I’ll have to get my vote in before I leave work today at 8:00 pm.

2360

Sorry I haven’t been more active the last couple real-life days. A project that’s been way behind schedule and is due today got dropped in my lap yesterday, and I’ve been spending pretty much every spare second I have trying to both get what done I can and polish it up enough that even if it doesn’t work at least it doesn’t look as not-done as it is.

I’ll try to say something more substantial tonight, but right now the most likely recruit I can see is tirial, followed by Cookies, Diggit, and Hal in that order.