Hopefully Lightnin’, since Lightnin’ is number two on my scum list - admittedly a long way behind fluiddruid. The results of lynching fluiddruid followed by Lightnin would reveal a lot in terms of vote patterns (particularly from Day One) and hopefully give strong pointers to the rest of the mafia.
Because in the case of hard numbers, if the masons and mafia blockvoted together the town vote becomes irrelevant. If the mafia managed to convert one of the masons, that becomes possible. If the masons are voting pro-town that isn’t an issue, but I’m not sure they have been.
Okay… you’re right. I’ll go ahead and unvote Lightnin’, but leave a very heavy FOS on Lightnin’ for the reasons I’ve already outlined. I’ll also go ahead and say lynch fluiddruid since I strongly suspect both are scum, and don’t have much of a problem with the order in which they are lynched.
Idle Thoughts - I’d still like to see you allay my suspicion of Lightnin’, since you seem far less convinced he’s scum than I do.
While it’s possible they aren’t voting explicitly pro-town, I can’t imagine they’d be deliberately offing them either. Remember, they don’t get to talk at night like the mafia does, so chances are their plans are going to be a lot less intricate. Also, they have no reason to deliberately aim for the mason-only win, as they can share the win with the town. I think the pro-mason win is really only a problem if it gets to be late game, and the town know they’re outnumbered, they might form a bloc to take out a mason or two. Either way, there’s only about two or three non-mafia lynches left, so it would pretty much be suicide to deliberately be aiming for that win at this point.
Right, I’ve been using this chart myself - its the votes cast for confirmed townies. All votes are listed (I’ve checked against Millit’s chart and it looks pretty accurate) up to end Day 3.
The formatting will be knackered by the board so the poster’s name is on the left. +un after a vote means it was unvoted. T indicates Town votes, U indicates Unknowns. The first Total set is Undup’d (repeat votes count as one). The second results count all votes regardless. Where there’s only one set the poster made no duplicate votes.
Nope. Not gonna happen. If there’s one thing I’ve learned from this game, it’s that “defending” yourself just flat-out doesn’t work. No matter how you try to do it, it’ll be interpreted as being “too” defensive, somehow, and you’ll end up looking even more suspicious… so I’m not going to play that particular game.
Besides, I DID explain my actions, yesterday. If you didn’t believe me then, you won’t believe me now. In hindsight, I really wish that I hadn’t voted for Projammer- but I think he screwed himself with the unverifiable Do-Gooder claim.
I also find it fairly interesting that you cast the first vote on me, right at the beginning of the day, and use the fact that I voted the first vote yesterday as your reasoning. No FOS, just a vote to lynch. (On preview I see you’ve changed your mind on this already)
The reply I was composing said pretty much the same thing, and then I got called away to do actual work…ah, well. I’m surprised that we haven’t lost our focus on these two main suspects. After all, we were so, so wrong about Projammer. If either fluid or Lightnin’ turns out to be town at this point, I’m going to be looking at an entirely new set of suspects. Some of whom have seemed very townish.
I don’t want to rush the lynch, so I’m going to put an FOS on fluiddruid with the implication that she has my vote. I want to see what happens and hang out until at least midday before adding it officially. I’m also still FOS-ing Lightnin’, as both of the days I went against my instinct and didn’t vote for him, I voted for a townie.
Agreed. Once you’re on the suspicious list it seems impossible to get off; no matter what you say, it’s turned around to the point of absurdity to hurt you. Sadly, this is how I think we’ve managed to lynch all townies at this point.
Pretty much ditto for me. If people have specific questions, let me know. Otherwise I’ve pretty much said all I can, and hopefully my death will mean something in terms of analyzing people’s votes.
I want to vote to lynch fluiddruid, really I do. But (as I’ve stated before) it seems that the more sure I am about someone’s scum status, the more likely it turns out that they’re town. It’s getting to the point where I’m going to just start tossing darts at a list of names of those who I have little suspicion of and hoping to pick off scum…
Also, to address the masonic talk upthread, I can’t see them being much of an issue…yet. If we have another, say, two townies lynched, then it might be within their best interest to make a move. However, right now they’re just as screwed as the rest of us.
Of course, don’t ask me how they’ll go about “making a move”, since they have little more info than the rest of the town. I guess what this comes down to is a mason win is really a non-issue until we see a few more town deaths and a couple of scum taken out as well.
Such a nasty sting when stubbornness doesn’t work out in your favor. I latched onto Projammer back on day one and just couldn’t bring myself to drop him. The role claim certainly didn’t seem to have helped him (or the town) even though it was do-goodery and honest.
I am inclined to look closely at the chaos of vote and FOS fluidity, and to have a vote-off between Lightnin’ and Fluiddruid in the meantime. FOS history is not incorporated into either Millit or tirial’s charts, but I don’t know if it would be worth the elbow grease to produce. I can try later this evening though.
Lightnin’s exchanges on Day 1 were noisy. I found myself more inclined to just ignore those conversations as static, especially so early in the game, and I’m still not sold that they’ll produce more data to go on even in the bright illumination of hindsight. That being said, I do not have a problem with seeing either he or Fluiddruid washed clean in the revelation of death.
There are ways to defend yourself without being too defensive. I feel like you dodged tirial’s question yesterday, and I feel like you’re dodging it now by saying you don’t want to look defensive. I agreed with you that Projammer looked suspicious. What I don’t agree with is thinking he only needs one more vote, and starting the clock so early in the game. It has been said time and again that short days can only hurt the town, especially in the midst of the Kyrie crumb discussion.
That is, if there’s a general consensus from the town of “hey, we’ve gotten all we can out of the info we’ve got, let’s go ahead and see what happens”, then I won’t look at it with suspicion (case in point is the Autolycus lynch in M2). However, as you may or may not be aware, in that case, he was town.
It’s fine to want to vote, and even to be sure that your vote is on mafia. But for each day that ends early, that’s that many fewer posts from the scum to analyze, and that many fewer chances for them to screw up.
You did explain, but I don’t feel like you adequately answered all of the questions that were posed, particularly the one from tirial that I pointed out. I’m not looking for you to convince me your strategy is best, as differing strategies are not necessarily scum tells. However, I am looking for you to convince me that you thought your strategy was best.
Either way, you’re going to have to defend yourself, and I was hoping to get that started today to maximize our information gain and either get a good lead out of you as a lynch candidate for tomorrow or prove your innocence so we can go after a better person tomorrow (CaerieD?). But refusing to defend yourself at all isn’t going to help anyone.
This is a mischaracterization of my case against you. Voting first on someone is fine and, had he turned out to be scum, while I’d still be somewhat suspicious, I’d be a lot less suspicious and probably be hounding CaerieD instead. Your vote looked ill-reasoned, and eager to end the day. A vote without your reasoning makes analyzing it later difficult and poor reasoning looks contrived to create a vote. More importantly, as pointed out above, eagerness to end the day is often, not always, a scum tell. If you can support those actions, inside the knowledge that that’s how they appeared to me and others, I imagine you can reduce your reading on the suspiciometer.
So… I actually think that Projammer’s lynching might be good for us. My argument runs like this:
On day one we had what I call a “vote swing”. From lynching Lightnin’ the tide turned to lynching percypercy
On day two we had a contest of two townies from which to choose (Projammer and dnooman). This one didn’t move very much and, in the end, had to be decided by a coin-toss
On day three we had another “vote swing”. In three hours (just in time, actually), fluiddruid was saved in favor of Projammer’s demise
Now, what this shows (though not conclusively), is that the Mafia doesn’t much care which townie we lynch. And, in my mind, we need to verify whether or not they reacted on day one and on day three to the imminent demise of one of their own.
To me, the best result for tonight would be to have both Lightnin’ and fluiddruid at the top of the lynching lists. That way we’ll be able to figure out the Mafia’s strategy during the first three days a bit more.
I think most of the points have already been made, but I’ll still list the scenarios I can see:
Doctor/Nightwatch saved someone (yay, town!)
Mafia tried to recruit a Dogooder
Mafia recruited a citizen
Mafia recruited a power-role
Mafia recruited a mason
I list the possible options from best to worst (for town).
The worst option is in my mind a mason recruitment by the mafia. Not only will he/she probably reveal which other mason’s there are, but a mason claim by the mason/mafia will be undetectable by town.
I almost posted a similar bullet list earlier today too.
And in the sense of optimism, I’d say that the Doctor and Night Watchman possibilities deserve their own individual line, just like all of the scummy possibilities.
If I am right about fluiddruid’s or **Lightnin’**s lynchings, we could draw one interesting conclusion:
If it turns out the lynchee is scum, up to this point the mafia have been protecting their own by manufacturing vote swings
If it turns out the lynchee is not scum, we very likely have preferently selected town suspects and the mafia are sitting back and relaxing.
In the second scenario, if I were scum, I would have opted to vote for someone who is very unlikely to be lynched. That way, I could always say that I didn’t actually vote for a town lynch. And, after all, it wouldn’t even be needed. Town would be doing the mafia’s work for them.
IMO, the mafia attempting to recruit a do-gooder last night is a better scenario for the town than even the doctor or night watchman saving someone because not only does someone not die (like in those cases), but essentially they lose a mafia member they would have otherwise had. However, that’s a very small chance because I don’t think they tried to recruit, and even if they did, they only had a 1/15 chance of hitting him.
FWIW, I agree with the rest of your ratings though. And even though you didn’t separate them, I would put a nightwatchman recruitment slightly ahead of the doctor because he has a 1/6 chance to block, while the doctor has 1/15 at this point. As the game gets longer, the doctor will ultimately become more valuable.
Similarly, I hope the doctor blocked, because that means he has an idea who is town. Otherwise, he could have been blocking mafia for all he knows and now thinks he’s probably a townie.
Sure about that? If a mason is recruited, his secondary loyalty will shift from town to mafia, but his first loyalty remains with the masons, does it not?
Yeah, here we go:
Now, I’m not certain if this has been covered or not, but does our GM spill all relevant info to the mob after a successful recruitment? IOW, if a power role is recruited, does Gadarene inform the mafia of that power role, or is it left up to the player to volunteer that info? In most cases, the player would want to tell their new allies about their power role, but in the case of being a mason (with a victory condition seperate from the mafia) they might just want to claim to be vanilla, wouldn’t they?
