(emphasis added) 
You’ve got a point there. I lumped the Doctor and Nightwatcher scenarios together, because in my mind they are very similar (town won’t know anyhow, scum just will know they’ve been blocked somehow), but that description fits the dogooder’s scenario as well. And, as BlasterMaster pointed out, the probabilities of each event are quite different.
So: I hang my head in shame for having lumped together two scenarios that deserved each their only bullet point 
And I doubly hang my head in shame for writing “their **only **bullet point” when I meant “their **own **bullet point”
Interesting thought. I hadn’t considered giving the recruited player the option of disclosing his or her power role; that might be a fun wrinkle for a future game. But for this one, when (and if) a player is recruited, his or her true role will be disclosed to the Mafia.
And… now that I re-read my original commentary and Hal Briston’s question: you are right.
A mason most probably won’t reveal his fellow masonites if he/she is recruited, since his/her allegiance to the mason’s overrides the one to town…
Since no known power role player is among the living, the most likely scenario is that the doctor is protecting himself. Protecting anyone else is foolish, even if they are 99% certain another player is town, the doctor is 100% sure that the doctor is town…and since the doctor is a power role, protecting the doctor means the doctor can’t be killed. The doctor really only has a choice about who to protect later in the game when players have claimed roles and the doctor strongly suspects that the mafia will whack that one particular player. But since our detective is dead, the doctor has no reason to protect anyone except himself.
I’m going to have to disagree with you there. You stated “The worst option is in my mind a mason recruitment by the mafia”, but (assuming what I said earlier about Gadarene not informing the mob about recruited power roles) recruiting a mason is potentially destructive to the mafia, and therefore helpful to the town.
I mean, things would have to fall together just so for it to actually be helpful to the town, but the chance still exists. The recruitment of any other role really can’t give any potential benefit to the town.
NOTE: All possible “benefits” mentioned above would be slight indeed, and would just be in the mason’s pursuit of dicking over every non-mason, allegiance be damned.
And on that note, enough about the damned masons…a helluvalot has to happen for them to have any meaningful shot at winning this thing.
Aaaaand, on preview – never mind, you’ve already come around to my way of thinking. 
And that effectively shoots down a lot of what I said eariler anyway.
Never mind.
One last Mason question…
Am I alone in still not firmly understanding if a recruited Mason will absolutely roll over on the other Masons, or will s/he have a choice of whether or not to roll over?
Snipped.
Well, not really. But it just seemed everyone was always hard on getting Projammer out during the days. Not only on day one (some) but also day two and on day three everyone succeeded (well, who voted for him).
Now yeah, the mafia may gang up on one of their own just to look good or even let all the protown do their work for them (which may also have been the case) but I think the first is too risky (and therefore unlikely) and the second case would show he WOULD have been town.
So take that and apply it to Lightnin’. Really, both cases have been the same almost. Everyone, for the whole game, has been out to get his neck and voting for him Day one, two and three…and IF…IF, there is a huge bandwagon on this, day four, I’d seriously consider changing my vote if I were in your (or anyone else voting for him’s) shoes.
On the other hand, fluiddruid has SO many things stacked up against her. She was mentioned by the dectective. She voted (one of the last people) for Projammer. And even before all of this she was a shady character based on things I’ve and others pointed out. Just seems like she’s wayyyy on the radar than others at the moment (well, at least to me). I’ve voted for Lightnin’ back in day one, but changed it after a pile on started. Ever since then I’ve lost my suspicions of him. He still may be scum for all I know. I certainly don’t feel he’s town at all. He could be either. But I just have more main suspicions that, I think, should be more obvious to others too. shrugs but hey, I guess, in your mind, you just think he’s more suspicions. Still, if he turns out to have a bandwagon and then turns out to be protown…that won’t look good for you. You or anyone else. Especially in my eyes.
Ummm, let’s be straight here. I voted for Projammer in a two-man race where the other person was me.
Let’s say I was scum. Sure, it makes sense to vote for Projammer.
But let’s say I’m town. It still makes more sense to vote for Projammer and save myself, because I’m 100% sure I’m town, and I’m not 100% sure he is! This is especially true if I’m a power role!
Besides, you were ardently against me from the beginning, far before this “evidence” has been stacked up. And, soon enough, you’ll be accountable for that.
He or she will have a choice. It’ll be like this, basically:
Mafia Members X, Y, & Z: Gadarene, we would like to recruit A.
Gadarene to Mafia: <checks to make sure A isn’t a Do-Gooder> Okey-dokie.
Gadarene to A: Congratulations, you’ve been made. Here are the keys to the clubhouse. Go play nice with X, Y, & Z.
Gadarene to Mafia: Here’s your new recruit, A. He’s a mason. Isn’t he cute? You kids have fun!
And then A can tell the Mafia as much or as little as he wants.
Personally, if I were the Night Watchman, Doctor, or a Mason, I’d hope, if ANYTHING, to be killed accidently during a night vote. That way I couldn’t be recruited against my own team (if a recruitment still exists, that is, for the scum and last night wasn’t one).
Snipped.
Again, my past experience comes into play. I’ve hosted many, many games and I have to say here…MOST ALL OF THE TIME the Doctor (unless they know who the Detective is) protects themself.
And if you think about it, that’s not too shabby of a move. Especially if the detective is gone and we’re getting down to the nitty-gritty and there’s not a whole lot of players left. I know I’d be self protecting like crazy by now. Not unless there was an illrefutable, confirmed role or player that helped us out in some way.
Again, this is just from my insight based on experience in seeing what others do during my hosting of other games. This isn’t a role claim of any kind.
Okay, understood. You play far more conservatively than I do (or, maybe I play far more recklessly?). I’m of the mind that fluiddruid is pretty much a done deal for this day. If she’s town, the mafia will just sit back and let her get lynched, laughing at us. If she’s mafia, they know to stay away from trying to protect her because otherwise they’ll look suspicious. With that in mind, I want to use this as an opportunity to garner as much information from her death as possible.
Can we use this as an opportunity to catch more scum? How about to figure out who a likely target is tonight so the doctor can try to block?
So if she is scum, who goes along with her? Lightnin’ and CaerieD round out my top three; I’m quite sure that at least one of them is scum. At the same time, my likely town list is short and I want to see who else I can add.
Basically, if we’re quite sure fluiddruid is dead, why spend the whole day focusing on just her, when we can try to figure out if she’s part of a clique or voting bloc? If she is scum she’s going to try to monopolize the analysis and keep us from finding her fellow scum.
Please. No matter what the accused does, generally, we’ve suspected them. To one person, what seems an adequate to another will seem to another like being overly defensive; a lack of defense will seen by one as guilty or another as a sign that they are innocent.
Nobody who has been made a suspicious candidate - not Lightnin’ nor myself nor any of the previous lynchees - seem to be able to find ANY way of becoming “less suspicious”. Once the suspicion is there, people can see it in ANYTHING. Just like we saw in dnooman and projammer.
In the end, if you look at the way the game has been played, we have incorrectly lynched a townie every single night so far. And, each time, regardless of their defense (being very different each time), we have seen no pattern. People are defensive when rightly OR wrongly accused.
Not one person, once having racked up serious votes, has managed to become trusted or even be taken off the short list for future lynching, despite the town’s 100% failure rate on lynches.
What I’ve learned so far based on my poor voting record is that we need to start from scratch and start analyzing data. Can scum have tells? Absolutely. But I’m not confident at all that the usual suspects that keep getting batted around are the ones we need to suspect. If anything, we are lynching people based on convenient reasons, and people are deflecting suspicion away from themselves onto others whether they seem to be Town or Mafia.
This is a self-defeating strategy for Town. In short, we continue to lynch based on poor criteria. Even if we are lucky and lynch scum, it will have told us nothing!
Why are some players still using strategies that have failed every time they have been applied so far? We are being bamboozled into making poor logical decisions.
And yet projammer didn’t - he was a town power role and refused to vote for dnooman or you. Admittedly, that could simply be poor play, but its an interesting contrast.
That sounds almost threatening. Obviously, if you are town then Idle Thoughts and I (and possibly Blastermaster given the start of today) would be under suspicion. If you are scum, then I am sure the mafia will go after the people targeting you. Either way we are accountable.
By the way, I still have a list of questions (P1149) that would be useful for the town if you answered.
This is interesting. This is about the third time you’ve said this. That you don’t think recruitment happened. What makes you so sure? What are you basing it on? I’m curious. The only way you can even begin to know one way or the other (or have any strong leads, as it seems like you may have) is if you’re the Doctor, Night Watchman or Mafia. Cause then, if it’s a protown role, you know it wasn’t scum and if it was the scum, they know it wasn’t anyone for the town and the roles know it was either the other or the mafia.
I’m not suspicious of you for these outlooks, however I’m curious why you think it’s not possible that they could have recruited someone.
I’m sorry, I’m not understand your point here. What do you mean by “killed accidently”? Do you mean killed when they thought they really should have recruited?
Agreed (see my earlier post about it). I think the doctor should have been self-protecting, which means he gains no information if we assume it was a blocked kill, which is why I’m hoping the mafia is also unsure enough, with the Nightwatchman factor, that they aren’t sure they either hit the doctor or someone the doctor thought was worth protecting.
Still, especially if the doctor is one of the scummier looking people, figuring that he wouldn’t be targetted or recruited last night, thought he’d be safe in targetting another person. I guess we won’t know, but hopefully, the mafia is confused as well (though, notably less so, because they know whether they tried to recruit or kill last night).
To me, the main similarity between Lightnin’ and fluiddruid has been the last-minute vote shifts that saved them from hanging.
On day two, two confirmed townies were slated for elimination and, in the end, they were even.
So: on day two we know by now that the scum simply didn’t care who would hang. On day one and three, however, they might have changed their vote at the last minute (or might have thrown some additional ideas or something).
Lightnin’ has been the one who has brought less to the game, at least to this point. His only burst of participation came when the tide was turning against him. So, in my mind, he has tried to save himself by hiding as much as possible. And that, in my mind, makes him scum. Vote Lightnin’