Yes, unless they’re the Do-Gooder. No.
It’s my understanding that they have no choice (although, I don’t know, so don’t FOS me for guessing. : p).
I also didn’t know that if they recruited someone, it would give up their right to kill someone that night too.
It’s in the rules. 
(See handy link below!)
Crap, so the “no-kill night” isn’t quite as good news as I first thought. Oh well, onward and upward.
Damn. A no-kill night gives us no information at all, does it?
Okay, I’m going to come out the gate with guns ‘ablazin’. We were wrong about Projammer, but that only leads me further to believe in one person’s guilt in particular: Lightnin’
As was discussed yesterday, I find **Lightnin’**s “speed” vote for Projammer in post 933 highly suspicious. In hindsight, we now know that Projammer was a townie; is it possible that Lightnin’ confused the non-existent bandwagon with one the mafia was planning to start on him?
Okay, that’s a bit of a stretch, he could have just misunderstood, right? Wrong… In post 936, he admits he misunderstood, but then stands by his vote. But that still doesn’t explain why, when he had misunderstood, he’d want to start the count down clock so early in the day. He continues to defend the position in post 940.
Worst of all, in post 942, he says:
This is in direct response to tirial in post 941 who said:
So here’s my take. Day One, Projammer was a convenient scape goat to take heat from Lightnin’, then when fluiddruid (another mafia, IMO) starts to get heat on Day Three from the potential crumb, Lightnin’ tries to start it back up again. Lightnin’ had me fooled on day one as a “newbie” making “newbie” mistakes; but I just ain’t buying it anymore.
Vote Lightnin’
FOS fluiddruid
Interesting tidbit for consideration: Omi no Kami had voted for fluiddruid yesterday, then unvoted and never voted again, nor has there been a post from him/her since that unvote.
Not quite.
Even though it’s possible that the mafia could have recruited last night; I think it would be a bad move on their part because, 1, there’s still another do-gooder which gives them a non-zero chance of attempting to recruit him and wasting it, and 2, there are precisely zero confirmed townies, which is when the recruitment is REALLY dangerous because it sudden turns all confirmed townies into possible mafia all over again. I can’t imagine they’d consider using it until at least either the other do-gooder is outed/killed or a mason or other power-role is forced to role-claim.
There is a 1/6 chance that the Night Watchman Blocked the kill, and since that’s random, the Doctor can conclude with 5/6 certainty that the person he protected was the mafia’s target last night and thus is fairly likely to be town (please don’t reveal who you protected). OTOH, why would the doctor protect someone unless he was quite sure that person was town? So I’m not sure that nets him much information
Unfortunately, carrying that logic farther, I can’t imagine the doctor has a strong enough lead on the night watchman (the only remaining role REALLY worth protecting), so that means he was likely self-protecting and, thus, the mafia now have a fairly high probability of knowing who the doctor is. :mad:
I had noticed that as well. Also, he hadn’t voted on Day Two either. He seemed fairly involved in the discussion up to the discussion up to that point, IIRC.
I don’t get this. I don’t get this at all. I NEVER understood the whole bandwagon against Projammer, nor why everyone was always so suspicious of him. I never had any suspicions or meter pings against him.
Same with Lightnin’.
I dunno, but my trust in you is starting to waver now even. Not much, but a little. Just because it seems to me for fluiddruid to be a shoe-in for being scum and just seems to me that anyone voting for anyone else (other then if they’re also scum) is shady.
That being said, my vote, without a doubt, who I voted for last round and for the same reasons I outlined and said last day: fluiddruid
{Color Removed}
The purpose of my vote is two-fold: 1, to make sure people don’t forget about his fishy actions yesterday, and 2, to make Lightnin’ defend himself and his decidedly anti-town actions. There’s still plenty of time in the day, so I’m not going to settle for a speed lynch on fluiddruid, despite my strong suspicion of her. That doesn’t mean I’m not very suspicious of her for other reasons and I’m plenty prepared to change my vote to her if no one seems to want to pursue Lightnin’. However, I’m not content to simply lynch mafia; I want to use the day to gain as much information as we can, which includes using the new information that Projammer was pro-town to analyze and try and get leads.
So, you were right about Projammer… if you’re looking at the same things I am differently, can you at least try to allay my suspicions of Lightnin’?
To me, simply saying you “don’t see it” can be just as much a scum trying to keep his hands clean as a townie who is just going on gut. That said, you’re still high on my likely town list, but I’m also getting a feeling that you’re not always forth coming with information, so I’m unsure what to make of that.
I sincerely hope the doc or nightwatchman got lucky, because otherwise this game just got a lot more complicated.
Vote fluidruid - for all the reasons I mentioned yesterday, repeatedly. Meanwhile, can we see what else we can find for the day after?
FOS Lightnin’ - for starting the Projammer bandwagon yesterday and the attempt to rush lynch.
I will be honest and say that ** Blastermaster ** and CaerieD’s votes were the last two that got percypercy killed on day one, and then killed another townie yesterday, so I’m looking pretty closely at you.
I will also point out that if you check the numbers, a town victory becomes impossible if we don’t kill a scum today. A mason victory is also under threat.
15 players left
4-6 mafia (assume 4)
4? masons. (otherwise they can’t win if there are more than 4 mafia)
leaves 7 townies, and 8 others - if the masons are playing for their own win the masons and mafia can out-vote the town.
Problem is this strategy won’t result in a mason win. If there are 5 or 6 mafia they can outvote the masons, or recruit one once the numbers of town start dropping or the block votes become obvious. They gain a member, the masons loose a member, they win on numbers.
I point this out because it became pretty obvious yesterday from the numbers that at least one mason was on the projammer wagon. If we want to win we can’t really split the town votes anymore. And frankly if some of the blockvotes that have been going on are as obvious to the mafia as Millit’s sheet makes them, the mafia may have done the maths as well and recruited.
Thinking about it, there are actually two likely doc-protect suspects - not because the doctor would know they were town, but because they are both likely mafia targets, so the effect of protecting one would give him a confirmed townie.
Day Two, Kyrie was killed for simply looking in fluiddruid’s direction and not being dissuaded.
I spent Day three throwing everything but the kitchen sink at fluiddruid, and Idle Thoughts did the same. I strongly suspect one of us would have been the target (we’ve both got some experience, we’ve both hammered fluiddruid - and pointing the finger at fluiddruid got Kyrie killed - and we both refused to jump to the Projammerwagon after Lightnin started that.) If the Doctor did the same working then he has just confirmed one of us as town (don’t reveal which!).
Otherwise he self-protected, which tells us nothing.
I suppose that it could be any one of the options above. More considerations:
As far as it being a blocked kill: The Night Watchman, in three nights of protecting, should have a 50/50 chance of blocking a kill overall. The Mafia wouldn’t know whether the player they tried to off is protected by the Doctor or the Night Watchman, and it would be pretty prudent to strongly consider the latter option. Thus, they absolutely don’t know they’ve got a strong lead on the Doctor, and it would be foolish for them to think they do.
As far as it being a recruitment: Damn, the Masons must be feeling pretty useless right now. It’s a very real possibility that the Mafia recruited. I wonder if the scum realized that last night was likely the highest probability they have of getting a non-Do-Gooder out of the random townies. Now that one known Do-Gooder is gone, I mean. I bet they did. So I can’t rule this out.
I’m wondering whether to focus on one of the usual suspects (fluiddruid or Lightnin’) or to look somewhere entirely new. Like I said, back to the drawing board. We can’t afford to be careless.
Oh, and I’m all up to date on my spreadsheet and will be keeping it up pretty much daily.
The Masons aren’t worth being worried about right now–we’re all going to lose if the Mafia keeps on winning. We probably shouldn’t be trying to uncover them. But anyway, I’m not sure I see anything. (Then again, I’ve been staring at that thing all weekend and am a little burned out.) Seven players of unknown status never voted for Projammer yesterday. What I do see is that Omi no Kami has never been part of the final vote. Care to say something about that, Omi?
Every vote fluiddruid has cast has been for a confirmed townie.
vote fluiddruid.
I am very suspicious of Lightnin’, and I am waiting to hear from Omi no Kami, but I am convinced fluiddruid is mafia.
I’m not - I’m trying to point out that they need to work with the town.
I haven’t actually looked for masons yet, because I wasn’t sure if the block I found were masons or mafia, and there aren’t enough close links between posters to find a second block.
Voting Block: here’s a hint, start with percypercy’s bandwagon and spider outwards, but you need to look at posts and reasons as well as the actual votes. I’d like independant confirmation on this, to be honest.
I noticed he didn’t vote yesterday. Omi, are you still around?
FTR, while it is intuitively 50/50, that is not correct. The probability that the Night Watchman will not block for three straight nights is 57.87% [P(~B) = 5/6; P(~B)^3 = 0.5787], which means the probability that he will block at least once over three nights is 42.13%. That said, each night is independant; therefore, the fact that he failed to block the first two nights has nothing to do with whether or not he managed to block on the third night and so his chance of blocking last night was still exactly 1/6. That’s why I said they have a good chance of knowing who the doctor is, running under the assumption that the doctor was self protecting.
True, but I’m still inclined to think that they’ll wait. If they wait until a mason or two is revealed, they get eyes into who the masons are, allowing them to focus more on finding the doctor and night watchman, or simply eliminating the masons to go for a quick victory. If they wait until the last do-gooder is revealed, then if there’s a night they think their target is likely protected, they can recruit instead OR they can use it to throw chaos into the mix when there’s two or three confirmed townies.
I agree. You and Idle Thoughts are the highest on my likely town list, which also means you two are the most likely to be doc protected (other than himself). However, because we can’t make any judgments about his playing style, we can’t say whether he trusted either of you two enough, and felt safe enough on his own, to put his stamp of approval on you.
Maybe they figured that 50/50 chance was worth it to get rid of one of the more experienced, pro-town, aggressive players and got caught. Maybe they also realized that and may have targetted someone they thought was less likely to be doc protected.
The problem is there is still the chance of recuritment (though, very a small probability in my estimation) and the probability that the night watchman protected, assuming the doctor did protect one of you, and you are pro-town, it’s quite possible that someone was recruited or someone else was targetted and blocked by the Night Watchman. I think the doctor can say with strong probability that who he protected last night is town, but it’s definitely not a certainty.
I figured I would pull some heat for switching my vote. I felt I explained myself, but unfortunately, I was wrong. Still, I have to ask, if we had killed fluiddruid, regardless of whether she had come up scum or town, do you think the town wouldn’t have unequivocably gone after Projammer and/or Lightnin’ today?
How do you get an impossible victory for town out of that? Yes, we’re already in a lot of danger, but I think we’ve still got a chance. With the night watchman and the doctor, I’m sure we can get at least one more blocked night kill. Let’s examine worst case for town:
15 players
5 mafia +1 recruit (I think 6+1 is way too unbalanced)*
4 masons (I also think more than 4 masons is too unbalanced)
5 town
If we get a townie today, and they get a townie tonight, that leaves us with 6 mafia, 4 masons, and 4 townies, or 6-7. Thus, even in the worst case we have one more townie lynch before defeat.
The most likely case IMO is 4+1 Mafia*, 4 Masons, and 6 town, which means we’d get two more wrong lynches if we lynch a townie tonight, rather than one. Either way, I don’t think a mason only victory is worth worrying about, because if the mafia wins, both the town and the masons lose.
Of course, in looking at those numbers, even if it isn’t worst case, we still only get maybe three total bad lynches. So, I’m going to give som consideration to not pushing for Lightnin’ and saving that for tomorrow.
- I say +1, because I’m assuming the recruitment hasn’t happened yet and the doc or nightwatchman blocked last night. However, I’m also assuming it will eventually be successful as there’s only 1 do-gooder left and they will probably try to target a power-role.