Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler

The Game Room
1001

Okay, I thought I’d made myself clear but obviously not by all of the confusion I’ve caused. Let me try again. Imagine we have Townies A and B.

Townie A accused Townie B of being scum.

Townie A is killed by the Mafia.

Everyone says, “Ohnoes, Townie A was suspicious of Townie B! He must have been killed for getting too close to the truth.”

The town lynches Townie B.

Rather than getting rid of one townie, the Mafia managed to get rid of two. If the Mafia was doing what you’re suggesting, then it would look like this:

Townie A accused Townie B of being scum.

Townie B is killed by the Mafia.

Everyone: :confused:

Sure, they might decide that Townie A is scum and was trying to get a townie lynched, but that’s an awfully complex manipulation. I see simpler, more subtle tactics like the first scenario as being more likely. I don’t think this is a strategy that’s going to be used every night, but I do think it’s one we should be wary of, which is why even if I can see some arguments against fluiddruid, I’m not willing to cast my vote in that direction right now. It just seems too close to a scum ploy.

I feel like I’m arguing myself in circles trying to look at this from every angle, though. I don’t know, I hope that at least made what I’d said before make a little more sense.

1002

I understand your reasoning now. Thanks for the explanation.

1003

Gotcha. For what it is worth, in my seasoned (all of 1.2 total games) Mafia experience, I’ve seen more lip-service and general chatter supporting the 2nd of your examples as being more likely.

1004

This was a reply to CaerieD and I have to say I agree…only in MY case she had been on the screen for a long time and her post (which you’re responding to here) made her almost equal (in my mind) suspicion to that of fluiddruid.

This is my fear why I’m still alive and wasn’t killed off last night (after all, I was wrong about dnooman). But then again it could also be because I’m spot on with every one of my suspicions and it’d be TOO risky to bump me off. You just never know with this game and each kill just brings more questions and conspiracy theories.

This game is weird because I find myself agreeing with players who I also have suspicions of (although less suspicion than others)…so that leads me to believe that the scum are doing a good show of fighting with each other in here to throw people off.
The whole Kyrie and fluiddruid case just strikes me as having too many chances and ifs.

Yeah, there IS a chance that fluiddruid is town and that Kyrie was just luckily guessed as the detective but it relies on a lot of coincidences.

It seems more probable that either:

A. Kyrie investigated fluiddruid and found her to be scum. Thus his vote.

B. Kyrie never investigated fluiddruid and didn’t know one way or another but voted based on personal suspicion and the mafia, either picking between the only two people who voted spot on (Kyrie and Snakescatlady) or picking Kyrie because Snakescatlady is also scum, bumped him off figuring he may be the detetive.

In both of the above cases it would work out that fluiddruid was a mafia player AND also give a possible explanation how the mafia knew (or suspected) him being the detective.
However take a lot at the adverse side. First has to be the case that Kyrie never investigated fluiddruid. THEN the case has to be that fluiddruid IS, in fact, pro-town. THEN has to be the case that the mafia randomly and luckily chose to kill the detective. AND THEN the case would have to be that we, the people, IF IT DID RANDOMLY TURN OUT TO BE A HIGH PROFILE TOWNIE, would act this way.

Just seems to me to be far too many ifs and long shots.
Again, it IS POSSIBLE all those things are the case and fluiddruid is town. But when you look at all the mounting factors…it doesn’t seem probable and, in my opinion, the detective is the only thing we have to go on to help aid us in choices.

1005

So have I, but I’m not sure that it’s entirely true when you actually look at who got killed when. I don’t think my theoretical Mafia tactics are used all the time, but it seems like it would fit some of the ploys I’ve seen in this game and the last. I’ll be very interested when this game ends to go back and see who was who for the sake of future scum-spotting strategy.

1006

When does this “day” end?

1007

Here you go.

1008

Thanks! I guess when I read that Kyrie was dead I just stopped reading!

1009

Wow, is this thread dead or what?

1010

Tick tick tick. :slight_smile:

1011

Well, you could go back to throwing accusations and suspicion at me…

Just kidding, Idle. It’s kind of adorable.

To get things shaking: Vote Projammer. I still buy the arguments against fluiddruid, but we’ve got two more days. I may come over and join the crowd…we’ll see.

1012

Bless you, Millit. I was wondering how we were going to break the awkward silence.

1013

If I have the votes tallied correctly, we have:

fluiddruid (Omi no Kami, tirial, Snakescatlady, IdleThoughts)
Projammer (Lightnin’, Millet the Frail)
Snakescatlady (CaerieD)

Players with no vote: fluiddruid, Come to the Dark Side…, Hal Briston, nesta, Projammer, Lemur866 & DiggitCamera.

1014

I’m not trying to rush anyone to vote; I just would like some discussion!

1015

I’m going to be out of town tomorrow through Sunday afternoon. I should have internet access, probably in the evenings, but just in case I figure it’s time to vote.

Vote fluiddruid. As I said earlier, I think the chance that she was the breadcrumb is better than other options, and I haven’t seen anything to convince me otherwise. She has seemed scummy to me from the start, and a cursory review of her posts has only confirmed this. She had a hand in keeping the Projammer bandwagon from going through both days, and has continued to defend him today. Those facts make me comfortable with this vote.

I still heavily FOS Projammer. He’s been rather quiet since the spotlight has been on him. I’m still convinced he’s scum. He’s my pick for tomorrow unless something really changes.

A new FOS: CaerieD. She has also felt rather scummy since the beginning, but I was cutting her a little slack since she did have a hard role the first time around and made a mistake that got her killed early. Her posts, especially today, have lumped her in with fluiddruid and Projammer. If they are scum, I think we’ve hit the scum trifecta.

1016

They’re totally the scum trifecta of the moment. I think we’re on to something here, as long as we don’t get derailed again. If one of these three doesn’t get lynched today, then we seriously have to look at whomever pulls us off course. And then we’ll have the fourth/fifth/(God help us) sixth.

1017

That’s an excellent point, and an angle I had not yet considered. It seems fairly clear to me that Kyrie was killed, not because she was thought to be the detective, as I don’t think anyone saw that one coming, but because it was emminently clear that they wanted to frame **fluiddruid ** either as a bluff, or a double-bluff. Alternatively, why didn’t they kill SnakesCatLady, would it not have accomplished the same effect? Of course, it’s entirely possible that both are citizens, but you do raise a good point… if they had no reason to suspect **Kyrie ** of being a power role, at least as far as I can tell (of course, if I imagine they thought she was the doctor, they almost certainly wouldn’t have tried to kill her), why did they choose her of SCL?

Is it possible SCL voted for fluiddruid as a simple, “disguise our tracks” mafia scheme, to simultaneously keep her safe from would have put her right in the thick of either a townie lynch (dnooman) or a deciding vote for either a fellow mafia/another townie (though, I’m still inclined to think Projammer is scum); meanwhile, she gets to obfuscate her voting record by being able to say “see, I voted for mafia, but no one believed me”.

Of course, it is also entirely possible she is town, and they simply killed **Kyrie ** because they thought it would be more convincing, or they chose randomly between the two.

That said, this isn’t enough for me to put the FOS on SCL, but it is enough for her to be demoted from “leaning town” to “Big fat question mark” on my list, simply because there’s too many variables there… is fluiddruid scum, is projammer scum?

1018

Just FTR, you don’t have everyone listed; RQ and I also have no vote. Although, in my case, I made it clear that my intentions were, and still are, to vote for fluiddruid; though I freely admit that Projammer is looking more attractive by the hour with his sudden silence after being put so squarely (well, roundly, I suppose) in the noose. I only unvoted because I feared the potential of a speed lynch. Being that we still have two days, and fluiddruid is only three votes away, I’ll wait until at least tomorrow evening to recast my vote.

1019

Well, I really don’t suspect that the votes will go away from fluiddruid, regardless of her alignment. Of the trifecta there (with which I happen to agree), fluiddruid does have the strongest evidence against her. That said, I can’t see a mafia member, assuming she is scum, putting his neck on the line to save her. Thus, assuming fluiddruid is lynched and comes up scum, I’d be more concerned about who tries to stop the lynch of one of the other two in the trifecta tomorrow.

That said because even if fluiddruid is a lost cause, the other two are not yet, and I’m sure the mafia will be scrambling tonight to figure out how to draw suspicion away from their companions… will they try to frame a townie, or a mafia not in the trifecta to make him look squeeky clean and live 'til the end, or will they try to put more evidence against one of the candidates to try to make it look like they’re trying too hard to get them lynched and double-bluff us?

Of course, if fluiddruid ends up not being scum, I guess we’re back to square one.

1020

I disagree - I think it was partly because Kyrie wasn’t following the herd on the main bandwagon, and was making a strong case against fluiddruid. He’d also made it clear he wasn’t going to be dissuaded. Anyone who could be a leader would be a threat to the mafia. Also, if they didn’t think Kyrie was the Detective, his posts may have made the real Detective check fluiddruid out that night, or the next. If fluiddruid was scum, that would put him at risk of discovery.

And besides, P589 shows NAF’s voting record, and we didn’t exactly follow that up the next day (the Projammer/dnooman bandwagon didn’t seem to use NAF’s vote as a driving force). If Kyrie wasn’t the Detective, would we have even looked at his vote if he wasn’t around to press the case?

Probably because SnakeCatLady didn’t defend her vote as emphatically - Kyrie posted a second time saying he knew there was an argument against the vote, but was standing by it. As far as I can tell SnakesCatLady voted once, and didn’t press her case. If fluiddruid is scum, she’s less of a threat, if he is town she won’t really point suspicion at him as much.

I think today has been useful regardless. If fluiddruid isn’t scum, then he isn’t the breadcrumb either. Some posters have had very interesting reactions (I will say I am still looking closely at Lightnin’, after his rush to lynch earlier today) and several voting patterns are clearer.