Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler

The Game Room
1201

The way it happens is:

  1. 1Night Watchman submits a place (s)he’ll be patrolling
    1.2Mafia submits a person to lynch and where they’ll lynch
    or
    1.3Mafia submits a person to recruit
    2.1 Gadarene verifies the Night Watchman’s place to patrol against the Mafia’s kill-point. If they coincide, there’s no kill
    or
    2.2 Gadarene checks that the person to recruit isn’t a do-gooder and "recruits"that person and/or denies the recruitment

The Night Watchman doesn’t get informed whether (s)he stopped a killing or even whether there was an attempt to kill anyone.

It’s similar for the Doctor.

1202

… and that’s exactly the way to get lynched. If you contributed posts like for instance

you’ll at least show your ideas and your reasoning and may very well convince everyone to look at other posters.

And remember: if town wins, **even lynched citizens win **. And by that standard, any reasonable contribution may help your side to win after you have stopped participating in the game.

1203

My suspicions seem a lot less solid now that Projammer turned out to be town. I was fairly certain he was scum, and I let that help me form my suspicions of fluiddruid and CaerieD. I still think they are scum, but now I’m not sure I trust my instincts.

So far the Mafia have been very good at setting us up to lynch townies. They must have been positively giddy about the tie on Day 2, where either lynch would yield a dead townie, and probably a second the next day, which is exactly the way it went. I’ve been asking myself how much of a hand they had in that, and if most of them actually voted for one or the other. The way it played out it’s possible (and likely I think) that some of them just sat back and let it happen without direct intervention. I have to wonder the same thing about Day 1 and yesterday’s vote. If fluiddruid is scum I think they might have had to get the Projammer wagon rolling since fluiddruid seemed all but dead early in the day.

I’m not sure about Lightnin’. His actions yesterday did strike me as odd. He’d fallen down to the middle of my suspect list after his Day 1 scuminess. He did start to strike me as a frustrated townie, but I think he’s also dropped down my list just by keeping his head down, which isn’t a good thing. I’m starting to become a little more suspicious of him again, but not enough to act on it yet.

It seems we’re in a very bad situation, and getting close to where if we lynch a townie we loose. Here’s the two scenarios I find likely:

5 Mafia, haven’t recruited yet:
Day 4 (today): 10 town, 5 scum
– If we lynch town, and the Mafia kills someone:
Day 5: 8 town, 5 scum
– If we lynch town again, and they decide to recruit
Day 6: 6 town, 6 scum

At that point we would have to lynch scum the rest of the game or lose.

Now, if they recruited last night:
Day 4: 9 town, 6 scum
– We lynch town, and they kill
Day 5: 7 town, 6 scum
– We lynch town, and they kill
Day 6: 5 town, 6 scum, we loose

So if they recruited last night we can only be wrong once more and still win. If they were blocked from killing instead, we can be wrong two more times. It’s not looking good.

Based on the scenarios above I think it’s possible the scum decided to recruit last night hoping to win with two more town lynches instead of three, while the confusion level is still high. As I was reading Blaster Master’s rationale on why they wouldn’t have recruited I was agreeing, but I think we need to keep the possibility that they did in mind. At this point that only means being ready to distrust players we might have trusted before, which we were hopefully willing to do anyway. Also, if it does come down to it and we don’t see another obvious time that they would have recruited, I’ll be keeping an eye on Blaster Master since he’s been pushing the idea that there wasn’t any recruitment, and he seems to be one of the obvious targets for a recruitment last night. I do think it’s more likely that it was a block by either the Doctor or Night Watchman though.

I want to vote fluiddruid, but some of that is wanting to be right about her since I was wrong about Projammer, so I’m doubting my gut a little. I think we all need to look carefully at the fringe players. There’s scum there, and they may be easier to spot and be sure of than the more central ones. When I get a chance (hopefully tonight) to go back through the thread I’ll post what I find, but I’m less optimistic I’ll get it right than I was a couple days ago.

1204

You seem to know an awful lot about it. I was just assuming based on reasonable things. You seem to be pretty sure of yourself. So I don’t know whether to believe you’re A. The NW. B. Mafia or C. Just extremely well educated of how things are done by those roles and teams that you are not.

My estimation was just (snipped from above):

That if that was the case…the Night Watchman would know (or figure) that he/she was PROBABLY the saver. And that’s what I was saying in my initial post that started all of this off.

1205

I’m not sure I agree with this reasoning. Since the scum know who they are, they can easily cooperate. They just have to be careful about it. I think they have been doing it. A perfect example is fluiddruid; every vote she has cast has been for a now confirmed townie. Even if the two on the first day were lucky guesses she has know what she was doing otherwise.

1206

Clicking on the reply link to show who has posted in here and how much…I just noticed and realized that Rachm Qoch hasn’t been around for a very long time. Her last post was on the third, and last overall activity on the 4th.

1207

I take this to mean that if there was to be a murder, it would have taken place at the Village Green. This is important information, because if so, then the Night Watchman now has a very good likelihood of knowing if he blocked a kill last night…if he patrolled the Village Green. If this is the case, knowing there was no kill gives the Night Watchman some information, even if the rest of us didn’t. It’s possible that the doctor protected someone, or the scum recruited someone. But the coincidence of patrolling a place and having that place turn up safe is pretty good evidence to the Night Watchman that there was no recruitment last night. Like, 5 out of 6.

Obviously, only the Night Watchman has this crumb of information, if it even exists, and there’s no way I can see to communicate it to us without ending up first on the list for recruitement/death. So I’m not sure it’s of any use, but I thought I’d give the Night Watchman, whoever they are, a heads up.

1208

That is also what I was trying to point out to DiggitCamara. You put it so much better though.

1209

If you are a townie I understand your frustration, just as I do Projammer’s in hindsight. You’ve been marked from Day 1, and no amount of defending is going to put you back on the trusted lists. I do think a solid defense can put you on the unsure-of lists, though. You were near the top of my list during Day 1, and only having a better target ( :smack: ) kept me from voting for you. Through the little defense you’ve given you managed to get bumped down my list, but looking back, your lack of participation is moving you back up.

I don’t expect you to outright defend yourself much more, except from specific attacks. What I would like you do to, and how you can help the team (if town), is to keep posting any insight you have, who you suspect, etc. Be a useful, productive townie to the end. It’s this that will move you down some of our lists.

1210

Again: the Night Watchman posts a place (s)he’ll patrol every night. And, like the rest of us, get’s informed by Gadarene about the night’s results. So, (s)he won’t know if he saved someone, if the Doctor saved someone or if the Mafia recruited someone.

And as far as my knowledge is concerned, I

a) read the rules
b) read Gadarene’s posts

…rocket science it ain’t :stuck_out_tongue:

1211

I agree with this. But Lightning was imagining that the mafia can just gang up on innocent townies and lynch whoever they want. I don’t think that can be the case. Sure, they can tip a vote between two close candidates. But they can’t whip up a lynching all by themselves, because that’s way to obvious.

Or is it? Can someone look over the spreadsheet and see if there are any players who have voted for all three innocent townies in all three lynchings?

The only thing is, in the day 2 lynch we know for sure that there were two townies vying for the lynch. So we know for sure that there was no reason for any mafiosi to stick out their neck either way, no need to collaborate, no need to do anything, just hang back and not derail the bandwagon onto a third party.

1212

I haven’t looked at the spreadsheet yet.

But Lightnin’ voted for all three innocent townies…

1213

That would be the second time (third if you count the game’s start) Gadarene mentioned the village green at daybreak (see post #583). And, unless Gadarene is far scummier than we’ve accounted for, I take it to be the point where the villagers gather in the morning to count heads.

1214

Lemur866:

That isn’t my intention, although I sincerely apologize for not making it clear. As I thought I had stated in a previous post, when there is no kill, I give no information about where the kill might or might not have taken place. Instead, I default to the Village Green, which is where the townspeople met on Day One (and where they’ve been meeting every dawn, at least in my head). This is because I neither want to give bad information nor too much information. Let’s look at a couple of scenarios:

Scenario #1: The Night Watchman patrols location X, the Mafia kills at location Y, the Doctor blocks the kill. It makes no sense, narratively speaking, to set the stage at either location X or location Y, and it gives away far too much information to mention both places.

Scenario #2a: The Mafia kills at location Y, the Doctor blocks the kill, and the Night Watchman has already been killed.

Scenario #2b: The Mafia recruits instead of killing.

Again, it makes no sense to set the stage at location Y in Scenario #2a, particularly because it would be a dead giveaway that something recruitment-related happened in Scenario #2b if I provided a location in the former scenario but not the latter.

Scenario #3: The Mafia tries to recruit and fails. Where should I set the stage?

All in all, I decided (and again, I regret not making this absolutely clear) that “home base,” so to speak, was the Village Green, and that that would be where all dawns would start in the event, for whatever reason, of no kill. So I’m not saying one way or the other whether the Village Green was the scene of the attempted murder last night. Above all else, it’s the default. If people find that inordinately confusing, let me know.

1215

…Aaaand I see that DiggitCamara has managed to say it better and in far fewer words.

1216

I noticed that too, but I also noticed one of the night kills took place at the proverbial “bar” that we usually all sit around and gab at as we wait for Day to come. I guess this is what got me started in my line of thinking.

But thank you for clearing that up, Gadarene.

1217

Yeah, what I was thinking—and again, let me know if this is ridiculously complicated—is that if the Mafia successfully kill someone in a location, I set the next day’s stage with everyone discovering the body in that location. (This worked especially well in the Tavern, since all the townspeople—except the Night Watchman, at a crucial juncture—were presumably “there” already.) And if there’s no successful kill, I generically set the stage in the Village Green.

1218

OK, cool.

So the Night Watchman doesn’t have that extra crumb no matter what.

Thanks for the quick clear up.

1219

Yeah. If I’m Mafia, I’m certainly ballsy about it, aren’t I? :slight_smile:

It’s funny- we’ve got some people saying that Mafia would be stupid to leave such a visible trail, and then we’ve got other people saying that a visible trail should be enough to convict by.

Oh, and I have been contributing. I’m not voting people just because they feel “scummy” to me, or whatever- with every vote, I’ve listed my reasons. For example, my reasoning on Projammer was, as stated, because he claimed the one truly unfalsifiable power role, that of the Do-Gooder.

1220

That’s exactly the problem I’ve pointed out with your “defense”.

I know there are some who said that Mafia would be stupid to leave such a visible trail, and then we’ve got other people saying that a visible trail should be enough to convict by. However, you have yet to point out your own idea about it.

Additionally, in your case, you could have pointed out that the second kill vote was just coincidental (dnooman got offed by Random.org, remember?) And let me offer you my idea about it (if you were Mafia):

  1. Being Mafia it seemed a good vote (you were the first one to vote for him, after all)
  2. When you left to go to Canada you still thought it was a good vote. After all, he was by no means a sure lynch (and guess what: if you were Mafia, you would have been right about that!)
  3. When push came to shove or, if you will, when dnooman’s and projammer’s lynch votes tied up, you were incommunicado